Business Monitor International


Hong Kong Autos Report

Published 18 March 2014

  • 61 pages
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$1,295.00
Hong Kong Autos Report

According to the Hong Kong Department of Transport (HKDT), passenger car sales declined 16.8% year-on-year (y-o-y) in January 2014, to 2,612 units. This was after the segment's strong performance in 2013, when sales grew 6.8%, to 38,119 units.

In 2013, vehicle sales grew by 9.9%, to 44,116 units, helped by the surge in commercial vehicle (CV) sales due to the newly enacted subsidies. However, we expect growth to head sharply lower in 2014 as the initial boost in CV sales makes way to a more gradual trade-in process of these old trucks.

Commercial vehicle (CV) sales saw 34.6% growth in 2013, to 5,997 units. This was due to the cash for clunkers programme introduced by the government, which gives subsidies to owners to replace their pre-Euro IV CVs. We expect CV sales to experience a small contraction in 2014 due to the high base effects of 2013. Furthermore, the CV replacement programme has not been that popular resulting in the government increasing the amount of subsidies offered. However, we expect the take-up rate to still remain slow.

The overwhelmingly dominant part of Hong Kong's auto market will continue to be passenger vehicles. In 2013, passenger car sales totalled 38,119 units, which was just fewer than 87% of total vehicle sales in the city province.

We forecast CV sales to average growth of only 1.6% over the 2014-2018 period, to hit 6,358 units by 2018. As the take-up rate for government incentives to replace older CVs slows, sales of new CVs will also take a hit.

Due to the limited success of the 'Cash for Clunkers' programme introduced in January 2013 to incentivise CV owners to replace their pre-Euro IV vehicles, the Hong Kong government intends to make it more favourable in order to increase participation rates. However, even with greater subsidies, affordability remains a concern and the continued tepid response to this scheme could see more heavy-handed regulation to phase out polluting CVs.

As smog continues to be a regular occurrence in Hong Kong,...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
8
Political
10
Economic
11
Business Environment
12
Industry Forecast
13
Sales
13
Table: Hong Kong Automotive Sales, 2012-2018
13
Table: Monthly Passenger Car Sales, Units
14
Table: Monthly CV Sales (By Segment), Units
14
Passenger Vehicles
18
Macroeconomic Forecasts
22
Private Consumption
23
Government Consumption
24
Gross Fixed Capital Formation
24
Net Exports
24
Table: Hong Kong - Economic Activity
25
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
26
Asia Pacific - Risk/Reward Ratings
26
Table: Asia Pacific Autos Risk/Reward Ratings
29
Company Profile
30
Company Monitor
30
Crown Motors
33
Mercedes-Benz Hong Kong
35
Sime Darby China
36
Regional Overview
38
Table: Vehicle Sales 2013 (CBUS)
38
Global Industry Overview
43
Table: Passenger Car Sales November 2013 (CBUs)
43
Europe On Road To Recovery
43
Tax Hike Skews Japan's Outlook; US Hits Sweet 16
45
China Is BRIC Bright Spot
47
Demographic Forecast
50
Demographic Outlook
50
Table: Hong Kong's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
51
Table: Hong Kong's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
52
Table: Hong Kong's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
53
Table: Hong Kong's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
53
Methodology
54
Industry Forecasts
54
Sector-Specific Methodology
55
Sources
55
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
56
Table: Automotive Risk/Reward Ratings Indicators And Weighting Of Indicators
57

The Hong Kong Autos Report features the latest data and forecasts covering production, sales, imports and exports.

Business Monitor International (BMI)'s Hong Kong Autos Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, auto associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the automotives market in Hong Kong.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent automotives industry forecasts on Hong Kong to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the Hong Kong automotives market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Hong Kong automotives sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Hong Kong.
  • Assess the activities and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Competitive Landscape Analysis.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts and views, covering production, sales and the introduction of new technology or products.

Global, Regional and Country Industry Overviews

In-depth analysis of the major global and regional developments in the market, which can be linked with the country industry overview, providing cross-country investment, product and financing trends that will affect each market, supported by BMI’s global and regional industry forecasts.

Business Environment Ratings

BMI's proprietary Autos Business Environment Ratings are a unique country-comparative Risk-Reward Ratings index that separately analyses the risks and rewards of operating in each market. It is aimed at investors (including manufacturers, suppliers and dealers) who seek to either identify and compare market opportunities, or evaluate country-specific operational challenges.

The ratings methodology makes sophisticated use of over 40 industries, economic and demographic data points.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:

Total production value (US$bn); total production of units; production by vehicle-type (including cars, commercial vehicles, trucks and buses); total sales value (US$bn); sales by vehicle-type, including passenger cars and commercial vehicles (vans and microbuses, pickups, trucks and buses, 4 wheel drive); total exports by value (US$bn) and by units; total imports by value (US$bn) and by units; contribution to GDP; employment in industry.

BMI Economic Forecasts

BMI forecasts to end-2018 for all headline macroeconomic indicators, including real GDP growth, inflation, fiscal balance, trade balance, current account and external debt.

Company Profiles

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc