Business Monitor International


Germany Telecommunications Report

Published 27 February 2014

  • 141 pages
  • Instant access to your report online and PDF format through your account library
  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
 
$1,295.00
Germany Telecommunications Report

BMI View : Consolidation is driving the German telecommunications market as operators strive to reinvent themselves as full co nverged service providers. O2 hopes to acquire E-Plus , Vodafone has gained control of Kabel Deutschland Group , and cable and broadband operators are exchanging assets that will bolster their presence in key cities. Low value voice and messaging services are being superseded by data-centric ser vices as more consumers demand ' everything everywhere' access. Consequently, business strategies are being reforged and investment budgets geared as much towards the development of differentiated services as next-generation infrastructure. The shift of one MVNO from low-value prepaid to high-value postpaid plans conveys the story set to play out over the next five years. BMI believes t he German competitive landscape is changing quickly and that many of today's players will not stay the course .

Key Data

  • Mobile subscription growth forecast to rise from 115.1mn in 2013 to 118.5mn by the end of 2018, despite continued net losses at Vodafone. Market is buoyed by robust MVNO expansion and customer migration to 4G (LTE).

  • Improved mobile subscriber mix and the loss of non revenue-generating inactive subscriptions at Vodafone (and likely also at O2 once it acquires E-Plus) should lead to a small improvement in the rate of ARPU erosion. However, the trend remains downward overall. BMI forecasts industry average ARPUs to fall from EUR13.9 in 2013 to EUR13.3 in 2018.

Key Developments

At the time of writing, the European Commission (EC) was still reviewing the EUR8.6bn (US$11.6bn) acquisition of E-Plus by Telefonica Deutschland/O2. The pro-merger German government has offered to conduct the review internally, but the more sceptical EC has insisted on assessing the proposal itself. The EC has already informed O2 that certain remedial actions would be required in order for the deal to go through: at the time of writing, the...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
8
SWOT
10
Political
12
Economic
13
Business Environment
14
Industry Forecast
15
Mobile
15
Table: Denmark Telecoms Sector - Mobile - Historical Data & Forecasts
15
ARPU
16
Table: Denmark Telecoms Sector - Monthly Blended Mobile ARPU (DKK) - Historical Data & Forecasts
16
Fixed-Line
18
Table: Denmark Telecoms Sector - Fixed Line - Historical Data & Forecasts
18
Broadband
20
Table: Denmark Telecoms Sector - Internet - Historical Data & Forecasts
20
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
23
Few Changes At The Top
23
Economic Headwinds Persist
24
Minor Markets Compared
25
Table: Western Europe Risk/Reward Ratings, Q214
27
Market Overview
28
Mobile
28
Regional Perspective
28
Table: Denmark Mobile Market Regional Comparison, 2013
29
Key Developments
29
Mobile Growth
30
Market Shares
30
Table: Denmark Mobile Market, Q313
31
Usage
33
MVNOs
34
Networks
35
Mobile Content
40
Value-Added Services Timeline
47
Table: Selected VAS Services
47
Mobile Contract Wins
48
Table: Mobile Contract Wins
48
Mobile Operator Data
49
Table: Denmark Mobile Market Overview
49
Table: TDC
49
Table: Telenor Denmark
50
Table: TeliaSonera
52
Table: 3 Denmark
53
Western Europe Mobile Content
54
Monetising Footfall
55
Interoperable M-Commerce A Stronger Proposition
56
Positioning Key To M2M Success
57
Regaining Control Of The Bill
59
Fixed-Line
61
Broadband
64
Table: Fixed Broadband Accesses By Technology ('000), 2009-2012
66
Industry Trends And Developments
72
Table: Industry Trends and Developments
73
Regulatory Development
75
Regulatory Overview
75
Table: Denmark: Regulatory Bodies And Their Responsibilities
76
Table: Regulatory Developments
79
Competitive Landscape
80
Table: Key Players - Telecoms Sector
80
Table: Selected Operators Financial Performance (US$mn)
80
Company Profile
81
TDC
81
Telenor Denmark
86
Telia Denmark
91
Hi3G Denmark
96
Regional Overview
100
Telit Communications: New Strategy Beginning To Pay Off
100
Table: Telit Communications' Financial Performance, H109-H113 (US$mn, unless otherwise stated)
101
Beware Commoditisation
102
Differentiation And Value Added Key To Success
103
The Road Ahead
104
Demographic Forecast
105
Table: Denmark's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
106
Table: Denmark's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
107
Table: Denmark's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
108
Table: Denmark's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
108
Glossary
109
Table: Glossary Of Terms
109
Methodology
111
Industry Forecast Methodology
111
Sources
112
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
113
Table: Risk/Reward Ratings Indicators
114
Table: Weighting Of Indicators
115

The Germany Telecommunications Report features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s independent industry forecasts on the future strength of Germany's ICT market, covering the fixed-line, mobile and internet segments and analyses latest regulatory developments and corporate news, including investment activity, mergers and acquisitions, joint ventures and partnerships. Leading operators and manufacturers are fully profiled, highlighting their quarterly financial performance, capital expenditure plans and latest contracts.

BMI's Germany Telecommunications Report provides industry professionals and researchers, operators, equipment suppliers and vendors, corporate and financial services analysts and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the telecoms industry in Germany.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent telecoms industry forecasts for Germany to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the German telecoms market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in Germany's telecoms sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Germany.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity).

Coverage

Executive Summary

Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts and views, covering the ICT, fixed-line, mobile (including 3G), internet and broadband markets.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the wireline and wireless sectors and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

Business Environment Ratings

BMI's Telecommunications Business Environment Ratings provides a country-comparative Risk-Reward Ratings index aimed at investors (vendors, operators and suppliers) in the regional telecoms market.

The ratings methodology makes sophisticated use of more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points.

BMI Industry Forecast Scenario

Historic data series and forecasts to end-2017 for all key industry indicators (see list below) supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast.

  • Fixed-Line Telephony - Telephone lines ('000); telephone lines/100 inhabitants.
  • Cellular Telephony - Mobile phone subscribers ('000); mobile phone subscribers/100 inhabitants; mobile phone subscribers/100 fixed line subscribers.
  • Internet Markets - Internet users ('000); internet users/100 inhabitants; broadband internet subscribers ('000); broadband internet subscribers/100 inhabitants.

Market Data Analysis

Detailed market analysis of the mobile, mobile content, fixed line and internet segments, broken down into:

  • Market Data - Analysis of market size, operator shares, dominant trends, competitive landscape and key quarterly data.
  • Technology/Service Rollout - Analysis of rollout/adoption of new technology, such as 3G, WiMAX, IPTV, pay-TV, LTE and value-added handset services (gaming, music, video, apps etc.).
  • Mobile Content - The latest trends in content and services available and being introduced by mobile operators. Including a timeline of all the latest major mobile content developments.
  • Company Database - A comprehensive breakdown of KPIs of the leading mobile operators, including subscriber figures by type (pre-paid and post-paid); 3G subscriber figures; net additions; market share; ARPU; churn rates; minutes of use; voice and non-voice revenue; financial figures (including operating revenues, net profits and EBITDA).

Regulatory Environment

Details of the regulatory bodies and their responsibilities, as well as a special focus on the rules surrounding competition and interconnection. The latest updates in the market's development and regulatory rulings.

Company Profiles

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses.

The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc