Business Monitor International


Ghana Agribusiness Report

Published 13 August 2014

  • 93 pages
  • Instant access to your report online and PDF format through your account library
  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
 
$1,295.00
Ghana Agribusiness Report

BMI View: The storm clouds which were gathering over the Ghanaian cocoa sector have been at least temporarily lifted by the news that the regulator COCOBOD   will continue to offer support to the sector in collaboration with the government. The free inputs and better infrastructure promised would enable cocoa farmers to make the most of a seller's market of tight supplies and galloping demand. Similar support for corn growers will enable continued improvements in yield, admittedly from a very low base. On the demand side, persistently high inflation will continue to squeeze spending power even in the face of steady economic growth. Meat consumption is likely to be particularly vulnerable to any further spikes in inflation and local poultry producers will require more than import restrictions to help them cope with high feed costs.

Key Forecasts

  • Cocoa production growth to 2017/18: 41.7% to 1.2mn tonnes. While some of this growth will be due to base effects, the government has committed to supplying free inputs and improving infrastructure and we also expect significantly higher cocoa prices over the medium term.

  • Corn production growth to 2017/18:  6.8% to 2.0mn tonnes. Ghanaian corn yields remain low in relative terms, with production still dominated by smallholders making limited use of fertilisers, mechanisation, improved seeds and post-harvest facilities. We expect government and NGO support to improve the situation and, while growth will not be outstanding, it should be noted that 2012/13 was an exceptional year.

  • 2014 real GDP growth: 4.7% (down from an estimated 7.1% in 2013; predicted to average 6.2% from 2014 to 2018).

  • 2014 consumer price inflation (eop):  12 .1% (down from 13.5% in 2013).

Agribusiness Market Value
BMI Market Value By Commodity (2010-2018)

Industry Developments

Financial difficulties at the country's main cocoa regulator (COCOBOD) had led to fears that it would have to reduce support to cocoa growers in order to stay...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
10
Agribusiness
10
Business Environment
12
Industry Forecast
14
Livestock Outlook
14
Table: Poultry Production & Consumption (Ghana 2013-2018)
15
Table: Pork Production & Consumption (Ghana 2013-2018)
15
Table: Beef Production & Consumption (Ghana 2013-2018)
16
Table: Poultry Production & Consumption (Ghana 2008-2013)
19
Table: Pork Production & Consumption (Ghana 2008-2013)
19
Table: Beef Production & Consumption (Ghana 2008-2013)
19
Grains Outlook
21
Table: Corn Production & Consumption (Ghana 2013-2018)
22
Table: Corn Production & Consumption (Ghana 2008-2013)
24
Cocoa Outlook
26
Table: Cocoa Production & Consumption (Ghana 2012-2018)
27
Table: Cocoa Production & Consumption (Ghana 2008-2013)
36
Commodity Price Analysis
38
Monthly Grains Strategy
38
Table: Select Commodities - Performance & BMI Forecasts
46
Monthly Softs Strategy
46
Table: Select Commodities - Performance & BMI Forecasts
55
Uptream Analysis
56
Africa Machinery Outlook
56
Table: Number Of Tractors Per 1,000ha Of Arable Land
56
Table: Farm Size By Region (2012)
60
Table: South Africa - New Tractor Sales Current Market Share In 2014 (%)
61
Africa GM Outlook
62
Table: Farm Size By Region
66
Africa Fertiliser Outlook
68
Downstream Analysis
75
Food
75
Food Consumption
75
Table: Food Consumption Indicators - Historical Data & Forecasts (Ghana 2011-2018)
76
Fish
76
Drink
77
Alcoholic Drinks
77
Table: Alcoholic Drinks Value/Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts (Ghana 2013-2018)
78
Soft Drinks
78
Table: Soft Drinks Value/Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts (Ghana 2013-2018)
79
Mass Grocery Retail
81
Regional Overview
82
Demographic Forecast
89
Table: Ghana's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
90
Table: Ghana's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
91
Table: Ghana's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
92
Table: Ghana's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
92
Methodology
93
Industry Forecast Methodology
93
Sector-Specific Methodology
94

The Ghana Agribusiness Report features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s market assessment and independent forecasts for production, consumption and trade across core agricultural commodities.

BMI's Ghana Agribusiness Report includes independent commodity price forecasting and analysis for key agricultural outputs, an overview of the agribusiness competitive landscape and a discussion of the downstream context of agricultural production in relation to country food consumption forecasts and composite food and beverage trade forecasts.

Key Benefits

  • Use BMI's independent industry forecasts to test other views - a key input for successful planning in dynamic agribusiness markets.
  • Apply BMI's medium-term commodity price analysis to assist with budgetary planning and the identification of investment opportunities and potential risks.
  • Assess the activities and market position of your competitors, partners and clients.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

An analytical summary of BMI's latest key industry forecasts and views, highlighting recent changes and key risks to the industry outlook for agribusiness in Ghana.

Industry SWOT Analysis

At-a-glance perspectives on the Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats facing the agricultural industry.

BMI Supply & Demand Forecasts

Divided into sections based on various diverse sectors in the agriculture market, the chapter provides insight into each market's agricultural industry, centred on sector forecasts to end-2018 for the consumption, production and trade of key agricultural commodities.

Consumption forecasts are accompanied by a discussion of the main drivers of consumption growth: macroeconomic factors, food processing trends, price movements and, increasingly, demand from the non-food sector.

Production forecasts examine the trends influencing BMI's production outlook: global demand, price increases, public and private sector investment and agricultural efficiency improvements.

Trade forecasts are accompanied by a discussion of the factors influencing a country's trade in agricultural goods, including domestic demand, global prices and government trade policies.

BMI's forecasts are accompanied by a Risks- to-Outlook assessment, which examines potential factors that could affect our existing forecast picture and the likelihood of their occurrence.

BMI's Commodity Price Analysis

Fundamental and technical analysis of the short- and medium-term price outlook for key agricultural commodities, based on globally-recognised benchmarks.

Downstream Analysis

Analysis of headline food and drink forecasts, including total food consumption, per capita food consumption and total sector trade, which provide important downstream intelligence for primary agricultural producers.

Featured Analysis

Includes relevant articles from BMI's daily analysis service. These can include long-term projections on agricultural imports and exports, our perceptions of the impacts of economic slowdown on key companies and subsectors within the Agribusiness industry in a given country, our analysis of fertilizer production as well as other relevant analysis of recent news and events on Store and Landing Pages.

Methodology & Sourcing

The Ghana Agribusiness Report is based on an extensive network of multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc