Business Monitor International


Hungary Oil & Gas Report

Published 26 September 2014

  • 98 pages
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  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
 
$1,295.00
Hungary Oil & Gas Report

BMI View:  Long known for a good above ground risk profile and meagre below ground prospects, Hungary says it may need to scramble to bolster petroleum reserves due to its near complete reliance on Russia in light of the widening economic aftershocks of the Russia -Ukraine situation

Headline Forecasts (Hungary 2012-2018)
  2012e 2013e 2014f 2015f 2016f 2017f 2018f
Crude, NGPL & other liquids prod, 000b/d 23.1 22.3 21.6 20.9 20.2 19.6 19.0
Refined products production & ethanol, 000b/d 179.3 180.1 181.0 182.0 182.9 183.8 184.7
Refined products consumption & ethanol, 000b/d 134.9 132.0 133.0 134.5 135.8 137.6 139.3
Dry natural gas production, bcm 2.5 2.3 2.2 2.1 2.0 2.0 1.9
Dry natural gas consumption, bcm 10.4 10.2 10.0 9.9 9.7 9.6 9.5
e/f = BMI estimate/forecast; Source: EIA, BMI

Click here to explore data

The main trends and developments for Hungary's oil & gas sector are

  • In July 2013, Falcon Oil & Gas completed announced a gas show in the first well of an agreed three-well drilling exploration programme with Serbia's  NIS (owned 56% by Gazprom), to target the Algyö Play. Testing of the well began in November 2013, with the second and third wells planned to be completed by Q4 2014. Explorer Ascent Resources has estimated that around 50% of the tight gas in the Petisovci-Lovaszi area (on the Hungary/Slovenia border) can be recovered. Proven and probable reserves are almost 12bn cubic metres (bcm). However, while prospects remain good, Ascent restructured in 2013, selling its stake to PetroHungaria.

  • Gas consumption and production are both on the downward slope. We forecast domestic production of 2.1 bcm in 2015 and consumption continuing its precipitous fall to arrive at 9.9 bcm. An enfeebled economy causes us to forecast continued declines in demand though 2018 when gas consumption will bottom out at...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
Table: Headline Forecasts (Hungary 2012-2018)
7
SWOT
9
Oil & Gas SWOT
9
Industry Forecast
11
Upstream Exploration
11
Table: Proven Oil and Gas Reserves (Hungary 2012-2017)
11
Table: Proven Oil and Gas Reserves (Hungary 2018-2023)
11
Upstream Projects
14
Table: Hungary - Main Upstream Projects
14
Upstream Production - Oil
14
Table: Oil Production (Hungary 2012-2017)
14
Table: Oil Production (Hungary 2018-2023)
14
Upstream Production - Gas
17
Table: Gas Production (Hungary 2012-2017)
17
Table: Gas Production (Hungary 2018-2023)
17
Refining
19
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Hungary 2012-2017)
19
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Hungary 2018-2023)
19
Refined Fuels Consumption
22
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Hungary 2012-2017)
22
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Hungary 2018-2023)
22
Gas Consumption
24
Table: Gas Consumption (Hungary 2012-2017)
24
Table: Gas Consumption (Hungary 2018-2023)
24
Trade - Oil
27
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Hungary 2012-2017)
27
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Hungary 2018-2023)
27
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Hungary 2012-2017)
28
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Hungary 2018-2023)
29
Table: Total Net Oil Exports - Crude and Products (Hungary 2012-2017)
30
Table: Total Net Oil Exports - Crude and Products (Hungary 2018-2023)
30
Trade - Gas (Pipeline and LNG)
31
Table: Gas Net Exports (Hungary 2012-2017)
31
Table: Gas Net Exports (Hungary 2018-2023)
31
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
34
Central And Eastern Europe - Risk/Reward Ratings
34
Table: Central And Eastern Europe Risk/Reward Ratings
35
Caspian Retains Upstream Ratings Lead
35
Russia: Large Resource Base, But Limited Supportive Policy
38
Regional Minnows Breaking Through
39
Table: CEE Upstream Risk/Reward Rating
40
Little Change In Downstream Rankings
40
Table: CEE Downstream Risk/Reward Ratings
42
Hungary - Risk/Reward Ratings
43
Hungary Upstream Rating - Overview
43
Hungary Upstream Rating - Rewards
43
Hungary Upstream Rating - Risks
44
Hungary Downstream Rating - Overview
44
Market Overview
45
Hungary Energy Market Overview
45
Oil And Gas Infrastructure
47
Oil Refineries
47
Table: Refineries In Hungary
47
Service Stations
48
Oil Storage Facilities
48
Oil Pipelines
48
Gas Storage Facilities
48
Gas Pipelines
49
Competitive Landscape
53
Competitive Landscape Summary
53
Table: Key Players - Hungary Oil And Gas Sector
54
Table: Key Upstream Player
54
Table: Key Downstream Players
54
Company Profile
55
Magyar Olaj--s G-zipari Nyrt (MOL)
55
Shell Hungary
62
OMV Hungary
64
Agip Hungaria
66
Other Summaries
68
Regional Overview
70
Central And Eastern Europe - Regional Overview
70
CEE Oil Production - Russia Dominates, Caspian Output To Grow
70
CEE Oil Consumption - Regional Demand Outpacing Supply
71
CEE Refining Capacity - Few Bright Spots
72
CEE Natural Gas Production - Caspian Firing Up China
73
CEE Gas Consumption - New Gas Mainly Exported
74
Global Industry Overview
76
Global Energy Market Overview
76
Appendix
82
Global - Crude Oil, Refined Fuels And Natural Gas Prices, 10-year Forecasts
82
Table: Energy Price Forecasts, 2012-2017
82
Table: Energy Price Forecasts, 2018-2023
83
Central And Eastern Europe - Regional Appendix
85
Table: Oil Consumption - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 ('000b/d)
85
Table: Oil Consumption - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 ('000b/d)
86
Table: Oil Production - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 ('000b/d)
86
Table: Oil Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 ('000b/d)
87
Table: Refining Capacity - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 ('000b/d)
88
Table: Refining Capacity - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 ('000b/d)
89
Table: Gas Consumption - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 (bcm)
89
Table: Gas Consumption - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 (bcm)
90
Table: Gas Production - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 (bcm)
91
Table: Gas Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 (bcm)
92
Table: LNG Exports - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 (bcm)
92
Table: Net LNG Exports - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 (bcm)
93
Hungary - Total Hydrocarbons - 10-year Forecasts
94
Table: Total Hydrocarbons Production, Consumption and Net Exports (Hungary 2012-2017)
94
Table: Total Hydrocarbons Production, Consumption and Net Exports (Hungary 2018-2023)
94
Hungary - Refined Products Breakdown, 10-year Forecasts
95
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Production Breakdown (Hungary 2012-2017)
95
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Production Breakdown (Hungary 2018-2023)
96
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Consumption Breakdown (Hungary 2012-2017)
97
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Consumption Breakdown (Hungary 2018-2023)
98
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Net Exports Breakdown (Hungary 2012-2017)
99
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Net Exports Breakdown (Hungary 2018-2023)
100
Glossary
102
Table: Glossary Of Terms
102
Methodology
104
Industry Forecast Methodology
104
Source
106
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
106
Table: Bmi's Oil & Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Ratings
108
Table: Weighting
109

The Hungary Oil & Gas Report has been researched at source and features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s independent forecasts for Hungary including major indicators for oil, gas and LNG, covering all major indicators including reserves, production, consumption, refining capacity, prices, export volumes and values. The report includes full analysis of industry trends and prospects, national and multinational companies and changes in the regulatory environment.

BMI's Hungary Oil & Gas Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Hungarian oil and gas industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent oil and gas industry forecasts for Hungary to test consensus views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Hungarian oil and gas market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Hungarian oil and gas sector through reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Hungary.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and Competitive Landscape Tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI's key forecasts and industry analysis, covering oil and gas reserves, supply, demand and refining, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.

Regional Overview

Regional perspective on size and value of industry sector; comparative rankings by production, refining, imports and exports of oil, gas and LNG.

Business Environment Rankings

BMI's Oil and Gas Business Environment Rankings provide a country-comparative Risk-Reward Rankings index aimed at investors (independents, NOCs, IOCs and oil services companies) in the upstream and downstream markets.

The rankings methodology makes sophisticated use of more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points and is part of BMI's integrated Country Risk-Industry Rankings products.

Oil Market Outlook and Oil Products Outlook

Based on our country coverage of over 99% of global oil and gas production and consumption, BMI provides demand, supply and price forecasts to end-2018 for oil, gas and oil products

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:

Pricing: Oil price (US$/bbl, WTI, Brent, OPEC basket, Urals); Oil products prices (unleaded gasoline, gasoil/diesel, jet/kerosene - US$/bbl) at global hubs

Production, Consumption, Capacity and Reserves: Proven oil reserves (bn barrels), production, consumption, refinery capacity and throughputs (`000b/d); Proven gas reserves (tcm), production and consumption (bcm)

Imports and Exports: Oil exports/imports (`000b/d), value of oil exports/imports (US$mn - BMI base case); Value of oil exports at constant US$50/bbl and constant US$100/bbl (US$mn); Gas exports/imports (bcm), Value of gas exports/imports (US$mn); Value of gas exports/imports at constant US$50/bbl and US$100/bbl (US$mn); Value of petroleum exports/imports (US$mn); Value of petroleum exports/imports at constant US$50/bbl and US$100/bbl (US$mn)

BMI Macroeconomic Forecasts

BMI forecasts to end-2018 for all headline macroeconomic indicators, including real GDP growth, inflation, fiscal balance, trade balance, current account and external debt.

Competitive Landscape

Comparative company analyses by US$ sales, % share of total sales, number of employees, year established, ownership structure, oil production ('000b/d), gas production (bcm), downstream capacity ('000b/d) and % market share.

Company Profiles

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc