Business Monitor International


France Agribusiness Report

Published 22 January 2015

  • 107 pages
  • Instant access to your report online and PDF format through your account library
  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
 
$1,295.00
France Agribusiness Report

BMI View: We forecast a decline in grains growth in 2015/16 in France, as weak wheat prices around the planting season likely led to a decline in plantings. We forecast wheat production to grow over our forecast period, and expect production to reach 40.0mn tonnes by 2018/19. The dairy sector will not be fundamentally affected by the removal of the EU's production quota in early 2015, but will expand out to 2019. Cheese production will grow strongly as international exports will be in strong demand. Poultry output growth will outperform that of the broader livestock sector as soft economic growth will encourage consumption.

Agribusiness Market Value
BMI Market Value By Commodity (2011-2019)

Key Forecasts

  • Wheat production growth 2013/14 to 2018/19: 2.7% to 40.0mn tonnes. We expect wheat to remain one of the most profitable crop in the country and the one most in demand for domestic use and exports.

  • Poultry consumption growth to 2018: 4.9% to 1.7mn tonnes. We see stronger long-term demand growth for poultry than for pork or beef owing to poultry's general affordability and reputation for better health benefits than red meat.

  • Cheese production growth to 2017/18: 8.8% to 2.2mn tonnes. Over the longer term, we expect consolidation in the dairy industry to allow producers to take advantage of rising quotas and export demand. We also believe the European Commission's decision to adopt new legislation allowing producers to collectively negotiate contracts with processors will improve the profitability of milk production, in turn supporting output.

  • 2015 real GDP growth: 0.7 % (up from 0.3% in 2014).

  • Consumer price inflation: 0.5% average in 2015 (flat on 2014).

  • BMI universe agribusiness market value: 1.7% year-on-year (y-o-y) increase to USD65.90bn in 2014/15.

Industry Developments

We expect grains production to decline in 2015/16 as global grain prices performed poorly in 2014. Wheat prices were weak over the 2015/16 planting season, which...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
10
Agribusiness
10
Industry Forecast
12
Dairy Outlook
12
Table: Milk Production & Consumption (France 2013-2018)
13
Table: Cheese Production & Consumption (France 2013-2018)
13
Table: Butter Production & Consumption (France 2013-2018)
13
Table: Milk Production & Consumption (France 2008-2013)
17
Table: Cheese Production & Consumption (France 2008-2013)
17
Table: Butter Production & Consumption (France 2008-2013)
18
Grains Outlook
19
Table: Wheat Production & Consumption (France 2013-2018)
20
Table: Corn Production & Consumption (France 2013-2018)
20
Table: Barley Production & Consumption (France 2013-2018)
20
Table: Wheat Production & Consumption (France 2008-2013)
22
Table: Corn Production & Consumption (France 2008-2013)
23
Table: Barley Production & Consumption (France 2008-2013)
23
Livestock Outlook
24
Table: Poultry Production & Consumption (France 2013-2018)
25
Table: Pork Production & Consumption (France 2013-2018)
25
Table: Beef & Veal Production & Consumption (France 2013-2018)
26
Table: Poultry Production & Consumption (France 2008-2013)
27
Table: Pork Production & Consumption (France 2008-2013)
27
Table: Beef & Veal Production & Consumption (France 2008-2013)
28
Commodities Price Analysis
29
Monthly Softs Strategy
29
Table: Select Commodities - Performance & BMI Forecasts
36
Monthly Grains Strategy
37
Table: Selected Commodities - Performance & BMI Forecasts
44
Upstream Analysis
45
Europe GM Outlook
45
Europe Machinery Outlook
51
Europe Fertiliser Outlook
57
Downstream Analysis
62
Food
62
Food Consumption
62
Table: Food Consumption Indicators - Historical Data & Forecasts (France 2011-2018)
63
Prepared Food/Canned Food
63
Confectionery
64
Table: Confectionery Value/Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts (France 2011-2018)
65
Drink
66
Hot Drinks
66
Table: Hot Drink Value/Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts (France 2013-2018)
67
Soft Drinks
68
Table: Soft Drinks Value/Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts (France 2013-2018)
69
Alcoholic Drinks
70
Table: Alcoholic Drinks Value/Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts (France 2013-2018)
72
Mass Grocery Retail
73
Table: Mass Grocery Retail Sales By Format - Historical Data & Forecasts (France 2013-2018)
74
Table: Grocery Retail Sales By Format
74
Regional Overview
75
Competitive Landscape
81
Table: Main Agribusiness Players
81
Demographic Forecast
82
Demographic Outlook
82
Table: France's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
83
Table: France's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
84
Table: France's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
85
Table: France's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
85
Methodology
86
Industry Forecast Methodology
86
Sector-Specific Methodology
87

The France Agribusiness Report features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s market assessment and independent forecasts for production, consumption and trade across core agricultural commodities.

BMI's France Agribusiness Report includes independent commodity price forecasting and analysis for key agricultural outputs, an overview of the agribusiness competitive landscape and a discussion of the downstream context of agricultural production in relation to country food consumption forecasts and composite food and beverage trade forecasts.

Key Benefits

  • Use BMI's independent industry forecasts to test other views - a key input for successful planning in dynamic agribusiness markets.
  • Apply BMI's medium-term commodity price analysis to assist with budgetary planning and the identification of investment opportunities and potential risks.
  • Assess the activities and market position of your competitors, partners and clients.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts and views, highlighting recent changes and key risks to the industry outlook.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the wider agricultural industry.

BMI Supply & Demand Forecasts

Divided into sections based on various diverse sectors in the agriculture market, the chapter provides insight into each market’s agricultural industry, centred on sector forecasts to end-2019 for the consumption, production and trade of key commodities.

  • Consumption Forecasts are accompanied by a discussion of the main drivers of consumption growth: macroeconomic factors, food processing trends, price movements and increasingly, demand from the non-food sector.
  • Production Forecasts examine the trends influencing BMI’s production outlook: global demand, price increases, public and private sector investment and agricultural efficiency improvements.
  • Trade Forecasts are accompanied by a discussion of the factors influencing a country’s trade in agricultural goods, including domestic demand, global prices and government trade policies.
  • BMI’s Forecasts are accompanied by a Risks-to-Outlook assessment, which examines potential factors that could affect our existing forecast picture and the likelihood of their occurrence.

BMI’s Commodity Price Analysis

Fundamental and technical analysis of the short- and medium-term price outlook for eight agricultural commodities based on globally recognised benchmarks.

Downstream Analysis

Analysis of headline food and drink forecasts, including total food consumption, per capita food consumption and total sector trade, which provide important downstream intelligence for primary agricultural producers.

Featured Analysis

Includes relevant articles from BMI’s daily analysis service. These can include long-term projections on agricultural imports and exports, our perceptions of the impacts of economic slowdown on key companies and subsectors within the Agribusiness industry in a given country, our analysis of fertilizer production as well as other relevant analysis of recent news and events.

Competitive landscape

The reports contain information on prominent companies operating in each market.

Key Commodities covered by the Agribusiness market Reports include:

Grains, Dairy, Livestock, Rice, Sugar, Palm Oil, Edible Oils, Coffee, Cocoa, Cotton, Soybean

Please note – not all Reports cover all commodities.

Sources

The Agribusiness Reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc