Business Monitor International

Germany Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report

Published 19 May 2014

  • 130 pages
Germany Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report

BMI View: Germany's medicines pricing regime will continue to restrict drugmaker s' revenue streams. The AMNOG has proved to be tough, with the majority of medicine reimbursement prices lying under the average of or below the lowest of the European reference country basket. Additionally, legislators have voted to continue the 2010 implemented price freeze on reimbursed drugs until the end of 2017. However, the long term and clear nature of the measures implemented by the government is a much more structured medicine pricing regime than the numerous emergency measures implemented by south European governments - which are highly disruptive to drugmaker s' strate gies and revenue streams.

Headline Expenditure Projections

  • Pharmaceuticals: EUR40.02bn (USD52.82bn) in 2013 to EU39.95bn (USD52.33bn) in 2014; -0.2% in local currency terms and -0.9% in US dollar terms.

  • Healthcare: EUR293.95bn (USD388.02bn) in 2013 to EUR300.54bn (USD393.71bn) in 2014; +2.2% in local currency terms and 1.5% in US dollar terms .

Risk/Reward Rating: In BMI's Q314 Pharmaceutical Risk/Reward Ratings, Germany is ranked as the most attractive pharmaceutical market in the Western European region, which covers 15 key markets.

Key Trends And Developments

  • The latest PhRMA submission to the 2014 Special 301 report by the US Trade Representative (USTR) holds mixed results for countries from Western Europe. The European Union as a whole has been placed on the Priority Watch list, while Finland, Germany, Italy and Spain have each been separately included on the Watch List. PhRMA's submission to the USTR outlines the industry's concerns about countries' IP regime deficiencies, including adherence to the Agreement on Trade-Related Aspects of Intellectual Property Rights (TRIPS), measures in place to deal with counterfeit medicines, the speed at which IP disputes are resolved and general market access barriers.

  • In May 2014, Germany's cost-effectiveness evaluator, the Institute for...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
Business Environment
Industry Forecast
Pharmaceutical Market Forecast
Table: Pharmaceutical Sales, Historical Data And Forecasts (Denmark 2010-2018)
Healthcare Market Forecast
Table: Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (Denmark 2010-2018)
Table: Government Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (Denmark 2010-2018)
Table: Private Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (Denmark 2010-2018)
Macroeconomic Forecasts
Economic Analysis
Table: Economic Activity (Denmark 2009-2018)
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
Western Europe Risk/Reward Ratings
Denmark Risk/Reward Ratings
Market Overview
Industry Trends And Developments
Regulatory Development
Pricing Regime
Reimbursement Regime
Table: Expenditure On Reimbursed Medicines (DKRmn)
Competitive Landscape
Table: LIF Member Companies
Demographic Forecast
Table: Denmark's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
Table: Denmark's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
Table: Denmark's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
Table: Denmark's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
Pharmaceutical Expenditure Forecast Model
Healthcare Expenditure Forecast Model
Notes On Methodology
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
Ratings Overview
Table: Pharmaceutical Risk/Reward Ratings Indicators
Indicator Weightings

The Germany Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s forecasts for drugs and healthcare expenditure and imports and exports, focusing on the growth outlook for the prescription, OTC, patented drugs and generics market segments.

BMI's Germany Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report provides industry professionals, strategists, company executives, investors, analysts and sales/marketing heads with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the German pharmaceutical and healthcare industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent pharmaceutical and healthcare industry forecasts for Germany to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the German pharmaceutical and healthcare market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the German pharmaceutical and healthcare sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Germany.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and Competitive Landscape Tables.


BMI Industry View & Industry SWOT

An at-a-glance perspective on latest regulatory developments, key forecast indicators and major corporate developments, covering the prescription, OTC and generics markets. The SWOT outlines strategic factors which affect BMI's forecast analysis, and taken together with BMI's political, economic and business environment SWOTS, it gives a complete overview of market climate.

Market Summary

Snapshot of key market characteristics, including total size of pharmaceuticals and healthcare segments, growth drivers, leading therapeutic areas and the competitive landscape.

Regulatory Regime

Details of the industry regulatory framework and key legislation covering the licensing of new products/services, pricing and reimbursements, intellectual property, taxation and advertising, as well as an analysis of the overall regulatory burden.

Industry Developments

Focus on government healthcare reforms, epidemiological trends, company M&As, product launches, market entries, FDI activity, R&D, biotechnology, clinical trials and supply chain issues.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry indicators (see list below) supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:

Healthcare: Total healthcare expenditure (US$bn), healthcare expenditure (% of GDP), healthcare expenditure per capita (US$), hospital beds (per `000 population), doctors (per `000 population), birth and mortality rate (per `000 population)

Pharmaceutical market: Drug expenditure (US$bn), drug expenditure (% of GDP), drug expenditure per capita (US$)

Patented drug market: Prescription drug sales (US$bn), prescription sales (% of total sales), sales broken down by 14 therapeutic areas (cardiovascular, anti-infectives etc.)

Generic drug market: Generic product sales (US$bn), generic sales (% of total sales)

OTC drug market: OTC sales (US$bn), OTC sales (% of total sales), sales broken down by product types (analgesics, skin treatments, vitamins and minerals etc.)

Medical Devices: Medical device sales (US$bn), medical device sales (% of total healthcare market)

Macroeconomic Forecasts: Nominal and real GDP, % real GDP growth, % private consumption growth, % industrial output growth, % consumer price index, % GDP price deflator, exports, imports, trade balance, current account balance, foreign direct investment, exchange rate against US$, government expenditure, external debt.

Competitive Landscape

The competitive landscape section provides comparative company analyses and rankings by US$ sales and % share of total sales - for the total pharmaceutical sector, as well as the OTC, generics, and distribution sub-sectors.

Company Profiles

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

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