Business Monitor International


Germany Infrastructure Report

Published 29 October 2014

  • 78 pages
  • Instant access to your report online and PDF format through your account library
  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
 
$1,295.00
Germany Infrastructure Report

BMI View:   The lack of investment in the German economy poses a major downside risk to the recovery of the construction sector. Neither the government in the form of infrastructure investment nor the private sector in real estate is investing enough to maintain growth. We expect growth to reach 2% in 2015 . While we are not forecasting a return to recession in the German construction sector, the risks of the eurozone and Ukraine crisis have weighed on confidence and will keep growth subdued over our ten-year forecast period to 2023. An upside risk in the form of government infrastructure investment to help the economy exists, although austerity will be the overriding goal.

Low levels of domestic investment remains are largest concern for the market, which will largely go towards maintaining and upgrading ageing infrastructure rather than major new projects. We highlight overall investment levels remain muted and major projects will be subject to constrained budgets and strong opposition, as experienced by Stuttgart 21. Over our ten-year forecast period to 2023, the construction industry will average real growth of 1.4%.

Key Trends And Developments

  • The 2015-2018 federal budget has been adopted by the coalition government, which will see spending on transport infrastructure reach EUR11.9bn over the time period. However, pledges to invest a total of EUR23bn after the election seem unlikely to appear as the government aims to keep a tight rein on expenditure.

  • Low interest rates have made mortgages affordable and German real estate has been viewed as a safe haven for European investors. As such, there has been significant growth in house prices, which should spur the residential sector.

  • Due to unfavourable economics, gas-fired regeneration power plants are becoming unprofitable. Also, EU legislation will hit the coal fired generation project pipeline. As such, it is the renewables sector which will drive growth in the energy and utilities sector, and...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
8
Infrastructure SWOT
8
Industry Forecast
10
Construction And Infrastructure Forecast Scenario
10
Table: Construction And Infrastructure Industry Data (Germany 2012-2017)
10
Table: Construction And Infrastructure Industry Data (Germany 2018-2023)
11
Transport Infrastructure - Outlook And Overview
15
Table: Transport Infrastructure Industry Data (Germany 2012-2017)
15
Table: Transport Infrastructure Industry Data (Germany 2018-2023)
16
Table: Major Projects - Transport Infrastructure
24
Energy And Utilities Infrastructure - Outlook And Overview
27
Table: Energy And Utilities Infrastructure Data (Germany 2012-2017)
27
Table: Energy And Utilities Infrastructure Data (Germany 2018-2023)
28
Table: Major Projects - Energy And Utilities
32
Residential/NonResidential Building - Outlook And Overview
34
Table: Residential and Non-Residential Building Industry Data (Germany 2012-2017)
34
Table: Residential and Non-Residential Building Industry Data (Germany 2018-2023)
34
Table: Major Projects - Residential/Non-Residential Construction And Social Infrastructure
38
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
39
Germany - Infrastructure Risk/Reward Ratings
39
Rewards
39
Risks
39
North America and Western Europe - Infrastructure Risk/Reward Ratings
40
Table: Infrastructure Risk/Reward Ratings
47
Market Overview
48
Competitive Landscape
48
Table: Key Infrastructure Companies
49
Company Profile
50
Hochtief
50
RWE
53
Bilfinger Berger
56
Global Industry Overview
58
Global Infrastructure Overview
58
Methodology
64
Industry Forecast Methodology
64
Sector-Specific Methodology
65
Risk/Reward Rating Methodology
69
Sector-Specific Methodology
70
Table: Infrastructure Risk/Reward Rating Indicators
70
Table: Weighting Of Indicators
71

The Germany Infrastructure Report features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s market assessment and forecasts covering public procurement and spending on all major infrastructure and construction projects, including transportation and logistics by land, sea and air; power plants and utilities, and commercial construction and property development. The report analyses the impact of regulatory changes and the macroeconomic outlook and features competitive intelligence on contractors and suppliers.

BMI's Germany Infrastructure Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the German infrastructure and construction industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent infrastructure industry forecasts for Germany to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the German infrastructure market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the German infrastructure sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Germany.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity).

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis covering infrastructure and construction, regulatory changes, major investments and projects and significant multinational and national company developments.

These are broken down into Construction (social, commercial and residential), Transport (roads, railways, ports, airports etc), and Energy & Utilities (powerplants, renewable projects, pipelines and so on).

Industry Trends

Analysis of latest projects across the infrastructure sector (covering the transport, utilities and commercial construction sub-sectors) - including:

Market Overview:Analysis of the key elements driving developments, including evaluations of current capacity and future requirements.

Building Materials Overview

The building materials overview provides industry trend analysis on the global and regional demands for building materials and the impact of this on the emerging and developed markets.

Business Environment Rankings

BMI's Infrastructure Business Environment Rankings provide a country-comparative Risk-Reward Rankings index aimed at investors (construction companies, suppliers and partners) in the regional infrastructure market.

The rankings methodology makes sophisticated use of over 40 industry, economic and demographic data point.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the infrastructure and construction sectors and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI Industry & Economic Forecasts

Historic data series (2008-2012) and forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry and economic indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key risks to the main forecast. Indicators include:

Construction: Industry value (US$bn); contribution to GDP (%); employment (`000); real growth (%).

Infrastructure: Value (US$bn); contribution to construction industry (%); real growth (%) of transport infrastructure (broken down by railways, airports, roads and bridges, ports and harbours) and energy and utilities (broken down by power plants and transmission grids, oil and gas pipelines, and water infrastructure).

Economy: Economic growth (%); nominal GDP (US$bn); unemployment (%); interest rates (%); exchange rate (against US$).

Company Profiles

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc