BMI View: France's metals sector is set for an extended period of very modest gro wth through to the end of our forecast period in 2018 , as major producers hold back on investment. Steel will continue to dominate the country's metals industry, but we do not expect any significant new investment. ArcelorMittal and Rio Tinto , the two largest producers in the country , are facing an increasingly hostile and competitive operating environment , with steel still cheap on a relative basis and aluminium being exported from China. We therefore do not expect France to return to pre-2008 rates of production or consumption before the end of our forecast period to 2018 .
Uncertainty surrounds the future of ArcelorMittal's Florange steel mill, which has turned into an increasingly fraught political dispute. By 2013 a deal by the government to save the plant from closure with a five-year investment programme appeared to have failed due to technical difficulties, but it seemed unlikely the government would carry through with its threat to nationalise the facility.
| Pre-Crisis Highs To Remain A Memory |
|France - Steel Output (kt)|
While France has been one of Europe's better performing steel-producing countries, output was still 20% below typical pre-2008 levels in 2014 and we estimate that utilisation levels are averaging 70-75%. Cuts in crude steel-making capacity are therefore inevitable in order to ensure the long-term stability of both the French and EU steel industries. For now, however, we are forecasting a year-on-year (y-o-y) increase in steel production in France for the remainder of our forecast period, with growth averaging 0.7% y-o-y to reach 16.3mnt by 2018. This is a forecast supported by the monthly data to have been released for the French steel industry so far this year. The numbers show that activity has risen in all but two of the first six months of 2014, with the largest increase in output coming in April when activity was up by 16% y-o-y....
The France Metals Report has been researched at source, and features latest-available data for steel, aluminium and other major globally-traded commodities. Our analysis covers all primary indicators, including production, exports and price, with our forecasts underpinned by Business Monitor International (BMI)'s macroeconomists global economic outlook. The report analyses trends and prospects and critically evaluates latest industry news, trends and regulatory developments in France.
BMI's France Metals Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, business investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the metals industry in France.
- Benchmark BMI's independent metals industry forecasts for France to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the France metals market.
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BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI's key forecasts and industry analysis, covering metals production and prices, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.
SWOT (Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats) analysis of the state's metals sector, business environment, politics and economics, which carefully evaluates the short- and medium-term issues facing the industry.
Global Metals Market Overview
Global demand, supply and price forecasts for steel and aluminium, as well as gold, copper and tin, drawing on both our industry expertise and our macroeconomic and financial market team's long-term global demand forecasts and shorter-term market views.
Historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry indicators (see list below) supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast.
Production (`000 tonnes, US$bn), consumption (`000 tonnes, US$bn), exports (`000 tonnes, US$bn); prices (US$/tonne), and growth (%).
BMI forecasts to end-2018 for headline country macroeconomic indicators, including real GDP growth (%), GDP per capita (US$), population (mn), industrial production index (% y-o-y average) and unemployment (% of labour force).