Business Monitor International


France Agribusiness Report

Published 23 April 2014

  • 95 pages
  • Instant access to your report online and PDF format through your account library
  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
 
$1,295.00
France Agribusiness Report

BMI View: We believe the grain s sector in France will continue to outperform other agribusiness segments in terms of production growth. This will be reinforced by the ongoing reforms of Common Agricultural Policy subsidies , which are likely to have more of an effect on dairy and livestock farmers than grain farmers. The agriculture minister's proposal to shift some EU subsidies from crop farmers to dairy or livestock farmers could support production growth in the latter, even though we do not see this as sufficient to turn around the current production trajectories of each sector. The meat industry will continue to suffer from recurring scandals linked to the presence of horsemeat on the beef market, which will generate downside risks to demand over the medium term.

Still Focused On Grains
France - BMI Market Value By Commodity (% of total)

Key Forecasts

  • Wheat production growth to 2017/18: 10.7% to 39.8mn tonnes. We expect wheat to remain the most profitable crop in the country and the one most in demand for domestic use and exports.

  • Poultry consumption growth to 2018: 4.9% to 1.7mn tonnes. We see stronger long-term demand growth for poultry than for pork or beef owing to poultry's general affordability and reputation for better health benefits than red meat.

  • Cheese production growth to 2017/18: 8.8% to 2.1mn tonnes. Over the longer term, we expect consolidation in the dairy industry to allow producers to take advantage of rising quotas and export demand. We also believe the European Commission's decision to adopt new legislation allowing producers to collectively negotiate contracts with processors will improve the profitability of milk production, in turn supporting output.

  • 2014 real GDP growth: 0.7 % (up from 0.2% in 2013).

  • Consumer price inflation: 1.5% average in 2014 (slightly up from 1.4% in 2013).

  • BMI universe agribusiness market value: 6.7% year-on-year (y-o-y) decrease to USD67.9bn in 2013/14.

Industry...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
10
Agribusiness
10
Business Environment
11
Industry Forecast
12
Dairy Outlook
12
Table: France Milk Production & Consumption, 2013-2018
13
Table: France Cheese Production & Consumption, 2013-2018
13
Table: France Butter Production & Consumption, 2013-2018
13
Table: France Milk Production & Consumption, 2008-2013
16
Table: France Cheese Production & Consumption, 2008-2013
17
Table: France Butter Production & Consumption, 2008-2013
17
Livestock Outlook
18
Table: France Poultry Production & Consumption, 2013-2018
19
Table: France Pork Production & Consumption, 2013-2018
19
Table: France Beef & Veal Production & Consumption, 2013-2018
19
Table: France Poultry Production & Consumption, 2008-2013
22
Table: France Pork Production & Consumption, 2008-2013
22
Table: France Beef & Veal Production & Consumption, 2008-2013
22
Grains Outlook
24
Table: France Wheat Production & Consumption, 2013-2018
25
Table: France Corn Production & Consumption, 2013-2018
25
Table: France Barley Production & Consumption, 2013-2018
25
Table: France Wheat Production & Consumption, 2008-2013
28
Table: France Corn Production & Consumption, 2008-2013
28
Table: France Barley Production & Consumption, 2008-2013
28
Commodities Price Analysis
30
Monthly Grains Update
30
Table: Select Commodities - Performance & Forecasts
38
Table: BMI Commodities Strategy
39
Monthly Softs Update
40
Table: Select Commodities - Performance & BMI Forecasts
50
Table: BMI Commodities Strategy
51
Upstream Analysis
52
Europe Machinery Outlook
52
Table: Deere & Company - Agriculture & Turf Sales Growth Forecasts By Region
58
Europe GM Outlook
59
Europe Fertiliser Outlook
64
Downstream Analysis
71
Food
71
Food Consumption
71
Table: Food Consumption - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018
71
Prepared Food/Canned Food
72
Table: Canned Food Value/Volume Sales - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018
72
Confectionery
73
Table: Confectionery Value/Volume Sales - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018
74
Drink
75
Hot Drinks
75
Table: Coffee/Tea Sales - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018
75
Soft Drinks
76
Table: Soft Drinks Value/Volume Sales - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018
76
Alcoholic Drinks
78
Table: Alcoholic Drinks Value/Volume Sales - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018
80
Mass Grocery Retail
81
Table: Mass Grocery Retail Sales - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018
82
Table: Grocery Retail Sales By Format
82
Regional Overview
83
Competitive Landscape
90
Table: Main Agribusiness Players
90
Demographic Forecast
91
Table: France's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
92
Table: France's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
93
Table: France's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
94
Table: France's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
94
Methodology
95
Industry Forecast Methodology
95
Sector-Specific Methodology
96

The France Agribusiness Report features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s market assessment and independent forecasts for production, consumption and trade across core agricultural commodities.

BMI's France Agribusiness Report includes independent commodity price forecasting and analysis for key agricultural outputs, an overview of the agribusiness competitive landscape and a discussion of the downstream context of agricultural production in relation to country food consumption forecasts and composite food and beverage trade forecasts.

Key Benefits

  • Use BMI's independent industry forecasts to test other views - a key input for successful planning in dynamic agribusiness markets.
  • Apply BMI's medium-term commodity price analysis to assist with budgetary planning and the identification of investment opportunities and potential risks.
  • Assess the activities and market position of your competitors, partners and clients.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

An analytical summary of BMI's latest key industry forecasts and views, highlighting recent changes and key risks to the industry outlook for agribusiness in France.

Industry SWOT Analysis

At-a-glance perspectives on the Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats facing the agricultural industry.

BMI Supply & Demand Forecasts

Divided into sections based on various diverse sectors in the agriculture market, the chapter provides insight into each market's agricultural industry, centred on sector forecasts to end-2018 for the consumption, production and trade of key agricultural commodities.

Consumption forecasts are accompanied by a discussion of the main drivers of consumption growth: macroeconomic factors, food processing trends, price movements and, increasingly, demand from the non-food sector.

Production forecasts examine the trends influencing BMI's production outlook: global demand, price increases, public and private sector investment and agricultural efficiency improvements.

Trade forecasts are accompanied by a discussion of the factors influencing a country's trade in agricultural goods, including domestic demand, global prices and government trade policies.

BMI's forecasts are accompanied by a Risks- to-Outlook assessment, which examines potential factors that could affect our existing forecast picture and the likelihood of their occurrence.

BMI's Commodity Price Analysis

Fundamental and technical analysis of the short- and medium-term price outlook for key agricultural commodities, based on globally-recognised benchmarks.

Downstream Analysis

Analysis of headline food and drink forecasts, including total food consumption, per capita food consumption and total sector trade, which provide important downstream intelligence for primary agricultural producers.

Featured Analysis

Includes relevant articles from BMI's daily analysis service. These can include long-term projections on agricultural imports and exports, our perceptions of the impacts of economic slowdown on key companies and subsectors within the Agribusiness industry in a given country, our analysis of fertilizer production as well as other relevant analysis of recent news and events on Store and Landing Pages.

Methodology & Sourcing

The France Agribusiness Report is based on an extensive network of multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc