Business Monitor International


Gabon Oil & Gas Report

Published 17 April 2014

  • 95 pages
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  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
 
$1,295.00
Gabon Oil & Gas Report

BMI View:   Recent years has seen an explosion of interest in the highly prospective West African Transform Margin. However, an uptick in exploration offshore Gabon has yielded mixed results, and this quarter a three-well deepwater drilling campaign by Ophir ended dry. Gabon's new hydrocarbons law has also materially worsened both the country's fiscal and licensing terms, and introduced a high degree of regulatory uncertainty. Unless the law is amended, we see Gabon lose investment to other, more attractive West African countries.

The main trends and developments we highlight for Gabon's oil and gas sector are as follows:

  • While we expect some near-term gains in oil production, the longer-term trend for Gabon's oil sector is one of decline, due to both natural depletion at maturing fields and limited new production coming on stream.

  • Although Gabon's deepwater potential offers significant upside risk to our view, a string of disappointing drilling results may dampen interest in expensive exploration campaigns. In addition, the country's new hydrocarbons law has materially worsened fiscal and regulatory terms for international oil and gas companies. Given the abundance of opportunities in the West African upstream, we believe Gabon risks driving investors to other, more attractive frontier players.

  • We forecast gas production rising from 0.07bcm in 2013 to 0.4bcm by 2018. Although exploration poses some upside to this view, the absence of a clear investment plan to capture and monetise gas precludes any larger increase in our forecasts. Harnessing gas will require infrastructure which the country lacks, and we question the commerciality of the country's offshore gas resources.

  • Gabon's oil and gas infrastructure is critically limited. The only significant downstream oil asset is the 24,000b/d SOGARA refinery, built in 1967. The SOGARA refinery is inefficient, underutilised and set to close in 2016. In 2012 Gabon signed a memorandum of understanding with...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Industry Forecast
11
Oil And Gas Reserves
11
Table: Gabon Proven Oil And Gas Reserves And Total Petroleum Data 2011-2016
11
Table: Gabon Proven Oil And Gas Reserves And Total Petroleum Data, 2017-2022
12
Table: Gabon Oil Production, Consumption and Net Exports Data 2011-2016
14
Table: Gabon Oil Production, Consumption And Net Exports Data, 2017-2022
15
Gas Supply And Demand
20
Table: Gabon Gas Production, Consumption And Net Exports Data, 2011-2016
20
Table: Gabon Oil Production, Consumption And Net Exports Data, 2017-2022
20
Refining And Oil Products Trade
23
Table: Gabon Refining - Production And Consumption Data, 2011-2016
23
Table: Gabon Refining - Production And Consumption Data, 2017-2022
24
Revenues/Import Costs
25
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
26
Gabon - Risk/Reward Ratings
26
Gabon Upstream
26
Gabon Downstream
26
Africa - Risk/Reward Ratings
27
Table: Africa Oil and Gas Risk/Reward Ratings, Scores out of 100
28
Table: Africa Upstream R/R Ratings, Scores out of 100
29
Table: Downstream Risk/Reward Ratings, Scores out of 100
32
Table: Proposed And Planned Refineries In Africa
33
Market Overview
35
Gabon Energy Market Overview
35
Overview/State Role
38
Licensing And Regulation
39
Government Policy
39
Licensing Rounds
40
Table: Upstream Projects Database
42
Oil And Gas Infrastructure
42
Oil Refineries
42
Gas Facilities
43
Competitive Landscape
44
Table: Key Players - Gabon Energy Sector
45
Company Profile
46
Addax Petroleum
46
Other Summaries
48
Regional Overview
53
Regional Energy Overview
53
Sub-Salt Expectations
54
Re-targeting Oil Flows
55
East African Gas Boom
56
Fuelling Development: The Downstream Race
58
Post-Revolutionary Blues
59
Global Industry Overview
61
Global Energy Market Overview
61
Table: BMI's Oil Price Forecasts & Bloomberg Analyst Consensus, Average Price (US$/bbl)
62
Table: Global Oil Demand Forecasts
68
Appendix
70
Africa - Regional Appendix
70
Table: Oil Consumption - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017 ('000b/d)
70
Table: Oil Consumption - Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 ('000b/d)
70
Table: Oil Production - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017 ('000b/d)
71
Table: Oil Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 ('000b/d)
72
Table: Refining Capacity - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017 ('000b/d)
72
Table: Refining Capacity - Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 ('000b/d)
73
Table: Gas Consumption - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017 (bcm)
74
Table: Gas Consumption - Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 (bcm)
74
Table: Gas Production - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017 (bcm)
75
Table: Gas Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 (bcm)
75
Table: LNG Net Exports - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017 (bcm)
76
Table: LNG Net Exports - Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 (bcm)
77
Glossary
78
Table: Glossary Of Terms
78
Methodology
80
Energy Industry
81
Cross checks
81
Sources
82

The Gabon Oil & Gas Report has been researched at source and features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s independent forecasts for Gabon including major indicators for oil, gas and LNG, covering all major indicators including reserves, production, consumption, refining capacity, prices, export volumes and values. The report includes full analysis of industry trends and prospects, national and multinational companies and changes in the regulatory environment.

BMI's Gabon Oil & Gas Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Gabonese oil and gas industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent oil and gas industry forecasts for Gabon to test consensus views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Gabonese oil and gas market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Gabonese oil and gas sector through reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Gabon.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and Competitive Landscape Tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI's key forecasts and industry analysis, covering oil and gas reserves, supply, demand and refining, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.

Regional Overview

Regional perspective on size and value of industry sector; comparative rankings by production, refining, imports and exports of oil, gas and LNG.

Business Environment Rankings

BMI's Oil and Gas Business Environment Rankings provide a country-comparative Risk-Reward Rankings index aimed at investors (independents, NOCs, IOCs and oil services companies) in the upstream and downstream markets.

The rankings methodology makes sophisticated use of more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points and is part of BMI's integrated Country Risk-Industry Rankings products.

Oil Market Outlook and Oil Products Outlook

Based on our country coverage of over 99% of global oil and gas production and consumption, BMI provides demand, supply and price forecasts to end-2018 for oil, gas and oil products

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:

Pricing: Oil price (US$/bbl, WTI, Brent, OPEC basket, Urals); Oil products prices (unleaded gasoline, gasoil/diesel, jet/kerosene - US$/bbl) at global hubs

Production, Consumption, Capacity and Reserves: Proven oil reserves (bn barrels), production, consumption, refinery capacity and throughputs (`000b/d); Proven gas reserves (tcm), production and consumption (bcm)

Imports and Exports: Oil exports/imports (`000b/d), value of oil exports/imports (US$mn - BMI base case); Value of oil exports at constant US$50/bbl and constant US$100/bbl (US$mn); Gas exports/imports (bcm), Value of gas exports/imports (US$mn); Value of gas exports/imports at constant US$50/bbl and US$100/bbl (US$mn); Value of petroleum exports/imports (US$mn); Value of petroleum exports/imports at constant US$50/bbl and US$100/bbl (US$mn)

BMI Macroeconomic Forecasts

BMI forecasts to end-2018 for all headline macroeconomic indicators, including real GDP growth, inflation, fiscal balance, trade balance, current account and external debt.

Competitive Landscape

Comparative company analyses by US$ sales, % share of total sales, number of employees, year established, ownership structure, oil production ('000b/d), gas production (bcm), downstream capacity ('000b/d) and % market share.

Company Profiles

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc