Business Monitor International


Germany Mining Report

Published 19 April 2013

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Germany Mining Report

BMI View : We expect Germany's mining sector value will decline over the coming years, falling to US$ 2.88 bn in 201 7 , from US$ 3.31 bn in 201 2 . This decline will be driven by falling coal production as the country phases out state funding of the coal industry to meet EU regulations. We therefore expect the mining sector's share of GDP to continue falling over the next decade with little hope of growth.

The German government's decision to summarily shut down eight of its nuclear power plants following Japan's Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant crisis, triggered by its major earthquake and tsunami in March 2011, has left the country between a rock and hard place. Scepticism about the current government's will and ability to replace nuclear generation with other renewable sources, rather than a medium-term surge in coal and gas consumption, rose sharply in the weeks after the U-turn. The government insisted that Germany has no intention of simply replacing nuclear power capacity with fossil fuels, however, and that the country remains committed to filling the generation shortfall with renewable energy. Nonetheless, Germany's coal consumption is likely to jump over the remainder of 2011 as a result of the reactor shutdowns.

Decline To Set In
Germany - Mining Industry & Production Growth

Germany's proposed phase-out of nuclear energy suggests that the country will need more coal plants. Over a dozen new coal plants are planned for the next several years, but they could damage the country's prospects of meeting its carbon emissions targets. The concomitant jump in coal-burn will boost coal consumption in the country, which at 76.5mn tonnes of oil equivalent, 16% of total European consumption, was second only to Russia in 2012 . Some utilities estimated that Germany will require an additional 2mn tonnes of coal from the spot market in 201 3 on the back of the policy move.

We expect Germany's iron ore sector to record modest...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Industry Forecast
10
Coal: Sector In Terminal Decline
10
Table: Germany - Coal Production Forecast
11
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
12
Risk/Reward Ratings
12
Table: Mining Risk/Reward Ratings
12
Finland & Sweden
13
Russia: Mineral Wealth Fails To Hide Risks
13
Kazakhstan: Weak Infrastructure Restrains Growth Potential
14
Germany, Czech Republic And Slovakia: Few Rewards, Few Risks
16
Ukraine: Corruption & Unexplored Potential
16
Market Overview
17
Little Growth In Other Sectors
19
Table: Germany - Mining Industry Forecasts
19
Regulatory Development
20
Tax Regime
21
Commodities Forecast
23
Commodity Strategy
23
Table: BMI Commodity Strategy
31
Table: Select Metals - Performance And BMI Forecasts
32
Competitive Landscape
33
Table: Germany - Mining Company Profiles, 2012
34
Company Profile
35
Recylex
35
RWE AG
38
Table: RWE - Financial Results
40
Regional Overview
41
1
41
2
42
Table: Major Nordic Mining Projects
44
3
44
4
45
Table: Eastern Europe - Key Gold Projects
46
Global Industry Overview
47
Major Challenges Ahead
47
Table: Select Countries - Recent Tax Increases
51
Despite Challenges, Bright Spots Remain
51
Demographic Forecast
57
Table: Germany's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
58
Table: Germany's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
59
Table: Germany's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
60
Table: Germany's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
60
Methodology
61
Business Environment Ratings Methodology
61

The Germany Mining Report has been researched at source and features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s mining and commodity forecasts for metals, minerals and gems, covering all major indicators including reserves, production, exports and values. The report also analyses trends and prospects, national and multinational companies and changes in the regulatory environment.

BMI's Germany Mining Report provides industry strategists, service companies, company analysts and consultants, government departments, trade associations and regulatory bodies with BMI's independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the mining industry in Germany.

Key Benefits

  • Use BMI's independent industry forecasts on Germany to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and planning in this mining market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in Germany's mining sector through our reviews of latest mining industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Germany.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. KPIs and latest activity), Key Projects Tables and Competitive Landscape Tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI's key forecasts and industry analysis, covering mining reserves, supply, demand and prices, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.

Business Environment Ratings

BMI's Mining Business Environment Ratings provide a country-comparative Risk-Reward Ratings index aimed at investors (mining companies and support service providers) in the regional mining market. The ratings methodology makes sophisticated use of over 40 industry, economic and demographic data points and is part of BMI's integrated Country Risk-Industry Ratings products.

Key Projects

Details and analysis of all current and planned developments (new ventures, capacity expansion and other investments) across the sector broken down by metal/ore.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series (2009-2012) and forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry and economic indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast. Indicators include:

  • Mining Industry: Industry size (US$mn), real growth (%), % of GDP, employment ('000), workforce as % of total workforce, average wage (US$).
  • Output:Production volumes ('000 tonnes, carats etc.) for all major metals, minerals, ores and gems mined in each state, including bauxite, copper, gold, coal, lead, silver, tin, titanium, uranium, zinc etc.
  • Exports: Value of exports (US$mn) for all major metals, minerals, ores and gems mined in each state .
  • Commodity Markets: Global demand, supply, stocks and benchmark prices (US$) for aluminium, copper, lead, nickel, tin, zinc, gold and steel.

BMI Macroeconomic Forecasts

BMI forecasts to end-2018 for all headline macroeconomic indicators, including real GDP growth (%), inflation (%), fiscal balance (% of GDP), trade balance (US$bn), current account (US$bn) and external debt (US$bn).

Competitive Landscape Tables & Analysis

Comparative company analyses and tables detailing by US$ sales, % share of total sales, number of employees, year established, market cap/NAV, ownership structure, production and % market share.

Company Profiles

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc