Business Monitor International


Ghana Business Forecast Report

Published 26 August 2014

  • 37 pages
  • Instant access to your report online and PDF format through your account library
  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
 
$1,195.00
Ghana Business Forecast Report

Core Views:

  • Economic growth in Ghana will be buoyant over 2015-2018 thanks to improving power supplies, rising oil production and strong investment inflows - the latter encouraged by IMF policy oversight.

  • Foreign investment inflows will be robust thanks to Ghana's abundant natural resources and relative political stability.

  • The current account deficit and fiscal deficit will remain key structural weaknesses in the economy.

  • Peaceful protests against economic hardship will continue, despite the fact that the government has approached the IMF for assistance. Ghanaians are wary of the conditions that may be attached to IMF support.

Major Forecast Changes:

  • We have adjusted our budget forecasts following news that Ghana will enter an IMF program. We no longer expect the budget deficit to swell in the next election year - 2016 - thanks to an anticipated improvement in policy monitoring.

Key Risks To Outlook:

  • The Ghanaian cedi remains vulnerable amid the sizeable current account deficit and could depreciate more swiftly than we anticipate.

  • Mismanagement of oil revenues - perhaps stemming from insufficient institutional capacity - could dent investor perceptions.

  • The Ebola virus could spread to Ghana, causing severe illness and death, and disrupting economic activity.

Macroeconomic Forecasts (Ghana 2012-2018)
Indicator 2012 2013 2014f 2015f 2016f 2017f 2018f
Nominal GDP, USDbn 39.4 39.4 34.0 36.9 40.5 45.4 49.5
Real GDP growth, % y-o-y 8.8 7.1 4.7 5.9 8.0 7.8 6.3
Consumer price inflation, % y-o-y, eop 8.8 13.5 12.7 15.0 11.0 8.0 8.0
Exchange rate GHS/USD, eop 1.90 2.38 3.30 3.67 4.07 4.29 4.51
Budget balance, % of GDP -11.5 -10.1 -9.6 -8.3 -7.4 -6.3 -6.0
Current account balance, % of GDP -12.5 -14.5 -12.4 -7.1 -6.0 -5.3 -5.2
National Sources/BMI

Click here to explore data

Table of Contents

Executive Summary
5
Core Views
5
Major Forecast Changes
5
Key Risks To Outlook
5
Chapter 1: Political Outlook
7
SWOT Analysis
7
BMI Political Risk Ratings
7
Domestic Politics
8
On The Ground: Protests Will Rumble On
8
Table: Political Overview
8
Long-Term Political Outlook
10
Oil To Prove A Critical Test For Polity
10
Chapter 2: Economic Outlook
13
SWOT Analysis
13
BMI Economic Risk Ratings
13
Economic Activity
14
Economic Recovery On The Horizon
14
Tab le: Ec onomic Acti vit y
14
Monetary Policy
16
BoG Hawkish But Hamstrung
16
Tab le: Moneta ry Polic y
16
Fiscal Policy
17
Supplementary Budget: Key Takeaways
17
Table: Fiscal Policy
18
Balance Of Payments
19
C/A Deficit Contracting But Will Weigh On Cedi
19
Table: Current Account
20
Chapter 3: 10-Year Forecast
23
The Ghanaian Economy To 2023
23
Oil To Boost Growth Over The Long Term
23
tab le: Long-Term Mac roeconomic Forecasts
23
Chapter 4: Business Environment
25
SWOT Analysis
25
BMI Business Environment Risk Ratings
25
Business Environment Outlook
26
Institutions
26
TABLE : BMI BUSINE SS AND OPER ATION RISK RATINGS
26
Tab le: BMI LE GAL FRAMEWOR K RATING
27
Table: LABOUR FORCE QUALITY
28
Infrastructure
29
TABLE : AFRICA - ANN UAL FDI INFLO WS
29
Tab le: TRADE AND INVE STMEN T RATINGS
30
Market Orientation
31
TABLE : TOP EXPOR T DESTINATION S, (USDMN)
31
Operational Risk
32
Chapter 5: BMI Global Assumptions
33
Global Outlook
33
US Revision Drags Down Forecast
33
Tab le: Globa l Assumpti ons
33
Table: Developed States, Real GDP GrowtH, %
34
Tab le: BMI VER SUS BLOO MBER G CON SEN SUS RE AL GDP GRO WTH FORE CASTS, %
34
Tab le: Em ergi ng Markets , Real GDP Growth , %
35

The Ghana Business Forecast Report helps businesses with market assessment, strategic planning and decision making to promote growth and profitability in The Ghana and is an essential tool for CEOs, Chairmen, Finance Directors/CFOs, Managing Directors, Marketing/Sales Directors with commercial interests in this emerging market..

An influential new analysis of The Ghana's economic, political and financial prospects through end-2017, just published by award-winning forecasters, Business Monitor International (BMI).

Key Uses

  • Forecast the pace and stability of The Ghana's economic and industry growth through end-2017.
  • Identify and evaluate adverse political and economic trends, to facilitate risk mitigation.
  • Assess the critical shortcomings of the business environment that pose hidden barriers and costs to corporate profitability.
  • Contextualise The Ghana's country risks against regional peers using BMI's country comparative Risk Ratings system.
  • Evaluate external threats to doing business in The Ghana, including currency volatility, the commodity price boom and protectionist policies.

The Ghana Business Forecast Report by Business Monitor International (BMI) includes three major sections: Economic Outlook, Political Outlook and Business Environment.

Economic Outlook:

How will the Ghanaian economic policy-making and performance impact on corporate profitability over 2013-2017?

BMI provides our fully independent 5-year forecasts for The Ghana through end-2017 for more than 50 economic and key industry indicators. We evaluate growth, and also forecast the impact of economic management.

Economic Outlook Contents

The Ghana Business Forecast Report features BMI's forecasts with supporting analysis for 2013 through to end-2017, set against government views and BMI's evaluation of global and regional prospects.

Key Areas Covered:

Data:

  • Full 10-year forecasts with data - for key macroeconomic variables including GDP (real growth and per capita), population, inflation, current account balance and the exchange rate.
  • BMI's comprehensive Risk Ratings system - rates each country worldwide for economic and political risk, and rates the business environment, within a global and regional context.

Written Analysis:

  • Economic Activity - real GDP growth, employment, inflation, consumption (retail sales and confidence).
  • Balance of Payments - trade and investment, current and capital account.
  • Monetary Policy - interest rate trends (bank lending and deposit rates) and inflation (producer price and consumer price).
  • Exchange Rate Policy - currency controls, foreign investment flows, exchange rates and foreign exchange reserves.
  • Fiscal Policy - macroeconomic strategy and policies, government finance and tax reforms.
  • Foreign Direct Investment - approvals, inflows and climate.
  • External Debt - debt profile (short and long-term plus public and private sector exposure).
  • Global Assumptions - forecasts for each year to end-2017 covering: major commodities, growth in key regions, inflation, and interest and exchange rates, in the United States, Japan, China and the eurozone.

Key Benefits

  • Rely upon BMI's 100% independent forecast scenarios for The Ghana and underlying assumptions - we take no advertising and are privately-owned.
  • Exploit the benefits of BMI's comprehensive and reliable macroeconomic database on The Ghana, sourced and fully maintained by BMI from an extensive network of private sector, government and multilateral contacts.
  • Gain key insights into the current and future direction of government economic policy, which could significantly affect your company's business prospects, from BMI's team of analysts and economists.

Political Outlook:

What are the political risks to doing business in The Ghana over the next 5-years?

BMI's The Ghana country Risk Ratings evaluate the short- and medium-term threats to political stability.

Political Outlook Contents

  • SWOT Analysis for the Ghanaian Market - Political Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats facing The Ghana.
  • Political Stability and Risk Assessment - BMI's Risk Ratings assess explicit short- and long-term risks to political stability; latest ratings, rankings and trends for The Ghana's risk are compared with regional and global averages.
  • Current Administration and Policy-making BMI assesses the threats to the continuity of economic policy, and likely changes to the business operating environment.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark The Ghana's risk profile against its neighbours, the global and regional average, allowing easy comparison of risks between key business markets.
  • Identify, evaluate and anticipate political and security risks to the business environment, and to your company's current operations and future plans.
  • Gain valuable insights into government and policy-making, through BMI's specialist team of analysts and economists, and their network of private and public sector sources.

Business Environment

Business Environment Risk Ratings with SWOT Analysis - Business environment Risk Ratings for The Ghana, benchmarked against ratings for regional neighbours.

Country Competitiveness - Competitiveness of The Ghana's business operating environment in supporting corporate growth and profitability, compared with regional neighbours.

Business Environment Contents

  • Domestic Environment - Transparency, cronyism and corruption; labour market flexibility; corporate tax burden; interest rate levels; sophistication of banking sector and stock market; levels of business confidence; infrastructure and IT.
  • Foreign Direct Investment - Analysis of foreign investment regime; foreign ownership laws; attractiveness of business environment to foreign investors.
  • Foreign Trade - Analysis of trading environment, government trade policy, liberalisation measures, tariffs and membership of trade areas.

Key Benefits

  • Assess your company's evolving exposure to country specific operational and business risks, using BMI's in-depth analysis of the legal and regulatory business environment.
  • Understand your market's comparative strengths and weaknesses in the key areas of commercial infrastructure and business institutions, using BMI's proprietary global Business Environment Risk Ratings.

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Testimonials

The sections that I find most interesting and useful are the macroeconomic data and forecasts for the country, top export destinations and economic activity. The indicators/analysis of these areas helps us orient our thinking, our assumptions and, consequently, our decisions in the commercial area.

Country Manager, DHL Express