Business Monitor International


Gabon Oil & Gas Report

Published 22 July 2014

  • 95 pages
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$1,295.00
Gabon Oil & Gas Report

BMI View:   Recent years has seen an explosion of interest in the highly prospective West African Transform Margin. However, an uptick in exploration offshore Gabon has yielded mixed results, and this quarter a three-well deepwater drilling campaign by Ophir ended dry. Gabon's new hydrocarbons law has also materially worsened both the country's fiscal and licensing terms, and introduced a high degree of regulatory uncertainty. Unless the law is amended, we see Gabon lose investment to other, more attractive West African countries.

The main trends and developments we highlight for Gabon's oil and gas sector are as follows:

  • While we expect some near-term gains in oil production, the longer-term trend for Gabon's oil sector is one of decline, due to both natural depletion at maturing fields and limited new production coming on stream.

  • Although Gabon's deepwater potential offers significant upside risk to our view, a string of disappointing drilling results may dampen interest in expensive exploration campaigns. In addition, the country's new hydrocarbons law has materially worsened fiscal and regulatory terms for international oil and gas companies. Given the abundance of opportunities in the West African upstream, we believe Gabon risks driving investors to other, more attractive frontier players.

  • We forecast gas production rising from 0.07bcm in 2013 to 0.4bcm by 2018. Although exploration poses some upside to this view, the absence of a clear investment plan to capture and monetise gas precludes any larger increase in our forecasts. Harnessing gas will require infrastructure which the country lacks, and we question the commerciality of the country's offshore gas resources.

  • Gabon's oil and gas infrastructure is critically limited. The only significant downstream oil asset is the 24,000b/d SOGARA refinery, built in 1967. The SOGARA refinery is inefficient, underutilised and set to close in 2016. In 2012 Gabon signed a memorandum of understanding with...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
8
Industry Forecast
10
Oil And Gas Reserves
10
Table: Gabon Proven Oil And Gas Reserves And Total Petroleum Data, 2012-2017
10
Table: Gabon Proven Oil And Gas Reserves And Total Petroleum Data, 2018-2023
11
Table: Gabon Oil Production And Net Exports Data 2012-2017
15
Table: Gabon Oil Production And Net Exports Data, 2018-2023
15
Refining And Oil Products Trade
18
Table: Gabon Refining - Production And Consumption Data, 2012-2017
18
Table: Gabon Refining - Production And Consumption Data, 2018-2023
19
Gas Supply And Demand
20
Table: Gabon Gas Production, Consumption And Net Exports Data, 2012-2017
20
Table: Gabon Gas Production, Consumption And Net Exports Data, 2018-2023
21
Revenues/Import Costs
23
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
25
Africa - Risk/Reward Ratings
25
Table: BMI's Africa Oil And Gas Risk/Reward Ratings
26
Riches Lie Underground, While Above-Ground Risks Continue To Loom
26
Table: BMI's Africa Upstream Risk/Reward Ratings
28
An Underwhelming Downstream
33
Table: BMI's Africa Downstream Risk/Reward Ratings
33
Gabon - Risk/Reward Ratings
37
Gabon - Upstream Ratings
37
Gabon - Downstream Ratings
37
Market Overview
38
Gabon Energy Market Overview
38
Overview/State Role
42
Licensing And Regulation
42
Government Policy
43
Licensing Rounds
43
Table: Upstream Projects Database
46
Oil And Gas Infrastructure
46
Oil Refineries
46
Gas Facilities
47
Competitive Landscape
48
Competitive Landscape Summary
48
Table: Key Players - Gabon Energy Sector
49
Company Profile
50
Addax Petroleum
50
Other Summaries
53
Regional Overview
59
Africa Overview
59
Rising Offshore Interest
59
Unconventionals : New Frontier
61
East Africa: Offshore Gas, Onshore Oil
62
Downstream Blues
65
High-Risk Continent
67
Global Industry Overview
71
Global Energy Market Overview
71
OPEC Reconsiders Modus Operandi
73
Production Outages Look Likely To Persist
74
Global Oil Demand Picks Up
75
Capex Growth Cycle Shifting Gears
77
Table: BMI Oil Price Forecasts, Annual Average, USD/bbl
77
Appendix
80
Africa - Regional Appendix
80
Table: Oil Consumption - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 ('000b/d)
80
Table: Oil Consumption - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 ('000b/d)
81
Table: Oil Production - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 ('000b/d)
81
Table: Oil Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 ('000b/d)
82
Table: Refining Capacity - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 ('000b/d)
83
Table: Refining Capacity - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 ('000b/d)
83
Table: Gas Consumption - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 (bcm)
84
Table: Gas Consumption - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 (bcm)
85
Table: Gas Production - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 (bcm)
85
Table: Gas Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 (bcm)
86
Table: LNG Net Exports - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 (bcm)
87
Table: LNG Net Exports - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 (bcm)
87
Gabon - Refined Products Breakdown, 10-year Forecasts
88
Table: Gabon Refined Petroleum Products, Production Breakdown, 2012-2017
88
Table: Gabon Refined Petroleum Products, Production Breakdown, 2018-2023
89
Table: Gabon Refined Petroleum Products, Consumption Breakdown, 2012-2017
90
Table: Gabon Refined Petroleum Products, Consumption Breakdown, 2018-2023
91
Table: Gabon Refined Petroleum Products, Net Exports Breakdown, 2012-2017
92
Table: Gabon Refined Petroleum Products, Net Exports Breakdown, 2018-2023
94
Glossary
95
Table: Glossary Of Terms
95
Methodology
97
Industry Forecast Methodology
97
Source
99
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
99
Table: Bmi's Oil & Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Ratings
101
Table: Weighting
102

The Gabon Oil & Gas Report has been researched at source and features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s independent forecasts for Gabon including major indicators for oil, gas and LNG, covering all major indicators including reserves, production, consumption, refining capacity, prices, export volumes and values. The report includes full analysis of industry trends and prospects, national and multinational companies and changes in the regulatory environment.

BMI's Gabon Oil & Gas Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Gabonese oil and gas industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent oil and gas industry forecasts for Gabon to test consensus views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Gabonese oil and gas market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Gabonese oil and gas sector through reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Gabon.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and Competitive Landscape Tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI's key forecasts and industry analysis, covering oil and gas reserves, supply, demand and refining, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.

Regional Overview

Regional perspective on size and value of industry sector; comparative rankings by production, refining, imports and exports of oil, gas and LNG.

Business Environment Rankings

BMI's Oil and Gas Business Environment Rankings provide a country-comparative Risk-Reward Rankings index aimed at investors (independents, NOCs, IOCs and oil services companies) in the upstream and downstream markets.

The rankings methodology makes sophisticated use of more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points and is part of BMI's integrated Country Risk-Industry Rankings products.

Oil Market Outlook and Oil Products Outlook

Based on our country coverage of over 99% of global oil and gas production and consumption, BMI provides demand, supply and price forecasts to end-2018 for oil, gas and oil products

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:

Pricing: Oil price (US$/bbl, WTI, Brent, OPEC basket, Urals); Oil products prices (unleaded gasoline, gasoil/diesel, jet/kerosene - US$/bbl) at global hubs

Production, Consumption, Capacity and Reserves: Proven oil reserves (bn barrels), production, consumption, refinery capacity and throughputs (`000b/d); Proven gas reserves (tcm), production and consumption (bcm)

Imports and Exports: Oil exports/imports (`000b/d), value of oil exports/imports (US$mn - BMI base case); Value of oil exports at constant US$50/bbl and constant US$100/bbl (US$mn); Gas exports/imports (bcm), Value of gas exports/imports (US$mn); Value of gas exports/imports at constant US$50/bbl and US$100/bbl (US$mn); Value of petroleum exports/imports (US$mn); Value of petroleum exports/imports at constant US$50/bbl and US$100/bbl (US$mn)

BMI Macroeconomic Forecasts

BMI forecasts to end-2018 for all headline macroeconomic indicators, including real GDP growth, inflation, fiscal balance, trade balance, current account and external debt.

Competitive Landscape

Comparative company analyses by US$ sales, % share of total sales, number of employees, year established, ownership structure, oil production ('000b/d), gas production (bcm), downstream capacity ('000b/d) and % market share.

Company Profiles

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc