BMI expects Greece to spend up to USD5.8bn on defence in 2014. In recent years, because of Greece's serious economic woes, the level of the national defence budget has steadily fallen. On average, Greece has spent USD6.6bn on defence annually between the years 2010 and 2013. We do not expect Greece to increase defence spending until towards the end of our forecast period, which concludes in 2018. In fact, we expect average annual Greek defence spending to fall to USD5.9bn between now and 2018.
Greece is one of the few NATO members which routinely maintains its levels of defence spending above two percent of its Gross Domestic Product per year. To this end, between 2015 and 2018 we expect Greece to spend an average of 2.4 percent of its GDP on defence.
Greece is a small-scale exporter of defence materiel, but a large-scale importer of military equipment. In common with several NATO countries, Greece relies on imports of equipment from suppliers in the United States and elsewhere in Europe. We have observed that between 2010 and 2013, Greece has maintained a defence trade deficit which has been worth on average USD3.4mn annually. In 2014, we expect the value of the Greek defence trade surplus to reach USD1.6mn. We expect this to herald a period of defence trade surplus for Greece, which we forecast to first climb to USD9.2mn by 2018.
We have given Greece and overall security risk rating of 70 for Q314. On average, the country has scored an overall security risk rating of 71 for the period January 2007 until Q314. As the discussion below will illustrate, Greece has a low risk of becoming involved in a major interstate conflict. Moreover, the country also faces a low risk of experiencing a major terrorist attack. Nevertheless, we consider Greece to be at a slightly higher risk of experiencing significant levels of criminal activity.
The Greece Defence & Security Report features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s independent forecasts for national and international security, the defence industry, military expenditure, employment in arms production, and arms imports and exports, as well as examining industry trends and prospects, national and multinational arms producers and the regulatory environment.
BMI's Greece Defence & Security Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and regional competitive intelligence on the Greek defence and security industry.
- Benchmark BMI's independent defence and security industry forecasts on Greece to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and strategic business planning in the Greek defence and security market.
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Global and Regional Political Outlooks
A strategic overview of the world's major political risks, identifying countries facing leadership successions and nations at risk of upheaval, inter-state conflict or separatism and insurgencies, plus a summary of the world's 'wild card' low-probability high-impact risks.
Snapshot evaluation of the major issues affecting the defence and security sectors, economy and politics, with issues subdivided into 'Strengths', 'Weaknesses', 'Opportunities' and 'Threats'.
Political Risk Assessment
Drawing on BMI's heritage of more than 25 years of Country Risk analysis, this comprehensively evaluates the key risks to domestic politics and foreign relations, focusing on issues most likely to affect either domestic security or the defence sector.
Security Risk Analysis
BMI's proprietary Security Risk Rankings provide a reliable - and country comparable - guide to conflict, terrorism and criminal risk, backed up by our analyst's latest assessment of each component. Furthermore, drawing on our country risk expertise, we assess the state's vulnerability to a serious - or prolonged - terrorist campaign.
Armed Forces Spending/Expenditure
The reports contain a detailed breakdown of areas of expenditure by the armed forces, these include spending on international deployments, WMDs and missile defence systems as well as individual breakdowns of the cost-per-soldier.
Domestic Security Overview
The domestic security overview lists the various potential internal security threats facing a country, ranging from internal security issues such as terrorism, cyber terrorism, crime and drugs, to external security issues including general defence procedures and potential threats from specific countries.
BMI Industry Forecast Scenario
Historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for key industry indicators supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast.
Budgets & Expenditure: Defence expenditure (local currency and US$bn); defence expenditure (% of total budget); defence expenditure (% of GDP); defence expenditure per capita, US$; defence budget (local currency and US$bn).
Employment: Employment in arms production (`000s); employment in arms production (% of labour force).
Macroeconomic: BMI's forecasts and analysis of all headline macroeconomic indicators, including real GDP growth, inflation, fiscal balance, trade balance, current account and external debt.
Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.
Domestic Security Overview
The reports also provide a regional overview which details specific issues and flashpoints affecting , along with potential risks in the coming year.