Business Monitor International


Greece Defence & Security Report

Published 24 March 2014

  • 72 pages
  • Instant access to your report online and PDF format through your account library
  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
 
$1,295.00
Greece Defence & Security Report

BMI expects Greece to spend up to USD5.8bn on defence in 2014. In recent years, because of Greece's serious economic woes, the level of the national defence budget has steadily fallen. On average, Greece has spent USD6.6bn on defence annually between the years 2010 and 2013. We do not expect Greece to increase defence spending until towards the end of our forecast period, which concludes in 2018. In fact, we expect average annual Greek defence spending to fall to USD5.9bn between now and 2018.

Greece is one of the few NATO members which routinely maintains its levels of defence spending above two percent of its Gross Domestic Product per year. To this end, between 2015 and 2018 we expect Greece to spend an average of 2.4 percent of its GDP on defence.

Greece is a small-scale exporter of defence materiel, but a large-scale importer of military equipment. In common with several NATO countries, Greece relies on imports of equipment from suppliers in the United States and elsewhere in Europe. We have observed that between 2010 and 2013, Greece has maintained a defence trade deficit which has been worth on average USD3.4mn annually. In 2014, we expect the value of the Greek defence trade surplus to reach USD1.6mn. We expect this to herald a period of defence trade surplus for Greece, which we forecast to first climb to USD9.2mn by 2018.

We have given Greece and overall security risk rating of 70 for Q314. On average, the country has scored an overall security risk rating of 71 for the period January 2007 until Q314. As the discussion below will illustrate, Greece has a low risk of becoming involved in a major interstate conflict. Moreover, the country also faces a low risk of experiencing a major terrorist attack. Nevertheless, we consider Greece to be at a slightly higher risk of experiencing significant levels of criminal activity.

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
8
Greece Defence SWOT
8
Greece Security SWOT
9
Political
10
Economic
11
Business Environment
12
Industry Forecast
13
Armed Forces
13
Table: Greece's Armed Forces ('000 personnel, unless otherwise stated)
13
Table: Manpower Available For Military Services (aged 16-49, unless otherwise stated)
14
Defence Expenditure
14
Table: Defence Expenditure
15
Table: Defence Expenditure Scenario - Changing % Of GDP (US$mn)
16
Defence Trade
16
Table: Greece's Defence Exports (US$mn)
17
Table: Greece's Defence Imports (US$mn)
17
Table: Greece's Defence Trade Balance (US$mn)
17
Macroeconomic Forecasts
18
Macroeconomic Forecast
18
Economic Analysis
24
Table: Greece - Economic Activity
29
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
30
Security Risk Analysis
30
Table: Europe Security Risk Ratings
30
Table: Europe State Terrorism Vulnerability To Terrorism Index
31
Market Overview
33
Greece Market Overview
33
Arms Trade Overview
33
Table: Key Players In The Greek Defence Industry
34
Armed Forces and Government Spending
34
Table: Foreign Deployments
43
Industry Trends and Developments
44
Arms Trade Overview
44
Industry Trends And Developments
46
Political Outlook
46
Domestic Politics
46
Table: Political Overview
48
Long-Term Political Outlook
49
Security Overview
52
External Security
52
Internal Security
56
Table: Insurgent Groups In Greece
56
Company Profile
59
Hellenic Defence Systems
59
Intracom Defence Electronics
61
Regional Overview
63
Europe Security Overview
63
Global Industry Overview
71
Global Political Outlook
71
Eurozone
71
Iran War Risks Rising In 2013
72
Syrian Conflict To Continue, Post-Assad
73
Caucasus At Risk Of Armenia-Azerbaijan War
73
Korean Peninsula Facing Mixed Outlook
74
Asia's Maritime Island Disputes
74
Table: Election Timetable, 2013
75
Demographic Forecast
79
Table: Greece's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
80
Table: Greece's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
81
Table: Greece's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
82
Table: Greece's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
82
Methodology
83
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
83
Defence Industry
84
Sources
84```

The Greece Defence & Security Report features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s independent forecasts for national and international security, the defence industry, military expenditure, employment in arms production, and arms imports and exports, as well as examining industry trends and prospects, national and multinational arms producers and the regulatory environment.

BMI's Greece Defence & Security Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and regional competitive intelligence on the Greek defence and security industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent defence and security industry forecasts on Greece to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and strategic business planning in the Greek defence and security market.
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    Coverage

    Global and Regional Political Outlooks

    A strategic overview of the world's major political risks, identifying countries facing leadership successions and nations at risk of upheaval, inter-state conflict or separatism and insurgencies, plus a summary of the world's 'wild card' low-probability high-impact risks.

    SWOT Analysis

    Snapshot evaluation of the major issues affecting the defence and security sectors, economy and politics, with issues subdivided into 'Strengths', 'Weaknesses', 'Opportunities' and 'Threats'.

    Political Risk Assessment

    Drawing on BMI's heritage of more than 25 years of Country Risk analysis, this comprehensively evaluates the key risks to domestic politics and foreign relations, focusing on issues most likely to affect either domestic security or the defence sector.

    Security Risk Analysis

    BMI's proprietary Security Risk Rankings provide a reliable - and country comparable - guide to conflict, terrorism and criminal risk, backed up by our analyst's latest assessment of each component. Furthermore, drawing on our country risk expertise, we assess the state's vulnerability to a serious - or prolonged - terrorist campaign.

    Armed Forces Spending/Expenditure

    The reports contain a detailed breakdown of areas of expenditure by the armed forces, these include spending on international deployments, WMDs and missile defence systems as well as individual breakdowns of the cost-per-soldier.

    Domestic Security Overview

    The domestic security overview lists the various potential internal security threats facing a country, ranging from internal security issues such as terrorism, cyber terrorism, crime and drugs, to external security issues including general defence procedures and potential threats from specific countries.

    BMI Industry Forecast Scenario

    Historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for key industry indicators supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast.

    Budgets & Expenditure: Defence expenditure (local currency and US$bn); defence expenditure (% of total budget); defence expenditure (% of GDP); defence expenditure per capita, US$; defence budget (local currency and US$bn).

    Employment: Employment in arms production (`000s); employment in arms production (% of labour force).

    Macroeconomic: BMI's forecasts and analysis of all headline macroeconomic indicators, including real GDP growth, inflation, fiscal balance, trade balance, current account and external debt.

    Company Profiles

    Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

    Domestic Security Overview

    The reports also provide a regional overview which details specific issues and flashpoints affecting , along with potential risks in the coming year.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc