Business Monitor International


Germany Agribusiness Report

Published 25 March 2014

  • 118 pages
  • Instant access to your report online and PDF format through your account library
  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
 
$1,295.00
Germany Agribusiness Report

BMI View:   Sugar production fell steeply in 2013/14 and the financial and legal setbacks suffered by major firms suggest that Germany's sugar industry will not enjoy a smooth transition into the post-quota age. Dairy producers are expected to fare better after the removal of supply quotas in 2015 as Europe's number one milk producer is already succeeding in capturing new export markets. Processed dairy products will also perform well over the forecast period and here too we see potential for further growth with deregulation. For meat production we see a more complex outlook with poultry output and consumption forecast to grow substantially, but weak growth expected for pork and beef. We expect strong wheat and corn harvests on the back of favourable weather, with barley falling back slightly in line with longer term trends.

Milk Recovers Stability
Germany - BMI Agribusiness Market Value By Commodity (As % of total)

Key Forecasts

  • Milk production growth to 2018: 5.8% to 31.9mn tonnes. Modest growth will be supported by export demand and higher prices and held back by sluggish domestic consumption and the demise of smaller producers.

  • Pork consumption growth to 2018: down 1.2% to 4.4mn tonnes. Demand for pork has been on a downward trajectory since 2007 and we see no let up in this trend as consumers turn to healthier options.

  • Wheat production growth to 2017/18: 14.4% to 25.6mn tonnes. Wheat will gain some ground at the expense of other grains and sugar beet.

  • 2014 real GDP growth:  1.9%; up from 0.4% in 2013 and forecast to average 1.5% from 2014 until 2018.

  • Consumer price inflation:  1.7% year-on-year (y-o-y) in 2014, up from 1.6% in 2013.

  • BMI Universe Agribusiness Market Value to shrink by 2.8% to USD34.4bn in 2014. Expected to grow by 1.2% to USD35.8bn from 2013 to 2018.

Industry Developments

A new law aimed at reducing levels of antibiotic use in animal husbandry came into force in April 2014. Livestock owners will now be...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
5
SWOT Analysis
7
Agribusiness SWOT
7
Business Environment SWOT
8
Industry Forecast
9
Grains Outlook
9
Table: Germany Wheat Production & Consumption, 2012-2017
10
Table: Germany Corn Production & Consumption, 2012-2017
10
Table: Germany Barley Production & Consumption, 2012-2017
11
Table: Germany Wheat Production & Consumption, 2007-2012
22
Table: Germany Corn Production & Consumption, 2007-2012
23
Table: Germany Barley Production & Consumption, 2007-2012
23
Livestock Outlook
24
Table: Germany Poultry Production & Consumption, 2012-2017
25
Table: Germany Pork Production & Consumption, 2012-2017
25
Table: Germany Beef & Veal Production & Consumption, 2012-2017
26
Table: Countries, Retailers Affected By Horsemeat Scandal
27
Table: New Payment Schemes Under CAP Reforms
30
Table: Germany Poultry Production & Consumption, 2007-2012
35
Table: Germany Pork Production & Consumption, 2007-2012
35
Table: Germany Beef & Veal Production & Consumption, 2007-2012
35
Dairy Outlook
37
Table: Germany Milk Production & Consumption, 2012-2017
38
Table: Germany Butter Production & Consumption, 2012-2017
38
Table: Germany Cheese Production & Consumption, 2012-2017
38
Table: Germany Milk Production & Consumption, 2007-2012
45
Table: Germany Butter Production & Consumption, 2007-2012
45
Table: Germany Cheese Production & Consumption, 2007-2012
45
Sugar Outlook
46
Table: Germany Sugar Production & Consumption, 2012-2017
47
Table: Germany Sugar Production & Consumption, 2007-2012
49
Commodities Price Analysis
50
Monthly Softs Strategy
50
Table: Select Agricultural Commodities - Performance & BMI Forecasts
58
Table: BMI Commodity Strategy
59
Monthly Grains Strategy
60
Table: Select Agricultural Commodities - Performance & BMI Forecasts
68
Table: BMI Commodity Strategy
69
Upstream Analysis
70
Europe GM Outlook
70
Europe Fertiliser Outlook
74
Europe Machinery Outlook
79
Downstream Analysis
83
Food
83
Food Consumption
83
Table: Food Consumption Indicators - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017
84
Confectionery
85
Table: Confectionery Value/Volume Sales - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017
85
Prepared Food
86
Table: Frozen Fruit/Vegetables Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017
86
Table: Snack Foods Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017
88
Table: Pasta Volume Sales, Production & Trade, Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017
92
Dairy
94
Table: Dairy Products Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017
94
Meat
101
Table: Meat Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017
101
Fish
103
Table: Fish Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017
103
Oils & Fats
106
Table: Oils & Fats Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017
106
Drink
110
Soft Drinks And Bottled Water
110
Table: Soft Drinks Value/Volume Sales - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017
110
Alcoholic Drinks
111
Table: Alcoholic Drinks Value/Volume Sales - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017
112
Hot Drinks
113
Table: Hot Drinks Value Sales - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017
114
Mass Grocery Retail
114
Table: Mass Grocery Retail Sales By Format - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017
115
Competitive Landscape
116
Table: Main Agribusiness Players
116
Demographic Forecast
117
Table: Germany's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
118
Table: Germany's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
119
Table: Germany's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
120
Table: Germany's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
120
Methodology
121
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
121

The Germany Agribusiness Report features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s market assessment and independent forecasts for production, consumption and trade across core agricultural commodities.

BMI's Germany Agribusiness Report includes independent commodity price forecasting and analysis for key agricultural outputs, an overview of the agribusiness competitive landscape and a discussion of the downstream context of agricultural production in relation to country food consumption forecasts and composite food and beverage trade forecasts.

Key Benefits

  • Use BMI's independent industry forecasts to test other views - a key input for successful planning in dynamic agribusiness markets.
  • Apply BMI's medium-term commodity price analysis to assist with budgetary planning and the identification of investment opportunities and potential risks.
  • Assess the activities and market position of your competitors, partners and clients.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

An analytical summary of BMI's latest key industry forecasts and views, highlighting recent changes and key risks to the industry outlook for agribusiness in Germany.

Industry SWOT Analysis

At-a-glance perspectives on the Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats facing the agricultural industry.

BMI Supply & Demand Forecasts

Divided into sections based on various diverse sectors in the agriculture market, the chapter provides insight into each market's agricultural industry, centred on sector forecasts to end-2018 for the consumption, production and trade of key agricultural commodities.

Consumption forecasts are accompanied by a discussion of the main drivers of consumption growth: macroeconomic factors, food processing trends, price movements and, increasingly, demand from the non-food sector.

Production forecasts examine the trends influencing BMI's production outlook: global demand, price increases, public and private sector investment and agricultural efficiency improvements.

Trade forecasts are accompanied by a discussion of the factors influencing a country's trade in agricultural goods, including domestic demand, global prices and government trade policies.

BMI's forecasts are accompanied by a Risks- to-Outlook assessment, which examines potential factors that could affect our existing forecast picture and the likelihood of their occurrence.

BMI's Commodity Price Analysis

Fundamental and technical analysis of the short- and medium-term price outlook for key agricultural commodities, based on globally-recognised benchmarks.

Downstream Analysis

Analysis of headline food and drink forecasts, including total food consumption, per capita food consumption and total sector trade, which provide important downstream intelligence for primary agricultural producers.

Featured Analysis

Includes relevant articles from BMI's daily analysis service. These can include long-term projections on agricultural imports and exports, our perceptions of the impacts of economic slowdown on key companies and subsectors within the Agribusiness industry in a given country, our analysis of fertilizer production as well as other relevant analysis of recent news and events on Store and Landing Pages.

Methodology & Sourcing

The Germany Agribusiness Report is based on an extensive network of multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc