Business Monitor International


Germany Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report

Published 24 February 2014

  • 130 pages
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  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
 
$1,295.00
Germany Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report

BMI View: The downward pressure on generic medicine prices , as a result of tenders raising the level of competition and the ultimate commoditisation of off-patent medicines, draws attention to the inherent challenges for generic drugmakers looking to profit from the government 's focus on cost containment in the healthcare sector. The German pharmaceutical market used to be dominated by branded medicines and reasonable profit could be realised. However, over the past few years, the government has sought to contain healthcare costs in light of the emergence of more chronic diseases and ageing population. The health insurance companies, the krankenkassen, award bulk tenders to drugmakers that charge the least for their products, resulting in a decline in the prices of off-patented medicines.

Headline Expenditure Projections

  • Pharmaceuticals: EUR40.02bn (US$52.82bn) in 2013 to EUR40.10bn (US$50.92bn) in 2014; 0.2% in local currency terms and -3.6% in US dollar terms.

  • Healthcare: EUR296.31bn (US$391.13bn) in 2013 to EUR304.73bn (US$387.01n) in 2014; +2.8% in local currency terms and -1.1% in US dollar terms .

Risk/Reward Rating: In BMI's Q214 Pharmaceutical Risk/Reward Ratings, Germany is ranked the most attractive pharmaceutical market in the Western European region, which covers 15 key markets.

Key Trends And Developments

Aligning with BMI's view that health technology assessment and reimbursement decision-making bodies will take an increasingly hard line in 2014 when determining whether a new drug provides added value to patients in comparison with existing therapies (Germany's Institute for Quality and Efficiency in Healthcare (IQWiG) has started the new year with the publication of the results of four new assessments of medicines under the Pharmaceutical Market Restructuring Act (AMNOG)) stating that only one drug out of the four provides a minor additional benefit.

In January 2014, it was reported that Germany is seeking to employ foreign doctors to...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Political
11
Economic
12
Business Environment
13
Industry Forecast
14
Pharmaceutical Market Forecast
14
Table: Germany Pharmaceutical Sales, Historical Data and Forecasts
15
Healthcare Market Forecast
16
Table: Germany Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data and Forecasts
17
Table: Germany Government Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data and Forecasts
17
Table: Germany Private Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data and Forecasts
18
Prescription Drug Market Forecast
19
Table: Retail Pharmaceutical Expenditure, 2003-2010 (EURbn)
20
Table: Retail Pharmaceutical Expenditure, 2003-2010 (Packages, ms)
20
Table: Retail Pharmaceutical Expenditure, 2003-10 (Average Price per Pack, EUR)
20
Table: Germany Prescription Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data and Forecasts
21
Patented Drug Market Forecast
22
Table: Germany Patented Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data and Forecasts
23
Generic Drug Market Forecast
24
Table: Germany Generics Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data and Forecasts
25
OTC Medicine Market Forecast
26
Table: Germany Over-The-Counter (OTC) Medicine Market Indicators, Historical Data and Forecasts
27
Pharmaceutical Trade Forecast
28
Table: Germany Pharmaceutical Trade Data And Forecasts (US$mn)
29
Table: Germany Pharmaceutical Trade Data And Forecasts (EURmn)
29
Other Healthcare Data
30
Key Risks To BMI's Forecast Scenario
31
Macroeconomic Forecasts
32
Table: Germany - Economic Activity
38
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
39
Western Europe Risk/Reward Ratings
39
Germany Risk/Reward Ratings
44
Rewards
44
Risks
44
Market Overview
46
Industry Trends And Developments
47
Epidemiology
47
Healthcare Sector
48
Health Insurance
48
Healthcare Sector Reforms
49
Research & Development
51
Biotechnology Sector
54
Table: Biotechnology Sector, 2008-09
55
Clinical Trials
57
Regulatory Development
58
Table: BfArM Drug Registration Activity, 2006-10
58
Intellectual Property Regime
60
2010 Healthcare Reform
61
Pricing Regime
62
Table: Price Build-Up In The German Pharmaceutical Market
63
Table: Selected AMNOG Drug Assessments
65
Reimbursement Regime
68
Table: Top 10 GKV Selling Drug Brands, 2009-2010 (EURmn)
69
Parallel Imports
72
Competitive Landscape
73
Table: Pharmaceutical Production, 1990-2010
73
Table: Leading German Pharmaceutical Companies
75
Wholesale Sector
77
Table: Members of the Association of Pharmaceutical Wholesalers (PHAGRO), 2012
77
Retail Sector
80
Company Profile
86
Bayer HealthCare
86
Boehringer Ingelheim
93
STADA Arzneimittel
99
Gr-nenthal
104
Merck KGaA
106
GlaxoSmithKline (GSK)
111
Pfizer
114
Sanofi
117
Merck & Co
120
Demographic Forecast
122
Demographic Outlook
122
Table: Germany's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
123
Table: Germany's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
124
Table: Germany's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
125
Table: Germany's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
125
Glossary
126
Methodology
128
Pharmaceutical Expenditure Forecast Model
128
Healthcare Expenditure Forecast Model
128
Notes On Methodology
129
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
130
Ratings Overview
131
Table: Pharmaceutical Risk/Reward Ratings Indicators
131
Indicator Weightings
132

The Germany Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s forecasts for drugs and healthcare expenditure and imports and exports, focusing on the growth outlook for the prescription, OTC, patented drugs and generics market segments.

BMI's Germany Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report provides industry professionals, strategists, company executives, investors, analysts and sales/marketing heads with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the German pharmaceutical and healthcare industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent pharmaceutical and healthcare industry forecasts for Germany to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the German pharmaceutical and healthcare market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the German pharmaceutical and healthcare sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Germany.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and Competitive Landscape Tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View & Industry SWOT

An at-a-glance perspective on latest regulatory developments, key forecast indicators and major corporate developments, covering the prescription, OTC and generics markets. The SWOT outlines strategic factors which affect BMI's forecast analysis, and taken together with BMI's political, economic and business environment SWOTS, it gives a complete overview of market climate.

Market Summary

Snapshot of key market characteristics, including total size of pharmaceuticals and healthcare segments, growth drivers, leading therapeutic areas and the competitive landscape.

Regulatory Regime

Details of the industry regulatory framework and key legislation covering the licensing of new products/services, pricing and reimbursements, intellectual property, taxation and advertising, as well as an analysis of the overall regulatory burden.

Industry Developments

Focus on government healthcare reforms, epidemiological trends, company M&As, product launches, market entries, FDI activity, R&D, biotechnology, clinical trials and supply chain issues.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry indicators (see list below) supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:

Healthcare: Total healthcare expenditure (US$bn), healthcare expenditure (% of GDP), healthcare expenditure per capita (US$), hospital beds (per `000 population), doctors (per `000 population), birth and mortality rate (per `000 population)

Pharmaceutical market: Drug expenditure (US$bn), drug expenditure (% of GDP), drug expenditure per capita (US$)

Patented drug market: Prescription drug sales (US$bn), prescription sales (% of total sales), sales broken down by 14 therapeutic areas (cardiovascular, anti-infectives etc.)

Generic drug market: Generic product sales (US$bn), generic sales (% of total sales)

OTC drug market: OTC sales (US$bn), OTC sales (% of total sales), sales broken down by product types (analgesics, skin treatments, vitamins and minerals etc.)

Medical Devices: Medical device sales (US$bn), medical device sales (% of total healthcare market)

Macroeconomic Forecasts: Nominal and real GDP, % real GDP growth, % private consumption growth, % industrial output growth, % consumer price index, % GDP price deflator, exports, imports, trade balance, current account balance, foreign direct investment, exchange rate against US$, government expenditure, external debt.

Competitive Landscape

The competitive landscape section provides comparative company analyses and rankings by US$ sales and % share of total sales - for the total pharmaceutical sector, as well as the OTC, generics, and distribution sub-sectors.

Company Profiles

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc