Business Monitor International


Germany Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report

Published 19 May 2014

  • 130 pages
 
$1,295.00
Germany Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report

BMI View: Germany's medicines pricing regime will continue to restrict drugmaker s' revenue streams. The AMNOG has proved to be tough, with the majority of medicine reimbursement prices lying under the average of or below the lowest of the European reference country basket. Additionally, legislators have voted to continue the 2010 implemented price freeze on reimbursed drugs until the end of 2017. However, the long term and clear nature of the measures implemented by the government is a much more structured medicine pricing regime than the numerous emergency measures implemented by south European governments - which are highly disruptive to drugmaker s' strate gies and revenue streams.

Headline Expenditure Projections

  • Pharmaceuticals: EUR40.02bn (USD52.82bn) in 2013 to EU39.95bn (USD52.33bn) in 2014; -0.2% in local currency terms and -0.9% in US dollar terms.

  • Healthcare: EUR293.95bn (USD388.02bn) in 2013 to EUR300.54bn (USD393.71bn) in 2014; +2.2% in local currency terms and 1.5% in US dollar terms .

Risk/Reward Rating: In BMI's Q314 Pharmaceutical Risk/Reward Ratings, Germany is ranked as the most attractive pharmaceutical market in the Western European region, which covers 15 key markets.

Key Trends And Developments

  • The latest PhRMA submission to the 2014 Special 301 report by the US Trade Representative (USTR) holds mixed results for countries from Western Europe. The European Union as a whole has been placed on the Priority Watch list, while Finland, Germany, Italy and Spain have each been separately included on the Watch List. PhRMA's submission to the USTR outlines the industry's concerns about countries' IP regime deficiencies, including adherence to the Agreement on Trade-Related Aspects of Intellectual Property Rights (TRIPS), measures in place to deal with counterfeit medicines, the speed at which IP disputes are resolved and general market access barriers.

  • In May 2014, Germany's cost-effectiveness evaluator, the Institute for...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Political
11
Economic
12
Business Environment
13
Industry Forecast
14
Pharmaceutical Market Forecast
14
Table: Pharmaceutical Sales, Historical Data And Forecasts (Germany 2010-2018)
15
Healthcare Market Forecast
16
Table: Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (Germany 2010-2018)
17
Table: Government Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (Germany 2010-2018)
17
Table: Private Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (Germany 2010-2018)
18
Prescription Drug Market Forecast
19
Table: Retail Pharmaceutical Expenditure, 2003-2010 (EURbn)
20
Table: Retail Pharmaceutical Expenditure, 2003-2010 (Packages, ms)
20
Table: Retail Pharmaceutical Expenditure, 2003-2010 (Average Price per Pack, EUR)
20
Table: Prescription Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (Germany 2010-2018)
21
Patented Drug Market Forecast
22
Table: Patented Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (Germany 2010-2018)
23
Generic Drug Market Forecast
24
Table: Generic Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (Germany 2010-2018)
25
OTC Medicine Market Forecast
26
Table: Over-The-Counter (OTC) Medicine Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (Germany 2010-2018)
27
Pharmaceutical Trade Forecast
28
Table: Pharmaceutical Trade Data And Forecasts USDmn (Germany 2012-2018)
29
Table: Pharmaceutical Trade Data And Forecasts, EURmn (Germany 2012-2018)
29
Other Healthcare Data
30
Key Risks To BMI's Forecast Scenario
31
Macroeconomic Forecasts
32
Table: Germany - Economic Activity
37
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
38
Western Europe Risk/Reward Ratings
38
Germany Risk/Reward Ratings
43
Rewards
43
Risks
43
Market Overview
44
Industry Trends And Developments
45
Epidemiology
45
Healthcare Sector
46
Health Insurance
46
Healthcare Sector Reforms
47
Research & Development
49
Biotechnology Sector
53
Table: Biotechnology Sector, 2008-09
53
Clinical Trials
55
Regulatory Development
56
Table: BfArM Drug Registration Activity, 2006-10
56
Intellectual Property Regime
58
Pricing Regime
60
Table: Price Build-Up In The German Pharmaceutical Market
61
Table: Selected AMNOG Drug Assessments
63
Reimbursement Regime
66
Table: Top 10 GKV Selling Drug Brands, 2009-2010 (EURmn)
67
Parallel Imports
70
Competitive Landscape
71
Table: Pharmaceutical Production, 1990-2010
71
Table: Leading German Pharmaceutical Companies
73
Wholesale Sector
75
Table: Members of the Association of Pharmaceutical Wholesalers (PHAGRO), 2012
75
Retail Sector
78
Company Profile
84
Bayer HealthCare
84
Boehringer Ingelheim
91
STADA Arzneimittel
98
Gr-nenthal
104
Merck KGaA
107
GlaxoSmithKline (GSK)
113
Pfizer
116
Sanofi
119
Merck & Co
122
Demographic Forecast
124
Table: Germany's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
125
Table: Germany's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
126
Table: Germany's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
127
Table: Germany's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
127
Glossary
128
Methodology
130
Pharmaceutical Expenditure Forecast Model
130
Healthcare Expenditure Forecast Model
130
Notes On Methodology
131
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
132
Ratings Overview
133
Table: Pharmaceutical Risk/Reward Ratings Indicators
133
Indicator Weightings
134

The Germany Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s forecasts for drugs and healthcare expenditure and imports and exports, focusing on the growth outlook for the prescription, OTC, patented drugs and generics market segments.

BMI's Germany Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report provides industry professionals, strategists, company executives, investors, analysts and sales/marketing heads with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the German pharmaceutical and healthcare industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent pharmaceutical and healthcare industry forecasts for Germany to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the German pharmaceutical and healthcare market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the German pharmaceutical and healthcare sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Germany.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and Competitive Landscape Tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View & Industry SWOT

An at-a-glance perspective on latest regulatory developments, key forecast indicators and major corporate developments, covering the prescription, OTC and generics markets. The SWOT outlines strategic factors which affect BMI's forecast analysis, and taken together with BMI's political, economic and business environment SWOTS, it gives a complete overview of market climate.

Market Summary

Snapshot of key market characteristics, including total size of pharmaceuticals and healthcare segments, growth drivers, leading therapeutic areas and the competitive landscape.

Regulatory Regime

Details of the industry regulatory framework and key legislation covering the licensing of new products/services, pricing and reimbursements, intellectual property, taxation and advertising, as well as an analysis of the overall regulatory burden.

Industry Developments

Focus on government healthcare reforms, epidemiological trends, company M&As, product launches, market entries, FDI activity, R&D, biotechnology, clinical trials and supply chain issues.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry indicators (see list below) supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:

Healthcare: Total healthcare expenditure (US$bn), healthcare expenditure (% of GDP), healthcare expenditure per capita (US$), hospital beds (per `000 population), doctors (per `000 population), birth and mortality rate (per `000 population)

Pharmaceutical market: Drug expenditure (US$bn), drug expenditure (% of GDP), drug expenditure per capita (US$)

Patented drug market: Prescription drug sales (US$bn), prescription sales (% of total sales), sales broken down by 14 therapeutic areas (cardiovascular, anti-infectives etc.)

Generic drug market: Generic product sales (US$bn), generic sales (% of total sales)

OTC drug market: OTC sales (US$bn), OTC sales (% of total sales), sales broken down by product types (analgesics, skin treatments, vitamins and minerals etc.)

Medical Devices: Medical device sales (US$bn), medical device sales (% of total healthcare market)

Macroeconomic Forecasts: Nominal and real GDP, % real GDP growth, % private consumption growth, % industrial output growth, % consumer price index, % GDP price deflator, exports, imports, trade balance, current account balance, foreign direct investment, exchange rate against US$, government expenditure, external debt.

Competitive Landscape

The competitive landscape section provides comparative company analyses and rankings by US$ sales and % share of total sales - for the total pharmaceutical sector, as well as the OTC, generics, and distribution sub-sectors.

Company Profiles

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

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