Business Monitor International


Ghana Oil & Gas Report

Published 17 September 2014

  • 102 pages
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$1,295.00
Ghana Oil & Gas Report

BMI View: We hold to our bullish outlook on the Ghanaian oil and gas sector and see an attractive business environment, supportive central government and substantial underexplored acreage continue to draw high-level investment s . Wit h a robust ramp-up in domestic oil production, we forecast strong growth in the country's crude oil exports. However, we flag increasingly oversaturated light, sweet crude markets as a potential threat to export revenue. Rising domestic consumption and limited refining output will also see Ghana become progressively more dependent on refined fuels import, across our forecast period.

Headline Forecasts (Ghana 2012-2018)
  2012e 2013e 2014f 2015f 2016f 2017f 2018f
Crude, NGPL & other liquids prod, 000b/d 78.4 108.9 103.5 134.5 164.7 209.5 216.9
Refined products production & ethanol, 000b/d 10.2 9.6 14.0 21.0 23.1 25.4 27.9
Refined products consumption & ethanol, 000b/d 78.3 84.8 87.3 89.9 91.7 93.5 98.2
Dry natural gas production, bcm 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5 0.9 1.2 1.2
Dry natural gas consumption, bcm 0.7 0.5 0.6 1.5 2.2 3.9 4.1
e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: Energy Commission of Ghana, National Petroleum Authority, Tema Oil Refinery, Volta River Authority, EIA, BMI

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The main trends and developments in Ghana's oil and gas sector are:

  • Ghana boasts significant, underexplored acreage offshore. Although our reserves forecasts remain relatively modest, we acknowledge strong upside risk from continued exploration.

  • The Atuabo plant, designed to process associated gas production from the Jubilee oil field, has faced repeated and severe delays. Allowing for commissioning, we do not expect the plant to come online before end-2014.

  • Due to the moratorium on gas flaring, associated gas production at Jubilee has acted as a major bottleneck on oil output. However,...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
8
Industry Forecast
9
Oil And Gas Reserves
9
Table: Ghana's Proven Oil & Gas Reserves, 2012-2017
9
Table: Ghana's Hydrocarbons Production, Consumption And Net Exports, 2012-2017
9
Table: Ghana's Proven Oil & Gas Reserves, 2018-2023
10
Table: Ghana's Hydrocarbons Production, Consumption And Net Exports, 2018-2023
10
Oil Supply And Demand
13
Table: Ghana's Oil Production And Net Exports, 2012-2017
13
Table: Ghana's Oil Production And Net Exports, 2018-2023
13
Refining And Oil Products Trade
15
Table: Ghana's Refining - Production And Consumption, 2012-2017
16
Table: Ghana's Refining - Production And Consumption, 2018-2023
16
Gas Supply And Demand
18
Table: Ghana's Gas Production, Consumption And Net Exports, 2012-2017
18
Table: Ghana's Gas Production, Consumption And Net Exports, 2018-2023
19
Table: Ghana's Power Sector
21
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
23
Africa - Risk/Reward Ratings
23
Table: BMI's Africa Oil And Gas Risk/Reward Ratings
24
Riches Lie Underground, While Above-Ground Risks Continue To Loom
24
Table: BMI's Africa Upstream Risk/Reward Ratings
26
An Underwhelming Downstream
31
Table: BMI's Africa Downstream Risk/Reward Ratings
31
Ghana - Risk/Reward Ratings
34
Market Overview
36
Ghana Energy Market Overview
36
Overview/State Role
36
Licensing And Regulation
37
Licensing Rounds
38
International Energy Relations
38
Oil And Gas Infrastructure
39
Oil Refineries
39
Table: Downstream Projects
40
Service Stations
41
Oil Terminals/Ports
41
Gas Pipelines
41
Competitive Landscape
43
Competitive Landscape Summary
43
Table: Key Players - Ghana Energy Sector
44
Table: Key Upstream Players
45
Table: Key Downstream Player
45
Company Profile
46
Tullow Oil
46
Kosmos Energy
51
Other Summaries
55
Regional Overview
58
Africa Overview
58
Rising Offshore Interest
58
Unconventionals : New Frontier
60
East Africa: Offshore Gas, Onshore Oil
61
Downstream Blues
64
High-Risk Continent
66
Global Industry Overview
70
Global Energy Market Overview
70
OPEC Reconsiders Modus Operandi
72
Production Outages Look Likely To Persist
73
Global Oil Demand Picks Up
74
Capex Growth Cycle Shifting Gears
76
Table: BMI Oil Price Forecasts, Annual Average, USD/bbl
76
Appendix
79
Africa - Regional Appendix
79
Table: Oil Consumption - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 ('000b/d)
79
Table: Oil Consumption - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 ('000b/d)
80
Table: Oil Production - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 ('000b/d)
80
Table: Oil Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 ('000b/d)
81
Table: Refining Capacity - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 ('000b/d)
82
Table: Refining Capacity - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 ('000b/d)
82
Table: Gas Consumption - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 (bcm)
83
Table: Gas Consumption - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 (bcm)
84
Table: Gas Production - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 (bcm)
84
Table: Gas Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 (bcm)
85
Table: LNG Net Exports - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 (bcm)
86
Table: LNG Net Exports - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 (bcm)
86
Ghana - Refined Products Breakdown, 10-Year Forecasts
87
Table: Ghana Refined Petroleum Products, Production Breakdown, 2012-2017
87
Table: Ghana Refined Petroleum Products, Production Breakdown, 2018-2023
88
Table: Ghana Refined Petroleum Products, Consumption Breakdown, 2012-2017
89
Table: Ghana Refined Petroleum Products, Consumption Breakdown, 2018-2023
90
Table: Ghana Refined Petroleum Products, Net Exports Breakdown, 2012-2017
91
Table: Ghana Refined Petroleum Products, Net Exports Breakdown, 2018-2023
92
Glossary
94
Table: Glossary Of Terms
94
Methodology
96
Industry Forecast Methodology
96
Source
98
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
98
Table: Bmi's Oil & Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Ratings
100
Table: Weighting
101

The Ghana Oil & Gas Report has been researched at source and features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s independent forecasts for Ghana including major indicators for oil, gas and LNG, covering all major indicators including reserves, production, consumption, refining capacity, prices, export volumes and values. The report includes full analysis of industry trends and prospects, national and multinational companies and changes in the regulatory environment.

BMI's Ghana Oil & Gas Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Ghanaian oil and gas industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent oil and gas industry forecasts for Ghana to test consensus views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Ghanaian oil and gas market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Ghanaian oil and gas sector through reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Ghana.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and Competitive Landscape Tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI's key forecasts and industry analysis, covering oil and gas reserves, supply, demand and refining, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.

Regional Overview

Regional perspective on size and value of industry sector; comparative rankings by production, refining, imports and exports of oil, gas and LNG.

Business Environment Rankings

BMI's Oil and Gas Business Environment Rankings provide a country-comparative Risk-Reward Rankings index aimed at investors (independents, NOCs, IOCs and oil services companies) in the upstream and downstream markets.

The rankings methodology makes sophisticated use of more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points and is part of BMI's integrated Country Risk-Industry Rankings products.

Oil Market Outlook and Oil Products Outlook

Based on our country coverage of over 99% of global oil and gas production and consumption, BMI provides demand, supply and price forecasts to end-2018 for oil, gas and oil products

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:

Pricing: Oil price (US$/bbl, WTI, Brent, OPEC basket, Urals); Oil products prices (unleaded gasoline, gasoil/diesel, jet/kerosene - US$/bbl) at global hubs

Production, Consumption, Capacity and Reserves: Proven oil reserves (bn barrels), production, consumption, refinery capacity and throughputs (`000b/d); Proven gas reserves (tcm), production and consumption (bcm)

Imports and Exports: Oil exports/imports (`000b/d), value of oil exports/imports (US$mn - BMI base case); Value of oil exports at constant US$50/bbl and constant US$100/bbl (US$mn); Gas exports/imports (bcm), Value of gas exports/imports (US$mn); Value of gas exports/imports at constant US$50/bbl and US$100/bbl (US$mn); Value of petroleum exports/imports (US$mn); Value of petroleum exports/imports at constant US$50/bbl and US$100/bbl (US$mn)

BMI Macroeconomic Forecasts

BMI forecasts to end-2018 for all headline macroeconomic indicators, including real GDP growth, inflation, fiscal balance, trade balance, current account and external debt.

Competitive Landscape

Comparative company analyses by US$ sales, % share of total sales, number of employees, year established, ownership structure, oil production ('000b/d), gas production (bcm), downstream capacity ('000b/d) and % market share.

Company Profiles

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc