Business Monitor International


Hungary Oil & Gas Report

Published 23 June 2014

  • 98 pages
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  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
 
$1,295.00
Hungary Oil & Gas Report

BMI View:  Long known for a good above ground risk profile and meagre below ground prospects, Hungary says it may need to scramble to bolster petroleum reserves due to its near complete reliance on Russia in light of the widening economic aftershocks of the Russia -Ukraine situation

Headline Forecasts (Hungary 2012-2018)
  2012e 2013e 2014f 2015f 2016f 2017f 2018f
Crude, NGPL & other liquids prod, 000b/d 23.1 22.3 21.6 20.9 20.2 19.6 19.0
Refined products production & ethanol, 000b/d 179.3 180.1 181.0 182.0 182.9 183.8 184.7
Refined products consumption & ethanol, 000b/d 134.9 132.0 133.0 134.5 135.8 137.6 139.3
Dry natural gas production, bcm 2.5 2.3 2.2 2.1 2.0 2.0 1.9
Dry natural gas consumption, bcm 10.4 10.2 10.0 9.9 9.7 9.6 9.5
e/f = BMI estimate/forecast; Source: EIA, BMI

Click here to explore data

The main trends and developments for Hungary's oil & gas sector are

  • In July 2013, Falcon Oil & Gas completed announced a gas show in the first well of an agreed three-well drilling exploration programme with Serbia's  NIS (owned 56% by Gazprom), to target the Algyö Play. Testing of the well began in November 2013, with the second and third wells planned to be completed by Q4 2014. Explorer Ascent Resources has estimated that around 50% of the tight gas in the Petisovci-Lovaszi area (on the Hungary/Slovenia border) can be recovered. Proven and probable reserves are almost 12bn cubic metres (bcm). However, while prospects remain good, Ascent restructured in 2013, selling its stake to PetroHungaria.

  • Gas consumption and production are both on the downward slope. We forecast domestic production of 2.1 bcm in 2015 and consumption continuing its precipitous fall to arrive at 9.9 bcm. An enfeebled economy causes us to forecast continued declines in demand though 2018 when gas consumption will bottom out at...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Industry Forecast
11
Oil & Gas Reserves
12
Table: Hungary Proven Oil & Gas Reserves And Total Petroleum Data, 2011-2016
12
Table: Hungary Proven Oil & Gas Reserves And Total Petroleum Data, 2017-2022
12
Oil Supply And Demand
13
Table: Hungary Oil Production And Net Exports, 2011-2016
13
Table: Hungary Oil Production And Net Exports, 2017-2022
14
Gas Supply And Demand
16
Table: Hungary Gas Production, Consumption And Net Exports, 2011-2016
16
Table: Hungary Gas Production, Consumption And Net Exports, 2017-2022
17
Refining And Oil Products Trade
19
Table: Hungary Refining - Production And Consumption, 2011-2016
19
Table: Hungary Refining - Production And Consumption, 2017-2022
19
Key Risks To BMI's Forecast Scenario
20
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
21
Central And Eastern Europe - Risk/Reward Ratings
21
Table: Central And Eastern Europe Risk/Reward Ratings
22
Caspian Retains Upstream Ratings Lead
22
Russia: Large Resource Base, But Growing Technical Challenges
25
Regional Minnows Breaking In
26
Table: CEE Upstream Risk/Reward Rating
27
Little Change In Downstream Rankings
27
Table: CEE Downstream Risk/Reward Ratings
30
Hungary - Risk/Reward Ratings
31
Hungary Upstream Rating - Overview
31
Hungary Upstream Rating - Rewards
31
Hungary Upstream Rating - Risks
32
Hungary Downstream Rating - Overview
32
Market Overview
33
Hungary Energy Market Overview
33
Oil And Gas Infrastructure
35
Oil Refineries
35
Table: Refineries In Hungary
35
Service Stations
36
Oil Storage Facilities
36
Oil Pipelines
36
Gas Storage Facilities
36
Gas Pipelines
37
Competitive Landscape
41
Competitive Landscape Summary
41
Table: Key Players - Hungary Oil And Gas Sector
42
Table: Key Upstream Player
42
Table: Key Downstream Players
42
Company Profile
43
Magyar Olaj--s G-zipari Nyrt (MOL)
43
Shell Hungary
49
OMV Hungary
52
Agip Hungaria
54
Other Summaries
56
Regional Overview
58
Central And Eastern Europe Overview
58
Trade Dynamic To Persist But Growth Moves East
60
Weaning Off Russian Oil And Gas Proving Difficult
61
Azerbaijan Main Beneficiary Of Eastern Europe's Russian Fatigue
63
Moving From Pipeline To LNG
65
South Stream Looking Weak
66
Black (Sea) Gold Could Provide Relief
66
Shale Gas Showdown
67
Global Industry Overview
70
Global Energy Market Overview
70
OPEC Reconsiders Modus Operandi
72
Production Outages Look Likely To Persist
73
Global Oil Demand Picks Up
74
Capex Growth Cycle Shifting Gears
76
Table: BMI Oil Price Forecasts, Annual Average, USD/bbl
76
Appendix
79
Central And Eastern Europe - Regional Appendix
79
Table: Oil Consumption - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 ('000b/d)
79
Table: Oil Consumption - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 ('000b/d)
80
Table: Oil Production - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 ('000b/d)
80
Table: Oil Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 ('000b/d)
81
Table: Refining Capacity - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 ('000b/d)
82
Table: Refining Capacity - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 ('000b/d)
83
Table: Gas Consumption - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 (bcm)
83
Table: Gas Consumption - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 (bcm)
84
Table: Gas Production - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 (bcm)
85
Table: Gas Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 (bcm)
86
Table: LNG Exports - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 (bcm)
86
Table: Net LNG Exports - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 (bcm)
87
Hungary - Refined Products Breakdown, 10-year Forecasts
88
Table: Hungary Refined Petroleum Products, Production Breakdown, 2012 -2017
88
Table: Hungary Refined Petroleum Products, Production Breakdown, 2018 -2023
89
Table: Hungary Refined Petroleum Products, Consumption Breakdown, 2012-2017
90
Table: Hungary Refined Petroleum Products, Consumption Breakdown, 2018-2023
91
Table: Hungary Refined Petroleum Products, Net Exports Breakdown, 2012-2017
93
Table: Hungary Refined Petroleum Products, Net Exports Breakdown, 2018-2023
93
Glossary
95
Table: Glossary Of Terms
95
Methodology
97
Industry Forecast Methodology
97
Source
99
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
99
Table: Bmi's Oil & Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Ratings
101
Table: Weighting
102

The Hungary Oil & Gas Report has been researched at source and features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s independent forecasts for Hungary including major indicators for oil, gas and LNG, covering all major indicators including reserves, production, consumption, refining capacity, prices, export volumes and values. The report includes full analysis of industry trends and prospects, national and multinational companies and changes in the regulatory environment.

BMI's Hungary Oil & Gas Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Hungarian oil and gas industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent oil and gas industry forecasts for Hungary to test consensus views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Hungarian oil and gas market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Hungarian oil and gas sector through reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Hungary.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and Competitive Landscape Tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI's key forecasts and industry analysis, covering oil and gas reserves, supply, demand and refining, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.

Regional Overview

Regional perspective on size and value of industry sector; comparative rankings by production, refining, imports and exports of oil, gas and LNG.

Business Environment Rankings

BMI's Oil and Gas Business Environment Rankings provide a country-comparative Risk-Reward Rankings index aimed at investors (independents, NOCs, IOCs and oil services companies) in the upstream and downstream markets.

The rankings methodology makes sophisticated use of more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points and is part of BMI's integrated Country Risk-Industry Rankings products.

Oil Market Outlook and Oil Products Outlook

Based on our country coverage of over 99% of global oil and gas production and consumption, BMI provides demand, supply and price forecasts to end-2018 for oil, gas and oil products

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:

Pricing: Oil price (US$/bbl, WTI, Brent, OPEC basket, Urals); Oil products prices (unleaded gasoline, gasoil/diesel, jet/kerosene - US$/bbl) at global hubs

Production, Consumption, Capacity and Reserves: Proven oil reserves (bn barrels), production, consumption, refinery capacity and throughputs (`000b/d); Proven gas reserves (tcm), production and consumption (bcm)

Imports and Exports: Oil exports/imports (`000b/d), value of oil exports/imports (US$mn - BMI base case); Value of oil exports at constant US$50/bbl and constant US$100/bbl (US$mn); Gas exports/imports (bcm), Value of gas exports/imports (US$mn); Value of gas exports/imports at constant US$50/bbl and US$100/bbl (US$mn); Value of petroleum exports/imports (US$mn); Value of petroleum exports/imports at constant US$50/bbl and US$100/bbl (US$mn)

BMI Macroeconomic Forecasts

BMI forecasts to end-2018 for all headline macroeconomic indicators, including real GDP growth, inflation, fiscal balance, trade balance, current account and external debt.

Competitive Landscape

Comparative company analyses by US$ sales, % share of total sales, number of employees, year established, ownership structure, oil production ('000b/d), gas production (bcm), downstream capacity ('000b/d) and % market share.

Company Profiles

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc