In the ports and shipping sector, competition from the new Russian Baltic port of Ust-Luga has been a negative for Estonia's port of Tallinn. But despite uncertainty on this front Tallinn has been coping well and diversifying its business. Tonnage at the Estonian port fell by an estimated 4.2% in 2013 and, we now expect it to register small but positive growth in 2014. The port authorities have claimed that a policy of diversification will eventually begin to pay off: we expect moderate growth in container activity levels in 2014.
Recovery To Gather Pace in 2015, Russia Permitting
Relative to our last quarterly report, we have downgraded our forecast for GDP expansion in Estonia this year, although we see the recovery gathering pace in 2015 and 2016. GDP came in below expectations in Q1 2014, contracting by 1.2% on a year-on-year (y-o-y) basis. The biggest drag on growth appears to be net exports as domestic consumption has boosted imports. Private consumption has remained robust on the back of rising real wages and falling unemployment. This has propped up total economic activity in the face of weak export growth and a slowdown in key sectors negatively affected by developments in Russia, most notably the transport and storage industry. Russian liquid bulk cargo has been increasingly re-routed through domestic facilities. We are now forecasting just 0.9% GDP growth this year, rising to 2.8% in 2015 and 3.2% in 206.
Headline Industry Data
Port of Tallinn gross tonnage set to grow by 2.1%, to 28.84mn tonnes in 2014, following a 4.2% fall in 2013.
Box traffic at Tallinn to grow by 2.2%, to 259,207 twenty-foot equivalent units (TEUs) in 2014 - a slowdown on the 11.3% growth of 2013.
Estonian foreign trade to gain 2.1% in real terms in 2014, after 2.2% growth in 2013.
Import growth will lead with 2.3% expansion, fractionally ahead of exports, which will be up by 1.8%.
Key Industry Trends
Profits A nd Volumes Rise Moderately A t Tallinn: The port of...
The Estonia Shipping Report has been researched at source and features latest-available data and Business Monitor International (BMI)'s independent forecasting, critically analysing international transport of dry bulk and containers. The report evaluates the global commodities and trade backdrop, alongside in-depth country-specific analysis of trade prospects. The report also contains company profiles covering leading multinational and national shipping companies and analysis of latest industry news, trends and regulatory developments in Estonia.
BMI's Estonia Shipping Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, business investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the shipping industry in Estonia.
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Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis covering shipping, major investments and projects and significant multinational and national company developments.
SWOT (Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats) analysis of the state's shipping sector, which carefully evaluates the short- and medium-term issues facing the industry.
Analysis of the capacity, terminals and planned development of the major ports in each country, including data on throughput and total tonnage.
Industry Forecast Scenario
Historic data series (2008-2012) and forecasts to end-2017 for all key industry and macroeconomic indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:
Major port freight throughput (tonnes/teu); overall freight throughput (teu); total imports (US$bn) and exports (US$bn).
Company profiles include business activities, leading products and services, company strategy, trends and developments and economic performance analysis.