Business Monitor International


Hungary Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report

Published 12 November 2014

  • 105 pages
  • Instant access to your report online and PDF format through your account library
  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
 
$1,295.00
Hungary Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report

BMI View:   We expect the decline in Hungary's pharmaceutical market to stabilise in 2015 , although a   challenging   operating environment and regulatory burden will weigh on market growth . Our country risk team also see s potential headwinds to spending growth, namely Hungary's excessive government deficits and a German economic slowdown that will reverberate throughout the Central and Eastern European region . Pricing pressures and slow uptake of new medicines will continue to present near-term headwinds to pharmaceutical sales, as will patent expiries.

Headline Expenditure Projections

  • Pharmaceuticals: HUF566.71bn (USD2.53bn) in 2013 to HUF579.14bn (USD2.46bn) in 2014; +2.2% in local currency terms and -3.1% in US dollar terms.

  • Healthcare: HUF2,201bn (USD9.84bn) in 2013 to HUF2,145bn (USD9.10bn) in 2014; -2.5% in local currency terms and -7.6% in US dollar terms.

Risk/Reward Index

Our proprietary Risk/Reward assessment tool has been gradually adjusted to be increasingly transparent and sensitive in relation to potential Rewards. Therefore, as its market opportunities become constrained, Hungary has slipped down the regional table, currently ranking tenth out of the 20 regional markets profiled in the Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) region, with a score of 51.2. While its Risks profile is generally predictable, Hungary's Rewards score continues to reflect its challenging pharmaceutical market outlook.

Key Trends & Developments

  • The fallout from the Ukraine crisis and cooling relations between Russia and the West have had an impact on Hungarian pharmaceutical manufacturers such as Egis and Gedeon  Richter, with exports to those two key markets declining markedly.

  • Rules by the Hungarian government forcing pharmacists to take equity stakes in their businesses were investigated by the EU Commission for potentially breaching the principles of freedom of establishment and freedom of movement of capital.

  • Sales of OTC medicines in H114...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Political
10
Economic
11
Business Environment
12
Industry Forecast
14
Table: Hungary's Petrochemical Industry, 2011-2018 ('000tpa, unless otherwise stated)
17
Macroeconomic Forecasts
18
Table: Hungary Economic Activity
25
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
26
Europe Petrochemicals Risk/Reward Ratings
26
Table: European Petrochemicals Risk/Reward Ratings (Scores Out Of 100)
30
Hungary Petrochemicals Risk/Reward Ratings
31
Market Overview
32
Industry Trends And Developments
35
Upstream
35
Downstream
36
Company Profile
37
BorsodChem
37
Magyar Olaj--s G-zipari (MOL)
40
Regional Overview
44
Europe Overview
44
Regulatory Concerns Add To Competitiveness Issues
44
Declining Capacities
45
Table: European Cracker Capacities, 2013
51
Global Industry Overview
55
Table: Top 10 Ethylene Producers, 2013
58
Latin America: The Main Loser In US Expansion Drive
59
Asia: New Growth Markets Fuel Global Demand
60
Challenges For The Arabian Gulf
61
Russia And CIS: Coming To The Fore
61
Gasoline
63
Table: BMI Gasoline Price Forecast, 2012-2018
63
Weak Q114 For Gasoline
64
Europe And The US: Competitive Market To Limit Summer Gains
65
Asia: Market Rebalancing To Better Support Market
68
Risks To Outlook
71
Diesel
71
Table: BMI Crude Oil And Diesel Price Forecast (USD/bbl)
72
New York's One-Off Heat Up
72
NY: Short-Term Diesel Price Support Expected
75
Rotterdam: Green Policies Drive Diesel Forward
79
Singapore: Diesel Support With Power Risks
81
Risks To Outlook
85
Jet Fuel
86
Table: BMI Crude Oil & Jet Fuel Price Forecast, USD/bbl
86
Better Outlook Tames Price Fall
86
Table: Total Air Freight And Passenger Volume Growth
88
Risks To Outlook
91
Bunker Fuel
92
Table: BMI Crude Oil & Bunker Fuel Price Forecast (USD/bbl)
92
The Storm Clears For Shipping
93
(Slightly) Better Times For Bunker Prices
95
Long-Term Threats Linger
96
Pressing Rotterdam & New York Harder
98
Risks To Outlook
98
Demographic Forecast
100
Demographic Outlook
100
Table: Hungary's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
101
Table: Hungary's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
102
Table: Hungary's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
103
Table: Hungary's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
103
Glossary
104
Table: Glossary Of Petrochemicals Terms
104
Methodology
105
Industry Forecast Methodology
105
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
107
Table: Petrochemicals Risk/Reward Rating Indicators
108
Table: Weighting Of Indicators
109

The Hungary Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s forecasts for drugs and healthcare expenditure and imports and exports, focusing on the growth outlook for the prescription, OTC, patented drugs and generics market segments.

BMI's Hungary Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report provides industry professionals, strategists, company executives, investors, analysts and sales/marketing heads with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Hungary pharmaceutical and healthcare industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's pharmaceutical and healthcare market forecasts for Hungary, to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Hungarian pharmaceutical and healthcare market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Hungarian pharmaceutical and healthcare sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Hungary.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors using our company profiles (including SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and competitive landscape tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

An at-a-glance perspective on the latest regulatory developments, key forecast indicators and major corporate developments, covering the prescription, OTC and generics markets. The pharmaceuticals and healthcare SWOT outlines strategic factors that affect the basic assumptions underpinning BMI’s forecast analysis, and taken together with BMI’s political, economic and business environment SWOTs, it gives a complete overview of market climate.

BMI Industry Forecast Scenario

Industry forecasts to end-2019 for all key indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts:

  • Healthcare: Total healthcare expenditure (USDbn), healthcare expenditure (% of GDP), healthcare expenditure per capita (USD), hospital beds, doctors, and birth & mortality rates (all per ‘000 population).
  • Pharmaceutical Market: Drug expenditure in USDbn, % of GDP and per capita (USD).
  • Patented Drug Market: Prescription drug sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
  • Generic Drug Market: Generic product sales (USDbn), generic sales (% of total sales).
  • OTC Drug Market: OTC sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
  • Macroeconomic Forecasts: Nominal and real GDP, % real GDP growth, % private consumption growth, % industrial output growth, % consumer price index, % GDP price deflator, exports, imports, trade balance, current account balance, foreign direct investment, exchange rate against USD, government expenditure and external debt.

BMI’s Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Index provides investors (both national and multinational) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of the market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.

Market Summary

A snapshot of key market characteristics, including total size of the pharmaceuticals and healthcare segments, growth drivers, leading therapeutic areas and the competitive landscape

Industry Developments

A focus on government healthcare reforms, epidemiological trends, mergers and acquisitions, product launches, market entries, FDI activity, R&D, biotechnology, clinical trials and supply chain issues.

Regulatory Regime

Details of the industry regulatory framework and key legislation covering the licensing of new products/services, pricing and reimbursements, intellectual property, taxation and advertising, as well as analysis of the overall regulatory burden.

Competitive Landscape

The competitive landscape section provides comparative company analyses and index by USD sales and % share of total sales – for the total pharmaceutical sector, as well as the OTC, generics and distribution sub-sectors.

Company Profiles*

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc