Business Monitor International


Estonia Shipping Report

Published 25 March 2014

  • 117 pages
 
$1,295.00
Estonia Shipping Report

Recovery More U-shaped than V-shaped

In our last quarterly report, we spoke of a V-shaped recovery in Estonia. Three months on, we are less optimistic: it is beginning to look more U-shaped. If 2013 was the bottom of the cycle, with GDP growth of only 0.8%, we are less convinced there will be a sharp acceleration this year. We are now forecasting 2014 growth of 2.0% (down from a predicted 3.2% last quarter). Various factors explain this downward revision. The Estonian economy is very open, and the export led recovery is proving to be more sluggish than hoped. While strong external demand has yet to make itself felt, domestic consumption is filling the gap, supporting a rather more modest growth curve. The speed of the recovery has also been held back by a couple of one-off factors. One is the conclusion of a public investment programme supported by European union structural funds. Another is the diversion of Russian transit oil flows away from Estonian ports, a process which began in 2011 and which we believe is now bottoming out. Investment will make a positive contribution to 2014 growth, although it will remain relatively small. We are more optimistic for 2015, when we see GDP growth beginning to pick up pace with expansion of 3.3%.

In the ports and shipping sector, as mentioned, competition from the new Russian Baltic port of Ust-Luga has been a negative for Estonia's port of Tallinn. But oil shipments have stopped contracting and Russian transit trade needs have recently been growing faster than its Baltic port capacity, meaning there will still be business for Tallinn. Throughput at the Estonian port fell by an estimated 4.2% in 2013 and, we now expect it to register small but positive growth in 2014. The port authorities have claimed that a policy of diversification will eventually begin to pay off: we expect moderate growth in container activity levels in 2014.

Headline Industry Data

  • Port of Tallinn gross tonnage set to grow by 1.0%, to 28.529mn tonnes...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
5
SWOT
8
Shipping
8
Political
9
Economic
10
Business Environment
11
Industry Forecast
12
Port Of Tallinn Throughput
12
Table: Major Port Data (2011-2018)
17
Table: Trade Overview (Estonia 2011-2018)
17
Table: Key Trade Indicators (Estonia 2011-2018)
17
Table: Top Import Partners, 2004-2012
19
Table: Top Export Destinations 2004-2012
20
Market Overview
21
Estonia Container Shipping Market Overview
21
Industry Trends And Developments
35
Shipping - Global Industry View
38
Container Demand:
38
Container Supply:
45
Container Rates:
51
Global Company Strategy
55
Maersk Line
55
Mediterranean Shipping Company (MSC)
68
CMA CGM
73
Evergreen Line
83
COSCO Container Lines Company (COSCON)
90
Macroeconomic Forecasts
97
Economic Analysis
97
Table: Estonia - GDP By Expenditure
104
Demographic Forecast
105
Estonia
105
Table: Estonia's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
106
Table: Estonia's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
107
Table: Estonia's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
108
Table: Estonia's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
108

The Estonia Shipping Report has been researched at source and features latest-available data and Business Monitor International (BMI)'s independent forecasting, critically analysing international transport of dry bulk and containers. The report evaluates the global commodities and trade backdrop, alongside in-depth country-specific analysis of trade prospects. The report also contains company profiles covering leading multinational and national shipping companies and analysis of latest industry news, trends and regulatory developments in Estonia.

BMI's Estonia Shipping Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, business investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the shipping industry in Estonia.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent shipping industry forecasts for Estonia to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Estonian shipping market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in Estonia through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments.
  • Exploit the latest competitive intelligence and company SWOTS on your competitors and peers including multinational and national companies.

Coverage

Executive Summary

Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis covering shipping, major investments and projects and significant multinational and national company developments.

SWOT Analysis

SWOT (Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats) analysis of the state's shipping sector, which carefully evaluates the short- and medium-term issues facing the industry.

Market Overview

Analysis of the capacity, terminals and planned development of the major ports in each country, including data on throughput and total tonnage.

Industry Forecast Scenario

Historic data series (2008-2012) and forecasts to end-2017 for all key industry and macroeconomic indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:

Major port freight throughput (tonnes/teu); overall freight throughput (teu); total imports (US$bn) and exports (US$bn).

Company Profiles

Company profiles include business activities, leading products and services, company strategy, trends and developments and economic performance analysis.

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