Business Monitor International

Estonia Shipping Report

Published 25 March 2014

  • 117 pages
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Estonia Shipping Report

V-Shaped Recovery Taking Shape In Estonia

Based on developments and data over the last three months, we have further reduced our estimate for Estonian GDP growth in 2013, but we have boosted the outlook for 2014. In a nutshell, we believe Estonia is experiencing a V-like recession and recovery, and is well on its way to achieving good rates of expansion this year. We now estimate that GDP growth slowed to 0.8% in 2013 (down from 1.9% previously), and are predicting expansion of 3.2% in 2014 (no change) and 3.4% in 2015 (was 3.0%). In our view domestic consumption levels, which have been resilient in recent years, will continue quite strong as a result of low unemployment, low inflation, and progressive household debt deleveraging since the 2009 crisis. Taken together these factors will provide good support for domestic private consumption. The difference between 2013 and 2014 will be provided by exports: last year Estonia's main trading partners (the Nordics, the Baltics, and Russia) experienced sluggish growth but this year they will do better. We now expect real export growth of 6% (although imports will grow a marginally faster 6.2% because of the strength of the domestic market.

In the ports and shipping sector, competition from the new Russian Baltic port of Ust-Luga continues to be a negative for Estonia's port of Tallinn. That said, oil shipments have stopped contracting and Ust-Luga's chief executive has maintained that Russian transit trade needs are growing faster than its Baltic port capacity, meaning there will still be business for Tallinn. Throughput at the Estonian port fell by an estimated 4.2% in 2013 and, we now expect it to register small but positive growth in 2014. The port authorities have claimed that a policy of diversification will eventually begin to pay off: certainly, container activity levels are set to remain strong, with double-digit percentage growth in 2014.

Headline Industry Data

  • Port of Tallinn gross tonnage set to grow...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
Business Environment
Industry Forecast
Port Of Tallinn Throughput
Table: Major Port Data, 2011-2018
Table: Trade Overview, 2011-2018
Table: Key Trade Indicators, 2011-2018
Table: Top Import Partners, 2004-2012
Table: Top Export Destinations 2004-2012
Market Overview
Estonia Container Shipping Market Overview
Industry Trends And Developments
Shipping - Global Industry View
Container Demand: Growth Outlook To Bolster 2014 Box Volumes
Container Supply: Overcapacity To Remain An Issue In 2014
Container Rates: Volatile As Demand Ticks Up, But Oversupply Remains
Table: Shipping Lines' Agents Offices Raided In Russia
Global Company Strategy
Maersk Line
Mediterranean Shipping Company
Evergreen Line
COSCO Container Lines Company
Macroeconomic Forecasts
Economic Analysis
Table: Estonia - GDP By Expenditure, Real Growth %
Demographic Forecast
Table: Estonia's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
Table: Estonia's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
Table: Estonia's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
Table: Estonia's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020

The Estonia Shipping Report has been researched at source and features latest-available data and Business Monitor International (BMI)'s independent forecasting, critically analysing international transport of dry bulk and containers. The report evaluates the global commodities and trade backdrop, alongside in-depth country-specific analysis of trade prospects. The report also contains company profiles covering leading multinational and national shipping companies and analysis of latest industry news, trends and regulatory developments in Estonia.

BMI's Estonia Shipping Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, business investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the shipping industry in Estonia.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent shipping industry forecasts for Estonia to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Estonian shipping market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in Estonia through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments.
  • Exploit the latest competitive intelligence and company SWOTS on your competitors and peers including multinational and national companies.


Executive Summary

Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis covering shipping, major investments and projects and significant multinational and national company developments.

SWOT Analysis

SWOT (Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats) analysis of the state's shipping sector, which carefully evaluates the short- and medium-term issues facing the industry.

Market Overview

Analysis of the capacity, terminals and planned development of the major ports in each country, including data on throughput and total tonnage.

Industry Forecast Scenario

Historic data series (2008-2012) and forecasts to end-2017 for all key industry and macroeconomic indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:

Major port freight throughput (tonnes/teu); overall freight throughput (teu); total imports (US$bn) and exports (US$bn).

Company Profiles

Company profiles include business activities, leading products and services, company strategy, trends and developments and economic performance analysis.

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'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc