BMI View: M obile market growth has stalled in 2014 and consequently BMI does not believe that there is much scope for organic growth on the Hong Kong mobile market. Data usage is expected to be one of the key drivers for H ong Kong's telecoms sector over the next few years. The Hong Kong government is actively promoting the territory as a regional hub for data centres, and BMI believes Hong Kong has the right characteristics to attract data centre investment s . Recent spectrum auctions could pave way to higher 4G investment and the expansion on China Mobile into Hong Kong.
Latest data from the OFCA showed there were 17.168mn mobile subscribers at the end of June 2014, almost unchanged since the beginning of the year. We forecast 18.125mn mobile subscribers by the end of our five-year forecast in 2018, a 242.9% penetration rate.
Based on full year data from the regulator for broadband subscribers, we forecast the number of broadband internet subscriptions to reach 2.587mn by 2018, a 34.7% penetration rate.
Hong Kong remains in fourth position in BMI's Asia Pacific Telecoms Risk/Reward Index with a telecoms rating score of 62.7, slightly lower than the previous quarter.
Key Trends And Developments
In May 2014, Hong Kong Telecom (HKT) finalised a USD2.245bn deal to reacquire mobile network operator CSL, which makes the incumbent the clear leader in Hong Kong's highly competitive and saturated market and augments its ability to offer comprehensive converged fixed-mobile services to consumers and businesses. HKT's principal shareholder, PCCW Ltd, was expected to hold a market share of around 31% out of a total subscription base of 17.445mn post-acquisition. The deal was approved by the regulator Office of the Communications Authority (OFCA) in May 2014 on condition that the merged entity divests a total of 29.6MHz of their combined 3G spectrum, not by renewing the assignment of and not bidding for additional...
The Hong Kong Telecommunications Report features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s independent industry forecasts on the future strength of Hong Kong's ICT market, covering the fixed-line, mobile and internet segments and analyses latest regulatory developments and corporate news, including investment activity, mergers and acquisitions, joint ventures and partnerships. Leading operators and manufacturers are fully profiled, highlighting their quarterly financial performance, capital expenditure plans and latest contracts.
BMI's Hong Kong Telecommunications Report provides industry professionals and researchers, operators, equipment suppliers and vendors, corporate and financial services analysts and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the telecoms industry in Hong Kong.
- Benchmark BMI's independent telecoms industry forecasts for Hong Kong to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Hong Kong telecoms market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in Hong Kong's telecoms sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Hong Kong.
- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity).
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts and views, covering the ICT, fixed-line, mobile (including 3G), internet and broadband markets.
Industry SWOT Analysis
Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the wireline and wireless sectors and within the broader political, economic and business environment.
Business Environment Rankings
BMI's Telecommunications Business Environment Rankings provides a country-comparative Risk-Reward Rankings index aimed at investors (vendors, operators and suppliers) in the regional telecoms market.
The rankings methodology makes sophisticated use of more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points.
BMI Industry Forecast Scenario
Historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry indicators (see list below) supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast.
- Fixed-Line Telephony - Telephone lines ('000); telephone lines/100 inhabitants.
- Cellular Telephony - Mobile phone subscribers ('000); mobile phone subscribers/100 inhabitants; mobile phone subscribers/100 fixed line subscribers.
- Internet Markets - Internet users ('000); internet users/100 inhabitants; broadband internet subscribers ('000); broadband internet subscribers/100 inhabitants.
Market Data Analysis
Detailed market analysis of the mobile, mobile content, fixed line and internet segments, broken down into:
- Market Data - Analysis of market size, operator shares, dominant trends, competitive landscape and key quarterly data.
- Technology/Service Rollout - Analysis of rollout/adoption of new technology, such as 3G, WiMAX, IPTV, pay-TV, LTE and value-added handset services (gaming, music, video, apps etc.).
- Mobile Content - The latest trends in content and services available and being introduced by mobile operators. Including a timeline of all the latest major mobile content developments.
- Company Database - A comprehensive breakdown of KPIs of the leading mobile operators, including subscriber figures by type (pre-paid and post-paid); 3G subscriber figures; net additions; market share; ARPU; churn rates; minutes of use; voice and non-voice revenue; financial figures (including operating revenues, net profits and EBITDA).
Details of the regulatory bodies and their responsibilities, as well as a special focus on the rules surrounding competition and interconnection. The latest updates in the market's development and regulatory rulings.
Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses.
The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.