Business Monitor International


Germany Mining Report

Published 19 May 2014

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Germany Mining Report

We expect Germany's mining industry value to grow modestly, averaging 2.8% growth y-o-y from an estimated USD5.8bn in 2014 to USD6.8bn in 2018. Despite government efforts to switch to renewable energy sources for power generation, brown coal will remain a crucial fuel over coming years. As a consequence, lignite mining will endure in Germany over our forecast period to 2018.

Modest Gains Over Coming Years
Germany - Mining Industry & Production Growth

Beyond the coal sector, we expect Germany's iron ore sector to record modest growth in the next five years. Germany's iron ore production totalled 0.4mnt in 2012, accounting for a fraction of a percent of global output. We expect Germany's share of global iron ore output to decline over the coming years as our modest growth forecast is overshadowed by rapid growth elsewhere, mainly in Australia, Brazil and West Africa.

Aside from coal and iron ore, there is almost no mining activity in the rest of the country due to the high cost of labour, high power costs, relatively stringent regulation and the relative lack of significant mineral deposits. The majority of the country's mines which were operating in the 1990s closed due to weak metal prices.

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Industry Forecast
10
Coal: Lignite Mining To Fight Back
10
Investment Continues To Be Forthcoming
11
Regional Employment A Considerable Factor
11
Cheap Coal Import Threat
12
ETS Reform Risk
13
Table: Coal Production Forecast (Germany 2010-2018)
14
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
15
Risk/Reward Ratings
15
Kazakhstan On Top; Russia Not Far Behind
16
Table: Mining Risk/Reward Ratings
17
Germany & Ukraine: Key Changers On Last Quarter
17
Weak Commodity Prices Weigh On Rewards Across The Board
18
Risk/Reward Ratings
18
Rewards
18
Industry Rewards
18
Country Rewards
18
Risks
19
Industry Risks
19
Country Risks
20
Table: Germany - Mine Production & % Growth
20
Regulatory Development
21
Tax Regime
21
Corruption
22
Table: Europe: Mining Regulatory Outlook
22
Commodities Forecast
24
Commodity Strategy
24
Iron Ore: Chinese Stimulus Not A Game Changer
24
Steel: Gradual Rationalisation Insufficient To Boost Prices
26
Aluminium: Recent Rally Unlikely To Persist Into H214
27
Copper: Bearish Forecast Appears Well Placed
28
Lead: Picking Up Autos Sector Tailwinds
29
Nickel: Recent Rise To Fall Back In H214
30
Zinc: Potential Test Of Resistance In Coming Weeks
32
Table: Select Commodities - Performance & BMI Forecasts
34
Competitive Landscape
35
Table: Germany - Largest Listed Mining & Metals Companies
35
Company Profile
37
Recylex
37
Table: Recylex - Key Financial Data
38
RWE AG
40
Table: RWE - Financial Results
42
Regional Overview
43
Europe Overview
43
1
43
2
45
3
47
Table: Europe: Mining Regulatory Outlook
47
4
48
5
49
Global Industry Overview
50
Challenges
50
Table: Mining - Select M&A Deals
54
Cause For Optimism
57
Methodology
64
Industry Forecast Methodology
64
Sources
65
Risk/Reward Rating Methodology
66
Table: Weighting Of Indicators
68

The Germany Mining Report has been researched at source and features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s mining and commodity forecasts for metals, minerals and gems, covering all major indicators including reserves, production, exports and values. The report also analyses trends and prospects, national and multinational companies and changes in the regulatory environment.

BMI's Germany Mining Report provides industry strategists, service companies, company analysts and consultants, government departments, trade associations and regulatory bodies with BMI's independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the mining industry in Germany.

Key Benefits

  • Use BMI's independent industry forecasts on Germany to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and planning in this mining market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in Germany's mining sector through our reviews of latest mining industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Germany.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. KPIs and latest activity), Key Projects Tables and Competitive Landscape Tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI's key forecasts and industry analysis, covering mining reserves, supply, demand and prices, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.

Business Environment Rankings

BMI's Mining Business Environment Rankings provide a country-comparative Risk-Reward Rankings index aimed at investors (mining companies and support service providers) in the regional mining market. The rankings methodology makes sophisticated use of over 40 industry, economic and demographic data points and is part of BMI's integrated Country Risk-Industry rankings products.

Key Projects

Details and analysis of all current and planned developments (new ventures, capacity expansion and other investments) across the sector broken down by metal/ore.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series (2009-2012) and forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry and economic indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast. Indicators include:

  • Mining Industry: Industry size (US$mn), real growth (%), % of GDP, employment ('000), workforce as % of total workforce, average wage (US$).
  • Output:Production volumes ('000 tonnes, carats etc.) for all major metals, minerals, ores and gems mined in each state, including bauxite, copper, gold, coal, lead, silver, tin, titanium, uranium, zinc etc.
  • Exports: Value of exports (US$mn) for all major metals, minerals, ores and gems mined in each state .
  • Commodity Markets: Global demand, supply, stocks and benchmark prices (US$) for aluminium, copper, lead, nickel, tin, zinc, gold and steel.

BMI Macroeconomic Forecasts

BMI forecasts to end-2018 for all headline macroeconomic indicators, including real GDP growth (%), inflation (%), fiscal balance (% of GDP), trade balance (US$bn), current account (US$bn) and external debt (US$bn).

Competitive Landscape Tables & Analysis

Comparative company analyses and tables detailing by US$ sales, % share of total sales, number of employees, year established, market cap/NAV, ownership structure, production and % market share.

Company Profiles

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc