Slight Recovery On The Cards In 2014
In our view the Greek economy is slowly getting better, though it remains deeply scarred after six years of recession. We still believe 2014 will see the first year of positive growth since the crisis began. But we have scaled down our forecast to 0.2% GDP growth (down from +0.5% in our last quarterly shipping report). The driving factors behind this year's growth are the stabilisation of consumer spending, recovering confidence levels, and a little bit of lift from net exports. Everything else in the Greek economy remains pretty bad. Investment is very weak, government spending is tightly controlled, the banks are still too shaky to boost credit, and unemployment remains on a long-term high. So in our view the recovery, while important, will be a pretty limited affair. We are predicting GDP growth of 1.2% in 2016, but we still don't see the pace picking up beyond 1.5% per annum across the rest of our medium-term forecast period.
Greece's outward-looking shipping sector continues to be partly protected from the depressed domestic economy. European transit freight demand plays an important part in determining overall activity levels, as does investment in port facilities. Because of this, the Port of Piraeus has been able to show year-on-year (y-o-y) gains in both tonnage and container traffic since 2011 despite falling Greek GDP. We are keeping our box traffic growth forecast for this year in double-percentage digits. The Port of Thessaloniki, which has lacked the benefits of large new investment, has followed a rather more volatile path with some quite sharp contractions in volume. This year we see bulk tonnage falling again.
Headline Industry Data
2014 port of Piraeus tonnage throughput forecast to grow 7.8% to 16.685mn tonnes; over the medium term, we project average annual growth of 6.2%.
2014 port of Piraeus container throughput forecast to grow 25.0% to 3.954mn twenty-foot equivalent units (TEUs); over the medium...
The Greece Shipping Report has been researched at source and features latest-available data and Business Monitor International (BMI)'s independent forecasting, critically analysing international transport of dry bulk and containers. The report evaluates the global commodities and trade backdrop, alongside in-depth country-specific analysis of trade prospects. The report also contains company profiles covering leading multinational and national shipping companies and analysis of latest industry news, trends and regulatory developments in Greece.
BMI's Greece Shipping Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, business investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the shipping industry in Greece.
- Benchmark BMI's independent shipping industry forecasts for Greece to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Greek shipping market.
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BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis covering shipping, major investments and projects and significant multinational and national company developments.
SWOT (Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats) analysis of the state's shipping sector, which carefully evaluates the short- and medium-term issues facing the industry.
Analysis of the capacity, terminals and planned development of the major ports in each country, including data on throughput and total tonnage.
Industry Forecast Scenario
Historic data series (2008-2012) and forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry and macroeconomic indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:
Major port freight throughput (tonnes/teu); overall freight throughput (teu); total imports (US$bn) and exports (US$bn).
Company profiles include business activities, leading products and services, company strategy, trends and developments and economic performance analysis.