Business Monitor International


Greece Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report

Published 14 January 2015

  • 104 pages
  • Instant access to your report online and PDF format through your account library
  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
 
$1,295.00
Greece Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report

BMI View: A distinct escalation in political uncertainty will see continued erosion of public and political support for the im plementation of much - needed reforms. In addition, drugmakers will see revenue opportunities constrained as pressures on Greek household spending are amplified by an anachronistic and distorted domestic pharmaceutical reimbursement structure. Regressive funding, under-the-table payments and the lack of universal health care administration have allowed numerous intermediaries to operate throughout the Greek pharmaceutical value chain , thus sustaining artificially high domestic drug prices. As such, w hile Greeks continue to pay relatively more for their high volumes of prescriptions than elsewhere in Europe, it is unlikely that multinational drugmakers will be able to participate in these margins.

Headline Expenditure Projections

  • Pharmaceuticals: EUR5.64bn (USD7.45bn) in 2013 to EUR5.36bn (USD7.19bn); -5.0% in local currency terms and -3.5% in US dollar terms. Forecast unchanged from Q414

  • Healthcare: EUR15.12bn (USD19.96bn) in 2013 to EUR14.24bn (USD19.08bn) in 2014; -5.8% in local currency terms and -4.4 in US dollar terms. Forecast revised up from -15.8% in Q414.

Risk/Reward Index : In BMI's Q1 2015 Pharmaceutical Risk/Reward Index (RRI), Greece remains ranked third out of the 20 markets in the Central and Eastern European (CEE) matrix, scoring 57.9 out of 100. This score is unchanged from Q414. Out of the 20 countries in our ratings, Greece comes behind Poland, but markedly ahead of Russia. Although Greece's financial outlook has stabilised somewhat, the slow pace of reform, an uptick in political instability and the EOPYY's inability to pay drugmakers in a timely manner present significant risk to the industry.

Key Trends a nd Developments

In December 2015, due to the increased possibility of a rise in VAT on medicines, Greek Health Minister Makis Voridis announced his expectations of an additional...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
10
Political
12
Economic
13
Business Environment
14
Industry Forecast
15
Pharmaceutical Market Forecast
15
Table: Pharmaceutical Sales, Historical Data And Forecasts (Greece 2010-2018)
17
Healthcare Market Forecast
18
Table: Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (Greece 2010-2018)
19
Table: Government Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (Greece 2010-2018)
20
Table: Private Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (Greece 2010-2018)
20
Prescription Drug Market Forecast
21
Table: Prescription Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (Greece 2010-2018)
22
Patented Drug Market Forecast
23
Table: Patented Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (Greece 2010-2018)
24
Generic Drug Market Forecast
25
Table: Generic Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (Greece 2010-2018)
27
OTC Medicine Market Forecast
27
Table: Over-The-Counter (OTC) Medicine Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (Greece 2010-2018)
29
Table: OTC Medicine Sales Breakdown, 2007-2010
29
Pharmaceutical Trade Forecast
30
Table: Pharmaceutical Trade Data And Forecasts (Greece 2012-2018)
31
Table: Pharmaceutical Trade Data And Forecasts local currency (Greece 2012-2018)
32
Key Risks To BMI's Forecast Scenario
32
Macroeconomic Forecasts
34
Economic Analysis
34
Table: Greece - Economic Activity
38
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
39
Central And Eastern Europe Risk/Reward Ratings
39
Greece Risk/Reward Ratings
46
Rewards
46
Risks
47
Market Overview
48
Industry Trends And Developments
51
Epidemiology
51
Healthcare Sector
53
Healthcare Sector Developments
56
Healthcare Insurance
62
Healthcare Infrastructure
63
Table: Inpatient Facilities And Beds By Speciality, 2008
64
Table: Outpatient Facilities And Beds By Region, 2008
65
Research And Development
66
Clinical Trials
67
Regulatory Development
68
Intellectual Property Regime
69
Pricing Regime
70
Reimbursement Regime
75
Competitive Landscape
78
Company Activity
79
Government Activity
80
Parallel Pharmaceutical Exports
81
Pharmaceutical Retail Sector
81
Table: Pharmacies By Region, 2007-2009
83
Company Profile
84
Alapis Pharma
84
Elpen
86
Genesis Pharma
88
Kleva
90
Lavipharm
91
Pharmathen
93
Vianex
95
Abbott Laboratories
97
GlaxoSmithKline
99
Merck Sharp & Dohme
101
Novartis
103
Sanofi
105
Pfizer
107
Demographic Forecast
109
Table: Greece's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
110
Table: Greece's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
111
Table: Greece's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
112
Table: Greece's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
112
Glossary
113
Methodology
115
Pharmaceutical Expenditure Forecast Model
115
Healthcare Expenditure Forecast Model
115
Notes On Methodology
116
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
117
Ratings Overview
118
Table: Pharmaceutical Risk/Reward Ratings Indicators
118
Indicator Weightings
119

The Greece Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s forecasts for drugs and healthcare expenditure and imports and exports, focusing on the growth outlook for the prescription, OTC, patented drugs and generics market segments.

BMI's Greece Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report provides industry professionals, strategists, company executives, investors, analysts and sales/marketing heads with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Greece pharmaceutical and healthcare industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's pharmaceutical and healthcare market forecasts for Greece, to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Greek pharmaceutical and healthcare market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Greek pharmaceutical and healthcare sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Greece.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors using our company profiles (including SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and competitive landscape tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

An at-a-glance perspective on the latest regulatory developments, key forecast indicators and major corporate developments, covering the prescription, OTC and generics markets. The pharmaceuticals and healthcare SWOT outlines strategic factors that affect the basic assumptions underpinning BMI’s forecast analysis, and taken together with BMI’s political, economic and business environment SWOTs, it gives a complete overview of market climate.

BMI Industry Forecast Scenario

Industry forecasts to end-2019 for all key indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts:

  • Healthcare: Total healthcare expenditure (USDbn), healthcare expenditure (% of GDP), healthcare expenditure per capita (USD), hospital beds, doctors, and birth & mortality rates (all per ‘000 population).
  • Pharmaceutical Market: Drug expenditure in USDbn, % of GDP and per capita (USD).
  • Patented Drug Market: Prescription drug sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
  • Generic Drug Market: Generic product sales (USDbn), generic sales (% of total sales).
  • OTC Drug Market: OTC sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
  • Macroeconomic Forecasts: Nominal and real GDP, % real GDP growth, % private consumption growth, % industrial output growth, % consumer price index, % GDP price deflator, exports, imports, trade balance, current account balance, foreign direct investment, exchange rate against USD, government expenditure and external debt.

BMI’s Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Index provides investors (both national and multinational) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of the market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.

Market Summary

A snapshot of key market characteristics, including total size of the pharmaceuticals and healthcare segments, growth drivers, leading therapeutic areas and the competitive landscape

Industry Developments

A focus on government healthcare reforms, epidemiological trends, mergers and acquisitions, product launches, market entries, FDI activity, R&D, biotechnology, clinical trials and supply chain issues.

Regulatory Regime

Details of the industry regulatory framework and key legislation covering the licensing of new products/services, pricing and reimbursements, intellectual property, taxation and advertising, as well as analysis of the overall regulatory burden.

Competitive Landscape

The competitive landscape section provides comparative company analyses and index by USD sales and % share of total sales – for the total pharmaceutical sector, as well as the OTC, generics and distribution sub-sectors.

Company Profiles*

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc