Business Monitor International


France Food & Drink Report

Published 16 June 2014

  • 128 pages
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$1,295.00
France Food & Drink Report

BMI View:   France's economy is still lagging substantially behind regional peers. The outlook for French households did not improve significantly over Q114, however, with unemployment continuing its steady ascent to record highs. While consumer confidence has risen in recent readings, we see few fundamental factors supporting this growing optimism. Food retail sales are now down, indicating that momentum supporting the sector has waned. Still, the importance of the food industry for the economy and the fact that France is one of the few European countries with a growing, young population will leave food consumption growth relatively steady over the coming years.

Headline Industry Data (local currency)

  • 2014 per capita food consumption = +0.8%; forecast compound annual growth rate (CAGR) to 2018 = +0.8%.

  • 2014 alcoholic drink value sales = +0.4%; forecast CAGR to 2018 = +0.5%.

  • 2014 soft drink value sales = +2.6%; forecast CAGR to 2018 = +2.6%.

  • 2014 mass grocery retail sales = +2.5%; forecast CAGR to 2018 = +2.5%.

Organic Market Recovering But Expected To Remain Marginal : We continue to expect strong growth opportunities for organic producers in the EU with steady demand growth in the UK, Ireland, France and Germany. Still, we expect the organic market to remain marginal and vulnerable to swings in consumption patterns, especially linked to economic conditions. As a result, we expect conversions from conventional to organic farming to slow in the near term.

Aborted Sales Will Limit Further Growth Potential In Europe : Pernod's decision to cancel the sale of its Czech liquor brand Becherovka will result in muted profit growth in Europe in the context of an already subdued consumer environment. Pernod Ricard will have to find new avenues for growth in the short term, as we maintain our outlook for constrained growth in spirits sales in China. We see more potential for wine growth in the US, a market Pernod has recently sought to strengthen...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Food
9
Drink
11
Mass Grocery Retail
13
Industry Forecast
15
Consumer Outlook
15
Food
18
Food Consumption
18
Table: Food Consumption - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018
18
Prepared Food/Canned Food
19
Table: Canned Food Value/Volume Sales - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018
19
Confectionery
20
Table: Confectionery Value/Volume Sales - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018
21
Drink
22
Hot Drinks
22
Table: Coffee &Tea Value/Volume Sales - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018
22
Soft Drinks
23
Table: Soft Drinks Value/Volume Sales - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018
23
Alcoholic Drinks
25
Table: Alcoholic Drinks Value/Volume Sales - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2013-2018
27
Mass Grocery Retail
28
Table: Mass Grocery Retail Forecasts
28
Table: Grocery Retail Sales By Format
29
Trade
30
Table: Food & Drink Trade Indicators - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2013-2018
30
Macroeconomic Forecast
31
Macro Outlook
31
Real GDP By Expenditure Breakdown
32
Risks To Outlook
35
Table: France - Economic Activity
36
Industry Risk/Reward Ratings
37
Western Europe - Risk/Reward Ratings
37
Table: Western Europe Food & Drink Risk/Reward Ratings Q314
38
Table: Western Europe Food & Drink Risk/Reward Sub-Factor Ratings Q314 (scores out of 10)
41
France Risk/Reward Ratings
43
Market Overview
44
Food
44
Food Processing
44
Prepared Food/Canned Food
44
Table: Frozen Fruits Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2013-2018
45
Table: Pasta Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2013-2018
45
Meat
46
Table: Meat Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2013-2018
47
Fish
47
Table: Fish Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2013-2018
48
Oils And Fats
49
Table: Oils & Fats Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2013-2018
49
Dairy
52
Table: Dairy Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2013-2018
52
Confectionery
60
Snack Foods
60
Table: Snack Foods Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2013-2018
61
Trade
63
Organic Farming
63
Drink
64
Soft Drinks
64
Alcoholic Drinks
65
Mass Grocery Retail
66
Industry Trends And Developments
69
Food
69
Drink
72
Mass Grocery Retail
76
Competitive Landscape
81
Table: Key Players In France's Food Sector
81
Table: Key Players In France's Drink Sector
82
Table: Key Players In France's Mass Grocery Retail Sector
82
Company Profile
85
Danone
85
Table: Danone Selected Financial Indicators And Ratios By Operating Segment, Ranked By FY11 Operating Margin (%)
90
Table: DANONE KEY YEAR END FINANCIALS
90
Nestl-
91
Table: Operating Margins By Segment (%)
95
Table: Nestl- Financial Results
97
Pernod Ricard
98
Table: Pernod Ricard's Financial Highlights
103
Carrefour
104
Table: Carrefour's Main Financial Highlights
111
LVMH Group (Mo-t Hennessy Louis Vuitton)
112
Groupe Auchan
114
Groupe Casino
116
Global Industry Overview
119
Table: Food And Drink Core Views
128
Demographic Forecast
129
Table: France's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
130
Table: France's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
131
Table: France's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
132
Table: France's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
132
Glossary
133
Food & Drink
133
Mass Grocery Retail
133
Methodology
135
Industry Forecast Methodology
135
Sector-Specific Methodology
136
Sources
136
Risk/Reward Rating Methodology
137
Table: Food & Drink Risk/Reward Rating Indicators
138
Table: Weighting
139

The France Food & Drink Report features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s market assessment and independent forecasts for food and drink expenditure, consumption, sales, and imports/exports and forecasts for the mass grocery retail sector. The report also includes analyses of major regulatory developments, the background macroeconomic outlook and competitive landscape comparing national and multinational companies by leading products and services, sales, investments, partners and expansion strategies.

BMI's France Food & Drink Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, business investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the food and drink industry and the mass grocery retail market in France.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent food and drink industry forecasts for France to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the French food and drink market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in France through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments.
  • Exploit latest competitive intelligence on your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and Competitive Landscape Tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts, and views, covering food and drink manufacturing and consumption and the retail market.

Business Environment Rankings

BMI's Food & Drink Business Environment Rankings provide a country-comparative Risk-Reward Rankings index aimed at investors, food and drink manufacturers and mass grocery retailers.

The rankings methodology makes sophisticated use of over 40 industry, economic and demographic data points.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the food, drink and mass grocery retail sectors, and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

Food Forecasts

BMI's food chapter is divided into sections such as Meat, Fish, Confectionary, Dairy and Canned Foods, and provides insight into a market's food industry, centred on a forecast to end-2018 for the sector. The chapter includes the following elements:

Industry Forecast Scenario - Historical data series and forecasts to end-2018 for growth of key indicators within a market's food industry. Including consumption, food consumption as % of GDP, canned food sales, confectionery sales and food and drink imports and exports, among others.

Industry Developments - A summary of corporate developments, including news on M&As, FDI, expansions, closures and financial results, in addition to analysis and explanation of the latest industry events and how these could influence further investment.

Market Overview - An overview of the structure of the market, introducing the key players and discussing underlying trends.

Drink Forecasts

Segmented the same way as BMI's food chapter, the drink section provides insight into the market's drink industry, centred on a forecast to end-2018 for the sector. Forecast indicators include alcoholic and soft drink sales by value, volume and sub-sector and tea and coffee sales, among others.

Mass Grocery Retail Forecasts

Segmented the same way as BMI's food and drink chapters, the mass grocery retail section provides insight into a market's grocery retail industry, centred on a forecast to end-201 for the sector. Forecast indicators include mass grocery retail sales by format (including supermarkets, hypermarkets, convenience and discount stores) and a breakdown for the organised retail sector versus the traditional sector, among others.

Competitive Landscape & Profiles

Illustration of the industry via rankings tables comparing revenues, number of outlets and number of employees. BMI analyses each company's market position, business strategies and investment potential.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc