Moderate Growth Expected For Tallinn In 2015
Competition from the new Russian Baltic port of Ust-Luga remains a continuing negative for Estonia's Tallinn port. But despite the initial setback on this front, Tallinn has been recovering and diversifying its business. In 2015 tonnage at the Estonian port is expected to register its second year of low growth after big contractions in 2012 and 2013 when Ust-Luga first began operations. In contrast, we expect stronger growth in container activity levels to be achieved in 2015.
BMI is positive about the economic outlook for Estonia. While there are doubts about the strength of the Eurozone recovery and relations with Russia, we believe that rising domestic demand will more than offset lower export growth. Following a recent revision of the country's national account data that raised GDP growth in 2013, we now predict 2.8% expansion in 2015 rising to 3.1% in 2016. The real motor for this will be strong private consumption, which has recently been helped by nominal wage growth and a short period of consumer price deflation. Together these two things delivered a strong boost to purchasing power. The parliamentary elections due in March 2015 may also prompt the normally austere Reform Party, which leads the government, to allow an increase in social expenditure, which will be growth-positive.
Headline Industry Data
The port of Tallinn's gross tonnage is set to grow by 1.2%, to 28.9mn tonnes in 2015, following estimated growth of 1.1% in 2014.
Box traffic at Tallinn to grow by 4.3%, to 275,172 twenty-foot equivalent units (TEUs) in 2015 - slightly up on the 4.0% growth estimated for 2014.
Estonian foreign trade to gain 4.1% in real terms in 2015, after 2.1% growth estimated in 2014.
Import growth will lead with 4.2% expansion, fractionally ahead of exports, which will be up by 3.9%.
Key Industry Trends
New Container Terminal A t Sillamäe Port: A new container terminal at the Estonian port of Sillamäe...
The Estonia Shipping Report has been researched at source and features latest-available data and Business Monitor International (BMI)'s independent forecasting, critically analysing international transport of dry bulk and containers. The report evaluates the global commodities and trade backdrop, alongside in-depth country-specific analysis of trade prospects. The report also contains company profiles covering leading multinational and national shipping companies and analysis of latest industry news, trends and regulatory developments in Estonia.
BMI's Estonia Shipping Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, business investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the shipping industry in Estonia.
- Benchmark BMI's independent shipping industry forecasts for Estonia to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Estonian shipping market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in Estonia through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments.
- Exploit the latest competitive intelligence and company SWOTS on your competitors and peers including multinational and national companies.
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis covering shipping, major investments and projects and significant multinational and national company developments.
SWOT (Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats) analysis of the state's shipping sector, which carefully evaluates the short- and medium-term issues facing the industry.
Analysis of the capacity, terminals and planned development of the major ports in each country, including data on throughput and total tonnage.
Industry Forecast Scenario
Historic data series (2008-2012) and forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry and macroeconomic indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:
Major port freight throughput (tonnes/teu); overall freight throughput (teu); total imports (US$bn) and exports (US$bn).
Company profiles include business activities, leading products and services, company strategy, trends and developments and economic performance analysis.