We expect Germany's mining industry value to grow modestly, averaging 2.8% growth y-o-y from an estimated USD5.8bn in 2014 to USD6.8bn in 2018. Despite government efforts to switch to renewable energy sources for power generation, brown coal will remain a crucial fuel over coming years. As a consequence, lignite mining will endure in Germany over our forecast period to 2018.
| Modest Gains Over Coming Years |
|Germany - Mining Industry & Production Growth|
Beyond the coal sector, we expect Germany's iron ore sector to record modest growth in the next five years. Germany's iron ore production totalled 0.4mnt in 2012, accounting for a fraction of a percent of global output. We expect Germany's share of global iron ore output to decline over the coming years as our modest growth forecast is overshadowed by rapid growth elsewhere, mainly in Australia, Brazil and West Africa.
Aside from coal and iron ore, there is almost no mining activity in the rest of the country due to the high cost of labour, high power costs, relatively stringent regulation and the relative lack of significant mineral deposits. The majority of the country's mines which were operating in the 1990s closed due to weak metal prices.
The Germany Mining Report has been researched at source and features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s mining and commodity forecasts for metals, minerals and gems, covering all major indicators including reserves, production, exports and values. The report also analyses trends and prospects, national and multinational companies and changes in the regulatory environment.
BMI's Germany Mining Report provides industry strategists, service companies, company analysts and consultants, government departments, trade associations and regulatory bodies with BMI's independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the mining industry in Germany.
- Use BMI's independent industry forecasts on Germany to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and planning in this mining market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in Germany's mining sector through our reviews of latest mining industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Germany.
- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. KPIs and latest activity), Key Projects Tables and Competitive Landscape Tables.
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI's key forecasts and industry analysis, covering mining reserves, supply, demand and prices, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.
Business Environment Rankings
BMI's Mining Business Environment Rankings provide a country-comparative Risk-Reward Rankings index aimed at investors (mining companies and support service providers) in the regional mining market. The rankings methodology makes sophisticated use of over 40 industry, economic and demographic data points and is part of BMI's integrated Country Risk-Industry rankings products.
Details and analysis of all current and planned developments (new ventures, capacity expansion and other investments) across the sector broken down by metal/ore.
BMI Industry Forecasts
Historic data series (2009-2012) and forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry and economic indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast. Indicators include:
- Mining Industry: Industry size (US$mn), real growth (%), % of GDP, employment ('000), workforce as % of total workforce, average wage (US$).
- Output:Production volumes ('000 tonnes, carats etc.) for all major metals, minerals, ores and gems mined in each state, including bauxite, copper, gold, coal, lead, silver, tin, titanium, uranium, zinc etc.
- Exports: Value of exports (US$mn) for all major metals, minerals, ores and gems mined in each state .
- Commodity Markets: Global demand, supply, stocks and benchmark prices (US$) for aluminium, copper, lead, nickel, tin, zinc, gold and steel.
BMI Macroeconomic Forecasts
BMI forecasts to end-2018 for all headline macroeconomic indicators, including real GDP growth (%), inflation (%), fiscal balance (% of GDP), trade balance (US$bn), current account (US$bn) and external debt (US$bn).
Competitive Landscape Tables & Analysis
Comparative company analyses and tables detailing by US$ sales, % share of total sales, number of employees, year established, market cap/NAV, ownership structure, production and % market share.
Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.