Business Monitor International


Germany Metals Report

Published 01 April 2014

  • 62 pages
  • Instant access to your report online and PDF format through your account library
  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
 
$1,295.00
Germany Metals Report

Germany's metals sector will continue to feel the squeeze as output prices remain low and costs stay stubbornly high. We forecast subdued growth in consumption of key metals such as steel, copper and aluminium, chiefly due to a muted outlook for economic activity in the country. Key metal consuming sectors such as autos and construction will remain weak. For autos production, we do not foresee a return to growth until 2018 at the earliest.

Illustrative of challenges faced by the wider metals sector, steel mills will remain under significant pressure, as low output prices squeeze margins. This will encourage consolidation of operations and dampen output growth. We forecast that steel production will post only erratic growth in the coming years, as low prices will continue to bite.

Three firms dominate steel production in Germany. ThyssenKrupp is Germany's largest steel maker and will be implementing significant job cuts in 2014. ArcelorMittal has a further 8.0mntpa (mn tonnes per annum) capacity at sites in Bremen, Duisburg, Eisenhüttenstadt and Hamburg. Due to its proximity to Poland, the Eisenhüttenstadt steelworks exports nearly half its output to Central and Eastern Europe. The other three ArcelorMittal facilities are reliant on Western European markets for their exports. Salzgitter AG is the third largest steelmaker with plants in Salzgitter and Peine in the middle of the country. Germany also hosts Europe's largest copper refiner, Aurubis AG.

Stagnation Ahead
Germany - Crude Steel Production

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Metals SWOT
9
Industry Forecast
11
Steel: Few Gains Ahead
11
Production To Remain Under Pressure
13
Table: Germany - Crude Steel Production And Consumption, ('000 tonnes, unless stated otherwise)
14
Table: Germany - Crude Steel Production, ('000 tonnes)
14
Aluminium: Low Prices To Constrain Sector
16
Table: Germany - Primary Aluminium Production, Consumption And Balance ('000 tonnes)
19
Copper: Sector To Struggle
19
Table: Germany - Refined Copper Production, Consumption And Balance, ('000 tonnes)
21
Regulatory Development
22
Table: Political Overview
25
Commodities Forecast
27
Steel Price Forecast
27
Table: BMI Steel Forecast
27
Short-Term Outlook
27
Core View
27
Global Steel Glut To Persist
28
Production: Rationalisation In The Long Term
28
Consumption: Growth Decelerating
30
Excessive Chinese Exports
31
Growing Arbitrage Between East & West
32
Risks To Price Outlook
32
Table: Steel Data & Forecasts
33
Table: Global Steel Prices By Region & Product, US$/tonne (ave)
34
Commodity Strategy
34
Steel: Subdued Medium Term Outlook
37
Aluminium: Despite Recent Upswing, Underperformance To Persist
38
Copper: No Time To Celebrate Yet
39
Lead: Outperformance On The Cards
40
Nickel: Sideways Movement In Weeks Ahead
41
Zinc: Positive Momentum To Continue
43
Table: Select Commodities - Performance & BMI Forecasts
44
Table: BMI Commodities Strategy
45
Competitive Landscape
46
Table: Germany - Largest Listed Metals Producers
47
Company Profile
48
ThyssenKrupp AG
48
Table: ThyssenKrupp - Key Financial Data, 2007-2012
50
ArcelorMittal
52
Company Strategy
55
Latest Financial Results
56
Company Details
57
Financial Data
57
Table: ArcelorMittal - Key Financial Data
57
Methodology
58
Cross Checks
58

The Germany Metals Report has been researched at source, and features latest-available data for steel, aluminium and other major globally-traded commodities. Our analysis covers all primary indicators, including production, exports and price, with our forecasts underpinned by Business Monitor International (BMI)'s macroeconomists global economic outlook. The report analyses trends and prospects and critically evaluates latest industry news, trends and regulatory developments in Germany.

BMI's Germany Metals Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, business investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the metals industry in Germany.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent metals industry forecasts for Germany to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Germany metals market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in Germany through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major projects and investments.
  • Exploit the latest competitive intelligence and company profiles on your competitors and peers.

Coverage

Executive Summary

Summary of BMI's key forecasts and industry analysis, covering metals production and prices, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.

SWOT Analysis

SWOT (Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats) analysis of the state's metals sector, business environment, politics and economics, which carefully evaluates the short- and medium-term issues facing the industry.

Global Metals Market Overview

Global demand, supply and price forecasts for steel and aluminium, as well as gold, copper and tin, drawing on both our industry expertise and our macroeconomic and financial market team's long-term global demand forecasts and shorter-term market views.

Industry Forecasts

Historic data series and forecasts to end-2017 for all key industry indicators (see list below) supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast.

Production (`000 tonnes, US$bn), consumption (`000 tonnes, US$bn), exports (`000 tonnes, US$bn); prices (US$/tonne), and growth (%).

Macroeconomic Forecasts

BMI forecasts to end-2017 for headline country macroeconomic indicators, including real GDP growth (%), GDP per capita (US$), population (mn), industrial production index (% y-o-y average) and unemployment (% of labour force).

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc