Business Monitor International


France Agribusiness Report

Published 29 October 2014

  • 95 pages
  • Instant access to your report online and PDF format through your account library
  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
 
$1,295.00
France Agribusiness Report

BMI View: We believe the grain s sector in France will continue to outperform other agribusiness segments in terms of production growth. This will be reinforced by the ongoing reforms of Common Agricultural Policy subsidies ,   which are likely to have more of an effect on dairy and livestock farmers than grain farmers.

Agribusiness Market Value
BMI Market Value By Commodity (2010-2018)

Key Forecasts

  • Wheat production growth to 2017/18:  4.8 % to 4 0 .5mn tonnes. We expect wheat to remain one of the most profitable crop in the country and the one most in demand for domestic use and exports.  

  • Poultry consumption growth to 2018:  4. 9 % to 1.7mn tonnes. We see stronger long-term demand growth for poultry than for pork or beef owing to poultry's general affordability and reputation for better health benefits than red meat.

  • Cheese production growth to 2017/18:  8.8% to 2.1mn tonnes. Over the longer term, we expect consolidation in the dairy industry to allow producers to take advantage of rising quotas and export demand. We also believe the European Commission's decision to adopt new legislation allowing producers to collectively negotiate contracts with processors will improve the profitability of milk production, in turn supporting output.

  • 2014 real GDP growth:  0. 3 % (up from 0.2% in 2013).

  • Consumer price inflation: 0.8 % average in 2014 (slightly down from 1.0% in 2013).

  • BMI universe agribusiness market value: 6.8% year-on-year (y-o-y) decrease to USD66.0bn in 2013/14.

Industry Developments

Grains production will be relatively strong in France in 2014/15, owing to good yields over most of Europe. We forecast wheat production to increase 0.8% to reach 39.3mn tonnes. However, as is the case for much of Europe, unfavourable weather towards the end of the growing period has meant that a lot of the wheat in France is sub-quality for milling purposes. Exports of wheat will not be as high as initially expected, as...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Agribusiness
9
Business Environment
10
Industry Forecast
11
Dairy Outlook
11
Table: Milk Production & Consumption (France 2013-2018)
12
Table: Cheese Production & Consumption (France 2013-2018)
12
Table: Butter Production & Consumption (France 2013-2018)
12
Table: Milk Production & Consumption (France 2008-2013)
15
Table: Cheese Production & Consumption (France 2008-2013)
15
Livestock Outlook
17
Table: Poultry Production & Consumption (France 2013-2018)
18
Table: Pork Production & Consumption (France 2013-2018)
18
Table: Beef Production & Consumption (France 2013-2018)
18
Table: Poultry Production & Consumption (France 2008-2013)
22
Table: Pork Production & Consumption (France 2008-2013)
22
Table: Beef Production & Consumption (France 2008-2013)
22
Grains Outlook
24
Table: Wheat Production & Consumption (France 2013-2018)
25
Table: Corn Production & Consumption (France 2013-2018)
25
Table: Barley Production & Consumption (France 2013-2018)
25
Table: Wheat Production & Consumption (France 2008-2013)
29
Table: Corn Production & Consumption (France 2008-2013)
30
Table: Barley Production & Consumption (France 2008-2013)
30
Commodities Price Analysis
31
Monthly Grains Strategy
31
Table: Select Commodities - Performance & BMI Forecasts
39
Monthly Softs Strategy
39
Table: Select Commodities - Performance & BMI Forecasts
48
Upstream Analysis
49
Europe Machinery Outlook
49
Europe GM Outlook
54
Europe Fertiliser Outlook
61
Downstream Analysis
68
Food
68
Food Consumption
68
Table: Food Consumption - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018
68
Prepared Food/Canned Food
69
Table: Canned Food Value/Volume Sales - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018
69
Confectionery
70
Table: Confectionery Value/Volume Sales - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018
71
Drink
72
Hot Drinks
72
Table: Coffee &Tea Value/Volume Sales - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018
72
Soft Drinks
73
Table: Soft Drinks Value/Volume Sales - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018
73
Alcoholic Drinks
75
Table: Alcoholic Drinks Value/Volume Sales - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2013-2018
77
Mass Grocery Retail
78
Table: Mass Grocery Retail Forecasts
78
Table: Grocery Retail Sales By Format
79
Regional Overview
80
Competitive Landscape
86
Table: Main Agribusiness Players
86
Demographic Forecast
87
Table: France's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
88
Table: France's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
89
Table: France's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
90
Table: France's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
90
Methodology
91
Industry Forecast Methodology
91
Sector-Specific Methodology
92

The France Agribusiness Report features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s market assessment and independent forecasts for production, consumption and trade across core agricultural commodities.

BMI's France Agribusiness Report includes independent commodity price forecasting and analysis for key agricultural outputs, an overview of the agribusiness competitive landscape and a discussion of the downstream context of agricultural production in relation to country food consumption forecasts and composite food and beverage trade forecasts.

Key Benefits

  • Use BMI's independent industry forecasts to test other views - a key input for successful planning in dynamic agribusiness markets.
  • Apply BMI's medium-term commodity price analysis to assist with budgetary planning and the identification of investment opportunities and potential risks.
  • Assess the activities and market position of your competitors, partners and clients.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

An analytical summary of BMI's latest key industry forecasts and views, highlighting recent changes and key risks to the industry outlook for agribusiness in France.

Industry SWOT Analysis

At-a-glance perspectives on the Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats facing the agricultural industry.

BMI Supply & Demand Forecasts

Divided into sections based on various diverse sectors in the agriculture market, the chapter provides insight into each market's agricultural industry, centred on sector forecasts to end-2018 for the consumption, production and trade of key agricultural commodities.

Consumption forecasts are accompanied by a discussion of the main drivers of consumption growth: macroeconomic factors, food processing trends, price movements and, increasingly, demand from the non-food sector.

Production forecasts examine the trends influencing BMI's production outlook: global demand, price increases, public and private sector investment and agricultural efficiency improvements.

Trade forecasts are accompanied by a discussion of the factors influencing a country's trade in agricultural goods, including domestic demand, global prices and government trade policies.

BMI's forecasts are accompanied by a Risks- to-Outlook assessment, which examines potential factors that could affect our existing forecast picture and the likelihood of their occurrence.

BMI's Commodity Price Analysis

Fundamental and technical analysis of the short- and medium-term price outlook for key agricultural commodities, based on globally-recognised benchmarks.

Downstream Analysis

Analysis of headline food and drink forecasts, including total food consumption, per capita food consumption and total sector trade, which provide important downstream intelligence for primary agricultural producers.

Featured Analysis

Includes relevant articles from BMI's daily analysis service. These can include long-term projections on agricultural imports and exports, our perceptions of the impacts of economic slowdown on key companies and subsectors within the Agribusiness industry in a given country, our analysis of fertilizer production as well as other relevant analysis of recent news and events on Store and Landing Pages.

Methodology & Sourcing

The France Agribusiness Report is based on an extensive network of multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.

secure
Benefit from discounts when you add multiple products to your basket
2 Products SAVE 10%
3 Products SAVE 15%
4 Products SAVE 20%
5 Products SAVE 25%
6 Products SAVE 30%
7 - 20 Products SAVE 35%
21 Products or more SAVE 40%

Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc