Business Monitor International


Germany Metals Report

Published 24 December 2014

  • 58 pages
  • Instant access to your report online and PDF format through your account library
  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
 
$1,295.00
Germany Metals Report

Germany's metals sector will continue to feel the squeeze as output prices remain low and costs stay stubbornly high. We forecast subdued growth in consumption of key metals such as steel, copper and aluminium, chiefly due to a muted outlook for economic activity in the country. Key metal consuming sectors such as autos and construction will remain weak. For autos production, we do not foresee a return to growth until 2018 at the earliest.

Illustrative of challenges faced by the wider metals sector, steel mills will remain under significant pressure, as low output prices squeeze margins. This will encourage consolidation of operations and dampen output growth. We forecast that steel production will post only erratic growth in the coming years, as low prices will continue to bite.

Stagnation Ahead
Germany - Crude Steel Production

Three firms dominate steel production in Germany. ThyssenKrupp is Germany's largest steel maker and will be implementing significant job cuts in 2015. ArcelorMittal has a further 8.0mntpa (mn tonnes per annum) capacity at sites in Bremen, Duisburg, Eisenhüttenstadt and Hamburg. Due to its proximity to Poland, the Eisenhüttenstadt steelworks exports nearly half its output to Central and Eastern Europe. The other three ArcelorMittal facilities are reliant on Western European markets for their exports. Salzgitter AG is the third largest steelmaker with plants in Salzgitter and Peine in the middle of the country. Germany also hosts Europe's largest copper refiner, Aurubis AG.

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Metals SWOT
9
Industry Forecast
11
Steel: Only Modest Growth On The Horizon
11
Production To Remain Under Pressure
13
Table: Steel Production & Consumption (Germany 2010-2018)
14
Table: Steel Industry Historical Data (Germany 2005-2012)
14
Aluminium: Weak Prices To Restrain Production Growth
15
Table: Aluminium Production & Consumption (Germany 2010-2018)
18
Copper: Sector To Struggle
18
Table: Refined Copper Production, Consumption & Balance (Germany 2010-2018)
20
Regulatory Development
21
Table: Political Overview
24
Commodities Forecast
26
Commodity Strategy
26
Ferrous Metals:
26
Steel: Prices To Remain Subdued
28
Non-Ferrous Metals:
29
Aluminium: Price Strength To Continue In Q314
29
Copper: Further Decline By Year's End
30
Lead: Constructive Price Outlook
31
Nickel: Moderation To Continue
32
Tin: Upside Ahead
33
Zinc: Consolidation Before Multi-Year Gains
35
Table: Select Commodities - Performance & BMI Forecasts
37
Steel: Prices To Head Higher From 2016
37
Table: BMI Steel Price Forecast
37
Short-Term Outlook (three-to-six months)
37
Long-Term Outlook
38
Production: Chinese Rationalisation Measures To Bite
39
Consumption: Slowing Demand Growth On The Horizon
40
Burgeoning Chinese Exports Will Not Last
41
Eurozone Growth Downgrade Highlights Long Road To Recovery
42
Risks To Price Forecast
42
Table: Steel Data & Forecasts
43
Competitive Landscape
44
Table: Germany - Largest Listed Metals Producers
45
Company Profile
46
ArcelorMittal
46
Company Overview
48
Company Strategy
48
Latest Financial Results
50
Company Details
50
Financial Data
50
Table: ArcelorMittal - Key Financial Data
50
ThyssenKrupp AG
51
Table: ThyssenKrupp - Key Financial Data
53
Aurubis AG
55
Table: Aurubis - Key Financial Data
57
Methodology
59
Cross Checks
59

The Germany Metals Report has been researched at source, and features latest-available data for steel, aluminium and other major globally-traded commodities. Our analysis covers all primary indicators, including production, exports and price, with our forecasts underpinned by Business Monitor International (BMI)'s macroeconomists global economic outlook. The report analyses trends and prospects and critically evaluates latest industry news, trends and regulatory developments in Germany.

BMI's Germany Metals Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, business investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the metals industry in Germany.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent metals industry forecasts for Germany to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Germany metals market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in Germany through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major projects and investments.
  • Exploit the latest competitive intelligence and company profiles on your competitors and peers.

Coverag

BMI Industry View

A comprehensive summary of the impact and implications of the latest regulatory developments and key forecast indicators covering metals production, consumption and upside/downside risks to our outlook. The Metals SWOT analysis outlines strategic factors that affect the basic assumptions underpinning BMI’s forecast analysis, and taken together with BMI’s political, economic and business environment SWOTs, it gives a complete overview of market climate.

Industry Forecast

Industry forecasts to end-2019 for all key indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts:

  • Steel: Steel production & consumption (‘000 tonnes).
  • Aluminium: Aluminium consumption production & balance (‘000 tonnes).
  • Copper: Refined copper production & consumption (‘000 tonnes).
  • Zinc: Refined zinc production & consumption (‘000 tonnes).
  • Lead: Refined Lead production, consumption & balance (‘000 tonnes).
  • Nickel: Refined nickel production & consumption (‘000 tonnes).
  • Tin: Refined tin production, consumption & balance (‘000 tonnes).

Regulatory Development

Details of the industry regulatory framework, relevant key legislation and environmental standards that impact the metals industry. The regulatory developments section provides analysis of the overall regulatory burden, the tax regime (including income tax rates), bureaucratic framework, corruption and a country specific political overview. Details of the industry regulatory framework provide information on relevant key legislation and regulations that will impact the metals industry.

Commodities Forecast

Provides in depth coverage and forecasting of steel prices and includes BMI’s core view of what to expect in upcoming months. Within the monthly metals update, BMI provides performance data and key forecasts for select commodities, including prices for aluminium, copper, gold, iron ore, lead, nickel, palladium, platinum, silver, steel (MEPS Carbon Steel), tin and zinc.

Competitive landscape

The competitive landscape section provides comparative company analyses of detailed financial data for key listed metals firms, ranked in order of market cap (USDmn).

Company Profiles*

Examines the competitive position and short to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects. Details of products and services provide a full overview of each company’s operations.

Sources

The Metals Reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as manufacturing associations, statistical bureaus, government ministries, national chambers of commerce and industry, national statistical offices, government ministries and central banks, and multinational companies.

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.

secure
Benefit from discounts when you add multiple products to your basket
2 Products SAVE 10%
3 Products SAVE 15%
4 Products SAVE 20%
5 Products SAVE 25%
6 Products SAVE 30%
7 - 20 Products SAVE 35%
21 Products or more SAVE 40%

Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc