Business Monitor International


Germany Freight Transport Report

Published 19 November 2014

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Germany Freight Transport Report

Following a year in which  we saw increasing volumes across the whole of Germany's freight transport sector, BMI believes 2015 will see further growth. 

Total trade is projected to pick up with our Country Risk team forecasting a y-o-y increase of 1.35% in 2015, following an estimated growth at the same rate in 2014. 

Road freight is set to continue to dominate the sector and is projected to grow by 2% in 2015. The sector was unable to defy the downturn losing more than 11% of freight volumes over 2009 and 2010 before a strong recovery begun in 2011.

Port of Hamburg tonnage is also expected to grow, having completed, according to our estimates, a full recovery to its pre-downturn levels in 2014. 

Headline Industry Data

  • 2015 Air freight tonnage is expected to grow by 1.5%

  • 2015 Rail freight is forecast to grow by 1.2%

  • 2015 Port of Hamburg throughput is forecast to grow by 4%

  • 2012 Port of Hamburg container throughput is forecast to grow by 4.9%

  • 2015 Road freight is forecast to grow by 2.2%

  • 2015 Inland waterway freight is forecast to grow by 1.9%

  • 2015 Total real trade growth is forecast at 1.4%.

Key Industry Trends  

DB Schenker's Europe-China Rail Service Benefits Europe's Manufacturers:  The new weekly rail freighter service between Hamburg and Zhengzhou is a major benefit for European supply chains as it opens up new modal options on the Europe to China route and reduces transit times compared to shipping goods by sea. This route particularly benefits the European manufacturing and transport sectors, which together account for the largest portion of goods traded with China. 

US A nd EU Approve Hapag-Lloyd-CSAV Merger:   Hapag-Lloyd welcomed in September 2014, the European Union's approval for its planned integration of the container shipping activities of CSAV into Hapag-Lloyd. In August both companies received approval from the US Department of Justice and the Federal Trade Commission for a merger. Approvals in 'a few other...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
5
SWOT Analysis
8
Germany Freight Transport Industry SWOT
8
Germany Political SWOT
8
Germany Economic SWOT
9
Germany Business Environment SWOT
9
Industry Trends And Developments
10
Road
10
Rail
10
Maritime
12
Air
13
Intermodal And Logistics
15
Market Overview
16
Road And Rail
18
Inland Waterways
19
Air
19
Maritime
19
Intermodal
20
Infrastructure
20
Industry Forecast
22
Air Freight
22
Table: Air Freight, 2010-2017
22
Maritime Freight
22
Table: Maritime Freight, 2010-2017
23
Rail Freight
23
Table: Rail Freight, 2010-2017
24
Road Freight
24
Table: Road Freight, 2010-2017
24
Inland Waterway Freight
24
Table: Inland Waterway Freight, 2010-2017
25
Trade
25
Table: Trade Overview, 2010-2017
25
Table: Key Trade Indicators, 2010-2017
26
Table: Main Import Partners (US$mn), 2002-2009
27
Table: Main Export Partners (US$mn), 2002-2009
27
Global Oil Products Price Outlook
28
Table: BMI's Refined Products Forecasts , 2010-2016
29
Table: Middle East Outperforms In Terms of Passenger Growth
33
Political Outlook
38
Domestic Politics
38
Long-Term Political Outlook
39
Macroeconomic Outlook
43
Table: Germany - GDP By Expenditure, Real Growth %, 2008-2016
45
Company Profiles
46
Lufthansa Cargo
46
DB Schenker Rail
49
Hamburg S-d
52
Country Snapshot
54
Table: Germany's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
55
Table: Germany's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
56
Table: Germany's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
57
Table: Germany's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
57
BMI Methodology
58
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
58
Transport Industry
58
Sources
59

The Germany Freight Transport Report has been researched at source, and features latest-available data covering commercial transport and logistics by road, rail, air and water; industry forecasts, company rankings covering leading national and multinational operators; and analysis of latest industry trends, opportunities, projects and regulatory changes.

Business Monitor International (BMI)'s Germany Freight Transport Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the German freight transport and logistics industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent freight transport industry forecasts on Germany to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the strategic freight transport market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the German freight transport sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Germany.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs, and latest activity).

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis covering freight transport and logistics, regulatory changes, major investments and projects and significant national and multinational company developments.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the freight sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

Industry Trends And Developments

Analysis of latest projects across the freight transport sector (road, rail, air, sea and logistics) including market overview which provides an outline of the key elements driving development.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry and macroeconomic indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:

Transport Sector: Sector Value (US$bn); sector real growth (%); employment (`000); total freight carried by road, rail, inland waterways, maritime, air and pipeline (mn tonnes-km/mn tonnes)

Trade: Exports and imports (US$mn) by category of goods (manufactured goods, food, chemicals etc.); top-5 import and export trade partners (US$mn); imports/exports to each global region (US$mn)

Port Data: Throughput (`000 tonnes) and container throughput (TEU) for all major ports in the state

Oil Products Prices: Price forecasts for gasoline and aviation fuel (US$/bbl) at all major global energy trading hubs

Economic Indicators: Nominal GDP (US$bn); real GDP growth (%); GDP per capita (US$); industrial production (%); unemployment (%)

Market Overview

Details of the freight infrastructure in each state by segment (road, rail, air, water and pipelines). Full analysis of the competitive landscape within each segment.

Political Outlook

The freight reports contain a chapter detailing the political outlook of a given region, examining the domestic politics, long-term outlook and foreign policy, and assessing the impact this could have on freight and transport businesses.

Company Profiles

Examines the short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT (Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats) analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc