In 2013, vehicle sales in Germany declined 4% on the back of a 4.2% drop in the passenger car segment and a 2.2% fall in the commercial vehicle (CV) segment. In 2014, we expect to see a return to growth in the industry, with total vehicle sales forecasted to increase 1% over the year. This comes from an expected 0.6% increase in passenger car sales and a 5.3% increase in the CV segment.
The German passenger car market remains below its 2009 peak of some 3.8mn units, following the general decline in sales volumes in recent years. These delayed purchasing decisions have created some pent-up demand in the market. This, combined with the steadily improving consumer dynamics, has informed our forecast for a 0.6% increase in passenger car sales in 2014.
In 2013, vehicle production in Germany increased 1.2% on the back of a 1.1% increase in the passenger car segment and 2.3% raise in CV output. In 2014, we forecast a 2.2% increase as passenger car output is expected to increase 2% and CV output increase 4.3%.
Over the course of 2013, exports constituted some 75% of German passenger car output, and the majority of the country's exports are destined for Europe. In 2013, sales in the region contracted, although the rate of decline moderated over the year and some markets have returned to positive territory on the back of pent-up demand. This is in line with BMI's long-held view.
The Germany Autos Report features the latest data and forecasts covering production, sales, imports and exports.
Business Monitor International (BMI)'s Germany Autos Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, auto associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the automotives market in Germany.
- Benchmark BMI's independent automotives industry forecasts on Germany to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the German automotives market.
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BMI Industry View
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Historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:
Total production value (US$bn); total production of units; production by vehicle-type (including cars, commercial vehicles, trucks and buses); total sales value (US$bn); sales by vehicle-type, including passenger cars and commercial vehicles (vans and microbuses, pickups, trucks and buses, 4 wheel drive); total exports by value (US$bn) and by units; total imports by value (US$bn) and by units; contribution to GDP; employment in industry.
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