Business Monitor International


Hungary Oil & Gas Report

Published 12 March 2014

  • 98 pages
  • Instant access to your report online and PDF format through your account library
  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
 
$1,295.00
Hungary Oil & Gas Report

BMI View: In the race for attention and upstream investment interest, Hungary is only marginally in the race in central Europe. Despite many desirable elements; a clean regulatory process, proximity to hundreds of millions of customers, a well run downstream sector and pipelines to deliver goods, try as it might, Hungary has so far failed to identify source rock in sufficient quantity and quality to hold out hope of the elephant size discovery that lures the super majors and their large exploration budgets. That said, there are some smaller independents that remain committed and convinced that the absence of competition from those super majors clears the field for them.

There is a somewhat brighter picture in the mid & downstream sectors. Its refinery sector is modern and boasts a utilisation rate of over 80%. Pipeline news in the 2014-2016 timeframe will be dominated by the construction of the Hungarian portion of the South Stream pipeline (South Stream Hungary), and the country's largest oil and gas group MOL is entering new ventures. That may be good news for shareholders, but its decision to buy North Sea exploration and production licences will do nothing to boost the low reserve numbers for land-locked Hungary

On the upside, while the 'big find' has remained elusive, the independents in Hungary have had some success in tapping into new gas reserves. Those discoveries and the South Stream pipeline should provide greater long term security of supply for domestic gas users. But, along with decreasing production, is decreasing domestic demand. Hungary is still far from shaking off the economic rubble associated with the global banking crisis. The OECD predicts timid annual growth (less than 2%) for the remainder of the decade, reflecting BMI projections for limping petroleum demand within the country.

The m ain trends and developments for Hungary's o il and g as sector are:

  • Call for Bids: On February 19 th, the Hungarian government released the results...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Industry Forecast
11
Oil and Gas Reserves
11
Table: Hungary Proven Oil & Gas Reserves And Total Petroleum Data, 2011-2016
11
Table: Hungary Proven Oil & Gas Reserves And Total Petroleum Data, 2017-2022
12
Oil Supply And Demand
12
Table: Hungary Oil Production And Net Exports, 2011-2016
12
Table: Hungary Oil Production And Net Exports, 2017-2022
13
Gas Supply And Demand
15
Table: Hungary Gas Production, Consumption And Net Exports, 2011-2016
15
Table: Hungary Gas Production, Consumption And Net Exports, 2017-2022
16
Refining and Oil Products Trade
17
Table: Hungary Refining - Production And Consumption, 2011-2016
17
Table: Hungary Refining - Production And Consumption, 2017-2022
18
Revenues/Import Costs
19
Key Risks To BMI's Forecast Scenario
19
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
20
Central And Eastern Europe - Risk/Reward Ratings
20
Table: Central And Eastern Europe Risk/Reward Ratings
21
East Caspian Retains Upstream Ratings Lead
21
Russia: Large Resource Base But Limited Opportunities
23
Regional Minnows Breaking In
25
Table: CEE Upstream Risk/Reward Rating
26
Little Change In Downstream Rankings
26
Table: CEE Downstream Risk/Reward Ratings
29
Hungary - Risk/Reward Ratings
30
Hungary Upstream Rating - Overview
30
Hungary Upstream Rating - Rewards
30
Hungary Upstream Rating - Risks
30
Hungary Downstream Rating - Overview
30
Market Overview
32
Hungary Energy Market Overview
32
Oil And Gas Infrastructure
34
Oil Refineries
34
Table: Refineries In Hungary
34
Service Stations
35
Oil Storage Facilities
35
Oil Pipelines
35
Gas Storage Facilities
35
Gas Pipelines
36
Competitive Landscape
39
Competitive Landscape Summary
39
Table: Key Players - Hungary Oil And Gas Sector
40
Table: Key Upstream Player
40
Table: Key Downstream Players
40
Company Profile
41
Magyar Olaj--s G-zipari Nyrt (MOL)
41
Shell Hungary
48
OMV Hungary
50
Agip Hungaria
52
Other Summaries
54
Regional Overview
56
Central And Eastern Europe Overview
56
A Mutually Dependent Relationship
58
Weaning Off Russian Oil And Gas Proving Difficult
59
Azerbaijan Main Beneficiary Of Eastern Europe's Russian Fatigue
60
Moving From Pipeline To LNG
62
South Stream Looking Weak
63
Black (Sea) Gold Could Provide Relief
63
Shale Gas Showdown
64
Global Industry Overview
67
Appendix
74
Central And Eastern Europe - Regional Appendix
74
Table: Oil Consumption - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 ('000b/d)
74
Table: Oil Consumption - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2022 ('000b/d)
75
Table: Oil Production - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 ('000b/d)
75
Table: Oil Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2022 ('000b/d)
76
Table: Refining Capacity - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 ('000b/d)
77
Table: Refining Capacity - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2022 ('000b/d)
77
Table: Gas Consumption - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 (bcm)
78
Table: Gas Consumption - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2022 (bcm)
79
Table: Gas Production - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 (bcm)
80
Table: Gas Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2022 (bcm)
80
Table: LNG Exports - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 (bcm)
81
Table: Net LNG Exports - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2022 (bcm)
82
Glossary
83
Table: Glossary Of Terms
83
Methodology
85
Industry Forecast Methodology
85
Source
87
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
87
Table: Bmi's Oil & Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Ratings
89
Table: Weighting
91

The Hungary Oil & Gas Report has been researched at source and features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s independent forecasts for Hungary including major indicators for oil, gas and LNG, covering all major indicators including reserves, production, consumption, refining capacity, prices, export volumes and values. The report includes full analysis of industry trends and prospects, national and multinational companies and changes in the regulatory environment.

BMI's Hungary Oil & Gas Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Hungarian oil and gas industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent oil and gas industry forecasts for Hungary to test consensus views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Hungarian oil and gas market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Hungarian oil and gas sector through reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Hungary.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and Competitive Landscape Tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI's key forecasts and industry analysis, covering oil and gas reserves, supply, demand and refining, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.

Regional Overview

Regional perspective on size and value of industry sector; comparative rankings by production, refining, imports and exports of oil, gas and LNG.

Business Environment Ratings

BMI's Oil and Gas Business Environment Ratings provide a country-comparative Risk-Reward Ratings index aimed at investors (independents, NOCs, IOCs and oil services companies) in the upstream and downstream markets.

The ratings methodology makes sophisticated use of more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points and is part of BMI's integrated Country Risk-Industry Ratings products.

Oil Market Outlook and Oil Products Outlook

Based on our country coverage of over 99% of global oil and gas production and consumption, BMI provides demand, supply and price forecasts to end-2018 for oil, gas and oil products

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:

Pricing: Oil price (US$/bbl, WTI, Brent, OPEC basket, Urals); Oil products prices (unleaded gasoline, gasoil/diesel, jet/kerosene - US$/bbl) at global hubs

Production, Consumption, Capacity and Reserves: Proven oil reserves (bn barrels), production, consumption, refinery capacity and throughputs (`000b/d); Proven gas reserves (tcm), production and consumption (bcm)

Imports and Exports: Oil exports/imports (`000b/d), value of oil exports/imports (US$mn - BMI base case); Value of oil exports at constant US$50/bbl and constant US$100/bbl (US$mn); Gas exports/imports (bcm), Value of gas exports/imports (US$mn); Value of gas exports/imports at constant US$50/bbl and US$100/bbl (US$mn); Value of petroleum exports/imports (US$mn); Value of petroleum exports/imports at constant US$50/bbl and US$100/bbl (US$mn)

BMI Macroeconomic Forecasts

BMI forecasts to end-2018 for all headline macroeconomic indicators, including real GDP growth, inflation, fiscal balance, trade balance, current account and external debt.

Competitive Landscape

Comparative company analyses by US$ sales, % share of total sales, number of employees, year established, ownership structure, oil production ('000b/d), gas production (bcm), downstream capacity ('000b/d) and % market share.

Company Profiles

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

secure
Benefit from discounts when you add multiple products to your basket
2 Products SAVE 10%
3 Products SAVE 15%
4 Products SAVE 20%
5 Products SAVE 25%
6 Products SAVE 30%
7 - 20 Products SAVE 35%
21 Products or more SAVE 40%

Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc