Business Monitor International


Germany Agribusiness Report

Published 25 March 2014

  • 118 pages
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  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
 
$1,295.00
Germany Agribusiness Report

BMI View: Pork producers will face rising costs due to the staggered implementation of minimum wage legislation beginning later this year, while beef production is expected to show weak growth as dairy herds recover. Dairy farmers are still faced with a difficult climate, with many smaller producers expected to be faced with a choice of ceasing operations or joining cooperatives after the removal of quotas in 2015. Even for the big players, milk prices remain perilously low, and it is only the strength of exports that provides a silver lining. Wheat prices are expected to lead farmers to favour increasing acreage of the crop at the expense of corn, barley and sugar.

Milk Recovers Stability
Germany - BMI Agribusiness Market Value By Commodity (As % of total)

Key Forecasts

  • Milk production growth to 2018: 5.8% to 31.9mn tonnes. Modest growth will be supported by export demand and higher prices and held back by sluggish domestic consumption and the demise of smaller producers.

  • Pork consumption growth to 2018: down 1.2% to 4.3mn tonnes. Demand for pork has been on a downward trajectory since 2007 and we see no let up in this trend as consumers turn to healthier options.

  • Wheat production growth to 2017/18: 15.2% to 25.8mn tonnes. Wheat will gain some ground at the expense of other grains and sugar beet.

  • 2014 real GDP growth: 1.9%; up from 0.4% in 2013 and forecast to average 1.5% from 2014 until 2018.

  • Consumer price inflation: 1.7% y-o-y in 2014, up from 1.6% in 2013.

  • BMI Universe Agribusiness Market Value to shrink by 2.9% to US$34.1bn in 2014. Expected to grow by 7.1% to US$37.6bn from 2013 to 2018.

Industry Developments

The controversial low-wage employment policies of German meat producers have been one of the first casualties of the Grand Coalition formed between the CDU and SPD in October. The SPD made their entry into the agreement conditional upon the introduction of a minimum wage, and under pressure from the unions the meat industry...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Agribusiness
9
Business Environment
11
Industry Forecast
12
Grains Outlook
12
Table: Germany Wheat Production & Consumption, 2013-2018
13
Table: Germany Corn Production & Consumption, 2013-2018
13
Table: Germany Barley Production & Consumption, 2013-2018
14
Table: Germany Wheat Production & Consumption, 2008-2013
18
Table: Germany Corn Production & Consumption, 2008-2013
18
Table: Germany Barley Production & Consumption, 2008-2013
19
Livestock Outlook
20
Table: Germany Poultry Production & Consumption, 2013-2018
21
Table: Germany Pork Production & Consumption, 2013-2018
21
Table: Germany Beef & Veal Production & Consumption, 2013-2018
21
Table: New Payment Schemes Under CAP Reforms
25
Table: Germany Poultry Production & Consumption, 2008-2013
25
Table: Germany Pork Production & Consumption, 2008-2013
26
Table: Germany Beef & Veal Production & Consumption, 2008-2013
26
Dairy Outlook
27
Table: Germany Milk Production & Consumption, 2013-2018
28
Table: Germany Butter Production & Consumption, 2013-2018
28
Table: Germany Cheese Production & Consumption, 2013-2018
28
Table: Germany Milk Production & Consumption, 2008-2013
32
Table: Germany Butter Production & Consumption, 2008-2013
32
Table: Germany Cheese Production & Consumption, 2008-2013
33
Sugar Outlook
34
Table: Germany Sugar Production & Consumption, 2013-2018
35
Table: Germany Sugar Production & Consumption, 2008-2013
37
Commodities Price Analysis
39
Monthly Softs Update
39
Table: Select Commodities - Performance & BMI Forecasts
46
Table: BMI Commodities Strategy
47
Monthly Grains Update
48
Table: Select Commodities - Performance & Forecasts
56
Table: BMI Commodities Strategy
57
Upstream Analysis
58
Europe GM Outlook
58
Europe Machinery Outlook
64
Table: Deere & Company - Agriculture & Turf Sales Growth Forecasts By Region
69
Europe Fertiliser Outlook
70
Downstream Analysis
77
Drink
77
Soft Drinks And Bottled Water
77
Table: Soft Drink Value/Volume Sales, 2011-2018
78
Alcoholic Drinks
79
Table: Alcoholic Drinks Value/Volume Sales, 2011-2018
80
Hot Drinks
81
Table: Hot Drinks Value Sales, 2011-2018
82
Mass Grocery Retail
82
Table: MGR Sales By Format, 2011-2018
83
Food
84
Food Consumption
84
Table: Food Consumption Indicators, 2011-2018
85
Confectionery
85
Table: Confectionery Value/Volume Sales, 2011-2018
86
Frozen Fruit & Vegetables
87
Table: Frozen Fruit/Vegetables Volume Sales, Production & Trade, 2011-2018
88
Snack Foods
89
Table: Snack Foods Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018
90
Pasta
93
Table: Pasta Volume Sales, Production & Trade, 2011-2018
93
Dairy
95
Table: Dairy Products Volume Sales, Production & Trade, 2011-2018
96
Meat
101
Table: Meat Volume Sales, Production & Trade, 2011-2018
102
Fish
103
Table: Fish Volume Sales, Production & Trade, 2011-2018
104
Oils & Fats
106
Table: Oils & Fats Volume Sales, Production & Trade, 2011-2018
106
Regional Overview
111
Table: EU Farm Size Statistics In 2007
115
Competitive Landscape
117
Table: Germany - Key Agribusiness Players
117
Demographic Forecast
118
Table: Germany's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
119
Table: Germany's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
120
Table: Germany's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
121
Table: Germany's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
121
Methodology
122
Industry Forecast Methodology
122
Sector-Specific Methodology
123

The Germany Agribusiness Report features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s market assessment and independent forecasts for production, consumption and trade across core agricultural commodities.

BMI's Germany Agribusiness Report includes independent commodity price forecasting and analysis for key agricultural outputs, an overview of the agribusiness competitive landscape and a discussion of the downstream context of agricultural production in relation to country food consumption forecasts and composite food and beverage trade forecasts.

Key Benefits

  • Use BMI's independent industry forecasts to test other views - a key input for successful planning in dynamic agribusiness markets.
  • Apply BMI's medium-term commodity price analysis to assist with budgetary planning and the identification of investment opportunities and potential risks.
  • Assess the activities and market position of your competitors, partners and clients.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

An analytical summary of BMI's latest key industry forecasts and views, highlighting recent changes and key risks to the industry outlook for agribusiness in Germany.

Industry SWOT Analysis

At-a-glance perspectives on the Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats facing the agricultural industry.

BMI Supply & Demand Forecasts

Divided into sections based on various diverse sectors in the agriculture market, the chapter provides insight into each market's agricultural industry, centred on sector forecasts to end-2018 for the consumption, production and trade of key agricultural commodities.

Consumption forecasts are accompanied by a discussion of the main drivers of consumption growth: macroeconomic factors, food processing trends, price movements and, increasingly, demand from the non-food sector.

Production forecasts examine the trends influencing BMI's production outlook: global demand, price increases, public and private sector investment and agricultural efficiency improvements.

Trade forecasts are accompanied by a discussion of the factors influencing a country's trade in agricultural goods, including domestic demand, global prices and government trade policies.

BMI's forecasts are accompanied by a Risks- to-Outlook assessment, which examines potential factors that could affect our existing forecast picture and the likelihood of their occurrence.

BMI's Commodity Price Analysis

Fundamental and technical analysis of the short- and medium-term price outlook for key agricultural commodities, based on globally-recognised benchmarks.

Downstream Analysis

Analysis of headline food and drink forecasts, including total food consumption, per capita food consumption and total sector trade, which provide important downstream intelligence for primary agricultural producers.

Featured Analysis

Includes relevant articles from BMI's daily analysis service. These can include long-term projections on agricultural imports and exports, our perceptions of the impacts of economic slowdown on key companies and subsectors within the Agribusiness industry in a given country, our analysis of fertilizer production as well as other relevant analysis of recent news and events on Store and Landing Pages.

Methodology & Sourcing

The Germany Agribusiness Report is based on an extensive network of multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc