Business Monitor International


Ghana Oil & Gas Report

Published 27 March 2014

  • 102 pages
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$1,295.00
Ghana Oil & Gas Report

BMI View: Ghana is hop ing to capitalise on its Tullow- led foray into offshore production and repeat the short turnaround of three years from discovery to production that characterised Jubilee with the TEN Project . We estimate reserves in place (proven) at 672.3 bbl mn in 2 014, but that will jump to 727.5 bbl mn by 2018 when another Tullow- led Deepwater FPSO project known as TEN hits full production. However , there are clouds on the horizon including onshore delays that have forced Jubilee to consider slowing production to deal with an associated gas issue and a marine boundary dispute that could factor into development scenarios. But it appears the country and its neighbour Cote d'Ivoire are working hard and fast to iron out old colonial border issues and maintain momentum. Ghana's combination of project success, high exploration activity and commendably low Above Ground Risk have pushed it up our Risk Rewards Rankings to stand 3 rd on the African continent .

As for production, we forecast a similar uptick. Production from Jubilee is forecast to be up 27% in 2014 to an average of 139,800 boe/d, jumping to 283,700 boe/d in 2021 coming from Jubilee, its satellite field 1A, TEN and potentially other developments. The value of the production this year will come in at US$5.2 bn rising to US$9.7 billion in 2021.

Major Developments In Ghana:

Tullow And TEN: TEN stands for Tweneboa, Enyenra and Ntomme or the Greater Tweneboa. It was sanctioned for development by its partners in May 2013 and will come online in 2016. Tullow has already confirmed that TEN contains reserves of 250mn barrels of oil equivalent (boe), with possible reserves providing upside potential of 1.4bn boe.

The TEN project is under development, with an FPSO undergoing commissioning in South East Asia and three shuttle tankers nearing completion in China, according to Tullow CEO Aiden Heaney.

Jubilee Under Onshore Gas Pressure: Gas reserves are a bit of a mixed blessing at this point. We...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Industry Forecast
11
Oil And Gas Reserves
11
Table: Ghana Proven Oil & Gas Reserves And Total Petroleum Data, 2012-2017
13
Table: Hydrocarbons Production, Consumption and Net Exports
13
Table: Ghana Proven Oil & Gas Reserves And Petroleum Data, 2018-2023
14
Table: Hydrocarbons Production, Consumption and Net Exports
14
Oil Supply And Demand
15
Table: Ghana Oil Production And Net Exports, 2012-2017
15
Table: Ghana Oil Production And Net Exports, 2018-2023
16
Refining And Oil Products Trade
18
Table: Ghana Refining - Production and Consumption
19
Table: Ghana Refining - Production and Consumption
19
Gas Supply And Demand
21
Table: Ghana Gas Production, Consumption And Net Exports, 2012-2017
21
Table: Ghana Gas Production, Consumption And Net Exports, 2018-2023
22
Table: Ghana Power Sector
24
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
28
Africa - Risk/Reward Ratings
28
Table: BMI's Africa Oil And Gas Risk/Reward Ratings
29
Riches Lie Underground, While Above-Ground Risks Continue To Loom
29
Table: BMI's Africa Upstream Risk/Reward Ratings
31
An Underwhelming Downstream
36
Table: BMI's Africa Downstream Risk/Reward Ratings
36
Ghana - Risk/Reward Ratings
40
Market Overview
41
Ghana Energy Market Overview
41
Overview/State Role
41
Licensing And Regulation
42
Licensing Rounds
43
International Energy Relations
43
Oil And Gas Infrastructure
44
Oil Refineries
44
Table: Downstream Projects
45
Service Stations
45
Oil Terminals/Ports
46
Gas Pipelines
46
Competitive Landscape
48
Competitive Landscape Summary
48
Table: Key Players - Ghana Energy Sector
49
Table: Key Upstream Players
49
Table: Key Downstream Player
50
Company Profile
51
Tullow Oil
51
Kosmos Energy
55
Other Summaries
58
Regional Overview
61
Africa Overview
61
Offshore Rising
61
Unconventionals : New Frontier
64
East Africa: Offshore Gas, Onshore Oil
64
Downstream Blues
66
High-Risk Continent
68
Global Industry Overview
71
Global Energy Market Overview
71
Appendix
79
Africa - Regional Appendix
79
Table: Oil Consumption - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 ('000b/d)
79
Table: Oil Consumption - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2022 ('000b/d)
80
Table: Oil Production - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 ('000b/d)
80
Table: Oil Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2022 ('000b/d)
81
Table: Refining Capacity - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 ('000b/d)
82
Table: Refining Capacity - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2022 ('000b/d)
82
Table: Gas Consumption - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 (bcm)
83
Table: Gas Consumption - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2022 (bcm)
84
Table: Gas Production - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 (bcm)
84
Table: Gas Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2022 (bcm)
85
Table: LNG Net Exports - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 (bcm)
86
Table: LNG Net Exports - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2022 (bcm)
86
Ghana - Refined Products Breakdown, 10-Year Forecasts
87
Table: Ghana Refined Petroleum Products, Production Breakdown, 2012 -2017
87
Table: Ghana Refined Petroleum Products, Production Breakdown, 2018 -2023
88
Table: Ecuador Refined Petroleum Products, Consumption Breakdown, 2012-2017
89
Table: Ghana Refined Petroleum Products, Consumption Breakdown, 2018-2023
90
Table: Ghana Refined Petroleum Products, Net Exports Breakdown, 2012-2017
91
Table: Ghana Refined Petroleum Products, Net Exports Breakdown, 2018-2023
92
Glossary
94
Table: Glossary Of Terms
94
Methodology
96
Industry Forecast Methodology
96
Source
98
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
98
Table: Bmi's Oil & Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Ratings
100
Table: Weighting
102

The Ghana Oil & Gas Report has been researched at source and features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s independent forecasts for Ghana including major indicators for oil, gas and LNG, covering all major indicators including reserves, production, consumption, refining capacity, prices, export volumes and values. The report includes full analysis of industry trends and prospects, national and multinational companies and changes in the regulatory environment.

BMI's Ghana Oil & Gas Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Ghanaian oil and gas industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent oil and gas industry forecasts for Ghana to test consensus views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Ghanaian oil and gas market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Ghanaian oil and gas sector through reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Ghana.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and Competitive Landscape Tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI's key forecasts and industry analysis, covering oil and gas reserves, supply, demand and refining, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.

Regional Overview

Regional perspective on size and value of industry sector; comparative rankings by production, refining, imports and exports of oil, gas and LNG.

Business Environment Ratings

BMI's Oil and Gas Business Environment Ratings provide a country-comparative Risk-Reward Ratings index aimed at investors (independents, NOCs, IOCs and oil services companies) in the upstream and downstream markets.

The ratings methodology makes sophisticated use of more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points and is part of BMI's integrated Country Risk-Industry Ratings products.

Oil Market Outlook and Oil Products Outlook

Based on our country coverage of over 99% of global oil and gas production and consumption, BMI provides demand, supply and price forecasts to end-2018 for oil, gas and oil products

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:

Pricing: Oil price (US$/bbl, WTI, Brent, OPEC basket, Urals); Oil products prices (unleaded gasoline, gasoil/diesel, jet/kerosene - US$/bbl) at global hubs

Production, Consumption, Capacity and Reserves: Proven oil reserves (bn barrels), production, consumption, refinery capacity and throughputs (`000b/d); Proven gas reserves (tcm), production and consumption (bcm)

Imports and Exports: Oil exports/imports (`000b/d), value of oil exports/imports (US$mn - BMI base case); Value of oil exports at constant US$50/bbl and constant US$100/bbl (US$mn); Gas exports/imports (bcm), Value of gas exports/imports (US$mn); Value of gas exports/imports at constant US$50/bbl and US$100/bbl (US$mn); Value of petroleum exports/imports (US$mn); Value of petroleum exports/imports at constant US$50/bbl and US$100/bbl (US$mn)

BMI Macroeconomic Forecasts

BMI forecasts to end-2018 for all headline macroeconomic indicators, including real GDP growth, inflation, fiscal balance, trade balance, current account and external debt.

Competitive Landscape

Comparative company analyses by US$ sales, % share of total sales, number of employees, year established, ownership structure, oil production ('000b/d), gas production (bcm), downstream capacity ('000b/d) and % market share.

Company Profiles

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc