Business Monitor International


Greece Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report

Published 14 April 2014

  • 104 pages
  • Instant access to your report online and PDF format through your account library
  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
 
$1,295.00
Greece Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report

BMI View: Despite the Greek economy's expected return to growth in 2014, we expect no lessening in the pressures on the Greek pharmaceutical and healthcare sectors over the medium - to long term. Further discussions with country's troika of lenders clearly indicate that more cuts to spending are on the horizon. With the government continuing to target the pharmaceutical and healthcare sector for cost savings, and a gainst a backdrop of consi derable market decline, generic drugs will present the only growth opportunity for drugmakers over the medium term.

Headline Expenditure Projections

  • Pharmaceuticals: EUR5.64bn (US$7.45bn) in 2013 to EUR5.27bn (US$6.70bn) in 2014; -6.6% in local currency terms and -10.1% in US dollar terms. Forecast downwardly revised from previous quarter.

  • Healthcare: EUR13.42bn (US$17.71bn) in 2013 to EUR11.86bn (US$15.06bn) in 2014; -11.6% in local currency terms and -15.0% in US dollar terms. Forecast downgraded from previous quarter as a result of further cost-containment measures.

Risk/Reward Rating: Greece's position in our Risk/Reward Ratings remains unchanged for another quarter, at 58 out of 100, making it once more the fourth most attractive pharmaceutical market in Central and Eastern Europe. Out of the 20 countries in our ratings, Greece comes behind Russia, but ahead of Slovakia. Although Greece's financial outlook has stabilised and debts are being paid down, the spectre of further price cuts, clawback taxes and the EOPYY's inability to pay drugmakers in a timely manner present significant risks to the industry.

Key Trends And Developments

  • In March 2014 the Greek government decided to contain healthcare expenditure and drug spending to EUR2bn (US$2.72bn) in Greece in 2014, reports iatropedia.gr. The move has increased speculation that 2014 will be a difficult year for patients, with less funding set aside for medicines. Medical associations and pharmaceutical companies have stated that reducing healthcare...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Political
11
Economic
12
Business Environment
13
Industry Forecast
14
Pharmaceutical Market Forecast
14
Table: Greece's Pharmaceutical Sales, Historical Data And Forecasts, 2009-2017
18
Healthcare Market Forecast
18
Table: Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts, 2009-2017
20
Table: Healthcare Governmental Indicators, 2009-2017
20
Table: Healthcare Private Indicators, 2009-2017
21
Prescription Drug Market Forecast
21
Table: Prescription Drug Sales Indicators, 2009-2017
23
Patented Drug Market Forecast
23
Table: Patented Drug Sales, 2009-2017
25
Generic Drug Market Forecast
26
Table: Generic Drug Sales, 2009-2017
28
OTC Medicine Market Forecast
29
Table: OTC Medicine Sales, 2009-2017
30
Table: OTC Medicine Sales Breakdown, 2007-2010
30
Pharmaceutical Trade Forecast
32
Table: Greece's Pharmaceutical Trade Data And Forecasts (US$mn)
33
Table: Greece's Pharmaceutical Trade Data And Forecasts (EURmn)
34
Key Risks To BMI's Forecast Scenario
34
Macroeconomic Forecasts
36
Economic Analysis
36
Table: Greece - Economic Activity
40
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
41
Central And Eastern Europe Risk
Central And Eastern Europe Risk
Greece Risk
Greece Risk
Rewards
47
Risks
48
Market Overview
50
Industry Trends And Developments
53
Epidemiology
53
Healthcare Sector
55
Healthcare Sector Developments
57
Healthcare Insurance
60
Infrastructure
62
Table: Inpatient Facilities And Beds By Speciality, 2008
62
Table: Outpatient Facilities And Beds By Region, 2008
63
Research And Development
64
Clinical Trials
65
Regulatory Development
66
Regulatory Regime
66
Intellectual Property Regime
67
Pricing Regime
67
Table: Quarterly Total Sales Volume Per Medicinal Product (additional to 9% of the current decision rebate amount)
69
Reimbursement Regime
73
Competitive Landscape
76
Company Activity
77
Government Activity
78
Parallel Pharmaceutical Exports
79
Table: Pharmacies By Region, 2007-2009
80
Company Profile
81
Alapis Pharma
81
Elpen
83
Genesis Pharma
85
Kleva
87
Lavipharm
88
Pharmathen
90
Vianex
92
Abbott Laboratories
94
GlaxoSmithKline
96
Merck Sharp & Dohme
98
Novartis
100
Sanofi
102
Pfizer
104
Demographic Forecast
106
Demographic Outlook
106
Table: Greece's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
107
Table: Greece's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
108
Table: Greece's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
109
Table: Greece's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
109
Glossary
110
Methodology
112
Pharmaceutical Expenditure Forecast Model
112
Healthcare Expenditure Forecast Model
112
Notes On Methodology
113
Risk
Risk
Ratings Overview
115
Table: Pharmaceutical Risk
Table: Pharmaceutical Risk
Indicator Weightings
116

The Greece Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s forecasts for drugs and healthcare expenditure and imports and exports, focusing on the growth outlook for the prescription, OTC, patented drugs and generics market segments.

BMI's Greece Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report provides industry professionals, strategists, company executives, investors, analysts and sales/marketing heads with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Greek pharmaceutical and healthcare industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent pharmaceutical and healthcare industry forecasts for Greece to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Greek pharmaceutical and healthcare market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Greek pharmaceutical and healthcare sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Greece.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and Competitive Landscape Tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View & Industry SWOT

An at-a-glance perspective on latest regulatory developments, key forecast indicators and major corporate developments, covering the prescription, OTC and generics markets. The SWOT outlines strategic factors which affect BMI's forecast analysis, and taken together with BMI's political, economic and business environment SWOTS, it gives a complete overview of market climate.

Market Summary

Snapshot of key market characteristics, including total size of pharmaceuticals and healthcare segments, growth drivers, leading therapeutic areas and the competitive landscape.

Regulatory Regime

Details of the industry regulatory framework and key legislation covering the licensing of new products/services, pricing and reimbursements, intellectual property, taxation and advertising, as well as an analysis of the overall regulatory burden.

Industry Developments

Focus on government healthcare reforms, epidemiological trends, company M&As, product launches, market entries, FDI activity, R&D, biotechnology, clinical trials and supply chain issues.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry indicators (see list below) supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:

Healthcare: Total healthcare expenditure (US$bn), healthcare expenditure (% of GDP), healthcare expenditure per capita (US$), hospital beds (per `000 population), doctors (per `000 population), birth and mortality rate (per `000 population)

Pharmaceutical market: Drug expenditure (US$bn), drug expenditure (% of GDP), drug expenditure per capita (US$)

Patented drug market: Prescription drug sales (US$bn), prescription sales (% of total sales), sales broken down by 14 therapeutic areas (cardiovascular, anti-infectives etc.)

Generic drug market: Generic product sales (US$bn), generic sales (% of total sales)

OTC drug market: OTC sales (US$bn), OTC sales (% of total sales), sales broken down by product types (analgesics, skin treatments, vitamins and minerals etc.)

Medical Devices: Medical device sales (US$bn), medical device sales (% of total healthcare market)

Macroeconomic Forecasts: Nominal and real GDP, % real GDP growth, % private consumption growth, % industrial output growth, % consumer price index, % GDP price deflator, exports, imports, trade balance, current account balance, foreign direct investment, exchange rate against US$, government expenditure, external debt.

Competitive Landscape

The competitive landscape section provides comparative company analyses and rankings by US$ sales and % share of total sales - for the total pharmaceutical sector, as well as the OTC, generics, and distribution sub-sectors.

Company Profiles

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc