Business Monitor International


Estonia Telecommunications Report

Published 11 November 2013

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Estonia Telecommunications Report

BMI View: We have mixed views with respect to the E stonian telecoms market. On one hand, it is one of the region's most developed broadband economies, with large strides having been made in the rollout of next-generation access technologies such as fibre and mobile broadband, However, it is also a very small market and operators have few organic growth opportunities before them, pushing them into aggressive price competition and pre- to postpaid migration strategies that have yet to deliver enhanced revenue-creation. There are few alternative operators actively challenging incumbent Elion on anything other than the mobile services front and the government continues to wield undue influence over the market through policy-making, regulatory and service provider bodies. The European Commission is understandably alarmed. That said, as Estonian real private final consumption growth continues to outstrip most other countries in the region, the country continues to appeal to opportunistic investors and we expect consolidation in the fragmented cable sector soon .

Key Data

Second-ranked mobile network operator Elisa Eesti generally outperforms rivals EMT and Tele2 in terms of subscriber acquisitions, but the challenging environment and EMT's ability to leverage its parent's fixed broadband assets for bundled products means the market leader will continue to dominate with its 45% market share. The mobile subscription base grew by 5.7% to 1.952mn in the year to June 2013.

New regulatory data confirm that broadband subscriptions are driving market growth, with the number of accesses growing by 9.0% to 537,500 during 2012 (latest data). Within this market, fibre (+19.3%) and mobile broadband (+45.1%) are the fastest-growing components.

Recent Developments

During the first nine months of 2013 EMT and Elisa Eesti secured 800MHz spectrum from the Estonian authorities, enabling them to reach into rural and underserved regions with their nascent 4G LTE mobile...

Table of Contents

Executive Summary
5
SWOT Analysis
6
Estonia Wireless SWOT Analysis
6
Estonia Wireline SWOT Analysis
6
Estonia Political SWOT
7
Estonia Economic SWOT
8
Estonia Business Environment SWOT
8
Business Environment Analysis
9
Central And Eastern Europe
9
Central And Eastern Europe Risk/Reward Ratings, Q113
12
Estonia
13
Industry Forecast Scenario
15
Mobile
15
Table: Estonian Mobile Telecoms Sector - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017
15
ARPU
17
Table: Telecoms Sector - Mobile ARPU - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017, (EUR)
17
Fixed Line
19
Table: Telecoms Sector - Fixed Line - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017
19
Internet
20
Table: Estonian Telecoms Sector - Internet - Historical Data & Forecasts , 2010-2017
20
Market Overview
22
Mobile
22
Regional Perspective
22
Table: Estonia Mobile Market Regional Comparisons, 2011
22
Key Developments
23
Mobile Growth
24
Market Share And Net Additions
25
Table: Subscriber Net Additions, Q211-Q212 (-000)
25
Table: Estonia Mobile Subscribers Q211-Q212 (-000)
26
Subscription Mix
27
Usage (ARPU/MOU)
28
Networks
29
Mobile Content/Value Added Services
31
Value-Added Services Timeline
32
Table: Selected VAS Services
32
Mobile Contract Wins
34
Table: Mobile Contract Wins
34
Mobile Operator Data
35
Table: Estonia Mobile Market, 2010-2012
35
Table: EMT Estonia
35
Table: Elisa Eesti
36
Table: Tele2 Estonia
37
Regional Mobile Content
38
Fixed Line
42
Internet
45
Table: Wireline Developments
50
Industry Trends & Developments
51
Regulatory Environment
53
Estonia: Regulatory Bodies And Their Responsibilities
53
Legislation And Market Liberalisation
54
Regulatory Developments
56
Competitive Landscape
57
Key Players
57
Table: Estonia Telecoms Sector Key Players
57
Table: Selected Operators Financial Indicators
57
Operator Profiles
58
Elion Enterprises
58
Eesti Mobilitelefon (EMT)
63
Tele2 Estonia
67
Elisa Eesti
70
Starman
73
Company Monitor
78
Vendor Profile
78
Table: Revenue By Business Segment (HRK '000)
78
Table: Revenue By Geography (HRKmn)
79
Key Contracts, 2011-2012
82
Demographic Data
83
Estonia's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
84
Estonia's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
85
Estonia's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
86
Estonia's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
86
Glossary Of Terms
87
Table: Glossary Of Terms
87
BMI Methodology
89
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
89
Table: Key Indicators For Telecommunications Industry Forecasts
89
Telecoms Business Environment Ratings
91
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
91
Table: Ratings Indicators
92
Weighting
93
Table: Weighting Of Indicators
93
Sources
93

The Estonia Telecommunications Report features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s independent industry forecasts on the future strength of Estonia's ICT market, covering the fixed-line, mobile and internet segments and analyses latest regulatory developments and corporate news, including investment activity, mergers and acquisitions, joint ventures and partnerships. Leading operators and manufacturers are fully profiled, highlighting their quarterly financial performance, capital expenditure plans and latest contracts.

BMI's Estonia Telecommunications Report provides industry professionals and researchers, operators, equipment suppliers and vendors, corporate and financial services analysts and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the telecoms industry in Estonia.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent telecoms industry forecasts for Estonia to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Estonian telecoms market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in Estonia's telecoms sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Estonia.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity).

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts and views, covering the ICT, fixed-line, mobile (including 3G), internet and broadband markets.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the wireline and wireless sectors and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

Business Environment Ratings

BMI's Telecommunications Business Environment Ratings provides a country-comparative Risk-Reward Ratings index aimed at investors (vendors, operators and suppliers) in the regional telecoms market.

The ratings methodology makes sophisticated use of more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points.

BMI Industry Forecast Scenario

Historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry indicators (see list below) supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast.

  • Fixed-Line Telephony - Telephone lines ('000); telephone lines/100 inhabitants.
  • Cellular Telephony - Mobile phone subscribers ('000); mobile phone subscribers/100 inhabitants; mobile phone subscribers/100 fixed line subscribers.
  • Internet Markets - Internet users ('000); internet users/100 inhabitants; broadband internet subscribers ('000); broadband internet subscribers/100 inhabitants.

Market Data Analysis

Detailed market analysis of the mobile, mobile content, fixed line and internet segments, broken down into:

  • Market Data - Analysis of market size, operator shares, dominant trends, competitive landscape and key quarterly data.
  • Technology/Service Rollout - Analysis of rollout/adoption of new technology, such as 3G, WiMAX, IPTV, pay-TV, LTE and value-added handset services (gaming, music, video, apps etc.).
  • Mobile Content - The latest trends in content and services available and being introduced by mobile operators. Including a timeline of all the latest major mobile content developments.
  • Company Database - A comprehensive breakdown of KPIs of the leading mobile operators, including subscriber figures by type (pre-paid and post-paid); 3G subscriber figures; net additions; market share; ARPU; churn rates; minutes of use; voice and non-voice revenue; financial figures (including operating revenues, net profits and EBITDA).

Regulatory Environment

Details of the regulatory bodies and their responsibilities, as well as a special focus on the rules surrounding competition and interconnection. The latest updates in the market's development and regulatory rulings.

Company Profiles

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses.

The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc