Business Monitor International


France Metals Report

Published 27 November 2014

  • 46 pages
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$1,295.00
France Metals Report

France's metals sector is set for an extended period of very modest but uninterrupted growth in terms of both output and consumption through to the end of our forecast period in 2018. As long as major producers in the sector hold back on investment, however, we will not see growth accelerating at a rate any faster than the broader European market. Within the metals industry, steel will continue to dominate the country's metals industry, aided by a turnaround in the fortunes of France's domestic autos industry in 2015. ArcelorMittal and Rio Tinto, the two largest producers in the country, are facing an increasingly hostile and competitive operating environment, with steel still cheap on a relative basis and aluminium being exported from China. We therefore do not expect France to return to pre-2008 rates of production or consumption before the end of our forecast period to 2018.  

Uncertainty surrounds the future of ArcelorMittal's Florange steel mill, which has turned into an increasingly fraught political dispute. By 2013, a deal by the government to save the plant from closure with a five-year investment programme appeared to have failed due to technical difficulties, but it seemed unlikely the government would carry through with its threat to nationalise the facility.

Pre-Crisis Highs To Remain A Memory
France - Steel Output (kt)

While France has been one of Europe's better performing steel-producing countries, output was still 20% below typical pre-2008 levels in 2014 and we estimate that utilisation levels are averaging 70-75%. Cuts in crude steel-making capacity are therefore inevitable in order to ensure the long-term stability of both the French and EU steel industries. For now, however, we are forecasting a year-on-year (y-o-y) increase in steel production in France for the remainder of our forecast period, with growth averaging 0.7% y-o-y to reach 16.2mnt by 2018. This is a forecast supported by the monthly data to have been released for the French...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Metals SWOT
9
Industry Forecast
11
Steel: Weak Growth Outlook As Economy Stalls
11
Demand: Muted Outlook For Infrastructure And Autos
12
Table: Steel Production & Consumption (France 2010-2018)
13
Table: Steel Industry Historical Data (France 2005-2012)
13
Commodities Forecast
15
Commodity Strategy
15
Ferrous Metals:
16
Iron Ore: Price Slump Overdone, Stabilisation In Sight
16
Steel: Price Forecast Revised Up
16
Non-Ferrous Metals:
18
Aluminium: Recent Break Signals Multi-Month Strength
18
Copper: Subdued Prices Into Q314
19
Lead: Prices To Strengthen As Deficit Deepens
20
Nickel: H214 Rally Unlikely
21
Tin: More Resilient Than Other Metals
22
Zinc: Sustained Break Unlikely
24
Table: Select Commodities - Performance & BMI Forecasts
26
Commodities Forecast
26
Table: BMI Steel Price Forecast
26
Short-Term Outlook
26
Core View
27
Surplus Set To Slim
28
Production: Reining In Growth
28
Consumption: Deceleration Ahead
30
No Respite From Chinese Exports Over Coming Months
32
Arbitrage Set To Grow Between East And West
32
Risks To Price Outlook
33
Table: Steel Data & Forecasts
34
Table: Global Steel Prices By Region & Product, USD/tonne (average)
35
Competitive Landscape
36
Table: Metals Industry - Key Facilities
36
Table: Largest Listed European Listed Metals Producers
37
Company Profile
40
Rio Tinto
40
Company Overview
42
Company Strategy
43
Latest Financial Results
44
Table: Rio Tinto - Key Financial Data
45
ArcelorMittal
45
Company Overview
47
Company Strategy
47
Latest Financial Results
49
Company Details
49
Financial Data
49
Table: ArcelorMittal - Key Financial Data
49
Methodology
50
Cross Checks
50

The France Metals Report has been researched at source, and features latest-available data for steel, aluminium and other major globally-traded commodities. Our analysis covers all primary indicators, including production, exports and price, with our forecasts underpinned by Business Monitor International (BMI)'s macroeconomists global economic outlook. The report analyses trends and prospects and critically evaluates latest industry news, trends and regulatory developments in France.

BMI's France Metals Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, business investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the metals industry in France.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent metals industry forecasts for France to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the France metals market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in France through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major projects and investments.
  • Exploit the latest competitive intelligence and company profiles on your competitors and peers.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI's key forecasts and industry analysis, covering metals production and prices, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.

SWOT Analysis

SWOT (Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats) analysis of the state's metals sector, business environment, politics and economics, which carefully evaluates the short- and medium-term issues facing the industry.

Global Metals Market Overview

Global demand, supply and price forecasts for steel and aluminium, as well as gold, copper and tin, drawing on both our industry expertise and our macroeconomic and financial market team's long-term global demand forecasts and shorter-term market views.

Industry Forecasts

Historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry indicators (see list below) supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast.

Production (`000 tonnes, US$bn), consumption (`000 tonnes, US$bn), exports (`000 tonnes, US$bn); prices (US$/tonne), and growth (%).

Macroeconomic Forecasts

BMI forecasts to end-2018 for headline country macroeconomic indicators, including real GDP growth (%), GDP per capita (US$), population (mn), industrial production index (% y-o-y average) and unemployment (% of labour force).

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc