Business Monitor International


Germany Telecommunications Report

Published 27 February 2014

  • 141 pages
 
$1,295.00
Germany Telecommunications Report

BMI View : Consolidation is driving the German telecommunications market as operators strive to reinvent themselves as full co nverged service providers. O2 hopes to acquire E-Plus , Vodafone has gained control of Kabel Deutschland Group , and cable and broadband operators are exchanging assets that will bolster their presence in key cities. Low value voice and messaging services are being superseded by data-centric ser vices as more consumers demand ' everything everywhere' access. Consequently, business strategies are being reforged and investment budgets geared as much towards the development of differentiated services as next-generation infrastructure. The shift of one MVNO from low-value prepaid to high-value postpaid plans conveys the story set to play out over the next five years. BMI believes t he German competitive landscape is changing quickly and that many of today's players will not stay the course .

Key Data

  • Mobile subscription growth forecast to rise from 115.2mn in 2013 to 118.6mn by the end of 2018, despite continued net losses at Vodafone. Market is buoyed by robust MVNO expansion and customer migration to 4G (LTE).

  • Improved mobile subscriber mix and the loss of non revenue-generating inactive subscriptions at Vodafone (and likely also at O2 once it acquires E-Plus) should lead to a small improvement in the rate of ARPU erosion. However, the trend remains downward overall. BMI forecasts industry average ARPUs to fall from EUR13.9 in 2013 to EUR13.3 in 2018.

Key Developments

At the time of writing, the European Commission (EC) was still reviewing the EUR8.6bn (USD11.6bn) acquisition of E-Plus by Telefonica Deutschland/O2. The pro-merger German government has offered to conduct the review internally, but the more sceptical EC has insisted on assessing the proposal itself. The EC has already informed O2 that certain remedial actions would be required in order for the deal to go through: at the time of writing, the...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Wireline SWOT
11
Political
13
Economic
14
Business Environment
15
Industry Forecast
16
Mobile
16
Table: Telecoms Sector - Mobile - Historical Data & Forecasts (Germany 2011-2018)
16
ARPUs
18
Fixed-Line
21
Table: Telecoms Sector - Wireline - Historical Data & Forecasts (Germany 2011-2018)
21
Internet
23
Table: Telecoms Sector - Internet - Historical Data & Forecasts
23
Industry Business Environment Overview
26
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
26
Changes At The Top
26
Table: Western Europe Telecoms - Risk/Rewards Ratings, Q314
29
Market Overview
31
Mobile
31
Regional Perspective
31
Table: Mobile Market Regional Comparisons, 2013
32
Market Growth
33
Market Share And Net Additions
34
Table: Net Additions By Operator ('000)
36
Subscription Mix
37
Usage
38
MVNOs
39
Networks
40
Table: Percentage Of Revenues From Non-Voice Services, %
46
Table: Mobile Market
51
Table: T-Mobile
51
Table: Vodafone
53
Table: E-Plus
55
Table: O2
58
Western Europe Mobile Content
61
Monetising Footfall
62
Interoperable M-Commerce A Stronger Proposition
63
Positioning Key To M2M Success
64
Regaining Control Of The Bill
66
Fixed Line
68
Recent Developments
68
Fixed-Line Telephony
69
Operator Performance
70
Table: Fixed-Line Subscriptions By Operator ('000)
71
Table: Voice Telephony Accesses And Other Licensed Operators' Shares, 2011-2013
72
Fixed Broadband
73
Pay-TV/Convergence
76
Table: TV Households By Platform (mn)
77
Table: HD TV Households (mn)
78
Converged Service Operator Data
80
Table: Deutsche Telekom
80
Table: Kabel Deutschland
81
Table: UPC Unitymedia
82
Table: Telefonica Deutschland
83
Table: Sky Deutschland
84
Table: Tele2 Deutschland
86
Industry Trends And Developments
87
Table: Selected Trends And Developments
87
Regulatory Development
89
Regulatory Overview
89
Table: Germany Regulatory Bodies And Their Responsibilities
89
Regulatory Developments
96
Competitive Landscape
98
Table: Key Players - Germany Telecoms Sector
98
Table: Selected Operators' Financial Indicators, 2008-2013 (US$mn)
99
Company Profile
100
Deutsche Telekom
100
T-Mobile
106
Vodafone Germany
110
E-Plus
116
Telef-nica Deutschland
121
Regional Overview
126
INSIDE Secure: New Strategy, New Deals
126
Revenue Growth Momentum Recovers In Q413
127
Table: INSIDE Secure - Key Performance Indicators (USD '000)
128
Strengthening Mobile Security Proposition
129
Acquisition Bolsters Security Capabilities
129
New Licensing Deal With Intel Offsets Exposure To BlackBerry
130
Demographic Forecast
132
Table: Germany's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
133
Table: Germany's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
134
Table: Germany's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
135
Table: Germany's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
135
Glossary
136
Table: Glossary Of Terms
136
Methodology
138
Industry Forecast Methodology
138
Sources
139
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
140
Table: Risk/Reward Ratings Indicators
141
Table: Weighting Of Indicators
142

The Germany Telecommunications Report features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s independent industry forecasts on the future strength of Germany's ICT market, covering the fixed-line, mobile and internet segments and analyses latest regulatory developments and corporate news, including investment activity, mergers and acquisitions, joint ventures and partnerships. Leading operators and manufacturers are fully profiled, highlighting their quarterly financial performance, capital expenditure plans and latest contracts.

BMI's Germany Telecommunications Report provides industry professionals and researchers, operators, equipment suppliers and vendors, corporate and financial services analysts and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the telecoms industry in Germany.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent telecoms industry forecasts for Germany to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the German telecoms market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in Germany's telecoms sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Germany.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity).

Coverage

Executive Summary

Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts and views, covering the ICT, fixed-line, mobile (including 3G), internet and broadband markets.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the wireline and wireless sectors and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

Business Environment Ratings

BMI's Telecommunications Business Environment Ratings provides a country-comparative Risk-Reward Ratings index aimed at investors (vendors, operators and suppliers) in the regional telecoms market.

The ratings methodology makes sophisticated use of more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points.

BMI Industry Forecast Scenario

Historic data series and forecasts to end-2017 for all key industry indicators (see list below) supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast.

  • Fixed-Line Telephony - Telephone lines ('000); telephone lines/100 inhabitants.
  • Cellular Telephony - Mobile phone subscribers ('000); mobile phone subscribers/100 inhabitants; mobile phone subscribers/100 fixed line subscribers.
  • Internet Markets - Internet users ('000); internet users/100 inhabitants; broadband internet subscribers ('000); broadband internet subscribers/100 inhabitants.

Market Data Analysis

Detailed market analysis of the mobile, mobile content, fixed line and internet segments, broken down into:

  • Market Data - Analysis of market size, operator shares, dominant trends, competitive landscape and key quarterly data.
  • Technology/Service Rollout - Analysis of rollout/adoption of new technology, such as 3G, WiMAX, IPTV, pay-TV, LTE and value-added handset services (gaming, music, video, apps etc.).
  • Mobile Content - The latest trends in content and services available and being introduced by mobile operators. Including a timeline of all the latest major mobile content developments.
  • Company Database - A comprehensive breakdown of KPIs of the leading mobile operators, including subscriber figures by type (pre-paid and post-paid); 3G subscriber figures; net additions; market share; ARPU; churn rates; minutes of use; voice and non-voice revenue; financial figures (including operating revenues, net profits and EBITDA).

Regulatory Environment

Details of the regulatory bodies and their responsibilities, as well as a special focus on the rules surrounding competition and interconnection. The latest updates in the market's development and regulatory rulings.

Company Profiles

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses.

The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

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