Business Monitor International


Hungary Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report

Published 12 February 2014

  • 112 pages
  • Instant access to your report online and PDF format through your account library
  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
 
$1,295.00
Hungary Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report

BMI View: We expect 2014 to be yet another challenging year for the industry, as a harsh business environment and regulatory burden weigh on market growth . Pricing pressures and slow uptake of new medicines will continue to present near-term headwinds to pharmaceutical sales. We anticipate growth will return to the market over the long term, albeit gradually.

Headline Expenditure Projections

  • Pharmaceuticals: HUF566.71bn (US$2.53bn) in 2013 to HUF570.95bn (US$2.52bn) in 2013; +0.7% in local currency terms and -0.4% in US dollar terms.

  • Healthcare: HUF2,141bn (US$9.55bn) in 2013 to HUF2,087 (US$9.20bn) in 2014; -2.5% in local currency terms and -3.6% in US dollar terms.

Risk/Reward Rating: Our proprietary Risk/Reward assessment tool has been gradually adjusted to be increasingly transparent and sensitive to potential Rewards. Therefore, as its market opportunities have been constrained, Hungary has slipped down the regional table, and currently ranks eighth out of the 20 regional markets profiled in the Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) region. For Q214, its ranking has risen by one position from ninth to eighth due to our expectation for moderate improvements in the pharmaceutical market. While its Risks profile is generally predictable, its Rewards have worsened over the past years, and we envisage slow but gradual change in the long term.

Key Trends & Developments

  • A draft ordinance by the Ministry of Human Resources is set to ease the blind-bidding auction rules for establishing reimbursement, allowing more loose drug prices with respect to the reference prices set by the Ministry of Health.

  • A new law passed in December 2013 by the Hungarian parliament allows the OEP to grant beneficiary status to drugs that significantly improve outcomes and are irreplaceable.

  • According to local press reports from October 2013, Hungarian hospitals are suffering from chronic shortage of anesthesiologists and surgeons due to a HUF60bn (US$274.18mn) deficit in the...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Political
11
Economic
12
Business Environment
13
Industry Forecast
15
Pharmaceutical Market Forecast
15
Table: Hungary Pharmaceutical Sales, Historical Data and Forecasts
16
Healthcare Market Forecast
17
Table: Hungary Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data and Forecasts
18
Table: Hungary Government Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data and Forecasts
18
Table: Hungary Private Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data and Forecasts
19
Prescription Drug Market Forecast
20
Table: Hungary Prescription Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data and Forecasts
21
Patented Drug Market Forecast
22
Table: Hungary Patented Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data and Forecasts
23
Generic Drug Market Forecast
24
Table: Hungary Generic Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data and Forecasts
25
OTC Medicine Market Forecast
26
Table: Hungary Over-The-Counter (OTC) Medicine Market Indicators, Historical Data and Forecasts
27
Pharmaceutical Trade Forecast
28
Table: Hungary Pharmaceutical Trade Data And Forecasts (US$mn)
30
Table: Hungary Pharmaceutical Trade Data And Forecasts (HUFmn)
30
Other Healthcare Data Forecasts
31
Key Risks to BMI's Forecast Scenario
31
Macroeconomic Forecasts
33
Economic Activity
33
Table: Hungary - Economic Activity
38
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
39
Central And Eastern Europe Risk/Reward Ratings
39
Hungary Risk/Reward Ratings
45
Rewards
45
Risks
45
Market Overview
47
Industry Trends And Developments
48
Epidemiology
48
Communicable Disease
49
Healthcare System
50
Healthcare Funding
51
Medical Tourism
53
Research and Development (R&D)
53
Clinical Trials
54
Regulatory Development
55
Pharmaceutical Advertising
56
Intellectual Property Regime
57
Pricing Regime
59
Pharmaceutical Mark-ups
61
Table: Hungary - Pharmaceutical Price Build-Up (%)
61
Reimbursement Regime
61
Pricing and Reimbursement Amendments
63
Table: Additional Savings Outlined in Sz-ll K-lm-n 2
64
Hospital Procurement
65
Competitive Landscape
67
Company Profile
73
Gedeon Richter
73
Egis Pharmaceuticals (Servier)
77
Pfizer
81
Novartis
83
Sanofi
85
GlaxoSmithKline
87
Merck & Co
89
Eli Lilly
91
Teva
93
Demographic Forecast
96
Table: Hungary's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
97
Table: Hungary's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
98
Table: Hungary's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
99
Table: Hungary's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
99
Glossary
100
Methodology
102
Pharmaceutical Expenditure Forecast Model
102
Healthcare Expenditure Forecast Model
102
Notes On Methodology
103
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
104
Ratings Overview
105
Table: Pharmaceutical Risk/Reward Ratings Indicators
105
Indicator Weightings
106

The Hungary Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s forecasts for drugs and healthcare expenditure and imports and exports, focusing on the growth outlook for the prescription, OTC, patented drugs and generics market segments.

BMI's Hungary Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report provides industry professionals, strategists, company executives, investors, analysts and sales/marketing heads with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Hungarian pharmaceutical and healthcare industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent pharmaceutical and healthcare industry forecasts for Hungary to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Hungarian pharmaceutical and healthcare market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Hungarian pharmaceutical and healthcare sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Hungary.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and Competitive Landscape Tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View & Industry SWOT

An at-a-glance perspective on latest regulatory developments, key forecast indicators and major corporate developments, covering the prescription, OTC and generics markets. The SWOT outlines strategic factors which affect BMI's forecast analysis, and taken together with BMI's political, economic and business environment SWOTS, it gives a complete overview of market climate.

Market Summary

Snapshot of key market characteristics, including total size of pharmaceuticals and healthcare segments, growth drivers, leading therapeutic areas and the competitive landscape.

Regulatory Regime

Details of the industry regulatory framework and key legislation covering the licensing of new products/services, pricing and reimbursements, intellectual property, taxation and advertising, as well as an analysis of the overall regulatory burden.

Industry Developments

Focus on government healthcare reforms, epidemiological trends, company M&As, product launches, market entries, FDI activity, R&D, biotechnology, clinical trials and supply chain issues.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry indicators (see list below) supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:

Healthcare: Total healthcare expenditure (US$bn), healthcare expenditure (% of GDP), healthcare expenditure per capita (US$), hospital beds (per `000 population), doctors (per `000 population), birth and mortality rate (per `000 population)

Pharmaceutical market: Drug expenditure (US$bn), drug expenditure (% of GDP), drug expenditure per capita (US$)

Patented drug market: Prescription drug sales (US$bn), prescription sales (% of total sales), sales broken down by 14 therapeutic areas (cardiovascular, anti-infectives etc.)

Generic drug market: Generic product sales (US$bn), generic sales (% of total sales)

OTC drug market: OTC sales (US$bn), OTC sales (% of total sales), sales broken down by product types (analgesics, skin treatments, vitamins and minerals etc.)

Medical Devices: Medical device sales (US$bn), medical device sales (% of total healthcare market)

Macroeconomic Forecasts: Nominal and real GDP, % real GDP growth, % private consumption growth, % industrial output growth, % consumer price index, % GDP price deflator, exports, imports, trade balance, current account balance, foreign direct investment, exchange rate against US$, government expenditure, external debt.

Competitive Landscape

The competitive landscape section provides comparative company analyses and rankings by US$ sales and % share of total sales - for the total pharmaceutical sector, as well as the OTC, generics, and distribution sub-sectors.

Company Profiles

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc