Business Monitor International


Germany Oil & Gas Report

Published 17 December 2014

  • 134 pages
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$1,295.00
Germany Oil & Gas Report

BMI View: Germany will remain the biggest consumer and importer of oil in Western Europe for the next 10 years. The country will also be the largest importer of natural gas.

Headline Forecasts (Germany 2012-2018)
2012 2013 2014f 2015f 2016f 2017f 2018f
Crude, NGPL & other liquids prod, 000b/d 79.7 78.8 79.3 79.3 79.9 80.3 80.2
Dry natural gas production, bcm 10.8 9.8 9.0 8.2 7.6 7.2 6.8
Dry natural gas consumption, bcm 82.3 79.8 73.4 74.2 75.6 76.8 77.9
Refined products production & ethanol, 000b/d 2,097.0 2,061.0 2,040.4 2,032.2 2,016.0 2,007.9 2,001.9
Refined products consumption & ethanol, 000b/d 2,463.2 2,449.6 2,441.7 2,436.6 2,431.7 2,429.7 2,423.7
e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: EIA, BMI

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The main trends and developments in Germany's oil and gas sector are:

  • Germany will remain the largest importer of oil and gas over the next 10 years. Germany has refrained from an all-out hydraulic fracturing ban. However, new regulations being drawn up to govern the process are expected to be sufficiently restrictive to support serious investment in shale gas.

  • In November 2014, Rose Petroleum, which had been active in a number of onshore areas in Germany, pulled out of two shale gas exploration licenses citing unclear political support.

  • The German state is providing loan guarantees to boost German companies competitiveness in securing LNG. We see this as a direct move to facilitate diversification away from Russian gas.

  • A decision on allowing Gazprom further access to the OPAL pipeline has been delayed from October 2014 to January 2015.

  • Natural gas consumption in Germany continues to be put under pressure from a glut of cheap coal and generous renewable subsidies.

  • There is some upside to oil reserves and production from new investments by independents targeting enhanced oil...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
Table: Headline Forecasts (Germany 2012-2018)
7
SWOT
9
Oil & Gas SWOT
9
Industry Forecast
11
Upstream Exploration
11
Table: Proven Oil and Gas Reserves (Germany 2012-2017)
11
Table: Proven Oil and Gas Reserves (Germany 2018-2023)
11
Upstream Production - Oil
14
Table: Oil Production (Germany 2012-2017)
14
Table: Oil Production (Germany 2018-2023)
14
Upstream Production - Gas
17
Table: Gas Production (Germany 2012-2017)
17
Table: Gas Production (Germany 2018-2023)
17
Refining
21
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Germany 2012-2017)
21
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Germany 2018-2023)
21
Refined Fuels Consumption
23
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Germany 2012-2017)
23
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Germany 2018-2023)
23
Gas Consumption
25
Table: Gas Consumption (Germany 2012-2017)
25
Table: Gas Consumption (Germany 2018-2023)
25
Table: Planned Gas-Fired Capacity Closures
27
Trade - Oil
28
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Germany 2012-2017)
28
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Germany 2018-2023)
28
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Germany 2012-2017)
29
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Germany 2018-2023)
30
Table: Total Net Oil Exports - Crude and Products (Germany 2012-2017)
31
Table: Total Net Oil Exports - Crude and Products (Germany 2018-2023)
32
Trade - Gas (Pipeline and LNG)
33
Table: Gas Net Exports (Germany 2012-2017)
33
Table: Gas Net Exports (Germany 2018-2023)
34
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
36
North America And Western Europe - Risk/Reward Ratings
36
Table: North America & Western Europe States Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Ratings
37
Upstream: US Nearly On Par With Canada
37
Table: Oil & Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Ratings
37
Western Europe Languishes Without Shale Outlook
40
Downstream: US Comes Out Tops
42
Table: Oil & Gas Downstream Risk/Reward Ratings
42
Germany Risk/Reward Ratings
45
Market Overview
47
Germany Energy Market Overview
47
Table: Gas Fired Power Plants At Risk Under Current Policy
49
Overview/State Role
50
Licensing/Regulation
50
Government Policy
50
International Energy Relations
51
Oil And Gas Infrastructure
51
Oil Refineries
51
Table: Germany Refineries
52
Service Stations
52
Oil Pipelines
53
Gas Pipelines
53
Gas Storage
55
LNG Terminals
56
Competitive Landscape
57
Competitive Landscape Summary
57
Table: Key Players - German Oil & Gas Sector
58
Company Profile
59
Royal Dutch Shell
59
BP
62
Total
65
ExxonMobil
67
PKN Orlen
70
OMV
73
Other Summaries
77
Regional Overview
81
Industry News
81
Global Industry Overview
90
Global Energy Market Overview
90
Appendix
96
Global - Crude Oil, Refined Fuels And Natural Gas Prices, 10-year Forecasts
96
Table: Energy Price Forecasts, 2012-2017
96
Table: Energy Price Forecasts, 2018-2023
97
Developed Europe - Regional Appendix
99
Table: Oil Consumption - Historical Data And Forecasts, 2011-2018 ('000b/d)
99
Table: Oil Consumption - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 ('000b/d)
100
Table: Oil Production - Historical Data And Forecasts, 2011-2018 ('000b/d)
100
Table: Oil Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 ('000b/d)
101
Table: Refinery Capacity - Historical Data And Forecasts, 2011-2018 ('000b/d)
101
Table: Refining Capacity - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 ('000b/d)
102
Table: Gas Consumption - Historical Data And Forecasts, 2011-2018 (bcm)
102
Table: Gas Consumption - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 (bcm)
103
Table: Gas Production - Historical Data And Forecasts, 2011-2018 (bcm)
103
Table: Gas Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 (bcm)
104
Table: LNG Gas Imports (Exports) - Historical Data And Forecasts, 2011-2018 (bcm)
104
Table: LNG Gas Imports (Exports) - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 (bcm)
105
Germany - Refined Products Breakdown, 10-year Forecasts
106
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Production Breakdown (Germany 2012-2017)
106
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Production Breakdown (Germany 2018-2023)
107
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Consumption Breakdown (Germany 2012-2017)
108
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Consumption Breakdown (Germany 2018-2023)
109
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Net Exports Breakdown (Germany 2012-2017)
110
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Net Exports Breakdown (Germany 2018-2023)
112
Germany - Total Hydrocarbons, 10-year Forecasts
112
Table: Total Hydrocarbons Production, Consumption and Net Exports (Germany 2012-2017)
112
Table: Total Hydrocarbons Production, Consumption and Net Exports (Germany 2018-2023)
113
Glossary
114
Table: Glossary Of Terms
114
Methodology
116
Industry Forecast Methodology
116
Source
118
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
118
Table: Bmi's Oil & Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Ratings
120
Table: Weighting
121

The Germany Oil & Gas Report has been researched at source and features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s independent forecasts for Germany including major indicators for oil, gas and LNG, covering all major indicators including reserves, production, consumption, refining capacity, prices, export volumes and values. The report includes full analysis of industry trends and prospects, national and multinational companies and changes in the regulatory environment.

BMI's Germany Oil & Gas Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the German oil and gas industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent oil and gas industry forecasts for Germany to test consensus views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the German oil and gas market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the German oil and gas sector through reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Germany.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and Competitive Landscape Tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI's key forecasts and industry analysis, covering oil and gas reserves, supply, demand and refining, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.

Regional Overview

Regional perspective on size and value of industry sector; comparative rankings by production, refining, imports and exports of oil, gas and LNG.

Business Environment Rankings

BMI's Oil and Gas Business Environment Rankings provide a country-comparative Risk-Reward Rankings index aimed at investors (independents, NOCs, IOCs and oil services companies) in the upstream and downstream markets.

The rankings methodology makes sophisticated use of more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points and is part of BMI's integrated Country Risk-Industry Rankings products.

Oil Market Outlook and Oil Products Outlook

Based on our country coverage of over 99% of global oil and gas production and consumption, BMI provides demand, supply and price forecasts to end-2018 for oil, gas and oil products

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:

Pricing: Oil price (US$/bbl, WTI, Brent, OPEC basket, Urals); Oil products prices (unleaded gasoline, gasoil/diesel, jet/kerosene - US$/bbl) at global hubs

Production, Consumption, Capacity and Reserves: Proven oil reserves (bn barrels), production, consumption, refinery capacity and throughputs (`000b/d); Proven gas reserves (tcm), production and consumption (bcm)

Imports and Exports: Oil exports/imports (`000b/d), value of oil exports/imports (US$mn - BMI base case); Value of oil exports at constant US$50/bbl and constant US$100/bbl (US$mn); Gas exports/imports (bcm), Value of gas exports/imports (US$mn); Value of gas exports/imports at constant US$50/bbl and US$100/bbl (US$mn); Value of petroleum exports/imports (US$mn); Value of petroleum exports/imports at constant US$50/bbl and US$100/bbl (US$mn)

BMI Macroeconomic Forecasts

BMI forecasts to end-2018 for all headline macroeconomic indicators, including real GDP growth, inflation, fiscal balance, trade balance, current account and external debt.

Competitive Landscape

Comparative company analyses by US$ sales, % share of total sales, number of employees, year established, ownership structure, oil production ('000b/d), gas production (bcm), downstream capacity ('000b/d) and % market share.

Company Profiles

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc