Business Monitor International


France Metals Report

Published 18 September 2014

  • 46 pages
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$1,295.00
France Metals Report

BMI View: France's metals sector is set for an extended period of very modest gro wth through to the end of our forecast period in 2018 , as major producers hold back on investment. Steel will continue to dominate the country's metals industry, but we do not expect any significant new investment. ArcelorMittal and Rio Tinto , the two largest producers in the country , are facing an increasingly hostile and competitive operating environment , with steel still cheap on a relative basis and aluminium being exported from China. We therefore do not expect France to return to pre-2008 rates of production or consumption before the end of our forecast period to 2018 .

Uncertainty surrounds the future of ArcelorMittal's Florange steel mill, which has turned into an increasingly fraught political dispute. By 2013 a deal by the government to save the plant from closure with a five-year investment programme appeared to have failed due to technical difficulties, but it seemed unlikely the government would carry through with its threat to nationalise the facility.

Pre-Crisis Highs To Remain A Memory
France - Steel Output (kt)

While France has been one of Europe's better performing steel-producing countries, output was still 20% below typical pre-2008 levels in 2014 and we estimate that utilisation levels are averaging 70-75%. Cuts in crude steel-making capacity are therefore inevitable in order to ensure the long-term stability of both the French and EU steel industries. For now, however, we are forecasting a year-on-year (y-o-y) increase in steel production in France for the remainder of our forecast period, with growth averaging 0.7% y-o-y to reach 16.3mnt by 2018. This is a forecast supported by the monthly data to have been released for the French steel industry so far this year. The numbers show that activity has risen in all but two of the first six months of 2014, with the largest increase in output coming in April when activity was up by 16% y-o-y....

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Metals SWOT
9
Industry Forecast
11
Steel: Weak Growth Outlook As Economy Stalls
11
Demand: Muted Outlook For Infrastructure And Autos
12
Table: Steel Production & Consumption (000 tonnes, Unless Stated Otherwise) (France 2010-2018)
13
Table: Steel Industry Historical Data (000 tonnes, Unless Stated Otherwise) (France 2005-2012)
13
Commodities Forecast
15
Steel Price Forecast
15
Table: BMI Steel Forecast
15
Short-Term Outlook
15
Core View
16
Global Steel Glut To Persist
16
Production: Rationalisation In The Long Term
17
Consumption: Growth Decelerating
19
Excessive Chinese Exports
20
Growing Arbitrage Between East & West
21
Risks To Price Outlook
21
Table: Steel Data & Forecasts
22
Table: Global Steel Prices By Region & Product, US$/tonne (ave)
22
Monthly Metals Update
23
Iron Ore: Chinese Stimulus Not A Game Changer
24
Steel: Gradual Rationalisation Insufficient To Boost Prices
26
Aluminium: Recent Rally Unlikely To Persist Into H214
27
Copper: Bearish Forecast Appears Well Placed
28
Lead: Picking Up Autos Sector Tailwinds
29
Nickel: Recent Rise To Fall Back In H214
30
Zinc: Potential Test Of Resistance In Coming Weeks
32
Table: Select Commodities - Performance & BMI Forecasts
34
Competitive Landscape
35
Table: Metals Industry - Key Facilities
35
Table: Largest Listed European Listed Metals Producers
36
Company Profile
38
Rio Tinto
38
Company Overview
40
Company Strategy
41
Latest Financial Results
42
Table: Rio Tinto - Key Financial Data
43
ArcelorMittal
43
Company Overview
45
Company Strategy
45
Latest Financial Results
47
Company Details
47
Financial Data
47
Table: ArcelorMittal - Key Financial Data
47
Methodology
48
Cross Checks
48

The France Metals Report has been researched at source, and features latest-available data for steel, aluminium and other major globally-traded commodities. Our analysis covers all primary indicators, including production, exports and price, with our forecasts underpinned by Business Monitor International (BMI)'s macroeconomists global economic outlook. The report analyses trends and prospects and critically evaluates latest industry news, trends and regulatory developments in France.

BMI's France Metals Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, business investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the metals industry in France.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent metals industry forecasts for France to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the France metals market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in France through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major projects and investments.
  • Exploit the latest competitive intelligence and company profiles on your competitors and peers.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI's key forecasts and industry analysis, covering metals production and prices, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.

SWOT Analysis

SWOT (Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats) analysis of the state's metals sector, business environment, politics and economics, which carefully evaluates the short- and medium-term issues facing the industry.

Global Metals Market Overview

Global demand, supply and price forecasts for steel and aluminium, as well as gold, copper and tin, drawing on both our industry expertise and our macroeconomic and financial market team's long-term global demand forecasts and shorter-term market views.

Industry Forecasts

Historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry indicators (see list below) supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast.

Production (`000 tonnes, US$bn), consumption (`000 tonnes, US$bn), exports (`000 tonnes, US$bn); prices (US$/tonne), and growth (%).

Macroeconomic Forecasts

BMI forecasts to end-2018 for headline country macroeconomic indicators, including real GDP growth (%), GDP per capita (US$), population (mn), industrial production index (% y-o-y average) and unemployment (% of labour force).

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc