Business Monitor International


Hungary Tourism Report

Published 16 May 2014

  • 59 pages
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$1,295.00
Hungary Tourism Report

BMI View: We believe that there is much to be positive about in Hungary's tourism industry over the coming years as the recovery in Europe boosts arrivals and encourages investment in the hotel sector to match. Long term problems such as the predominance of weekend breaks in Budapest can be overcome by focusing on niche markets such as health tourism and developing attractions outside of the capital.

Hungary is heavily reliant on tourists from European countries, particularly neighbouring states, arriving largely by road. As such the improvement in the European economic environment, and particular the improvement in Germany which is Hungary's largest source of arrivals, will have a strong positive impact on visitor numbers to Hungary. The strong Euro in relation to the forint should also encourage inbound travellers and we expect to see this reflected in the value of tourism and travel-related receipts in the country, which will surpass USD10bn by 2018.

We expect to see a steady increase in both domestic and outbound travel journeys, the latter almost all to European countries, in the period until 2018. This will largely be down to improved incomes in Hungary and a reduction in unemployment though the weak forint will reduce domestic spending power and may end up limiting outbound travel whilst it entices tourists in from abroad.

Budapest is a firmly established tourist destination and attracts the majority of visitors to the country but Hungary has a rich culture, many historic towns and natural assets along with the central region that has been relatively unexploited by the tourism industry. Greater investment in regional tourist attractions would deliver longer-term visits but this will require infrastructure improvements. Lake Balatan is the largest lake in Europe, for example, but efforts to build an airport servicing this attraction have run into problems with red tape and been shelved in recent years.

Hungary must invest in air travel capacity over the long...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Tourism
9
Political
11
Economic
12
Business Environment
13
Industry Forecast
15
Inbound Travel
16
Table: Hungary Inbound Tourism, 2011-2018
16
Table: Hungary Inbound Tourism, Top 10 Markets By Arrivals, 2011-2018 ('000)
18
Outbound Tourism
18
Table: Hungary Outbound Tourism, 2011-2018 ('000)
19
Table: Hungary Outbound Tourism, Top 10 Destinations By Departure, 2011-2018 ('000)
20
Travel
21
Table: Hungary Receipts For Tourism & Travel, 2011-2018
21
Table: Hungary Methods Of Travel, 2011-2018
22
Hotels
23
Table: Hungary Hotels & Restaurants Industry Value, 2011-2018
23
Table: Hungary Hotel Accommodation, 2011-2018
24
Industry Risk/Reward Ratings
26
Tourism Risk/Reward Ratings
26
Table: Central And Eastern Europe Tourism Risk/Reward Ratings
27
Security Risk/Reward Ratings
28
Table: Europe Security Risk Ratings
28
Market Overview
30
Table: Hungary Key Infrastructure Projects
31
Table: Global Top 10 Hotel Chains
32
Company Profile
35
Danubius Hotels Group
35
Global Industry Overview
37
Table: Global Arrivals
37
Table: Global Hotel Room Numbers
38
Global Assumptions
39
Table: Global Assumptions, 2013-2018
40
Table: Global And Regional Real GDP Growth, 2013-2016 (% change y-o-y)
41
Developed States
43
Table: Developed States, Real GDP Growth Forecasts, 2013-2016
43
Emerging Markets
45
Table: Emerging Markets, Real GDP Growth Forecasts, 2013-2016
46
Table: BMI Versus Bloomberg Consensus Real GDP Growth Forecasts, 2014 And 2015 (%)
47
Demographic Forecast
48
Table: Hungary's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
49
Table: Hungary's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
50
Table: Hungary's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
51
Table: Hungary's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
51
Methodology
52
Industry Forecast Methodology
52
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
53
Table: Weighting Of Indicators
55

The Hungary Tourism Report has been researched at source and features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s independent assessment and forecasts for tourist expenditure; government expenditure on tourism; passenger arrivals and departures by mode of transport, reason for travel, origin and destination; and the accommodation market.

BMI's Hungary Tourism Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Hungarian tourism industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent tourism industry forecasts for Hungary to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the Hungarian tourism market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Hungarian tourism sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Hungary.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. KPIs and latest activity).

Coverage

BMI Industry View

This contains a synopsis of our forecasts, and any changes, together with an overview of key trends and developments in the tourism industry, and an assessment of the impact of various economic and national factors which might affect the sector. It also covers new transport projects, new hotel developments, and acquisitions.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the tourism sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI Industry Forecast Scenario

Forecasts to end-2018 for all key indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts:

Inbound tourism: Arrivals (‘000), arrivals growth (% y-o-y), arrivals by region, growth (% y-o-y), arrivals by country, growth (% y-o-y), top 10 countries based on arrivals, growth (% y-o-y).

Outbound tourism: Departures (‘000), growth (% y-o-y), departures by regional destination (‘000 and growth % y-o-y).

Travel: Methods of travel for arrivals (Air, Ship, Rail), (‘000) and (% growth y-o-y), international Tourism receipts for transport (US$bn), (growth % y-o-y), international Tourism receipts for travel items (US$bn), (growth % y-o-y).

Hotels: Hotel industry value (US$bn), (growth % y-o-y), (%GDP), (per capita), (per employee), number of hotels and like establishments (‘000), (growth % y-o-y), total overnight stays, (‘000), (growth % y-o-y), length of stay, occupancy rate (%), number of hotel rooms, (‘000), (growth % y-o-y).

Industry Risk Reward Rankings

BMI’s Tourism Industry Risk Reward Rankings provide a country-comparative Risk Reward Rankings index aimed at investors (tour operators, tourism infrastructure investors, financial institutions) in the regional tourism market.

The rankings methodology makes sophisticated use of over 40 industry, economic and demographic data points.

We also have Security Risk Reward Rankings which provide a detailed assessment of possible threats to the country (and by extenuation to the tourism industry), ranging from economic and political upheaval, to terrorist attacks and organised crime levels.

Market Overview

This contains a comprehensive overview of the tourism industry in the country, its overall value, the value of its hotels industry, trends in the hotels industry and any new developments. It also contains an evaluation of the top 10 global hotel groups’ presence in the country, which brands are present in which cities, the number of hotels and any planned developments and strategies. The Market Overview also considers the tourism infrastructure developments in the country, in particular transport infrastructure projects such as ports and airports. Tables are also included from our regularly updated Key Projects Database, which contain details of projects, their value, the time frame, their current status, the companies involved and their estimated completion dates.

Company Profiles

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape.

The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc