Business Monitor International


Germany Agribusiness Report

Published 16 July 2014

  • 118 pages
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  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
 
$1,295.00
Germany Agribusiness Report

BMI View:   Sugar production fell steeply in 2013/14 and the financial and legal setbacks suffered by major firms suggest that Germany's sugar industry will not enjoy a smooth transition into the post-quota age. Dairy producers are expected to fare better after the removal of supply quotas in 2015 as Europe's number one milk producer is already succeeding in capturing new export markets. Processed dairy products will also perform well over the forecast period and here too we see potential for further growth with deregulation. For meat production we see a more complex outlook with poultry output and consumption forecast to grow substantially, but weak growth expected for pork and beef. We expect strong wheat and corn harvests on the back of favourable weather, with barley falling back slightly in line with longer term trends.

Milk Recovers Stability
Germany - BMI Agribusiness Market Value By Commodity (As % of total)

Key Forecasts

  • Milk production growth to 2018: 5.8% to 31.9mn tonnes. Modest growth will be supported by export demand and higher prices and held back by sluggish domestic consumption and the demise of smaller producers.

  • Pork consumption growth to 2018: down 1.2% to 4.4mn tonnes. Demand for pork has been on a downward trajectory since 2007 and we see no let up in this trend as consumers turn to healthier options.

  • Wheat production growth to 2017/18: 14.4% to 25.6mn tonnes. Wheat will gain some ground at the expense of other grains and sugar beet.

  • 2014 real GDP growth:  1.9%; up from 0.4% in 2013 and forecast to average 1.5% from 2014 until 2018.

  • Consumer price inflation:  1.7% year-on-year (y-o-y) in 2014, up from 1.6% in 2013.

  • BMI Universe Agribusiness Market Value to shrink by 2.8% to USD34.4bn in 2014. Expected to grow by 1.2% to USD35.8bn from 2013 to 2018.

Industry Developments

A new law aimed at reducing levels of antibiotic use in animal husbandry came into force in April 2014. Livestock owners will now be...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Agribusiness
9
Business Environment
11
Industry Forecast
12
Grains Outlook
12
Table: Wheat Production & Consumption (Germany 2013-2018)
13
Table: Corn Production & Consumption (Germany 2013-2018)
14
Table: Barley Production & Consumption (Germany 2013-2018)
14
Table: Wheat Production & Consumption (Germany 2008-2013)
19
Table: Corn Production & Consumption (Germany 2008-2013)
19
Table: Barley Production & Consumption (Germany 2008-2013)
19
Livestock Outlook
21
Table: Poultry Production & Consumption (Germany 2013-2018)
22
Table: Pork Production & Consumption (Germany 2013-2018)
22
Table: Beef Production & Consumption (Germany 2013-2018)
22
Table: New Payment Schemes Under CAP Reforms
26
Table: Poultry Production & Consumption (Germany 2008-2013)
27
Table: Pork Production & Consumption (Germany 2008-2013)
27
Table: Beef Production & Consumption (Germany 2008-2013)
27
Dairy Outlook
29
Table: Milk Production & Consumption (Germany 2013-2018)
30
Table: Butter Production & Consumption (Germany 2013-2018)
30
Table: Cheese Production & Consumption (Germany 2013-2018)
31
Table: Milk Production & Consumption (Germany 2008-2013)
34
Table: Butter Production & Consumption (Germany 2008-2013)
35
Table: Cheese Production & Consumption (Germany 2008-2013)
35
Sugar Outlook
36
Table: Sugar Production & Consumption (Germany 2013-2018)
37
Table: Sugar Production & Consumption (Germany 2008-2013)
40
Commodities Price Analysis
41
Monthly Grains Update
41
Table: Selected Commodities - Performance & Forecasts
50
Monthly Softs Update
51
Table: Select Commodities - Performance & BMI Forecasts
60
Upstream Analysis
61
Europe Machinery Outlook
61
Table: Deere & Company - Agriculture & Turf Sales Growth Forecasts By Region
65
Europe GM Outlook
67
Europe Fertiliser Outlook
74
Downstream Analysis
81
Food
81
Food Production
81
Organics
81
Dairy
82
Drink
83
Soft Drinks
83
Alcoholic Drinks
84
Mass Grocery Retail
85
Table: Structure Of Mass Grocery Retail Market By Estimated Number of Outlets (Germany 2005-2014)
86
Table: Mass Grocery Retail Sales By Format (US$bn) (Germany 2005-2014)
86
Table: Mass Grocery Retail Sales By Format (loccurbn) (Germany 2005-2014)
87
Regional Overview
88
Competitive Landscape
94
Table: Germany - Key Agribusiness Players
94
Demographic Forecast
95
Table: Germany's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
96
Table: Germany's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
97
Table: Germany's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
98
Table: Germany's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
98
Methodology
99
Industry Forecast Methodology
99
Sector-Specific Methodology
100

The Germany Agribusiness Report features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s market assessment and independent forecasts for production, consumption and trade across core agricultural commodities.

BMI's Germany Agribusiness Report includes independent commodity price forecasting and analysis for key agricultural outputs, an overview of the agribusiness competitive landscape and a discussion of the downstream context of agricultural production in relation to country food consumption forecasts and composite food and beverage trade forecasts.

Key Benefits

  • Use BMI's independent industry forecasts to test other views - a key input for successful planning in dynamic agribusiness markets.
  • Apply BMI's medium-term commodity price analysis to assist with budgetary planning and the identification of investment opportunities and potential risks.
  • Assess the activities and market position of your competitors, partners and clients.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

An analytical summary of BMI's latest key industry forecasts and views, highlighting recent changes and key risks to the industry outlook for agribusiness in Germany.

Industry SWOT Analysis

At-a-glance perspectives on the Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats facing the agricultural industry.

BMI Supply & Demand Forecasts

Divided into sections based on various diverse sectors in the agriculture market, the chapter provides insight into each market's agricultural industry, centred on sector forecasts to end-2018 for the consumption, production and trade of key agricultural commodities.

Consumption forecasts are accompanied by a discussion of the main drivers of consumption growth: macroeconomic factors, food processing trends, price movements and, increasingly, demand from the non-food sector.

Production forecasts examine the trends influencing BMI's production outlook: global demand, price increases, public and private sector investment and agricultural efficiency improvements.

Trade forecasts are accompanied by a discussion of the factors influencing a country's trade in agricultural goods, including domestic demand, global prices and government trade policies.

BMI's forecasts are accompanied by a Risks- to-Outlook assessment, which examines potential factors that could affect our existing forecast picture and the likelihood of their occurrence.

BMI's Commodity Price Analysis

Fundamental and technical analysis of the short- and medium-term price outlook for key agricultural commodities, based on globally-recognised benchmarks.

Downstream Analysis

Analysis of headline food and drink forecasts, including total food consumption, per capita food consumption and total sector trade, which provide important downstream intelligence for primary agricultural producers.

Featured Analysis

Includes relevant articles from BMI's daily analysis service. These can include long-term projections on agricultural imports and exports, our perceptions of the impacts of economic slowdown on key companies and subsectors within the Agribusiness industry in a given country, our analysis of fertilizer production as well as other relevant analysis of recent news and events on Store and Landing Pages.

Methodology & Sourcing

The Germany Agribusiness Report is based on an extensive network of multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc