Business Monitor International


Germany Oil & Gas Report

Published 03 October 2014

  • 134 pages
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  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
 
$1,295.00
Germany Oil & Gas Report

BMI View:   Germany will remain the biggest consumer and importer of oil in Western Europe for the next ten years. The country will also be the largest importer of natural gas. Largely due to this demand, the country has been unable to significantly deter Russia from its efforts to disrupt eas tern Ukraine, as its economy remains dependent on Russian supply.

Headline Forecasts (Germany 2012-2018)
  2012e 2013e 2014f 2015f 2016f 2017f 2018f
Crude, NGPL & other liquids prod, 000b/d 79.7 80.0 80.6 81.2 81.7 82.2 82.1
Dry natural gas production, bcm 10.8 9.8 9.0 8.2 7.6 7.2 6.8
Dry natural gas consumption, bcm 82.3 79.8 73.4 74.2 75.6 76.7 77.6
Refined products production & ethanol, 000b/d 2,046.0 1,988.9 1,999.9 1,994.2 1,988.6 1,983.1 1,977.8
Refined products consumption & ethanol, 000b/d 2,463.2 2,453.5 2,445.5 2,440.5 2,435.5 2,433.6 2,427.5
e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: EIA, BMI

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The main trends and developments in Germany's oil and gas sector are:

  • Germany - and the wider EU - has been unable to impose tangible energy sanctions on Russia due to its enduring dependence on imports of natural gas.

  • Germany will remain the largest importer of oil and gas over the next ten years. 

  • The German state is providing loan guarantees to boost German companies competitiveness in securing LNG. We see this as a direct move to facilitate diversification away from Russian gas.

  • New regulations governing the application of hydraulic fracturing are being drawn up by the German government. We believe they will be sufficiently restrictive to hinder major investment in shale gas as they prohibit drilling in prospective shale areas and ban some chemicals used in frac fluids.

  • Natural gas consumption in Germany continues to be put under pressure from a glut of cheap coal and generous...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Industry Forecast
11
Oil And Gas Reserves
11
Table: Germany Proven Oil & Gas Reserves And Total Petroleum Data, 2012-2017
11
Table: Germany Proven Oil & Gas Reserves And Total Petroleum Data, 2018-2023
12
Oil Supply And Demand
15
Table: Germany Oil Production And Net Exports, 2012-2017
15
Table: Germany Oil Production And Net Exports, 2018-2023
16
Refining And Oil Products Trade
20
Table: Germany Refining - Production and Consumption, 2012-2017
20
Table: Germany Refining - Production and Consumption, 2018-2023
21
Gas Supply And Demand
24
Table: Germany Gas Production, Consumption And Net Exports, 2012-2017
24
Table: Germany Gas Production, Consumption And Net Exports, 2018-2023
25
Table: Planned Gas-Fired Capacity Closures
30
Revenues/Import Costs
31
Risks To Outlook
31
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
32
North America And Western Europe - Risk/Reward Ratings
32
Table: North America & Western Europe States Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Ratings
33
Upstream: US Catches Up To Canada
33
Table: Oil & Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Ratings
34
Western Europe Upstream Languishes Without Shale Outlook
36
Downstream: US Comes Out Tops
38
Table: Oil & Gas Downstream Risk/Reward Ratings
38
Germany Risk/Reward Ratings
43
Market Overview
44
Germany Energy Market Overview
44
Table: Gas Fired Power Plants At Risk Under Current Policy
45
Overview/State Role
46
Licensing/Regulation
47
Government Policy
48
International Energy Relations
48
Oil And Gas Infrastructure
49
Oil Refineries
49
Table: BMI Germany Upstream Database
50
Service Stations
50
Oil Pipelines
50
Gas Pipelines
51
Gas Storage
53
LNG Terminals
54
Competitive Landscape
55
Competitive Landscape Summary
55
Table: Key Players - German Oil & Gas Sector
56
Company Profile
57
Royal Dutch Shell
57
BP
60
Total
63
ExxonMobil
65
PKN Orlen
68
OMV
71
Other Summaries
75
Regional Overview
81
North America & Western Europe Overview
81
North America
82
Europe
86
Muted Consumption Growth
90
Refining Capacity: A Tale Of Two Continents
91
Global Industry Overview
93
Global Energy Market Overview
93
OPEC Reconsiders Modus Operandi
95
Production Outages Look Likely To Persist
96
Global Oil Demand Picks Up
97
Capex Growth Cycle Shifting Gears
99
Table: BMI Oil Price Forecasts, Annual Average, USD/bbl
99
Appendix
102
Developed Europe - Regional Appendix
102
Table: Oil Consumption - Historical Data And Forecasts, 2011-2018 ('000b/d)
102
Table: Oil Consumption - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 ('000b/d)
103
Table: Oil Production - Historical Data And Forecasts, 2011-2018 ('000b/d)
103
Table: Oil Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 ('000b/d)
104
Table: Refinery Capacity - Historical Data And Forecasts, 2011-2018 ('000b/d)
104
Table: Refining Capacity - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 ('000b/d)
105
Table: Gas Consumption - Historical Data And Forecasts, 2011-2018 (bcm)
105
Table: Gas Consumption - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 (bcm)
106
Table: Gas Production - Historical Data And Forecasts, 2011-2018 (bcm)
106
Table: Gas Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 (bcm)
107
Table: LNG Gas Imports (Exports) - Historical Data And Forecasts, 2011-2018 (bcm)
107
Table: LNG Gas Imports (Exports) - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 (bcm)
108
Germany - Refined Products Breakdown, 10-year Forecasts
109
Table: Germany Refined Petroleum Products, Production Breakdown 2012-2017
109
Table: Germany Refined Petroleum Products, Production Breakdown 2018-2023
110
Table: Germany Refined Petroleum Products, Consumption Breakdown 2012-2017
111
Table: Germany Refined Petroleum Products, Consumption Breakdown 2018-2023
112
Table: Germany Refined Petroleum Products, Net Exports Breakdown 2012-2017
114
Table: Germany Refined Petroleum Products, Net Exports Breakdown 2018-2023
115
Glossary
116
Table: Glossary Of Terms
116
Methodology
118
Industry Forecast Methodology
118
Source
120
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
120
Table: Bmi's Oil & Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Ratings
122
Table: Weighting
123

The Germany Oil & Gas Report has been researched at source and features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s independent forecasts for Germany including major indicators for oil, gas and LNG, covering all major indicators including reserves, production, consumption, refining capacity, prices, export volumes and values. The report includes full analysis of industry trends and prospects, national and multinational companies and changes in the regulatory environment.

BMI's Germany Oil & Gas Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the German oil and gas industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent oil and gas industry forecasts for Germany to test consensus views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the German oil and gas market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the German oil and gas sector through reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Germany.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and Competitive Landscape Tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI's key forecasts and industry analysis, covering oil and gas reserves, supply, demand and refining, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.

Regional Overview

Regional perspective on size and value of industry sector; comparative rankings by production, refining, imports and exports of oil, gas and LNG.

Business Environment Rankings

BMI's Oil and Gas Business Environment Rankings provide a country-comparative Risk-Reward Rankings index aimed at investors (independents, NOCs, IOCs and oil services companies) in the upstream and downstream markets.

The rankings methodology makes sophisticated use of more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points and is part of BMI's integrated Country Risk-Industry Rankings products.

Oil Market Outlook and Oil Products Outlook

Based on our country coverage of over 99% of global oil and gas production and consumption, BMI provides demand, supply and price forecasts to end-2018 for oil, gas and oil products

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:

Pricing: Oil price (US$/bbl, WTI, Brent, OPEC basket, Urals); Oil products prices (unleaded gasoline, gasoil/diesel, jet/kerosene - US$/bbl) at global hubs

Production, Consumption, Capacity and Reserves: Proven oil reserves (bn barrels), production, consumption, refinery capacity and throughputs (`000b/d); Proven gas reserves (tcm), production and consumption (bcm)

Imports and Exports: Oil exports/imports (`000b/d), value of oil exports/imports (US$mn - BMI base case); Value of oil exports at constant US$50/bbl and constant US$100/bbl (US$mn); Gas exports/imports (bcm), Value of gas exports/imports (US$mn); Value of gas exports/imports at constant US$50/bbl and US$100/bbl (US$mn); Value of petroleum exports/imports (US$mn); Value of petroleum exports/imports at constant US$50/bbl and US$100/bbl (US$mn)

BMI Macroeconomic Forecasts

BMI forecasts to end-2018 for all headline macroeconomic indicators, including real GDP growth, inflation, fiscal balance, trade balance, current account and external debt.

Competitive Landscape

Comparative company analyses by US$ sales, % share of total sales, number of employees, year established, ownership structure, oil production ('000b/d), gas production (bcm), downstream capacity ('000b/d) and % market share.

Company Profiles

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc