Business Monitor International


Germany Telecommunications Report

Published 01 September 2014

  • 141 pages
 
$1,295.00
Germany Telecommunications Report

BMI View : Consolidation is driving the German telecommunications market as operators strive to reinvent themselves as full co nverged service providers. O2 has acquire d E-Plus , Vodafone has gained control of Kabel Deutschland Group , and cable and broadband operators are exchanging assets that will bolster their presence in key cities. Low value voice and messaging services are being superseded by data-centric ser vices as more consumers demand ' everything everywhere' access. Consequently, business strategies are being reforged and investment budgets geared as much towards the development of differentiated services as next-generation infrastructure. The shift of one MVNO from low-value prepaid to high-value postpaid plans conveys the story set to play out over the next five years. BMI believes t he German competitive landscape is changing quickly and that many of today's players will not stay the course .

Key Data

  • Mobile subscriptions forecast to rise from 115.2mn in 2013 to 121.1mn by the end of 2018, despite continued net losses at Vodafone. Market is buoyed by robust MVNO expansion and customer migration to 4G (LTE).

  • Improved mobile subscriber mix and the loss of non revenue-generating inactive subscriptions at Vodafone (and likely also at O2 after the E-Plus acquisition) should lead to a small improvement in the rate of ARPU erosion. However, the trend remains downward overall. BMI forecasts industry average ARPUs to fall from EUR13.9 in 2013 to EUR12.3 in 2018.

Key Developments

In July 2014, Telefonica Deutschland (which operates in Germany under the O2 brand) completed its agreement to acquire rival E-Plus from KPN of the Netherlands. KPN acquired a 24% stake in the enlarged business (although it will quickly divest some of this stake) and EUR3.7bn in cash. The deal received approval from the European Commission after O2 undertook to hive off spectrum and network capacity to a new player; it signed an agreement...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
8
SWOT
10
Political
12
Economic
13
Business Environment
14
Industry Forecast
15
Mobile
15
Table: Telecoms Sector - Mobile - Historical Data & Forecasts (Denmark 2011-2018)
15
ARPU
16
Fixed-Line
17
Table: Telecoms Sector - Wireline - Historical Data & Forecasts (Denmark 2011-2018)
17
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
20
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
20
Changes At The Top
20
Table: Western Europe Telecoms - Risk/Rewards Ratings, Q314
24
Market Overview
25
Mobile
25
Regional Perspective
25
Table: Denmark Mobile Market Regional Comparison, 2013
26
Key Developments
26
Mobile Growth
27
Market Shares
27
Table: Denmark Mobile Market, Q114
29
Usage
30
MVNOs
31
Networks
32
Mobile Content
36
Mobile Contract Wins
40
Table: Mobile Contract Wins
40
Mobile Operator Data
41
Table: Denmark Mobile Market Overview
41
Table: TDC
41
Table: Telenor Denmark
42
Table: TeliaSonera
44
Table: 3 Denmark
45
Western Europe Mobile Content
46
Monetising Footfall
47
Interoperable M-Commerce A Stronger Proposition
48
Positioning Key To M2M Success
49
Regaining Control Of The Bill
51
Fixed-Line
53
Broadband
54
Table: Fixed Broadband Accesses by Technology, 2010-2013
56
Pay-TV
59
Converged Services
60
Industry Trends And Developments
62
Table: Industry Trends and Developments
63
Regulatory Development
64
Regulatory Overview
64
Table: Denmark: Regulatory Bodies And Their Responsibilities
65
Competitive Landscape
68
Table: Key Players - Telecoms Sector
68
Table: Selected Operators' Financial Performance (USDmn)
68
Company Profile
69
TDC
69
Telenor Denmark
74
Telia Denmark
80
Hi3G Denmark
85
Regional Overview
88
INSIDE Secure: New Strategy, New Deals
88
Revenue Growth Momentum Recovers In Q413
89
Table: INSIDE Secure - Key Performance Indicators (USD '000)
90
Strengthening Mobile Security Proposition
91
Acquisition Bolsters Security Capabilities
91
New Licensing Deal With Intel Offsets Exposure To BlackBerry
92
Demographic Forecast
94
Table: Denmark's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
95
Table: Denmark's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
96
Table: Denmark's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
97
Table: Denmark's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
97
Glossary
98
Table: Glossary Of Terms
98
Methodology
100
Industry Forecast Methodology
100
Sources
101
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
102
Table: Risk/Reward Ratings Indicators
103
Table: Weighting Of Indicators
104

The Germany Telecommunications Report features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s independent industry forecasts on the future strength of Germany's ICT market, covering the fixed-line, mobile and internet segments and analyses latest regulatory developments and corporate news, including investment activity, mergers and acquisitions, joint ventures and partnerships. Leading operators and manufacturers are fully profiled, highlighting their quarterly financial performance, capital expenditure plans and latest contracts.

BMI's Germany Telecommunications Report provides industry professionals and researchers, operators, equipment suppliers and vendors, corporate and financial services analysts and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the telecoms industry in Germany.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent telecoms industry forecasts for Germany to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the German telecoms market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in Germany's telecoms sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Germany.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity).

Coverage

Executive Summary

Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts and views, covering the ICT, fixed-line, mobile (including 3G), internet and broadband markets.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the wireline and wireless sectors and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

Business Environment Ratings

BMI's Telecommunications Business Environment Ratings provides a country-comparative Risk-Reward Ratings index aimed at investors (vendors, operators and suppliers) in the regional telecoms market.

The ratings methodology makes sophisticated use of more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points.

BMI Industry Forecast Scenario

Historic data series and forecasts to end-2017 for all key industry indicators (see list below) supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast.

  • Fixed-Line Telephony - Telephone lines ('000); telephone lines/100 inhabitants.
  • Cellular Telephony - Mobile phone subscribers ('000); mobile phone subscribers/100 inhabitants; mobile phone subscribers/100 fixed line subscribers.
  • Internet Markets - Internet users ('000); internet users/100 inhabitants; broadband internet subscribers ('000); broadband internet subscribers/100 inhabitants.

Market Data Analysis

Detailed market analysis of the mobile, mobile content, fixed line and internet segments, broken down into:

  • Market Data - Analysis of market size, operator shares, dominant trends, competitive landscape and key quarterly data.
  • Technology/Service Rollout - Analysis of rollout/adoption of new technology, such as 3G, WiMAX, IPTV, pay-TV, LTE and value-added handset services (gaming, music, video, apps etc.).
  • Mobile Content - The latest trends in content and services available and being introduced by mobile operators. Including a timeline of all the latest major mobile content developments.
  • Company Database - A comprehensive breakdown of KPIs of the leading mobile operators, including subscriber figures by type (pre-paid and post-paid); 3G subscriber figures; net additions; market share; ARPU; churn rates; minutes of use; voice and non-voice revenue; financial figures (including operating revenues, net profits and EBITDA).

Regulatory Environment

Details of the regulatory bodies and their responsibilities, as well as a special focus on the rules surrounding competition and interconnection. The latest updates in the market's development and regulatory rulings.

Company Profiles

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses.

The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

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