Business Monitor International


Germany Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report

Published 24 November 2014

  • 130 pages
  • Instant access to your report online and PDF format through your account library
  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
 
$1,295.00
Germany Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report

BMI View: W hile Germany remains a very attractive market for drugmakers, recent regulatory developments intended to reduce healthcare spending will intensify already fierce competition amongst drugmakers , resulting in constrained revenues for less efficient innovators. While recent changes to the reimbursement regime are forecast to bring down retail prices, an ageing population will continue to demand rising volumes of innovative prescription medicines. Additionally, cost-containment initiatives will be moderated by a desire to sustain innovation within an industry key to Germany's positive balance of trade and international standing .

Headline Expenditure Projections

  • Pharmaceuticals: Down from EUR40.02bn (USD52.8bn) in 2013 to EU39.95bn (USD53.5bn) in 2014; -0.2% in local currency terms and 1.3% in US dollar terms.

  • Healthcare: Up from EUR303.67bn (USD400.85bn) in 2013 to EUR310.13bn (USD415.56bn) in 2014; +2.1% in local currency terms and 3.7% in US dollar terms .

Risk/Reward Rating: In BMI's Q115 Pharmaceutical Risk/Reward Ratings, Germany is ranked as the second most attractive out of the 15 markets covered in the Western European region, losing its place to the United Kingdom.

Key Trends and Developments

  • Several firms including GlaxoSmithKline ( GSK), have committed to an ambitious accelerated production schedule for an Ebola vaccine following an emergency meeting of government leaders and the pharmaceutical industry chaired by the World Health Organisation (WHO) in October 2014. With accelerated phase I trials already under way in the United States and United Kingdom, the meeting set targets for trials in Germany and Switzerland, to be launched before the end of 2014. Among the parties to this commitment were  Johnson & Johnson, Merck Vaccines, and New Link. 

  • In July 2014, German drugmaker Boehringer Ingelheim was accused of withholding important evidence from regulators regarding its anticoagulant Pradaxa (dabigatran). The...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Political
11
Economic
12
Business Environment
13
Industry Forecast
14
Pharmaceutical Market Forecast
14
Table: Pharmaceutical Sales, Historical Data And Forecasts (Denmark 2010-2018)
15
Healthcare Market Forecast
16
Table: Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (Denmark 2010-2018)
17
Table: Government Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (Denmark 2010-2018)
18
Table: Private Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (Denmark 2010-2018)
18
Macroeconomic Forecasts
19
Economic Analysis
19
Table: GDP By Expenditure (Denmark 2011-2018)
25
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
26
Western Europe Risk/Reward Ratings
26
Denmark Risk/Reward Ratings
32
Rewards
32
Risks
33
Market Overview
34
Industry Trends And Developments
36
Epidemiology
36
Regulatory Development
38
Pricing Regime
40
Reimbursement Regime
41
Table: Expenditure On Reimbursed Medicines (DKRmn)
43
Competitive Landscape
44
Table: LIF Member Companies
46
Demographic Forecast
48
Demographic Outlook
48
Table: Denmark's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
49
Table: Denmark's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
50
Table: Denmark's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
51
Table: Denmark's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
51
Glossary
52
Methodology
54
Pharmaceutical Expenditure Forecast Model
54
Healthcare Expenditure Forecast Model
54
Notes On Methodology
55
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
56
Ratings Overview
57
Table: Pharmaceutical Risk/Reward Ratings Indicators
57
Indicator Weightings
58

The Germany Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s forecasts for drugs and healthcare expenditure and imports and exports, focusing on the growth outlook for the prescription, OTC, patented drugs and generics market segments.

BMI's Germany Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report provides industry professionals, strategists, company executives, investors, analysts and sales/marketing heads with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the German pharmaceutical and healthcare industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent pharmaceutical and healthcare industry forecasts for Germany to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the German pharmaceutical and healthcare market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the German pharmaceutical and healthcare sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Germany.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and Competitive Landscape Tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View & Industry SWOT

An at-a-glance perspective on latest regulatory developments, key forecast indicators and major corporate developments, covering the prescription, OTC and generics markets. The SWOT outlines strategic factors which affect BMI's forecast analysis, and taken together with BMI's political, economic and business environment SWOTS, it gives a complete overview of market climate.

Market Summary

Snapshot of key market characteristics, including total size of pharmaceuticals and healthcare segments, growth drivers, leading therapeutic areas and the competitive landscape.

Regulatory Regime

Details of the industry regulatory framework and key legislation covering the licensing of new products/services, pricing and reimbursements, intellectual property, taxation and advertising, as well as an analysis of the overall regulatory burden.

Industry Developments

Focus on government healthcare reforms, epidemiological trends, company M&As, product launches, market entries, FDI activity, R&D, biotechnology, clinical trials and supply chain issues.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry indicators (see list below) supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:

Healthcare: Total healthcare expenditure (US$bn), healthcare expenditure (% of GDP), healthcare expenditure per capita (US$), hospital beds (per `000 population), doctors (per `000 population), birth and mortality rate (per `000 population)

Pharmaceutical market: Drug expenditure (US$bn), drug expenditure (% of GDP), drug expenditure per capita (US$)

Patented drug market: Prescription drug sales (US$bn), prescription sales (% of total sales), sales broken down by 14 therapeutic areas (cardiovascular, anti-infectives etc.)

Generic drug market: Generic product sales (US$bn), generic sales (% of total sales)

OTC drug market: OTC sales (US$bn), OTC sales (% of total sales), sales broken down by product types (analgesics, skin treatments, vitamins and minerals etc.)

Medical Devices: Medical device sales (US$bn), medical device sales (% of total healthcare market)

Macroeconomic Forecasts: Nominal and real GDP, % real GDP growth, % private consumption growth, % industrial output growth, % consumer price index, % GDP price deflator, exports, imports, trade balance, current account balance, foreign direct investment, exchange rate against US$, government expenditure, external debt.

Competitive Landscape

The competitive landscape section provides comparative company analyses and rankings by US$ sales and % share of total sales - for the total pharmaceutical sector, as well as the OTC, generics, and distribution sub-sectors.

Company Profiles

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc