Business Monitor International


Hong Kong Autos Report

Published 11 December 2014

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$1,295.00
Hong Kong Autos Report

BMI View: We forecast Taiwan's auto sales growth for 2014 to come in at 8.7%, largely backed by a surge in the commercial vehicle segment. According to the Hong Kong Transport Department (HKTD), auto sales grew by 4.2% year-on-year (y-o-y) in October 2014, a slowdown from the strong 20.8% y-o-y growth seen in the previously month, largely due to the pro-democracy protests (also known as the Umbrella Movement) that began in late September. Auto sales grew by 9.4% y-o-y for the period January-October, and we expect pro-democracy protests to dampen sales for the remaining months of 2014.

Beyond 2015, we are more positive on the outlook for the passenger car segment, underpinned by a de-escalation of the Umbrella Movement and a more positive economic outlook. We also expect some pent-up demand due to a decline in sales in Q414 to spill over into the early part of 2015. As such, we forecast passenger car sales for 2015 to come in at 40,952 units, representing 3.8% growth, slightly higher than the 3.5% growth forecast for 2014.

However, growth will largely be underpinned by the commercial vehicle segment, which has seen a surge in sales over the past seven months (April-October), since the 'Ex-Gratia Payment' Scheme was implemented n March 2014. The scheme is a more heavy handed approach by the government to phase out some 80,000 pre-Euro IV vehicles off the roads over the coming years. In view of a larger number of vehicle owners opting to de-register their older vehicles and replacing them with 'greener' CVs, we expect sales momentum seen in 2014 extending into 2015. This is further supported by the various delays in construction projects in 2014 that will spill over into 2015, and this will also provide a boost to the CV segment. Consequently, we have revised our 2015 CV sales growth forecast to 24.2%, up from 19.3% previously.

Meanwhile, the country's efforts at promoting the electric vehicle segment have yet to gain traction, and according the Hong Kong's...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
8
Political
10
Economic
11
Business Environment
12
Industry Forecast
13
Table: Autos Total Market - Historical Data And Forecasts (Hong Kong 2012-2018)
13
Table: Passenger Car Market - Historical Data And Forecasts (Hong Kong 2012-2018)
13
Table: Commercial Vehicle Market - Historical Data And Forecasts (Hong Kong 2012-2018)
13
Table: Motorcycle Market - Historical Data And Forecasts (Hong Kong 2012-2018)
14
Sales
14
Passenger Vehicles
18
Table: Passenger Car Market - Historical Data And Forecasts (Hong Kong 2012-2018)
19
Macroeconomic Forecasts
22
Economic Analysis
22
External Trade Not What It Seems
22
Property Correction Informs Below Consensus Forecast
24
Expenditure Breakdown
24
Table: Hong Kong - Economic Activity
25
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
26
Asia - Risk/Reward Ratings
26
Table: BMI Industry Risk/Reward Ratings - Asia-Pacific Autos
29
Company Profile
30
Company Monitor
30
Crown Motors
33
Mercedes-Benz Hong Kong
35
Sime Darby China
37
Regional Overview
39
Table: Vehicle Sales June 2014 (CBUS)
39
Global Industry Overview
45
Table: Passenger Car Sales May 2014 (CBUs)
45
Outperformers Boost European Outlook
45
Trucks Give North America A Lift
46
India Brings Relief To BRICs
48
Demographic Forecast
50
Demographic Outlook
50
Table: Hong Kong's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
51
Table: Hong Kong's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
52
Table: Hong Kong's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
53
Table: Hong Kong's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
53
Methodology
54
Industry Forecasts
54
Sector-Specific Methodology
55
Sources
55
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
56
Table: Automotive Risk/Reward Ratings Indicators And Weighting Of Indicators
57

The Hong Kong Autos Report features the latest data and forecasts covering production, sales, imports and exports.

Business Monitor International (BMI)'s Hong Kong Autos Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, auto associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the automotives market in Hong Kong.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent automotives industry forecasts on Hong Kong to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the Hong Kong automotives market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Hong Kong automotives sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Hong Kong.
  • Assess the activities and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Competitive Landscape Analysis.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts and views, covering production, sales and the introduction of new technology or products.

Global, Regional and Country Industry Overviews

In-depth analysis of the major global and regional developments in the market, which can be linked with the country industry overview, providing cross-country investment, product and financing trends that will affect each market, supported by BMI’s global and regional industry forecasts.

Business Environment Rankings

BMI's proprietary Autos Business Environment Rankings are a unique country-comparative Risk-Reward Rankings index that separately analyses the risks and rewards of operating in each market. It is aimed at investors (including manufacturers, suppliers and dealers) who seek to either identify and compare market opportunities, or evaluate country-specific operational challenges.

The rankings methodology makes sophisticated use of over 40 industries, economic and demographic data points.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:

Total production value (US$bn); total production of units; production by vehicle-type (including cars, commercial vehicles, trucks and buses); total sales value (US$bn); sales by vehicle-type, including passenger cars and commercial vehicles (vans and microbuses, pickups, trucks and buses, 4 wheel drive); total exports by value (US$bn) and by units; total imports by value (US$bn) and by units; contribution to GDP; employment in industry.

BMI Economic Forecasts

BMI forecasts to end-2018 for all headline macroeconomic indicators, including real GDP growth, inflation, fiscal balance, trade balance, current account and external debt.

Company Profiles

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc