Business Monitor International


Germany Metals Report

Published 01 July 2014

  • 62 pages
 
$1,295.00
Germany Metals Report

Germany's metals sector will continue to feel the squeeze as output prices remain low and costs stay stubbornly high. We forecast subdued growth in consumption of key metals such as steel, copper and aluminium, chiefly due to a muted outlook for economic activity in the country. Key metal consuming sectors such as autos and construction will remain weak. For autos production, we do not foresee a return to growth until 2018 at the earliest.

Illustrative of challenges faced by the wider metals sector, steel mills will remain under significant pressure, as low output prices squeeze margins. This will encourage consolidation of operations and dampen output growth. We forecast that steel production will post only erratic growth in the coming years, as low prices will continue to bite.

Three firms dominate steel production in Germany. ThyssenKrupp is Germany's largest steel maker and will be implementing significant job cuts in 2014. ArcelorMittal has a further 8.0mntpa (mn tonnes per annum) capacity at sites in Bremen, Duisburg, Eisenhüttenstadt and Hamburg. Due to its proximity to Poland, the Eisenhüttenstadt steelworks exports nearly half its output to Central and Eastern Europe. The other three ArcelorMittal facilities are reliant on Western European markets for their exports. Salzgitter AG is the third largest steelmaker with plants in Salzgitter and Peine in the middle of the country. Germany also hosts Europe's largest copper refiner, Aurubis AG.

Stagnation Ahead
Germany - Crude Steel Production

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Metals SWOT
9
Industry Forecast
11
Steel: Few Gains Ahead
11
Production To Remain Under Pressure
13
Table: Steel Production & Consumption (Germany 2010-2018)
14
Table: Steel Industry Historical Data (Germany 2005-2012)
15
Aluminium: Low Prices To Constrain Sector
16
Table: Aluminium Production & Consumption (Germany 2010-2018)
19
Copper: Sector To Struggle
19
Table: Refined Copper Production, Consumption & Balance (Germany 2010-2018)
22
Lead: Holding Steady
22
Table: Germany - Lead Production & Consumption
25
Regulatory Development
26
Table: Political Overview
29
Commodities Forecast
31
Commodity Strategy
31
Iron Ore: Not Much Respite In Sight
31
Steel: Production Rationalisation Too Slow To Provide Price Upside
33
Aluminium: Further Price Rally Unlikely
34
Lead: Ripe For A H214 Boost
35
Copper: Consensus Moving Our Way
36
Nickel: Price Surge To Abate Further
37
Tin: In A Sweet Spot
38
Zinc: Bullish Short-Term Picture
39
Table: Select Commodities - Performance & BMI Forecasts
41
Commodities Forecast
41
Table: BMI Steel Price Forecast
41
Short-Term Outlook
41
Core View
42
Surplus Set To Slim
43
Production: Reining In Growth
43
Consumption: Deceleration Ahead
45
No Respite From Chinese Exports Over Coming Months
47
Arbitrage Set To Grow Between East And West
47
Risks To Price Outlook
48
Table: Steel Data & Forecasts
49
Table: Global Steel Prices By Region & Product, USD/tonne (average)
49
Competitive Landscape
51
Table: Germany - Largest Listed Metals Producers
52
Company Profile
53
ArcelorMittal
53
Company Overview
55
Company Strategy
55
Latest Financial Results
57
Company Details
57
Financial Data
57
Table: ArcelorMittal - Key Financial Data
57
ThyssenKrupp AG
58
Table: ThyssenKrupp - Key Financial Data
60
Methodology
62
Cross Checks
62

The Germany Metals Report has been researched at source, and features latest-available data for steel, aluminium and other major globally-traded commodities. Our analysis covers all primary indicators, including production, exports and price, with our forecasts underpinned by Business Monitor International (BMI)'s macroeconomists global economic outlook. The report analyses trends and prospects and critically evaluates latest industry news, trends and regulatory developments in Germany.

BMI's Germany Metals Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, business investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the metals industry in Germany.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent metals industry forecasts for Germany to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Germany metals market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in Germany through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major projects and investments.
  • Exploit the latest competitive intelligence and company profiles on your competitors and peers.

Coverage

Executive Summary

Summary of BMI's key forecasts and industry analysis, covering metals production and prices, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.

SWOT Analysis

SWOT (Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats) analysis of the state's metals sector, business environment, politics and economics, which carefully evaluates the short- and medium-term issues facing the industry.

Global Metals Market Overview

Global demand, supply and price forecasts for steel and aluminium, as well as gold, copper and tin, drawing on both our industry expertise and our macroeconomic and financial market team's long-term global demand forecasts and shorter-term market views.

Industry Forecasts

Historic data series and forecasts to end-2017 for all key industry indicators (see list below) supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast.

Production (`000 tonnes, US$bn), consumption (`000 tonnes, US$bn), exports (`000 tonnes, US$bn); prices (US$/tonne), and growth (%).

Macroeconomic Forecasts

BMI forecasts to end-2017 for headline country macroeconomic indicators, including real GDP growth (%), GDP per capita (US$), population (mn), industrial production index (% y-o-y average) and unemployment (% of labour force).

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