Business Monitor International


Germany Oil & Gas Report

Published 04 March 2014

  • 134 pages
  • Instant access to your report online and PDF format through your account library
  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
 
$1,295.00
Germany Oil & Gas Report

BMI View: We see only limited upside to the current bearish outlook for domestic oil and gas production in Germany. T here ar e some areas of opportunity, including re development of maturing sites , enhanced oil recovery and the upside from underexplored regions in East Germany. The largest source of upside risk is from unconventional gas development, though the sector remains mired in political and environmental un certainty. The CDU-SDP coalition agreement to form a new government outlined that the use of hydraulic fracturing remains too high - risk , largely due to potential water contamination. As such, it is unlikely much progress will be made in this area for at least four years.

The main trends and developments in Germany's oil and gas sector are:

  • Germany's latest government has seen a grand coalition formed between the CDU and SPD. In the agreement signed by the two parties it was outlined that hydraulic fracturing technology is considered too high a risk, as it could threaten water quality. With this decision in place, it is now likely that no progress is will be made on Germany's considerable shale gas resources, at least over the next four years.

  • Natural gas consumption in Germany continues to be put under pressure from a glut of cheap coal and generous renewable subsidies. Supporting gas demand will be greater utilisation of gas as transport fuel, the phasing out of nuclear and gas-fired power generation as a back-up to intermittent renewables. However, these upside factors will be kept in check by energy efficiency gains which have seen gas consumption fall since the early 2000s, ambitious subsidised renewable projects and government targets, as well as cheap and abundant coal.

  • While we see limited upside to conventional gas production, which looks set to continue its downward trend, there is some upside to oil reserves and production from new investments by independents targeting enhanced oil recovery utilising new technologies...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Industry Forecast
11
Oil And Gas Reserves
11
Table: Germany Proven Oil & Gas Reserves And Total Petroleum Data, 2012-2017
11
Table: Germany Proven Oil & Gas Reserves And Total Petroleum Data, 2018-2023
12
Oil Supply And Demand
15
Table: Germany Oil Production And Net Exports, 2012-2017
15
Table: Germany Oil Production And Net Exports, 2018-2023
16
Refining And Oil Products Trade
20
Table: Germany Refining - Production and Consumption, 2012-2017
20
Table: Germany Refining - Production and Consumption, 2018-2023
21
Gas Supply And Demand
23
Table: Germany Gas Production, Consumption And Net Exports, 2012-2017
23
Table: Germany Gas Production, Consumption And Net Exports, 2018-2023
24
Table: Planned Gas-Fired Capacity Closures
30
Revenues/Import Costs
31
Risks To Outlook
31
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
32
North America And Western Europe - Risk/Reward Ratings
32
Table: Oil & Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Ratings
33
Western Europe Languishes Without Shale Outlook
35
Downstream: US Comes Out Tops
37
Table: Oil & Gas Downstream Risk/Reward Ratings
37
Table: North America & Western Europe States Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Ratings
43
Germany Risk/Reward Ratings
44
Market Overview
45
Germany Energy Market Overview
45
Table: Gas Fired Power Plants At Risk Under Current Policy
47
Overview/State Role
48
Licensing/Regulation
48
Government Policy
50
International Energy Relations
50
Oil And Gas Infrastructure
51
Oil Refineries
51
Table: BMI Germany Upstream Database
52
Service Stations
55
Oil Pipelines
56
Gas Pipelines
57
Gas Storage
60
LNG Terminals
61
Competitive Landscape
62
Competitive Landscape Summary
62
Competitive Landscape Summary
62
Table: Key Players - German Oil & Gas Sector
63
Company Profile
64
Royal Dutch Shell
64
BP
67
Total
70
ExxonMobil
72
PKN Orlen
75
OMV
78
Other Summaries
82
Regional Overview
89
North America & Western Europe Overview
89
North America
90
Table: Canadian LNG Export Terminal Project Applications
95
Europe
96
Muted Consumption Growth
101
The Difficulty In Moving Exports Along
103
Refining Capacity: A Tale Of Two Continents
104
Global Industry Overview
106
Appendix
113
Developed Europe - Regional Appendix
113
Table: Oil Consumption - Historical Data And Forecasts, 2011-2018 ('000b/d)
113
Table: Oil Consumption - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2022 ('000b/d)
114
Table: Oil Production - Historical Data And Forecasts, 2011-2018 ('000b/d)
114
Table: Oil Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2022 ('000b/d)
115
Table: Refinery Capacity - Historical Data And Forecasts, 2011-2018 ('000b/d)
115
Table: Refining Capacity - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2022 ('000b/d)
116
Table: Gas Consumption - Historical Data And Forecasts, 2011-2018 (bcm)
116
Table: Gas Consumption - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2022 (bcm)
117
Table: Gas Production - Historical Data And Forecasts, 2011-2018 (bcm)
117
Table: Gas Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2022 (bcm)
118
Table: LNG Gas Imports (Exports) - Historical Data And Forecasts, 2011-2018 (bcm)
118
Table: LNG Gas Imports (Exports) - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2022 (bcm)
119
Germany - Refined Products Breakdown, 10-year Forecasts
119
Table: Germany Refined Petroleum Products, Production Breakdown 2012-2017
119
Table: Germany Refined Petroleum Products, Production Breakdown 2018-2023
120
Table: Germany Refined Petroleum Products, Consumption Breakdown 2012-2017
121
Table: Germany Refined Petroleum Products, Consumption Breakdown 2018-2023
123
Table: Germany Refined Petroleum Products, Net Exports Breakdown 2012-2017
124
Table: Germany Refined Petroleum Products, Net Exports Breakdown 2018-2023
124
Glossary
126
Table: Glossary Of Terms
126
Methodology
128
Industry Forecast Methodology
128
Source
130
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
130
Table: Bmi's Oil & Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Ratings
132
Table: Weighting
134

The Germany Oil & Gas Report has been researched at source and features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s independent forecasts for Germany including major indicators for oil, gas and LNG, covering all major indicators including reserves, production, consumption, refining capacity, prices, export volumes and values. The report includes full analysis of industry trends and prospects, national and multinational companies and changes in the regulatory environment.

BMI's Germany Oil & Gas Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the German oil and gas industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent oil and gas industry forecasts for Germany to test consensus views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the German oil and gas market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the German oil and gas sector through reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Germany.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and Competitive Landscape Tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI's key forecasts and industry analysis, covering oil and gas reserves, supply, demand and refining, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.

Regional Overview

Regional perspective on size and value of industry sector; comparative rankings by production, refining, imports and exports of oil, gas and LNG.

Business Environment Ratings

BMI's Oil and Gas Business Environment Ratings provide a country-comparative Risk-Reward Ratings index aimed at investors (independents, NOCs, IOCs and oil services companies) in the upstream and downstream markets.

The ratings methodology makes sophisticated use of more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points and is part of BMI's integrated Country Risk-Industry Ratings products.

Oil Market Outlook and Oil Products Outlook

Based on our country coverage of over 99% of global oil and gas production and consumption, BMI provides demand, supply and price forecasts to end-2018 for oil, gas and oil products

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:

Pricing: Oil price (US$/bbl, WTI, Brent, OPEC basket, Urals); Oil products prices (unleaded gasoline, gasoil/diesel, jet/kerosene - US$/bbl) at global hubs

Production, Consumption, Capacity and Reserves: Proven oil reserves (bn barrels), production, consumption, refinery capacity and throughputs (`000b/d); Proven gas reserves (tcm), production and consumption (bcm)

Imports and Exports: Oil exports/imports (`000b/d), value of oil exports/imports (US$mn - BMI base case); Value of oil exports at constant US$50/bbl and constant US$100/bbl (US$mn); Gas exports/imports (bcm), Value of gas exports/imports (US$mn); Value of gas exports/imports at constant US$50/bbl and US$100/bbl (US$mn); Value of petroleum exports/imports (US$mn); Value of petroleum exports/imports at constant US$50/bbl and US$100/bbl (US$mn)

BMI Macroeconomic Forecasts

BMI forecasts to end-2018 for all headline macroeconomic indicators, including real GDP growth, inflation, fiscal balance, trade balance, current account and external debt.

Competitive Landscape

Comparative company analyses by US$ sales, % share of total sales, number of employees, year established, ownership structure, oil production ('000b/d), gas production (bcm), downstream capacity ('000b/d) and % market share.

Company Profiles

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

secure
Benefit from discounts when you add multiple products to your basket
2 Products SAVE 10%
3 Products SAVE 15%
4 Products SAVE 20%
5 Products SAVE 25%
6 Products SAVE 30%
7 - 20 Products SAVE 35%
21 Products or more SAVE 40%

Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc