BLOG: Risk Watchdog

Updated daily by key members of Business Monitor International's Country Risk team, The Risk Watchdog blog gives you up-to-date insight and comment from our analysts around the world, covering global financial markets, economic analysis and political risk.

 

Trusted Intelligence
for Informed Decisions

BMI provides data, analysis, ratings and forecasts on country risk and industry sectors for 170 markets. Our customers and clients comprise multinational companies, financial institutions, governments and academia across 140 countries, including 400 of the Global Fortune 500 companies.

Country Risk
Argentina: Kirchners Tangled In Their Own Web

March 16 2010

BMI View: The tide appears to be turning against the Kirchners, as reflected in their crushing defeat in the 2009 mid-term elect ...

Financial Markets
Europe: CDS Spreads To Move Into Lower Range

March 16 2010

A major re-pricing of risk is underway in Central and Eastern Europe, reflected in breaks of key resistance levels across most benchmark cre ...

Industry
Nigeria: On The Ground In Lagos - Uncertainty Is The Watchword

March 16 2010

Economic activity remains strong. We hold to our 7.5% real GDP growth forecast for 2010. The establishment of the Asset Management Corporati ...

Companies
CNOOC Looks For Another Brazil In Argentina

March 15 2010

With this week's announcement by China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC) that it plans to buy 50% of Argentine oil producer Bridas f ...

 Latest Reports From Our Store
NEW! company profiles
- $80 Read More Oil & Gas Company Profiles - Middle East
32 company profiles    Pub date: November 12 2009    Annual
Company Overview, Contact Details, Key Personnel, SWOT Analysis, Competitive Positioning, Strategy and Latest Developments for multinational oil & gas companies in the Middle East.
Country Risk | Country risk analysis, macroeconomic forecasts and business environment rankings, covering 175 markets worldwide
Special Reports
- $490
Read More Iran and Global Energy Security: Nuclear Policy Raises Tensions
40 pages    Pub date: March 15 2010   
Tensions Rising Over Iran International tensions over Iran's nuclear programme are rising following the announcement in February by President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad that the Islamic Republic had begun to enrich its uranium stockpile to a higher grade. This latest move effectively brings Iran closer to possessing nuclear...
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Read More China And The US: From Cooperation To Confrontation?
29 pages    Pub date: March 15 2010   
The report examines the main threats to amicable China-US relations, and outlines three scenarios for the coming decade.
- $490
Read More Emerging Markets Take Centre Stage: A Dramatic Shift in Purchasing Power
58 pages    Pub date: February 4 2010   
EM To Outperform After years of progress on regulatory reform, macroeconomic restructuring and institutional convergence following the painful events of the Asian and Russian crises of 1997/98 and the Argentine debt default of 2001, emerging markets (EM) are, for the most part, far healthier than ever be...
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Read More Afghanistan: Challenges Beyond The Presidential Elections
21 pages    Pub date: September 1 2009   
The report outlines the challenges and threats facing Afghanistan over the coming years, and the West's options to bring stability.
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Read More Finding Hidden Potential In The South Pacific
58 pages    Pub date: August 28 2009   
This report examines the economic and political outlook for the South Pacific states. It is complemented by 10-year forecasts of Australia, New Zealand and China.
- $675
Read More Caribbean 2009-10: Trouble In Paradise
51 pages    Pub date: May 14 2009   
BMI presents a comprehensive report on the Caribbean, including our views on the future of offshore financial centres, the diversification of tourism, and the rising tide of crime.
LATEST Business Forecast Reports
- $765
Read More Iceland Business Forecast Report
33 pages    ISSN: ISSN   2040-6282    Pub date: March 15 2010    Quarterly   
The Iceland Business Forecast Report provides essential macroeconomic, political and financial analysis for companies doing business in Iceland.
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Read More Portugal Business Forecast Report
33 pages    ISSN: ISSN   2040-6312    Pub date: March 11 2010    Quarterly   
The Portugal Business Forecast Report provides essential macroeconomic, political and financial analysis for companies doing business in Portugal.
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Read More Spain Business Forecast Report
37 pages    ISSN: 1479-6244    Pub date: March 10 2010    Quarterly   
The Spain Business Forecast Report provides essential macroeconomic, political and financial analysis for companies doing business in Spain.
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Read More Switzerland Business Forecast Report
33 pages    ISSN: ISSN   2040-6339    Pub date: March 10 2010    Quarterly   
The Switzerland Business Forecast Report provides essential macroeconomic, political and financial analysis for companies doing business in Switzerland.
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Read More Austria Business Forecast Report
39 pages    ISSN: ISSN   2040-6371    Pub date: March 10 2010    Quarterly   
The Austria Business Forecast Report provides essential macroeconomic, political and financial analysis for companies doing business in Austria.
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Read More Netherlands Business Forecast Report
35 pages    ISSN: ISSN   2040-6347    Pub date: March 10 2010    Quarterly   
Domestic Politics Employment/Consumer Confidence Dichotomy Dutch consumer confidence is improving: although consumers are still predominantly pessimistic about the economic situation, they are becoming more hopeful about the economy’s prospects for the coming year. While this is the natural reaction to an ...
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Read More New Zealand Business Forecast Report
31 pages    ISSN: ISSN   2040-6398    Pub date: March 10 2010    Quarterly   
National Looks Set To Win We are maintaining our view that New Zealand’s Labour party will be denied a fourth consecutive term, and the National Party will win the majority of votes. Indeed, if anything, the case has swung further in National’s favour, despite some minor relief in the ...
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Read More Cameroon Business Forecast Report
60 pages    ISSN: 1756-7963    Pub date: February 26 2010    Quarterly   
Corruption And Commodities A mid the revelations of embezzlement at the Cameroon-based Bank of Central African States and the leaking of a government investigation into malfeasance in the agricultural ministry, the issue of corruption has been pushed to the fore, at least temporarily. T...
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Read More Vietnam Business Forecast Report
80 pages    ISSN: 1474-1423    Pub date: February 26 2010    Quarterly   
Double-Dip Expected Ahead Of 2011 National Congress We believe Vietnam will need to tighten fiscal and monetary policy sharply in 2010 in order to bring the balance of payments back to a sustainable level. With external demand still weak, we are forecasting real GDP growth dropping to ...
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Read More Francophone West Africa Business Forecast Report
67 pages    ISSN: 1758-5066    Pub date: February 26 2010    Quarterly   
Prospects For Reform In The Region: Win Some, Lose Some The democratic trajectory of the Francophone West Africa region continues to be severely tested, with forces pulling in different directions. On the positive side, political risks have subsided significantly in Mauritania with the ...
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LATEST Monitors
- $765
Read More Emerging Europe Monitor - Russia and CIS
ISSN: 1746-0735    Monthly   
Russia and CIS Monitor each month provides country-by-country analyses, ratings and forecasts covering political risk, economic performance, key industries, finance and the business environment
- $765
Read More Latin America Monitor - Andean Group
ISSN: 0265-9093    Monthly   
Andean Group Monitor each month provides country-by-country analyses, ratings and forecasts covering political risk, economic performance, key industries, finance and the business environment
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Read More Latin America Monitor - Brazil
ISSN: 0969-5966    Monthly   
Brazil Monitor each month provides analyses, ratings and forecasts covering political risk, economic performance, key industries, finance and the business environment
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Read More Latin America Monitor - Caribbean
ISSN: 0265-9115    Monthly   
Caribbean Monitor each month provides country-by-country analyses, ratings and forecasts covering political risk, economic performance, key industries, finance and the business environment
- $765
Read More Asia Monitor - China & North East Asia
ISSN: 1474-5615    Monthly   
China & North Asia Monitor each month provides country-by-country analyses, ratings and forecasts covering political risk, economic performance, key industries, finance and the business environment
- $765
Read More Latin America Monitor - Central America
ISSN: 0265-9085    Monthly   
Central America Monitor each month provides country-by-country analyses, ratings and forecasts covering political risk, economic performance, key industries, finance and the business environment
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Read More Asia Monitor - South Asia
ISSN: 1470-5176    Monthly   
South Asia Monitor each month provides country-by-country analyses, ratings and forecasts covering political risk, economic performance, key industries, finance and the business environment
- $765
Read More Latin America Monitor - Mexico
ISSN: 0969-5974    Monthly   
Mexico Monitor each month provides analyses, ratings and forecasts covering political risk, economic performance, key industries, finance and the business environment
- $765
Read More Asia Monitor - South East Asia Vol 1
ISSN: 1470-7810    Monthly   
South East Asia Monitor Vol 1 each month provides country-by-country analyses, ratings and forecasts covering political risk, economic performance, key industries, finance and the business environment
- $765
Read More Latin America Monitor - Southern Cone
ISSN: 0265-9107    Monthly   
Southern Cone Monitor each month provides country-by-country analyses, ratings and forecasts covering political risk, economic performance, key industries, finance and the business environment
- $2785
Read More Emerging Markets Monitor
ISSN: 1359-0006    Weekly   
Emerging Markets Monitor provides weekly analyses, forecasts and ratings on fixed income, foreign exchange, commodities, bonds, equities and funds across global markets, all backed by Business Monitor International’s highly respected assessments of political and macroeconomic risk.
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Read More Corporate Financing Week
ISSN: 1064-1912    Weekly   
Corporate Financing Week provides must-read updates and analysis on global M&A activity, IPOs, privatizations and equity and debt financing strategies, with must-read updates and analysis on all the key breaking deals.
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Industries | Industry trend analysis and forecasts, and competitive intelligence on leading companies, covering 16 industries across 60 markets worldwide
LATEST Special Reports
- $490
Read More Global Quarterly Shipping and Freight View – Q110
15 pages    Pub date: March 10 2010   
BMI pulls out its core views for its quarterly round up of the global shipping and freight transport sector for Q1 2020.
- $490
Read More Global Quarterly Infrastructure View – Q409: An Encouraging End To A Dismal Year
14 pages    Pub date: January 1 2010   
The fourth quarter saw a thaw in bank lending and a recovery in project finance operations. Though multilateral organisations and state-owned development banks played a dominant role, banks, especially from Asia, also had a presence in syndicated loans. One such example is the financing for the Salalah independent water and powe...
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Read More Another Russia-Ukraine Gas Dispute Looming?
9 pages    Pub date: November 30 2009   
In terms of the changed political context since early 2009, Ukraine's presidential elections, which are scheduled to be held on January 17 2010, are now only weeks away. The economic situation is also different. The global economic crisis has resulted in a significant decline in gas consumptionin Ukraine and the EU, with...
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Read More BMI Global Oil Market Report
19 pages    Pub date: November 12 2009   
Business Monitor International (BMI) has just published the Q1 2010 edition of our series of Global Oil Market Reports. This report details the major industry events in the Global Oil Market in Q3 and provides Q1 2010 forecasts for supply, demand and prices across both crude oil (OPEC basket, Brent, WTI, Urals, Dubai) and refined products (gasoline, gasoil/diesel, naphtha and jet/kerosene).
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Read More Value Added Services In Africa – The Way Forward
19 pages    Pub date: October 29 2009   
Chapter - Introduction VAS In Africa Chart: Growth Slowing Within Five Years Combatting Falling ARPUs Chart: Not One Market Escapes D...
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Read More Neglected Tropical Diseases: New Opportunities
14 pages    Pub date: September 24 2009   
Diseases can be classified as neglected when the cost of innovation, clinical trials and marketing are considered to be far more than the potential revenues. With no cost benefit, firms have not previously seen this area as a wise investment. Tropical diseases fall into this category, as the large numbers of people affec...
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Read More IPTV: Driving Pay TV in Latin America
34 pages    Pub date: September 16 2009   
As IPTV looks set to be a major driver of fixed-line operator revenues, BMI looks at the case for Latin American operators
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Read More The Patent Cliff: Strategies And Tactics For Survival
23 pages    Pub date: September 16 2009   
The patent cliff is arguably the greatest challenge facing multinational drugmakers. In this special report, BMI outlines the strategies and tactics needed for survival.
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Read More Petrobras: The Latin Major
10 pages    Pub date: September 16 2009   
BMI takes an in-depth look at Petrobras’ investment plans as it looks to tap potentially gigantic oil reserves offshore Brazil
- $490
Read More FedEx and UPS Prepare To Fight Their Way Through 2009
8 pages    Pub date: September 16 2009   
Take a 20% pay cut. . . In the current market, FedEx is giving a clear signal that it expects things to get tougher. In December it announced a package of austerity measures. Top of the list was the news that CEO Fred Smith was taking a voluntary 20% pay cut effective from January 2009. Other se...
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LATEST Industry Reports
- $875
Read More Canada Information Technology Report
Pub date: Not Yet Published - Pre-order Only    Quarterly   
The Canada Information Technology Report has just been researched at source, and features latest-available data covering production, sales, imports and exports; 5-year industry forecasts through end-2014; company rankings and competitive landscapes for multinational and local manufacturers and suppliers; and analysis of latest industry developments, trends and regulatory changes.
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Read More Germany Information Technology Report
Pub date: Not Yet Published - Pre-order Only    Quarterly   
The Germany Information Technology Report has just been researched at source, and features latest-available data covering production, sales, imports and exports; 5-year industry forecasts through end-2012 for Germany.
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Read More France Information Technology Report
Pub date: Not Yet Published - Pre-order Only    Quarterly   
The France Information Technology Report has just been researched at source, and features latest-available data covering production, sales, imports and exports; 5-year industry forecasts through end-2012 for France.
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Read More Congo, Dem. Rep. Mining Report
40 pages    Pub date: March 16 2010    Quarterly   
The big news from the Democratic Republic of Congo’s (DRC) mining industry in early 2009 was the news in March that the country plans to accept US$9bn in investments from China, to be spent on mining and infrastructure, despite the opposition of the IMF. The IMF has expressed concern that this deal – which was originally a...
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Read More Papua New Guinea Oil & Gas Report
71 pages    Pub date: March 16 2010    Quarterly   
The new Papua New Guinea (PNG) Oil & Gas Report from BMI forecasts that the country will account for 0.13% of Asia Pacific regional oil demand by 2014, while providing 0.38% of supply.
- $875
Read More United Kingdom Defence & Security Report
106 pages    Pub date: March 16 2010    Quarterly   
In the immediate aftermath of the July 2009 announcement that the UK government was launching a strategic defence review to report after the 2010 election, it was assumed decisions on most major procurement projects would be put on hold until then. In November 2009 a series of media reports emerged suggesting that Prime Minis...
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Read More Trinidad & Tobago Oil & Gas Report
93 pages    Pub date: March 16 2010    Quarterly   
The latest Trinidad & Tobago Oil & Gas Report from BMI forecasts that the country will account for just 0.48% of Latin America regional oil demand by 2013, while providing only 1.21% of supply. Latin America regional oil use of 6.66mn barrels per day (b/d) in 2001 reached an estimated 7.72mn b/d in 2008. It s...
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Read More Iran Autos Report
69 pages    Pub date: March 16 2010    Quarterly   
The Iranian automotive industry will witness a fall in production volume in 2009-2010 as consumer spending declines and the market contracts. BMI believes that sales and therefore production are falling as the country’s financial system struggles with low liquidity levels as a result of falling oil revenues and con...
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Read More Kenya Insurance Report
42 pages    Pub date: March 16 2010    Quarterly   
Kenya provides evidence that the insurance industry can thrive in Sub-Saharan Africa in face of highly challenging economic and – especially – political problems. As of the end of 2008 the combined assets of Kenya’s 42 insurers amounted to KES146.12bn – or nearly US$2bn.
- $875
Read More France Food & Drink Report
92 pages    Pub date: March 16 2010    Quarterly   
French food and drink companies invest heavily in research and development (R&D) and the country is a world leader in the functional food sector. There has been speculation that the functional sector may be hit hard by the economic downturn, and this speculation was supported by Danone’s decision to withdraw its Ess...
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Financial Markets | Analysis, forecasts and ratings on fixed income, FX, interest rates, commodities, equity markets and global funds
Monitors
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Read More Emerging Markets Monitor
ISSN: 1359-0006    Weekly   
Emerging Markets Monitor provides weekly analyses, forecasts and ratings on fixed income, foreign exchange, commodities, bonds, equities and funds across global markets, all backed by Business Monitor International’s highly respected assessments of political and macroeconomic risk.
- $2595
Read More Corporate Financing Week
ISSN: 1064-1912    Weekly   
Corporate Financing Week provides must-read updates and analysis on global M&A activity, IPOs, privatizations and equity and debt financing strategies, with must-read updates and analysis on all the key breaking deals.
Company Intelligence | Latest-available research on 150,000 top company executives at 60,000 leading multinational companies, located in emerging markets worldwide
LATEST Company Directories
- $975
Read More Multinational Companies in Hong Kong CD-ROM
291 pages    ISSN: 1463-0974    Pub date: October 12 2009    Annual   
Multinational Companies in Hong Kong CD-ROM - Sample Company Profile 3Com Asia Ltd Suite 1702-4, 17/F, Cityplaza One 1111 King's Road Taikoo Shing Hong Kong Tel: XXX Fax: XXX E-mail: XXX K...
- $975
Read More Multinational Companies in Poland CD-ROM
202 pages    ISSN: 1465-0258    Pub date: October 12 2009    Annual   
Multinational Companies in Poland CD-ROM - Sample Company Profile HOCHTIEF Polska Sp zoo ul Elblaska 14 Warsaw 01-737 Poland Tel: +48 (22) 560 0800 Fax: +48 (22) 633 9786 E-mail: XXX@hochtief.de Websi...
- $975
Read More Multinational Companies in the Philippines CD-ROM
250 pages    ISSN: 1465-0266    Pub date: October 12 2009    Annual   
Multinational Companies in the Philippines CD-ROM - Sample Company Profile Siemens Inc 17/F, Salcedo Tower 169 HV de la Costa Street Salcedo Village, Makati City Metro Manila 1227 Philippines Tel: +63 (2)...
- $975
Read More Multinational Companies in Hungary CD-ROM
240 pages    ISSN: 1465-5551    Pub date: October 12 2009    Annual   
Multinational Companies in Hungary CD-ROM - Sample Company Profile Pannon GSM Telecommunications Ltd Baross utca 165 Budaörs H-2040 Hungary Tel: +36 (20) 930 4000 Fax: +36 (20) 930 4000 E-mail: XXX@pannon.hu...
- $975
Read More Multinational Companies in Qatar CD-ROM
82 pages    ISSN: 1748-6599    Pub date: October 12 2009    Annual   
The Qatar database features over 460 fully researched, senior executive contacts and top decision makers at over 130 multinational companies in Qatar, across 34 industry sectors.
- $975
Read More Multinational Companies in the UAE CD-ROM
252 pages    ISSN: 1470-4501    Pub date: October 12 2009    Annual   
Multinational Companies in the UAE CD-ROM - Sample Company Profile Oracle Middle East PO Box 500099 Dubai Internet City, Oracle Building Dubai United Arab Emirates Tel: +971 (4) 390 9000 Fax: +971 (4) 390 9099 E-mail: XXX@ae.oracle.com Website: www.or...
- $975
Read More Multinational Companies in India CD-ROM
188 pages    ISSN: 1744-7852    Pub date: October 12 2009    Annual   
The India database features 2840 fully researched, senior executive contacts and top decision makers at 730 multinational companies in India, across 34 industry sectors.
- $975
Read More Multinational Companies in Romania CD-ROM
162 pages    ISSN: 1743-0070    Pub date: October 12 2009    Annual   
The Romania database features 2190 fully researched, senior executive contacts and top decision makers at 700 multinational companies in Romania, across 34 industry sectors.
- $975
Read More Multinational Companies in Turkey CD-ROM
184 pages    ISSN: 1465-0312    Pub date: October 12 2009    Annual   
Multinational Companies in Turkey CD-ROM - Sample Company Profile Maersk Denizcilik AS Buyukdere Cad No 121 Ercan Han A Blok Kat 3-6 34350 Gayrettepe Istanbul Turkey Tel: +90 (212) 444 0675 Fax: +90 (...
- $975
Read More Multinational Companies in Argentina CD-ROM
1 pages    ISSN: 1463-0931    Pub date: October 12 2009    Annual   
Multinational Companies in Argentina CD-ROM - Sample Company Profile Dow Quimica Argentina SA Avenida Eduardo Madero 900 Piso 7 Capital Federal 1106 Buenos Aires Argentina Tel: +54 (11) 4319 0100 Fax:...
- $975
Read More Multinational Companies in Indonesia CD-ROM
310 pages    ISSN: 1463-0982    Pub date: October 12 2009    Annual   
Multinational Companies in Indonesia CD-ROM - Sample Company Profile DyStar Colours Indonesia, PT 22/F, Menara Global Building Jl Gatot Subroto, Kav 27 Jakarta 12930 Indonesia Tel: +62 (21) 527 0550 Fax: +62 (21) 527 052...
- $975
Read More Multinational Companies in Russia CD-ROM
218 pages    ISSN: 1463-1016    Pub date: October 12 2009    Annual   
Multinational Companies in Russia CD-ROM - Sample Company Profile Allen & Overy Dmitrovskiy per., d. 9 Moscow 107031 Russia Tel: +7 (501) 725 7900 Fax: +7 (501) 725 7949 E-mail: XXX@allenovery.com Webs...
- $975
Read More Multinational Companies in Ukraine CD-ROM
101 pages    ISSN: 1748-6629    Pub date: October 12 2009    Annual   
The Ukraine database features 1050 fully researched, senior executive contacts and top decision makers at 350 multinational companies in Ukraine, across 34 industry sectors.
- $975
Read More Multinational Companies in Australia CD-ROM
280 pages    Pub date: October 12 2009    Annual   
The Foreign Companies in Australia Yearbook 2009 and CD-Rom 2009 is a researched company database of major international companies in Australia.
- $975
Read More Multinational Companies in Iran CD-ROM
91 pages    ISSN: 1748-653X    Pub date: October 12 2009    Annual   
The Iran database features over 970 fully researched, senior executive contacts and top decision makers at over 280 multinational companies in Iran, across 34 industry sectors.
View All 51 Company Directories
 
Company Profiles
- $80 Read More Oil & Gas Company Profiles - Middle East
32 company profiles    Pub date: November 12 2009    Annual
Company Overview, Contact Details, Key Personnel, SWOT Analysis, Competitive Positioning, Strategy and Latest Developments for multinational oil & gas companies in the Middle East.