Business Monitor International


Ghana Agribusiness Report

Published 22 January 2014

  • 93 pages
  • Instant access to your report online and PDF format through your account library
  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
 
$1,295.00
Ghana Agribusiness Report

BMI View: We continue to expect only minor production growth in Ghana's cocoa secto r in the short term owing to harvest delays on the back of dry weather , and there are considerable downside risks to production due to a decision by the Ghanaian government to end a fertiliser subsidy program me . Over the long term, we forecast relatively pedestrian growth in cocoa production owing to reduced farm revenues and structural concerns in the sector, particularly related to labour. We forecast mild production growth for Ghanaian corn in 2013/14, the result of high prices during the planting season . O ver the long term, however, we believe the country is likely to run a deficit due to strong demand . For livestock , we continue to expect Ghana to be a growing net importer of poultry over the long term on the back of strong demand growth.

Key Forecasts

  • Cocoa production growth to 2017/18: 28.2% to 1.1mn tonnes. Most of this growth will be due to base effects; however, we also expect significantly higher cocoa prices over the medium term owing to poor supply prospects.

  • Corn production growth to 2017/18: 15.0% to 1.95mn tonnes. Ghanaian corn yields remain low in relative terms, with production still dominated by smallholders making limited use of fertilisers, mechanisation, improved seeds and post-harvest facilities. However, government-subsidised fertilisers for corn as well as technical support will lead to a mild increase in production.

  • 2014 real GDP growth: 6.4% (down from 7.0% in 2013; predicted to average 6.8% from 2013 to 2018).

  • 2014 central bank policy rate: 17.00% end-2014 (up from 16.00% in 2013).

  • 2014 consumer price inflation (average): 12.6% (up from 11.6% in 2013).

Industry Developments

We have revised our forecasts upward and now see LIFFE cocoa prices averaging GBP1,850/tonne in 2014 before averaging higher in the following years. This compares with our previous forecast for an average price of GBP1,750/tonne in 2014....

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
8
SWOT Analysis
8
Politics
9
Economic
11
Business Environment
12
Industry Forecast
14
Table: Ghana Automotives Historical Data & Forecasts
14
Macroeconomic Forecasts
17
Economic Analysis
17
Table: Ghana - Economic Activity
22
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
23
Africa - Risk Reward/Ratings
23
Table: Autos Risk/Reward Ratings - Sub-Saharan Africa
26
Competitive Landscape
27
Company Profile
31
Company News Alert
31
Table: Top 20 SSA Consumer Markets, 2013
32
Nissan Ghana (Auto Parts Ltd)
33
Toyota Ghana
34
Regional Overview
35
Africa: Fruits of Investment A Key Theme For 2014
35
Competition Heats Up In Kenya
35
Hubs Developing-
36
Table: Sub-Saharan Africa Investment Projects
37
Divergent Fortunes Of Nigeria And South Africa
38
Global Industry Overview
40
Table: Passenger Car Sales November 2013 (CBUs)
40
Europe On Road To Recovery
40
Tax Hike Skews Japan's Outlook; US Hits Sweet 16
42
China Is BRIC Bright Spot
44
Demographic Forecast
47
Table: Ghana's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
48
Table: Ghana's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
49
Table: Ghana's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
50
Table: Ghana's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
50
Methodology
51
Industry Forecasts
51
Sector-Specific Methodology
52
Sources
52
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
53
Table: Automotive Risk/Reward Ratings Indicators And Weighting Of Indicators
54

The Ghana Agribusiness Report features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s market assessment and independent forecasts for production, consumption and trade across core agricultural commodities.

BMI's Ghana Agribusiness Report includes independent commodity price forecasting and analysis for key agricultural outputs, an overview of the agribusiness competitive landscape and a discussion of the downstream context of agricultural production in relation to country food consumption forecasts and composite food and beverage trade forecasts.

Key Benefits

  • Use BMI's independent industry forecasts to test other views - a key input for successful planning in dynamic agribusiness markets.
  • Apply BMI's medium-term commodity price analysis to assist with budgetary planning and the identification of investment opportunities and potential risks.
  • Assess the activities and market position of your competitors, partners and clients.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

An analytical summary of BMI's latest key industry forecasts and views, highlighting recent changes and key risks to the industry outlook for agribusiness in Ghana.

Industry SWOT Analysis

At-a-glance perspectives on the Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats facing the agricultural industry.

BMI Supply & Demand Forecasts

Divided into sections based on various diverse sectors in the agriculture market, the chapter provides insight into each market's agricultural industry, centred on sector forecasts to end-2018 for the consumption, production and trade of key agricultural commodities.

Consumption forecasts are accompanied by a discussion of the main drivers of consumption growth: macroeconomic factors, food processing trends, price movements and, increasingly, demand from the non-food sector.

Production forecasts examine the trends influencing BMI's production outlook: global demand, price increases, public and private sector investment and agricultural efficiency improvements.

Trade forecasts are accompanied by a discussion of the factors influencing a country's trade in agricultural goods, including domestic demand, global prices and government trade policies.

BMI's forecasts are accompanied by a Risks- to-Outlook assessment, which examines potential factors that could affect our existing forecast picture and the likelihood of their occurrence.

BMI's Commodity Price Analysis

Fundamental and technical analysis of the short- and medium-term price outlook for key agricultural commodities, based on globally-recognised benchmarks.

Downstream Analysis

Analysis of headline food and drink forecasts, including total food consumption, per capita food consumption and total sector trade, which provide important downstream intelligence for primary agricultural producers.

Featured Analysis

Includes relevant articles from BMI's daily analysis service. These can include long-term projections on agricultural imports and exports, our perceptions of the impacts of economic slowdown on key companies and subsectors within the Agribusiness industry in a given country, our analysis of fertilizer production as well as other relevant analysis of recent news and events on Store and Landing Pages.

Methodology & Sourcing

The Ghana Agribusiness Report is based on an extensive network of multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc