Business Monitor International


Ghana Oil & Gas Report

Published 04 December 2014

  • 102 pages
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$1,295.00
Ghana Oil & Gas Report

BMI View: We hold to our bullish view on the Ghana oil and gas sector, as production from Jubilee, TEN and Sankofa support rising production growth. Rapid economic expansion will also see a strong increase in consumption. And as consumption growth begins to outpace production, we forecast a mounting dependency on imported fuels and natural gas, at the end of our forecast period.

Headline Forecasts (Ghana 2012-2018)
  2012 2013e 2014f 2015f 2016f 2017f 2018f
Crude, NGPL & other liquids prod, 000b/d 78.4 91.7 102.7 117.1 122.9 172.1 206.5
Dry natural gas production, bcm 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.8 1.0 1.0 1.4
Dry natural gas consumption, bcm 0.7 0.5 0.5 1.2 2.0 2.5 2.9
Refined products production & ethanol, 000b/d 10.2 9.6 14.0 21.0 23.1 25.4 27.9
Refined products consumption & ethanol, 000b/d 78.3 84.8 91.5 95.2 98.0 100.0 103.0
e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: Energy Commission, World Bank, National Petroleum Authority, EIA, BMI

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The main trends and developments in Ghana's oil and gas sector are:

  • Ghana boasts significant, underexplored acreage offshore. Although our reserves forecasts remain modest, we acknowledge strong upside risk from continued exploration.

  • Due to the moratorium on gas flaring, associated gas production at Jubilee has acted as a major bottleneck on oil output. However, with Atuabo brought online in the fourth quarter of 2014, we forecast strong oil and gas production growth from 2015.

  • Rapid economic growth looks set to support robust oil and gas consumption growth. However, due to limited domestic gas production and low refinery output, we see Ghana increasingly dependent on imports to meet rising domestic demand.

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
Table: Headline Forecasts (Ghana 2012-2018)
7
SWOT
8
Industry Forecast
9
Upstream Exploration
9
Table: Proven Oil and Gas Reserves (Ghana 2012-2017)
9
Table: Proven Oil and Gas Reserves (Ghana 2018-2023)
9
Upstream Projects
12
Table: Ghana Upstream Projects
12
Upstream Production - Oil
13
Table: Oil Production (Ghana 2012-2017)
13
Table: Oil Production (Ghana 2018-2023)
13
Upstream Production - Gas
15
Table: Gas Production (Ghana 2012-2017)
15
Table: Gas Production (Ghana 2018-2023)
15
Refining
17
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Ghana 2012-2017)
17
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Ghana 2018-2023)
17
Refined Fuels Consumption
20
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Ghana 2012-2017)
20
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Ghana 2018-2023)
20
Gas Consumption
23
Table: Gas Consumption (Ghana 2012-2017)
23
Table: Gas Consumption (Ghana 2018-2023)
23
Trade - Oil
26
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Ghana 2012-2017)
26
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Ghana 2018-2023)
26
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Ghana 2012-2017)
28
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Ghana 2018-2023)
28
Table: Total Net Oil Exports - Crude and Products (Ghana 2012-2017)
30
Table: Total Net Oil Exports - Crude and Products (Ghana 2018-2023)
30
Trade - Gas (Pipeline & LNG)
31
Table: Gas Net Exports (Ghana 2012-2017)
31
Table: Gas Net Exports (Ghana 2018-2023)
31
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
34
Africa - Risk/Reward Ratings
34
Table: BMI's Africa Oil And Gas Risk/Reward Ratings
34
Riches Lie Underground, While Above-Ground Risks Continue To Loom
37
Table: BMI's Africa Upstream Risk/Reward Ratings
37
A Dimming Outlook for Emergent Producers
37
Angola in the Ascendant
38
Brightening Horizons to the West
39
Mature Producers Continue to Disappoint
39
An Underwhelming Downstream
41
Table: BMI's Africa Downstream Risk/Reward Ratings
41
Ghana - Risk/Reward Ratings
42
Market Overview
43
Ghana Energy Market Overview
43
Overview/State Role
43
Licensing And Regulation
44
Licensing Rounds
45
International Energy Relations
45
Oil And Gas Infrastructure
46
Oil Refineries
46
Table: Downstream Projects
47
Service Stations
48
Oil Terminals/Ports
48
Gas Pipelines
48
Competitive Landscape
50
Competitive Landscape Summary
50
Table: Key Players - Ghana Energy Sector
51
Table: Key Upstream Players
52
Table: Key Downstream Player
52
Company Profile
53
Tullow Oil
53
Kosmos Energy
58
Other Summaries
61
Regional Overview
66
Africa Overview
66
Rising Offshore Interest
66
Unconventionals : New Frontier
69
East Africa: Offshore Gas, Onshore Oil
70
Downstream Blues
72
High-Risk Continent
75
Global Industry Overview
78
Global Energy Market Overview
78
Appendix
84
Global - Crude Oil, Refined Fuels And Natural Gas Prices, 10-year Forecasts
84
Table: Energy Price Forecasts, 2012-2017
84
Table: Energy Price Forecasts, 2018-2023
85
Africa - Regional Appendix
87
Table: Oil Consumption - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 ('000b/d)
87
Table: Oil Consumption - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 ('000b/d)
88
Table: Oil Production - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 ('000b/d)
88
Table: Oil Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 ('000b/d)
89
Table: Refining Capacity - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 ('000b/d)
90
Table: Refining Capacity - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 ('000b/d)
90
Table: Gas Consumption - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 (bcm)
91
Table: Gas Consumption - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 (bcm)
92
Table: Gas Production - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 (bcm)
92
Table: Gas Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 (bcm)
93
Table: LNG Net Exports - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 (bcm)
94
Table: LNG Net Exports - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 (bcm)
94
Ghana - Refined Products Breakdown, 10-Year Forecasts
95
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Production Breakdown (Ghana 2012-2017)
95
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Production Breakdown (Ghana 2018-2023)
96
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Consumption Breakdown (Ghana 2012-2017)
97
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Consumption Breakdown (Ghana 2018-2023)
98
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Net Exports Breakdown (Ghana 2012-2017)
99
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Net Exports Breakdown (Ghana 2018-2023)
100
Ghana - Total Hydrocarbons, 10-year Forecasts
101
Table: Total Hydrocarbons Production, Consumption and Net Exports (Ghana 2012-2017)
101
Table: Total Hydrocarbons Production, Consumption and Net Exports (Ghana 2018-2023)
102
Glossary
103
Table: Glossary Of Terms
103
Methodology
105
Industry Forecast Methodology
105
Source
107
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
107
Table: Bmi's Oil & Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Ratings
109
Table: Weighting
110

The Ghana Oil & Gas Report has been researched at source and features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s independent forecasts for Ghana including major indicators for oil, gas and LNG, covering all major indicators including reserves, production, consumption, refining capacity, prices, export volumes and values. The report includes full analysis of industry trends and prospects, national and multinational companies and changes in the regulatory environment.

BMI's Ghana Oil & Gas Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Ghanaian oil and gas industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent oil and gas industry forecasts for Ghana to test consensus views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Ghanaian oil and gas market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Ghanaian oil and gas sector through reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Ghana.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and Competitive Landscape Tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI's key forecasts and industry analysis, covering oil and gas reserves, supply, demand and refining, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.

Regional Overview

Regional perspective on size and value of industry sector; comparative rankings by production, refining, imports and exports of oil, gas and LNG.

Business Environment Rankings

BMI's Oil and Gas Business Environment Rankings provide a country-comparative Risk-Reward Rankings index aimed at investors (independents, NOCs, IOCs and oil services companies) in the upstream and downstream markets.

The rankings methodology makes sophisticated use of more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points and is part of BMI's integrated Country Risk-Industry Rankings products.

Oil Market Outlook and Oil Products Outlook

Based on our country coverage of over 99% of global oil and gas production and consumption, BMI provides demand, supply and price forecasts to end-2018 for oil, gas and oil products

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:

Pricing: Oil price (US$/bbl, WTI, Brent, OPEC basket, Urals); Oil products prices (unleaded gasoline, gasoil/diesel, jet/kerosene - US$/bbl) at global hubs

Production, Consumption, Capacity and Reserves: Proven oil reserves (bn barrels), production, consumption, refinery capacity and throughputs (`000b/d); Proven gas reserves (tcm), production and consumption (bcm)

Imports and Exports: Oil exports/imports (`000b/d), value of oil exports/imports (US$mn - BMI base case); Value of oil exports at constant US$50/bbl and constant US$100/bbl (US$mn); Gas exports/imports (bcm), Value of gas exports/imports (US$mn); Value of gas exports/imports at constant US$50/bbl and US$100/bbl (US$mn); Value of petroleum exports/imports (US$mn); Value of petroleum exports/imports at constant US$50/bbl and US$100/bbl (US$mn)

BMI Macroeconomic Forecasts

BMI forecasts to end-2018 for all headline macroeconomic indicators, including real GDP growth, inflation, fiscal balance, trade balance, current account and external debt.

Competitive Landscape

Comparative company analyses by US$ sales, % share of total sales, number of employees, year established, ownership structure, oil production ('000b/d), gas production (bcm), downstream capacity ('000b/d) and % market share.

Company Profiles

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc