Business Monitor International


Germany Autos Report

Published 18 February 2014

  • 61 pages
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$1,295.00
Germany Autos Report

In 2013, vehicle sales in Germany declined 4% on the back of a 4.2% drop in the passenger car segment and a 2.2% fall in the commercial vehicle (CV) segment. In 2014, we expect to see a return to growth in the industry, with total vehicle sales forecasted to increase 1% over the year. This comes from an expected 0.6% increase in passenger car sales and a 5.3% increase in the CV segment.

The German passenger car market remains below its 2009 peak of some 3.8mn units, following the general decline in sales volumes in recent years. These delayed purchasing decisions have created some pent-up demand in the market. This, combined with the steadily improving consumer dynamics, has informed our forecast for a 0.6% increase in passenger car sales in 2014.

In 2013, vehicle production in Germany increased 1.2% on the back of a 1.1% increase in the passenger car segment and 2.3% raise in CV output. In 2014, we forecast a 2.2% increase as passenger car output is expected to increase 2% and CV output increase 4.3%.

Over the course of 2013, exports constituted some 75% of German passenger car output, and the majority of the country's exports are destined for Europe. In 2013, sales in the region contracted, although the rate of decline moderated over the year and some markets have returned to positive territory on the back of pent-up demand. This is in line with BMI's long-held view.

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
8
Political
10
Economic
11
Business Environment
12
Industry Forecast
13
Production, Sales And Trade
13
Sales
13
Table: Germany - Autos Sales
13
Production
15
Table: Germany - Autos Production
15
Trade
16
Table: Germany - Autos Trade
16
Passenger Vehicles
17
Table: Germany - Passenger Car Segment
17
Sector Developments
19
Commercial Vehicles
23
Table: Germany - Commercial Vehicle Segment
23
New Investments
26
Motorcycles
27
Table: Germany - Motorcycle Segment
27
Suppliers
28
Macroeconomic Forecasts
30
Table: Germany - Economic Activity
36
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
37
Table: Europe Risk Rewards Rating
40
Company Profile
42
Global Company Strategy
42
Regional Overview
45
Global Industry Overview
47
Table: Passenger Car Sales November 2013 (CBUs)
47
Europe On Road To Recovery
47
Tax Hike Skews Japan's Outlook; US Hits Sweet 16
49
China Is BRIC Bright Spot
51
Demographic Forecast
54
Demographic Outlook
54
Table: Germany's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
55
Table: Germany's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
56
Table: Germany's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
57
Table: Germany's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
57
Methodology
58
Industry Forecasts
58
Sector-Specific Methodology
59
Sources
59
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
60
Table: Automotive Risk/Reward Ratings Indicators And Weighting Of Indicators
61

The Germany Autos Report features the latest data and forecasts covering production, sales, imports and exports.

Business Monitor International (BMI)'s Germany Autos Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, auto associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the automotives market in Germany.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent automotives industry forecasts on Germany to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the German automotives market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the German automotives sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Germany.
  • Assess the activities and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Competitive Landscape Analysis.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts and views, covering production, sales and the introduction of new technology or products.

Global, Regional and Country Industry Overviews

In-depth analysis of the major global and regional developments in the market, which can be linked with the country industry overview, providing cross-country investment, product and financing trends that will affect each market, supported by BMI’s global and regional industry forecasts.

Business Environment Ratings

BMI's proprietary Autos Business Environment Ratings are a unique country-comparative Risk-Reward Ratings index that separately analyses the risks and rewards of operating in each market. It is aimed at investors (including manufacturers, suppliers and dealers) who seek to either identify and compare market opportunities, or evaluate country-specific operational challenges.

The ratings methodology makes sophisticated use of over 40 industries, economic and demographic data points.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:

Total production value (US$bn); total production of units; production by vehicle-type (including cars, commercial vehicles, trucks and buses); total sales value (US$bn); sales by vehicle-type, including passenger cars and commercial vehicles (vans and microbuses, pickups, trucks and buses, 4 wheel drive); total exports by value (US$bn) and by units; total imports by value (US$bn) and by units; contribution to GDP; employment in industry.

BMI Economic Forecasts

BMI forecasts to end-2018 for all headline macroeconomic indicators, including real GDP growth, inflation, fiscal balance, trade balance, current account and external debt.

Company Profiles

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc