Business Monitor International


Gabon Autos Report

Published 11 February 2014

  • 37 pages
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$1,295.00
Gabon Autos Report

In our last quarterly report we revised up our forecast for 2013 new vehicle sales in Gabon from 3.8% to 9% y-o-y, on the back of a better than expected vehicle sales performance in the first half of 2013, when the Union of Automotive Industry Representatives (URAI) estimated that new vehicle sales grew 9% y-o-y, 3,062 units, in H113. This quarter we are of a similar view this quarter. We forecast total sales to rise 8.3% in 2014, to 6,302 units. Growth will average 8.3% in 2014-2018. Passenger car growth will average 8.0%, with 5,168 units shifted in 2014.

While this is partly owing to favourable base effects from nearly a 10% y-o-y decline in sales in 2012, the URAI attributes the growth to the resurgence in public and private sector activity during 2013, which clearly translated into increased vehicle demand. We believe that the vehicle demand could have also been bolstered by the strong euro which has lowered the real cost of vehicle imports.

In the medium to longer term, the increasing role of the non-oil sector of the economy will serve to drive private consumption and manufacturing activity in the country, which will assist vehicle sales.

Updated historical data indicate that Gabon's non-oil sector is expanding more rapidly than we had previously anticipated, and this has led us to upwardly revise our 2014 real GDP growth forecast from 5.5% to 6.8%. President Ali Bongo's diversification drive, which aims to transform Gabon into an 'emerging economy' by encouraging the growth of non-oil industries, is succeeding to a degree which we had not foreseen. We still believe that the president's goals are overly optimistic, but note that investment in infrastructure projects has boosted headline growth. However, we also continue to believe that flagging oil production will cause the Gabonese economy to decelerate sharply after 2017.

URAI data suggest that Toyota Motor remains the dominant player in Gabon, cornering 32% of the total market in H113. Mitsubishi Motors...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
5
Industry Forecast
6
Industry Forecast Scenario
6
Table: Gabon Automotives Sales, 2011-2018
6
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
10
Africa - Risk Reward/Ratings
10
Table: Autos Risk/Reward Ratings - Sub-Saharan Africa
13
Competitive Landscape
14
Company Profile
16
Company Monitor
16
Table: Top 20 SSA Consumer Markets, 2013
17
Regional Overview
18
Autos - Africa: Fruits of Investment A Key Theme For 2014
18
Competition Heats Up In Kenya
18
Hubs Developing-
20
Table: Sub-Saharan Africa Investment Projects
20
Divergent Fortunes Of Nigeria And South Africa
22
Global Industry Overview
23
Table: Passenger Car Sales November 2013 (CBUs)
23
Europe On Road To Recovery
23
Tax Hike Skews Japan's Outlook; US Hits Sweet 16
25
China Is BRIC Bright Spot
27
Demographic Forecast
30
Gabon Demographic Forecast
30
Table: Gabon's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
31
Table: Gabon's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
32
Table: Gabon's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
33
Table: Gabon's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
33
Methodology
34
Industry Forecasts
34
Sector-Specific Methodology
35
Sources
35
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
36
Table: Automotive Risk/Reward Ratings Indicators And Weighting Of Indicators
37

The Gabon Autos Report features the latest data and forecasts covering production, sales, imports and exports.

Business Monitor International (BMI)'s Gabon Autos Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, auto associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the automotives market in Gabon.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent automotives industry forecasts on Gabon to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the Gabonese automotives market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Gabonese automotives sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Gabon.
  • Assess the activities and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Competitive Landscape Analysis.

Coverage

Executive Summary

Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts and views, covering production, sales and the introduction of new technology or products.

Global, Regional and Country Industry Overviews

In-depth analysis of the major global and regional developments in the market, which can be linked with the country industry overview, providing cross-country investment, product and financing trends that will affect each market, supported by BMI’s global and regional industry forecasts.

Business Environment Ratings

BMI's proprietary Autos Business Environment Ratings are a unique country-comparative Risk-Reward Ratings index that separately analyses the risks and rewards of operating in each market. It is aimed at investors (including manufacturers, suppliers and dealers) who seek to either identify and compare market opportunities, or evaluate country-specific operational challenges.

The ratings methodology makes sophisticated use of over 40 industries, economic and demographic data points.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series and forecasts to end-2017 for all key industry indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:

Total production value (US$bn); total production of units; production by vehicle-type (including cars, commercial vehicles, trucks and buses); total sales value (US$bn); sales by vehicle-type, including passenger cars and commercial vehicles (vans and microbuses, pickups, trucks and buses, 4 wheel drive); total exports by value (US$bn) and by units; total imports by value (US$bn) and by units; contribution to GDP; employment in industry.

BMI Economic Forecasts

BMI forecasts to end-2017 for all headline macroeconomic indicators, including real GDP growth, inflation, fiscal balance, trade balance, current account and external debt.

Company Profiles

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

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