BMI View : We expect Germany's mining sector value will decline over the coming years, falling to US$ 2.88 bn in 201 7 , from US$ 3.31 bn in 201 2 . This decline will be driven by falling coal production as the country phases out state funding of the coal industry to meet EU regulations. We therefore expect the mining sector's share of GDP to continue falling over the next decade with little hope of growth.
The German government's decision to summarily shut down eight of its nuclear power plants following Japan's Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant crisis, triggered by its major earthquake and tsunami in March 2011, has left the country between a rock and hard place. Scepticism about the current government's will and ability to replace nuclear generation with other renewable sources, rather than a medium-term surge in coal and gas consumption, rose sharply in the weeks after the U-turn. The government insisted that Germany has no intention of simply replacing nuclear power capacity with fossil fuels, however, and that the country remains committed to filling the generation shortfall with renewable energy. Nonetheless, Germany's coal consumption is likely to jump over the remainder of 2011 as a result of the reactor shutdowns.
| Decline To Set In |
|Germany - Mining Industry & Production Growth|
Germany's proposed phase-out of nuclear energy suggests that the country will need more coal plants. Over a dozen new coal plants are planned for the next several years, but they could damage the country's prospects of meeting its carbon emissions targets. The concomitant jump in coal-burn will boost coal consumption in the country, which at 76.5mn tonnes of oil equivalent, 16% of total European consumption, was second only to Russia in 2012 . Some utilities estimated that Germany will require an additional 2mn tonnes of coal from the spot market in 201 3 on the back of the policy move.
We expect Germany's iron ore sector to record modest...
The Germany Mining Report has been researched at source and features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s mining and commodity forecasts for metals, minerals and gems, covering all major indicators including reserves, production, exports and values. The report also analyses trends and prospects, national and multinational companies and changes in the regulatory environment.
BMI's Germany Mining Report provides industry strategists, service companies, company analysts and consultants, government departments, trade associations and regulatory bodies with BMI's independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the mining industry in Germany.
- Use BMI's independent industry forecasts on Germany to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and planning in this mining market.
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BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI's key forecasts and industry analysis, covering mining reserves, supply, demand and prices, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.
Business Environment Ratings
BMI's Mining Business Environment Ratings provide a country-comparative Risk-Reward Ratings index aimed at investors (mining companies and support service providers) in the regional mining market. The ratings methodology makes sophisticated use of over 40 industry, economic and demographic data points and is part of BMI's integrated Country Risk-Industry Ratings products.
Details and analysis of all current and planned developments (new ventures, capacity expansion and other investments) across the sector broken down by metal/ore.
BMI Industry Forecasts
Historic data series (2009-2012) and forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry and economic indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast. Indicators include:
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BMI forecasts to end-2018 for all headline macroeconomic indicators, including real GDP growth (%), inflation (%), fiscal balance (% of GDP), trade balance (US$bn), current account (US$bn) and external debt (US$bn).
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Comparative company analyses and tables detailing by US$ sales, % share of total sales, number of employees, year established, market cap/NAV, ownership structure, production and % market share.
Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.