Business Monitor International


France Metals Report

Published 26 February 2014

  • 46 pages
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$1,295.00
France Metals Report

France's metals sector is set for very modest gro wth and, in some cases, decline, as major producers hold back on investment. Steel will continue to dominate the country's metals industry, but we do not expect any significant new investment. ArcelorMittal and Rio Tinto , the two largest producers in the country , are facing an increasingly hostile and competitive operating environment , with steel still cheap on a relative basis and aluminium being exported from China. We therefore do not expect France to return to pre-2008 rates of production over the foreseeable future.

The relatively strong performance the French steel industry enjoyed in H113 had dissipated in the second half of the year as it struggled with an increasingly sluggish domestic manufacturing sector and an equally listless European scenario. Uncertainty surrounds the future of ArcelorMittal's Florange steel mill, which has turned into an increasingly fraught political dispute. By 2013 a deal by the government to save the plant from closure with a five-year investment programme appeared to have failed due to technical difficulties, but it seemed unlikely the government would carry through with its threat to nationalise the facility.

Pre-Crisis Highs To Remain A Memory
France - Steel Output (kt)

While France has been one of Europe's better performing steel-producing countries, output was still 20% below typical pre-2008 levels in 2014 and we estimate that utilisation levels are averaging 70-75%. Cuts in crude steel-making capacity are therefore inevitable in order to ensure the long-term stability of both the French and EU steel industries.

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Metals SWOT
9
Industry Forecast
11
Steel: Weak Growth Outlook As Economy Stalls
11
Demand: Muted Outlook For Infrastructure And Autos
12
Table: France - Steel Production, Consumption And Balance ('000 tonnes)
13
Table: France - Steel Industry Historical Data ('000 tonnes)
13
Commodities Forecast
14
Steel Price Forecast
14
Table: BMI Steel Forecast
14
Short-Term Outlook
14
Core View
14
Global Steel Glut To Persist
15
Production: Rationalisation In The Long Term
15
Consumption: Growth Decelerating
17
Excessive Chinese Exports
18
Growing Arbitrage Between East & West
19
Risks To Price Outlook
19
Table: Steel Data & Forecasts
20
Table: Global Steel Prices By Region & Product, US$/tonne (ave)
20
Commodity Strategy
21
Aluminium: Continued Short-Term Weakness
25
Copper: Recent Strength Doesn't Change Our View
25
Nickel: Recent Strength To Subside
27
Zinc: Price Momentum To Continue
29
Table: Select Commodities - Performance & BMI Forecasts
31
Competitive Landscape
32
Table: Metals Industry - Key Facilities
32
Table: Largest Listed European Listed Metals Producers
34
Company Profile
35
ArcelorMittal
35
Company Strategy
38
Latest Financial Results
39
Company Details
40
Financial Data
40
Table: ArcelorMittal - Key Financial Data
40
Rio Tinto
40
Company Overview
42
Company Strategy
43
Latest Financial Results
44
Table: Rio Tinto - Key Financial Data
45
Methodology
46
Cross Checks
46

The France Metals Report has been researched at source, and features latest-available data for steel, aluminium and other major globally-traded commodities. Our analysis covers all primary indicators, including production, exports and price, with our forecasts underpinned by Business Monitor International (BMI)'s macroeconomists global economic outlook. The report analyses trends and prospects and critically evaluates latest industry news, trends and regulatory developments in France.

BMI's France Metals Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, business investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the metals industry in France.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent metals industry forecasts for France to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the France metals market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in France through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major projects and investments.
  • Exploit the latest competitive intelligence and company profiles on your competitors and peers.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI's key forecasts and industry analysis, covering metals production and prices, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.

SWOT Analysis

SWOT (Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats) analysis of the state's metals sector, business environment, politics and economics, which carefully evaluates the short- and medium-term issues facing the industry.

Global Metals Market Overview

Global demand, supply and price forecasts for steel and aluminium, as well as gold, copper and tin, drawing on both our industry expertise and our macroeconomic and financial market team's long-term global demand forecasts and shorter-term market views.

Industry Forecasts

Historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry indicators (see list below) supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast.

Production (`000 tonnes, US$bn), consumption (`000 tonnes, US$bn), exports (`000 tonnes, US$bn); prices (US$/tonne), and growth (%).

Macroeconomic Forecasts

BMI forecasts to end-2018 for headline country macroeconomic indicators, including real GDP growth (%), GDP per capita (US$), population (mn), industrial production index (% y-o-y average) and unemployment (% of labour force).

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc