Business Monitor International


Hungary Power Report

Published 17 September 2014

  • 57 pages
  • Instant access to your report online and PDF format through your account library
  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
 
$1,295.00
Hungary Power Report

BMI View: Power generation will rise by steadily over the ten-year forecast period, from 35.4 TWh in 2014 to 38.4TWh by 2023. Thermal energy will remain the single largest component in Hungary ' s power mix, and an expansion in of gas-fired electricity will constitute most of the expected rise in output. Meanwhile, consumption of power will rise by an average of 1.3% a year over the next decade, underpinned by a steady growth in the construction sector. The major background development will be massive investment in the Paks nuclear power station which will significantly expand production of nuclear power just beyond the ten-year forecast period to 2023 .

Key Trends And Developments

  • The government is continuing its policy of imposing administered cuts in the price of electricity. Following a 20% fall it 2013, a further cut of 5.7% is planned for September 2014. The brunt of these price reductions is being borne by energy providers, which are seeing their profitability fall as a result. Longer term, the state-owned energy holding company MVM intends to start selling power on a non-profit basis to force its major private competitors to maintain low prices.

  • Plans are evolving for a significant expansion of Hungary's nuclear capacity. Following the signing of a deal in January with the Russian firm Rosatom to double the capacity of the Paks power plant from 2,000 to 4,000MW, parliament has approved a financing scheme whereby the Russian state will provide a loan of EUR10bn to cover 80% of the cost. However, the European Commission may mount a challenge to the legality of the contract since the government did not put the scheme out to public tender.

  • Generation of gas-fired power continues to expand. In June, the Swiss based MET Power was given approval by Hungarian officials to acquire a minority stake in the Dunamenti power plant, a first step towards obtaining a majority stake in the operation and a probable increase in investment.

  • For the moment,...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
8
Industry Forecast
10
Hungary Snapshot
10
Table: Country Snapshot: Economic and Demographic Data (Hungary 2013-2018)
10
Table: Country Snapshot: Economic and Demographic Data (Hungary 2018-2023)
10
Table: Country Snapshot: Power Sector
10
Hungary Power Forecast Scenario
11
Electricity Generation and Power Generating Capacity (Hungary 2012-2017)
11
Table: Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts (Hungary 2012-2017)
11
Table: Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts (Hungary 2018-2023)
12
Table: Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts (Hungary 2012-2017)
14
Table: Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts (Hungary 2018-2023)
15
Electricity Consumption
19
Table: Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts (Hungary 2012-2017)
19
Table: Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts (Hungary 2018-2023)
19
Transmission & Distribution, Imports & Exports
21
Table: Electric Power T&D Losses Data And Forecasts (Hungary 2012-2017)
21
Table: Electric Power T&D Losses Data And Forecasts (Hungary 2018-2023)
21
Table: Trade Data And Forecasts (Hungary 2012-2017)
21
Table: Trade Data And Forecasts (Hungary 2018-2023)
21
Industry Risk/Reward Ratings
22
CEE Power Risk/Reward Ratings
22
Table: Regional Overview
27
Hungary Power Risk/Reward Ratings
28
Rewards
28
Risks
28
Market Overview
30
Key Policies And Market Structure
30
Regulation and Competition
30
Pricing
31
Table: Electricity Prices In the EU Member States, As Of May 2013
32
Hungary Power Projects Database
33
Table: Hungary Key Power Projects
33
Competitive Landscape
34
MVM
34
MAVIR
34
MOL
35
EdF
35
E
35
RWE
36
Electrabel
36
Company Profile
37
MVM
37
Regional Overview
41
CEE Power Regional Overview
41
Glossary
48
Table: Glossary Of Terms
48
Methodology
49
Methodology And Sources
49
Industry Forecast Methodology
49
Sources
52
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
52
Table: Power Risk/Reward Rating Indicators
53
Table: Weighting Of Indicators
55

The Hungary Power Report features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s market assessment and independent forecasts covering electricity generation (coal, gas, oil, nuclear, hydro and non-hydro renewables), electricity consumption, trade, transmission and distribution losses and electricity generating capacity.

The Hungary Power Report also analyses the impact of regulatory changes, recent developments and the background macroeconomic outlook and features competitive landscapes comparing national and multinational operators by sales, market share, investments, projects, partners and expansion strategies.

Key Benefits

  • Use BMI's independent industry forecasts for Hungary to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic planning in the power market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks Hungary's power sector through our reviews of latest power industry trends, regulatory changes, and major deals, projects and investments in Hungary
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Competitive Landscape analysis.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis, covering power markets, regulatory changes, major investments, projects and company developments.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the power sector, and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

Regional Overview

The Regional Overview provides a comparative context from within which one can assess the relative profitability of the power industry in a given country, incorporating BMI's country risk macro forecasts into our regional analysis. They also detail any relevant issues or events that might cause market fluctuations, as well as evaluate the impact of existing power infrastructure and fresh investments on the regional market.

BMI Industry Forecasts

The Industry Forecasts provide historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for electricity generation (TWh) and electricity generating capacity (MW) for each individual power segment present in the country. These forecasts are in turn supported by explicit assumptions, in conjunction with analysis of the key risks to the main forecast. These in turn are broken down into:

Electricity Generation forecasts for Thermal, Coal, Gas, Oil, Nuclear, Hydro and Non-Hydro Renewables. For this section, we provide information on electricity generation (TWh), % growth year-on-year, KWh per capita, and the % of total electricity generation. The thermal fuels (coal, gas and oil) also have figures for their % of total thermal electricity generation.

Electricity Generating Capacity offers forecasts for the potential net capacity and net capacity growth % change year-on-year for the whole power industry. It also includes individual forecasts for capacity (MW), capacity growth % change year-on-year, and % of total capacity for Thermal, Nuclear, Hydro and Non-Hydro Renewables.

The section also includes historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for:

Electricity Consumption, encompassing information on net consumption (TWh), net consumption growth % change year-on-year, and net consumption per capita (KWh).

Transmission And Distribution Losses, comprising predictions on Electric Power Transmission And Distribution Losses, (TWh), and Electric Power Transmission And Distribution Losses, % of Output.

Electricity Trade, offering historical figures for imports and exports and forecasts for net imports (TWh).

Market Overview

This section provides an overview of the industry landscape and key players; assessment of the business operating environment and the latest regulatory developments.

Risk/Reward Rankings

BMI's Power Risk/reward Rankings provide fully comparable rankings aimed at investors (power companies, services companies and equity investors) in the regional power market. The rankings methodology makes sophisticated use of various industry, economic and demographic data points and is part of BMI's integrated Country Risk-Industry Rankings products.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc