Business Monitor International


France Food & Drink Report

Published 02 October 2014

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$1,295.00
France Food & Drink Report

BMI View:   France's economy is still lagging substantially behind regional peers. The outlook for French households did not improve significantly over Q114, however, with unemployment continuing its steady ascent to record highs. While consumer confidence has risen in recent readings, we see few fundamental factors supporting this growing optimism. Food retail sales are now down, indicating that momentum supporting the sector has waned. Still, the importance of the food industry for the economy and the fact that France is one of the few European countries with a growing, young population will leave food consumption growth relatively steady over the coming years.

Headline Industry Data (local currency)

  • 2014 per capita food consumption = +0.8%; forecast compound annual growth rate (CAGR) to 2018 = +0.8%.

  • 2014 alcoholic drink value sales = +0.4%; forecast CAGR to 2018 = +0.5%.

  • 2014 soft drink value sales = +2.6%; forecast CAGR to 2018 = +2.6%.

  • 2014 mass grocery retail sales = +2.5%; forecast CAGR to 2018 = +2.5%.

Organic Market Recovering But Expected To Remain Marginal : We continue to expect strong growth opportunities for organic producers in the EU with steady demand growth in the UK, Ireland, France and Germany. Still, we expect the organic market to remain marginal and vulnerable to swings in consumption patterns, especially linked to economic conditions. As a result, we expect conversions from conventional to organic farming to slow in the near term.

Aborted Sales Will Limit Further Growth Potential In Europe : Pernod's decision to cancel the sale of its Czech liquor brand Becherovka will result in muted profit growth in Europe in the context of an already subdued consumer environment. Pernod Ricard will have to find new avenues for growth in the short term, as we maintain our outlook for constrained growth in spirits sales in China. We see more potential for wine growth in the US, a market Pernod has recently sought to strengthen...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
8
Food
8
Drink
10
Mass Grocery Retail
12
Industry Forecast
14
Consumer Outlook
14
Food
17
Food Consumption
17
Table: Food Consumption Indicators - Historical Data & Forecasts (France 2011-2018)
18
Prepared Food/Canned Food
18
Confectionery
19
Table: Confectionery Value/Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts (France 2011-2018)
20
Drink
21
Hot Drinks
21
Table: Hot Drink Value/Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts (France 2013-2018)
22
Soft Drinks
23
Table: Soft Drinks Value/Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts (France 2013-2018)
24
Alcoholic Drinks
25
Table: Alcoholic Drinks Value/Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts (France 2013-2018)
27
Mass Grocery Retail
28
Table: Mass Grocery Retail Sales By Format - Historical Data & Forecasts (France 2013-2018)
29
Table: Grocery Retail Sales By Format
29
Trade
30
Table: Trade Balance - Historical Data & Forecasts (France 2013-2018)
30
Macroeconomic Forecast
31
Macroeconomic Forecasts
31
Macro Outlook
31
Real GDP By Expenditure
32
Risks To Outlook
36
Table: GDP By Expenditure (France 2011-2018)
37
Industry Risk/Reward Ratings
38
Western Europe - Risk/Reward Ratings
38
Table: Western Europe Food & Drink Risk/Reward Ratings Q414
39
Table: Western Europe Food & Drink Risk/Reward Sub-Factor Ratings Q414 (scores out of 10)
43
France Risk/Reward Ratings
44
Market Overview
45
Food
45
Food Processing
45
Prepared Food/Canned Food
45
Table: Frozen Fruits Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2013-2018
46
Table: Pasta Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2013-2018
47
Meat
47
Table: Meat Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2013-2018
47
Fish
48
Table: Fish Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2013-2018
48
Oils And Fats
50
Table: Oils & Fats Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2013-2018
50
Dairy
53
Table: Dairy Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2013-2018
53
Confectionery
61
Snack Foods
61
Table: Snack Foods Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2013-2018
61
Trade
63
Organic Farming
64
Drink
65
Soft Drinks
65
Alcoholic Drinks
66
Mass Grocery Retail
67
Table: Structure Of Mass Grocery Retail Market By Estimated Number of Outlets (France 2005-2014)
70
Table: Mass Grocery Retail Sales By Format (USDbn) (France 2005-2014)
70
Table: Mass Grocery Retail Sales By Format (loccurbn) (France 2005-2014)
70
Industry Trends And Developments
71
Food
71
Drink
74
Mass Grocery Retail
78
Competitive Landscape
82
Table: Key Players In France's Food Sector
82
Table: Key Players In France's Drink Sector
83
Table: Key Players In France's Mass Grocery Retail Sector
83
Company Profile
86
Danone
86
Table: Danone Selected Financial Indicators And Ratios By Operating Segment, Ranked By FY11 Operating Margin (%)
92
Table: Danone Key Year End Financials
92
Nestl-
93
Table: Nestl- Financial Results
100
Pernod Ricard
101
Table: Pernod Ricard's Financial Highlights
108
Carrefour
109
Table: Carrefour's Main Financial Highlights
115
LVMH Group (Mo-t Hennessy Louis Vuitton)
116
Groupe Auchan
118
Groupe Casino
121
Carrefour
124
Table: Carrefour's Main Financial Highlights
129
Global Industry Overview
130
Table: Select Food Companies - R&D And Advertising Financials
136
Table: Food And Drink Core Views
138
Demographic Forecast
139
Demographic Outlook
139
Table: France's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
140
Table: France's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
141
Table: France's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
142
Table: France's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
142
Glossary
143
Food & Drink
143
Mass Grocery Retail
143
Methodology
145
Industry Forecast Methodology
145
Sector-Specific Methodology
146
Sources
146
Risk/Reward Rating Methodology
147
Table: Food & Drink Risk/Reward Rating Indicators
148
Table: Weighting
149

The France Food & Drink Report features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s market assessment and independent forecasts for food and drink expenditure, consumption, sales, and imports/exports and forecasts for the mass grocery retail sector. The report also includes analyses of major regulatory developments, the background macroeconomic outlook and competitive landscape comparing national and multinational companies by leading products and services, sales, investments, partners and expansion strategies.

BMI's France Food & Drink Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, business investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the food and drink industry and the mass grocery retail market in France.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent food and drink industry forecasts for France to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the French food and drink market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in France through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments.
  • Exploit latest competitive intelligence on your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and Competitive Landscape Tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts, and views, covering food and drink manufacturing and consumption and the retail market.

Business Environment Rankings

BMI's Food & Drink Business Environment Rankings provide a country-comparative Risk-Reward Rankings index aimed at investors, food and drink manufacturers and mass grocery retailers.

The rankings methodology makes sophisticated use of over 40 industry, economic and demographic data points.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the food, drink and mass grocery retail sectors, and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

Food Forecasts

BMI's food chapter is divided into sections such as Meat, Fish, Confectionary, Dairy and Canned Foods, and provides insight into a market's food industry, centred on a forecast to end-2018 for the sector. The chapter includes the following elements:

Industry Forecast Scenario - Historical data series and forecasts to end-2018 for growth of key indicators within a market's food industry. Including consumption, food consumption as % of GDP, canned food sales, confectionery sales and food and drink imports and exports, among others.

Industry Developments - A summary of corporate developments, including news on M&As, FDI, expansions, closures and financial results, in addition to analysis and explanation of the latest industry events and how these could influence further investment.

Market Overview - An overview of the structure of the market, introducing the key players and discussing underlying trends.

Drink Forecasts

Segmented the same way as BMI's food chapter, the drink section provides insight into the market's drink industry, centred on a forecast to end-2018 for the sector. Forecast indicators include alcoholic and soft drink sales by value, volume and sub-sector and tea and coffee sales, among others.

Mass Grocery Retail Forecasts

Segmented the same way as BMI's food and drink chapters, the mass grocery retail section provides insight into a market's grocery retail industry, centred on a forecast to end-201 for the sector. Forecast indicators include mass grocery retail sales by format (including supermarkets, hypermarkets, convenience and discount stores) and a breakdown for the organised retail sector versus the traditional sector, among others.

Competitive Landscape & Profiles

Illustration of the industry via rankings tables comparing revenues, number of outlets and number of employees. BMI analyses each company's market position, business strategies and investment potential.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc