Pub date: 29 Feb 2012 Europe / Albania Business Forecast Report
Core Views Albania's relatively low level of trade and financial integration with Western Europe will not protect its economy from the marked deterioration that has occurred in eurozone. Indeed, th... Read More
Pub date: 28 Mar 2012 Europe / Austria Business Forecast Report
Core Views After a robust showing in 2011, with growth at 3.1%, we forecast the Austrian economy to post significantly slower growth in 2012. We forecast real GDP growth at a mere 0.5% due to the w... Read More
Pub date: 28 Mar 2012 Europe / Belarus Business Forecast Report
Core Views Belarus will avoid recession this year owing to Russian financial support and positive trade dynamics. However, the country's mediumterm trajectory is beset by sizeable risks. While infl... Read More
Pub date: 02 May 2012 Europe / Belgium Business Forecast Report
Core Views Belgium has enjoyed a robust recovery following the global financial crisis but is heavily exposed to turmoil in the eurozone. A particular concern for the Belgian economy is its nationa... Read More
Pub date: 29 Feb 2012 Europe / Bosnia-Herzegovina Business Forecast Report
Core Views T he economy is showing signs of recovery, driven in large part by a resurgence in exports. T he ongoing political crisis is pushing back reforms and could start to weigh on investor co... Read More
Pub date: 02 May 2012 Europe / Bulgaria Business Forecast Report
Core Views We expect Bulgaria's economic growth to be weighed down by significantly weaker aggregate demand in the eurozone and persistent concerns over the eurozone debt crisis. We believe that th... Read More
Pub date: 02 May 2012 Europe / Georgia Business Forecast Report
Core Views Despite plenty of room for Armenia's economy to recover following one of the most severe recessions in the world in 2009, we see few signs to indicate that the higher-than-expected growt... Read More
Pub date: 02 May 2012 Europe / Croatia Business Forecast Report
Core Views The outlook for Croatia's economy in 2012 remains dour and we forecast a full-year contraction of 1.5% in real terms. A combination of dampened household consumption and the start of fis... Read More
Pub date: 29 Feb 2012 Europe / Cyprus Business Forecast Report
Core Views President Demetris Christofias faces a crucial few months as his government seeks a way out of a budget crisis and looks to resolve the ongoing ethnic conflict dividing the island. A slu... Read More
Pub date: 28 Mar 2012 Europe / Czech Republic Business Forecast Report
Core Views We expect weakened external demand to hit the Czech Republic's economic growth hard in 2012. The Czech economy remains highly dependent on exports and investments for economic growth, bo... Read More
Pub date: 29 Feb 2012 Europe / Denmark Business Forecast Report
Core Views O wing to a deteriorating external environment as well as homegrown problems in the banking and housing sectors, Denmark’s economic outlook has worsened signficantly in recent months. Wh... Read More
Pub date: 02 May 2012 Europe / Estonia Business Forecast Report
Core Views Estonia's economic growth will slow to 2.7% in 2012 in real GDP terms, from 7.6% in 2011. While this remains the strongest economic growth figure in the eurozone, the economy is not immu... Read More
Pub date: 02 May 2012 Europe / Finland Business Forecast Report
Core Views As we have previously highlighted, growth will slow in 2012 as wider eurozone growth softens and positive base effects fully recede. We have made further cuts to our Finland growth forec... Read More
Pub date: 02 May 2012 Europe / France Business Forecast Report
Core Views: France's economy is showing signs of a sharp economic slowdown in light of the deteriorating global macroeconomic backdrop, and while a return to recessionary conditions remains outside... Read More
Pub date: 02 May 2012 Europe / Germany Business Forecast Report
Core Views Germany's manufacturing base will remain weighed down by weak foreign orders, while the fragility surrounding the response to the eurozone debt crisis means business sentiment could take... Read More
Pub date: 28 Mar 2012 Europe / Greece Business Forecast Report
Core Views The Greek economy will remain mired in depression through 2012 as deep fiscal retrenchment and internal devaluation take a damaging toll. The prospect of further spending cuts and tax h... Read More
Pub date: 02 May 2012 Europe / Hungary Business Forecast Report
Core Views We still expect the Hungarian economy to contract in real GDP terms in 2012 despite the strong Q411 growth figure. All areas of the economy apart from the external sector will act as a d... Read More
Pub date: 28 Mar 2012 Europe / Iceland Business Forecast Report
Core Views We remain generally optimistic that Iceland's economy can pull itself out of its present malaise. However, there will be no return to the fast growth seen during the pre-crisis period. ... Read More
Pub date: 02 May 2012 Europe / Ireland Business Forecast Report
Core Views Ireland's economy will contract in 2012 as fiscal austerity, household deleveraging and a recession in Europe weigh on activity. We forecast real GDP to contract by 0.5% in 2012, followi... Read More
Pub date: 28 Mar 2012 Europe / Italy Business Forecast Report
Core Views The new technocratic government led by Mario Monti will embark on a last-ditch attempt to restructure the economy and consolidate the country's public finances. Measures that are likely ... Read More
Pub date: 29 Feb 2012 Europe / Uzbekistan Business Forecast Report
Core Views Kazakhstan will continue to enjoy robust economic growth through 2011 and 2012, underpinned by ongoing development of the nation’s vast natural resource base. We forecast real economic g... Read More
Pub date: 29 Feb 2012 Europe / Latvia Business Forecast Report
Core Views Following a snap election in September 2011 which saw a threeparty centre-right coalition come to power, we expect the Latvian government to remain stable in 2012. However, we highlight ... Read More
Pub date: 28 Mar 2012 Europe / Lithuania Business Forecast Report
Core Views Growing macroeconomic headwinds in Europe and the government's firm adherence to additional fiscal consolidation will see the Lithuanian economy come to a standstill in 2012. The already... Read More
Pub date: 28 Mar 2012 Europe / Macedonia Business Forecast Report
Core Views We believe that a full resolution to the name dispute with Greece is highly unlikely in the foreseeable future. The government is hoping for acceptance into NATO this year and a breakthr... Read More
Pub date: 29 Feb 2012 Europe / Mongolia Business Forecast Report
Core Views Mongolia’s current account deficit is alarmingly high on account of the country’s capital- and energy-intensive mining sector, as well as the growing appetite for foreign service imports... Read More
Pub date: 28 Mar 2012 Europe / Netherlands Business Forecast Report
Core Views T he Dutch economy's growth outlook is set to seriously deteriorate in the coming quarters, as the eurozone sovereign debt crisis massively weighs on economic activity and confidence lev... Read More
Pub date: 29 Feb 2012 Europe / Norway Business Forecast Report
Core Views N orway’s economy is heavily exposed to the ongoing and rapidly deepening debt crisis in the eurozone, which makes up the singlelargest market for Norwegian exports, particularly from th... Read More
Pub date: 29 Feb 2012 Europe / Poland Business Forecast Report
Core Views N otwithstanding an increasingly grim outlook for global growth in 2012, we maintain our relatively constructive view on the Polish economy. Underlying our 3.5% real GDP growth forecast ... Read More
Pub date: 28 Mar 2012 Europe / Portugal Business Forecast Report
Core Views Portugal is in the midst of a deep recession that will last until at least 2013. We do not see substantially higher growth beyond this. We are expecting contractions in real GDP of 3.6% ... Read More
Pub date: 28 Mar 2012 Europe / Romania Business Forecast Report
Core Views Romania's return to growth has so far been driven primarily by external demand for Romanian exports. As the eurozone sovereign debt crisis weighs heavily on this previous growth driver, ... Read More
Pub date: 29 Feb 2012 Europe / Russia Business Forecast Report
Core Views With so far little progress in containing the eurozone debt crisis, we are growing increasingly concerned about contagion spreading towards the wider banking sector in the region, and no... Read More
Pub date: 02 May 2012 Europe / Serbia Business Forecast Report
Core Views Regardless of who wins the May 6 parliamentary and presidential elections, the next government will have to contend with a large and widening fiscal deficit. We expect the next administr... Read More
Pub date: 29 Feb 2012 Europe / Slovakia Business Forecast Report
Core Views We continue to expect Slovakia’s economy to expand by 2.8% in real terms in 2011, largely driven by a continued strong export performance. We expect household consumption to recover marg... Read More
Pub date: 29 Feb 2012 Europe / Slovenia Business Forecast Report
Core Views The Slovenian economy faces myriad pressures over the medium term, namely a weak and still deleveraging private sector, less supportive trade dynamics on the back of the slowdown in the ... Read More
Pub date: 29 Feb 2012 Europe / Spain Business Forecast Report
Core Views The medium-term economic outlook for Spain has worsened considerably in recent months. While the domestic economy remains beset by high unemployment, falling house prices and severe fisc... Read More
Pub date: 28 Mar 2012 Europe / Sweden Business Forecast Report
Core Views Sweden's status as an open trade-oriented economy means that the ongoing European economic crisis poses significant downside risks to Swedish growth in 2012. Sweden is among the best po... Read More
Pub date: 02 May 2012 Europe / Switzerland Business Forecast Report
Core Views We have revised our 2012 forecast for Swiss real GDP growth. Following estimated 2011 growth of 1.9%, our significantly bleaker outlook for the global economy means we now forecast headl... Read More
Pub date: 28 Mar 2012 Europe / Turkey Business Forecast Report
Core Views We reiterate that Turkey's economy is set to undergo a sharp slowdown in 2012. A combination of weak external activity, poor economic confidence, tighter domestic policy, precarious bala... Read More
Pub date: 28 Mar 2012 Europe / Ukraine Business Forecast Report
Core Views Ukraine's economic recovery lost some momentum heading into the second quarter of 2011 and a deteriorating global growth outlook bodes poorly for the highly trade-integrated economy. We... Read More
Pub date: 02 May 2012 Europe / United Kingdom Business Forecast Report
Core Views The economy is recovering, but with fiscal cuts looming and unemployment stubbornly high, the rate of growth will be fairly tepid. Given the marked slowdown in domestic and global econom... Read More
Pub date: 15 Mar 2010 Global Special Report
The report examines the main threats to amicable China-US relations, and outlines three scenarios for the coming decade.... Read More
Pub date: 04 Feb 2010 Global Special Report
EM To Outperform After years of progress on regulatory reform, macroeconomic restructuring and institutional convergence following the painful events of the Asian and Russian c... Read More
Pub date: 04 Jan 2012 Global / Europe Special Report
The report provides you with the best of BMI's analysis from 2011 on the eurozone's economic and political outlook, in order to help you assess the potential risks faced by the region as a whole and k... Read More
Pub date: 14 Feb 2011 Global Special Report
The Challenge Of Rising Commodity Prices A combination of improving economic growth, loose monetary policy, and supply-side considerations from tight commodity markets is boosting consumer prices ... Read More
Pub date: 18 Mar 2011 Global Special Report
A Country In Crisis The Worst Disaster Since World War ll Japanese Prime Minister Naoto Kan has described the March 11 devastating earthquake and its aftermath as the country's worst disaster ... Read More
Pub date: 11 Aug 2011 Global Special Report
Economic growth in the US, Japan and the eurozone is faltering, putting the global economy on the verge of another recession. In this special report, Business Monitor International (BMI) assesses the ... Read More
Pub date: 07 Mar 2012 Global Special Report
BMI View: Poor visibility on global macro prospects suggests that a purely top down approach could be insufficient in unearthing investment opportunities in 2012. In this article, we outline the ... Read More
Pub date: 13 Dec 2011 Global / North America Special Report
BMI examines the outlook for global private consumption over the next 10 years, and picks key emerging market and industry outperformers.... Read More
Pub date: 04 Nov 2011 Europe / Turkey Special Report
Turkey is in the midst of a profound transformation in its strategic outlook, which is manifesting itself in increasingly assertive behaviour in the Middle East and Eastern Mediterranean, and gro... Read More
Pub date: 06 Jul 2011 Global Special Report
Executive Summary Where Next For The World Economy? Risks And Scenarios For The Recovery The risks to the global economy are mounting, following the earthquake and tsunami in Japan in March and... Read More
Pub date: 18 Jan 2011 Global Special Report
The global economic healing process is gaining momentum, and while risks abound as ever, we expect 2011 to herald a broadening and deepening phase of the recovery. Emerging markets are again set to... Read More
Pub date: 03 May 2012 Europe Regional Monitor
Central Europe Monitor each month provides country-by-country analyses, ratings and forecasts covering political risk, economic performance, key industries, finance and the business environment... Read More
Pub date: 03 May 2012 Europe Regional Monitor
Russia and CIS Monitor each month provides country-by-country analyses, ratings and forecasts covering political risk, economic performance, key industries, finance and the business environment... Read More
Pub date: 09 May 2012 Europe Regional Monitor
South East Europe Monitor each month provides country-by-country analyses, ratings and forecasts covering political risk, economic performance, key industries, finance and the business environment for... Read More
Pub date: 18 May 2012 Global Regional Monitor
Emerging Markets Monitor provides weekly analyses, forecasts and ratings on fixed income, foreign exchange, commodities, bonds, equities and funds across global markets, all backed by Business Monito... Read More
Pub date: 02 May 2012 Global Regional Monitor
Coverage includes BMI's Country Risk and Financial Markets team's global outlook, with unrivalled coverage of developed states, as well as key regional and country-by-country stories of emerging state... Read More
Pub date: 28 Mar 2012 Europe / Austria Commercial Banking Industry Report
Financial conditions in the eurozone have improved markedly over recent months thanks to the European Central Bank (ECB)'s long-term refinancing operation in December 2011 and February 2012. The pro... Read More
Pub date: 12 Apr 2012 Europe / Austria Metals Industry Report
Austria will not escape the effects of the eurozone debt crisis and its effects on downstream industries, notably the automotive industry, and BMI's Austria Metals Report anticipates a downturn in st... Read More
Pub date: 10 Apr 2012 Europe / Austria Telecommunications Industry Report
The Q212 update to BMI's Austria Telecommunications Report includes analysis trends in the country's mobile, fixed-line and broadband markets. In doing so it draws on data and analysis of the perform... Read More
Pub date: 22 Mar 2012 Europe / Azerbaijan Oil & Gas Industry Report
BMI View: Project delays remain the key threat to an Azeri energy sector capable of delivering much greater volumes and revenues. Gas export issues involving pipeline routes and other quasi-political... Read More
Pub date: 18 May 2012 Europe / Azerbaijan Petrochemicals Industry Report
In 2011, petrochemicals and downstream industries reported stellar growth as the industry enjoyed an influx of fresh investment and strong demand. In the first 10 months of 2011, Azerbaijan’s industr... Read More
Pub date: 23 Dec 2011 Europe / Belarus Defence & Security Industry Report
In 2011 BMI estimates that the Belarusian government will have a defence expenditure of US$692mn. This is down significantly by 22% on 2010’s figure of US$886mn, as the Belarusian government cuts de... Read More
Pub date: 04 Apr 2012 Europe / Belarus Food & Drink Industry Report
As we previously noted, the consumer outlook for Belarus will remain extremely challenging, with inflation expected to skyrocket. As imported goods become more and more expensive, consumers will mos... Read More
Pub date: 19 Apr 2012 Europe / Belarus Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Industry Report
BMI View: We continue to believe the Belarusian pharmaceutical market has long-term potential due to the country's favourable geographic position, demographic profile and low per capita spending. No... Read More
Pub date: 13 Jan 2012 Europe / Belarus Telecommunications Industry Report
BMI has introduced a new quarterly format for reporting on developments in Belarus' telecommunications market. Our 2012 report contains revised and extended forecasts that predict how the country's ... Read More
Pub date: 09 Mar 2012 Europe / Belgium Freight Transport Industry Report
Following a year of estimated growth in all freight modes, BMI forecasts further expansion in 2012, with the country's largest maritime facility, the Port of Antwerp, expected to return to pre-downtu... Read More
Pub date: 12 Apr 2012 Europe / Belgium Metals Industry Report
The Belgian steel industry is set for a poor year with a sharp downturn in external demand leading to the closure of domestic production capacity, according to BMI's latest Belgium Metals Report. In... Read More
Pub date: 13 Apr 2012 Europe / Belgium Oil & Gas Industry Report
BMI View: Subdued oil demand growth means the prospects for refiners and fuels distributors - which are already facing strong competition and a need to maintain investment for environmental reasons -... Read More
Pub date: 12 Dec 2011 Europe / Belgium Petrochemicals Industry Report
While Belgium is by no means the worst positioned economy in Europe, weakening external demand on the back of fiscal austerity throughout the continent over forthcoming years, in addition to spending... Read More
Pub date: 02 Mar 2012 Europe / Belgium Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Industry Report
BMI View: Belgium, much like most of the other regional markets, is expected to post negative year-onyear (y-o-y) value growth in its 2012 pharmaceutical sales because of patent expirations and the ... Read More
Pub date: 18 May 2012 Europe / Belgium Telecommunications Industry Report
In the period to September 2011, Belgium's mobile and broadband internet markets recovered some of the momentum lost in the first half of the year. In the case of broadband, however, it was mobile br... Read More
Pub date: 28 Mar 2012 Europe / Bosnia-Herzegovina Commercial Banking Industry Report
BMI View: The Bosnian banking sector posted robust growth in 2011 and is set for further expansion in 2012. This coalesces with our fairly upbeat longer-term view predicated on expansion in the indus... Read More
Pub date: 09 Jan 2012 Europe / Bosnia-Herzegovina Defence & Security Industry Report
Bosnia is still without a government, despite parliamentary elections having taken place in October 2011,with the country showing few promising signs of resolving the stalemate. This in turn has resu... Read More
Pub date: 03 Apr 2012 Europe / Bosnia-Herzegovina Infrastructure Industry Report
BMI View: A highly uncertain political set-up and vulnerability to the eurozone debt crisis are likely to act as major dampeners for solid growth in Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH)'s construction activi... Read More
Pub date: 03 Apr 2012 Europe / Bosnia-Herzegovina Real Estate Industry Report
Bosnia & Herzegovina (BiH) officially came out of its recession towards the end of 2010. The impetus came largely from strong growth in demand from the country's main trading neighbours, most of whic... Read More
Pub date: 16 Feb 2012 Europe / Bosnia-Herzegovina Telecommunications Industry Report
BMI's Q2 2012 report on the telecoms market of Bosnia & Herzegovina includes analyses of the country's mobile, fixed-line and broadband subscriber markets. It also forecasts growth in the number of i... Read More
Pub date: 16 Mar 2012 Europe / Bulgaria Autos Industry Report
BMI foresees new auto sales of 24,037 in Bulgaria over the course of 2012, which will represent yearly growth of 3.83%. However, this is unlikely to be totally filled with domestic produce. It seems ... Read More
Pub date: 15 Mar 2012 Europe / Bulgaria Commercial Banking Industry Report
BMI View: The Bulgarian banking sector remains at risk from the ongoing eurozone sovereign debt crisis, given its high exposure to Europe's periphery. We expect the banking industry's recovery to rem... Read More
Pub date: 14 May 2012 Europe / Bulgaria Consumer Electronics Industry Report
BMI expects difficult trading conditions to persist in many segments of Bulgaria's consumer electronics market in 2012. The deterioration in the external environment and persistent concerns regarding... Read More
Pub date: 25 Apr 2012 Europe / Bulgaria Defence & Security Industry Report
The government of Bulgaria remains focused on an armed forces modernisation initiative, which was launched to enhance compatibility with NATO, and to re-orientate these forces away from their former ... Read More
Pub date: 30 Mar 2012 Europe / Bulgaria Food & Drink Industry Report
The Bulgarian consumer outlook will remain challenging over the short- to medium-term at least. Issues such as economic difficulties - largely caused by the slowdown in its main export partners - and... Read More
Pub date: 20 Dec 2011 Europe / Bulgaria Freight Transport Industry Report
BMI View The rail freight sector is going to lead the way in terms of Bulgaria's year-on-year (y-o-y) growth prospects by sector, increasing by an impressive 7.78% in 2012 to average 7.21% average a... Read More
Pub date: 03 Feb 2012 Europe / Bulgaria Information Technology Industry Report
The total size of the Bulgarian IT market in 2012 is estimated by BMI at around US$1.1bn, up from US$1.0bn in 2011. BMI expects a market CAGR of 5% for 2012-2016, below the pre-economic crisis trend... Read More
Pub date: 04 Apr 2012 Europe / Bulgaria Infrastructure Industry Report
BMI View: Sitting on the outskirts of the EU, Bulgaria's investment environment has been badly dented by lack of confidence in the wake of the eurozone crisis. Reticence from the private sector, comb... Read More
Pub date: 02 Mar 2012 Europe / Bulgaria Insurance Industry Report
Key Insights And Key Risks As of late January 2012, the latest data that has been published by Bulgaria's insurance regulator continues to portray a market that is small, stagnant (at best), fragmen... Read More
Pub date: 22 Jul 2011 Europe / Bulgaria Mining Industry Report
Bulgaria’s mining industry grew slightly faster than the country’s economy in 2010, as both continued to emerge from deep contractions. Europe’s poorest country by GDP per capita has a relatively sma... Read More
Pub date: 15 May 2012 Europe / Bulgaria Oil & Gas Industry Report
BMI View: Infighting between local authorities and key refinery operator Lukoil hardly bodes well for the downstream oil segment, while upstream prospects rest on early and significant success at Bla... Read More
Pub date: 09 Dec 2011 Europe / Bulgaria Petrochemicals Industry Report
The future of downstream petrochemicals operations is dependent on continuing operations at Lukoil’s Burgas refinery, which is the subject of a dispute with the government over taxation and anti-trus... Read More
Pub date: 02 Mar 2012 Europe / Bulgaria Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Industry Report
BMI View: Bulgaria's pharmaceutical market will be under some pressure in 2012 due to a weakening economic outlook and the tightening of publicly funded healthcare services. However, we have broadly ... Read More
Pub date: 16 Mar 2012 Europe / Bulgaria Real Estate Industry Report
Real GDP flash estimates released by statistics agencies across Central and South Eastern European countries largely confirm our expectations for a general slowdown in economic activity across emergi... Read More
Pub date: 17 Feb 2012 Europe / Bulgaria Retail Industry Report
The Q112 BMI Bulgaria Retail Report forecasts that the country’s total retail sales will grow from an estimated BGN14.54bn (US$10.89bn) in 2011 to BGN17.69bn (US$13.26bn) in 2015. Key factors behind... Read More
Pub date: 28 Mar 2012 Europe / Bulgaria Shipping Industry Report
BMI View Over the mid term to 2016, average year-on-year (y-o-y) total tonnage growth is expected to be a steady if unimpressive 3.57%, reaching a total of 11mn tonnes by the end of our forecast per... Read More
Pub date: 04 May 2012 Europe / Bulgaria Telecommunications Industry Report
The ongoing sale of the incumbent Bulgarian Telecommunications Company (Vivacom) is the major development in the Bulgarian market in the past quarter. At the time of writing, negotiations for the sal... Read More
Pub date: 31 Oct 2011 Europe / Bulgaria Tourism Industry Report
Tourism Overview Over the first eight months of 2011, Bulgaria welcomed 6,378,465 visitors, according to figures released by the National Statistical Institute (NSI). This was an increase of just ov... Read More
Pub date: 10 Jan 2012 Europe / Croatia Autos Industry Report
Croatia’s new vehicle sales market has witnessed something of a rebirth in 2011, after two consecutive years of heavy decline. Indeed, after plunging 53.1% year-on-year (y-o-y) in 2009 to fewer than ... Read More
Pub date: 02 Mar 2012 Europe / Croatia Commercial Banking Industry Report
BMI View: The Croatian banking sector is facing a number of monumental risks to its stability given a high degree of reliance on external funding, especially from Italy, France and Austria, which thr... Read More
Pub date: 22 Mar 2012 Europe / Croatia Consumer Electronics Industry Report
Croatia's domestic consumer electronics devices market, defined as the addressable market for computing devices, mobile handsets and AV products, is projected to be worth around US$1.1bn in 2012. Dem... Read More
Pub date: 18 May 2012 Europe / Croatia Defence & Security Industry Report
In terms of the main defence and security issues, Croatia has much in common with other countries in south eastern Europe. An aspirant member of the European Union (which BMI expects Croatia to join ... Read More
Pub date: 18 May 2012 Europe / Croatia Food & Drink Industry Report
With Croatian consumers still facing high unemployment and relatively weak credit growth – in tandem with an increasingly poor economic outlook – we see little scope for improvement in the consumer ... Read More
Pub date: 04 Jan 2012 Europe / Croatia Freight Transport Industry Report
Following a year in which BMI believes there were increasing volumes, 2012 will signal further growth in all freight modes, albeit only marginal in most of them. Total trade is projected to contract... Read More