Germany's metals sector will continue to feel the squeeze as output prices remain low and costs stay stubbornly high. We forecast subdued growth in consumption of key metals such as steel, copper and aluminium, chiefly due to a muted outlook for economic activity in the country. Key metal consuming sectors such as autos and construction will remain weak. For autos production, we do not foresee a return to growth until 2018 at the earliest.
Illustrative of challenges faced by the wider metals sector, steel mills will remain under significant pressure, as low output prices squeeze margins. This will encourage consolidation of operations and dampen output growth. We forecast that steel production will post only erratic growth in the coming years, as low prices will continue to bite. We forecast steel output of 42.8mn tonnes (mnt) in 2017, just 0.7% above 2012 output and 11.8% below the 2007 peak.
Three firms dominate steel production in Germany. ThyssenKrupp is Germany's largest steel maker and will be implementing significant job cuts in 2014. ArcelorMittal has a further 8.0mntpa (mn tonnes per annum) capacity at sites in Bremen, Duisburg, Eisenhüttenstadt and Hamburg. Due to its proximity to Poland, the Eisenhüttenstadt steelworks exports nearly half its output to Central and Eastern Europe. The other three ArcelorMittal facilities are reliant on Western European markets for their exports. Salzgitter AG is the third largest steelmaker with plants in Salzgitter and Peine in the middle of the country. Germany also hosts Europe's largest copper refiner, Aurubis AG.
| Stagnation Ahead |
|Germany - Crude Steel Production|
The Germany Metals Report has been researched at source, and features latest-available data for steel, aluminium and other major globally-traded commodities. Our analysis covers all primary indicators, including production, exports and price, with our forecasts underpinned by Business Monitor International (BMI)'s macroeconomists global economic outlook. The report analyses trends and prospects and critically evaluates latest industry news, trends and regulatory developments in Germany.
BMI's Germany Metals Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, business investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the metals industry in Germany.
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Summary of BMI's key forecasts and industry analysis, covering metals production and prices, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.
SWOT (Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats) analysis of the state's metals sector, business environment, politics and economics, which carefully evaluates the short- and medium-term issues facing the industry.
Global Metals Market Overview
Global demand, supply and price forecasts for steel and aluminium, as well as gold, copper and tin, drawing on both our industry expertise and our macroeconomic and financial market team's long-term global demand forecasts and shorter-term market views.
Historic data series and forecasts to end-2017 for all key industry indicators (see list below) supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast.
Production (`000 tonnes, US$bn), consumption (`000 tonnes, US$bn), exports (`000 tonnes, US$bn); prices (US$/tonne), and growth (%).
BMI forecasts to end-2017 for headline country macroeconomic indicators, including real GDP growth (%), GDP per capita (US$), population (mn), industrial production index (% y-o-y average) and unemployment (% of labour force).