Business Monitor International


Estonia Shipping Report

Published 01 October 2014

  • 117 pages
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$1,295.00
Estonia Shipping Report

In the ports and shipping sector, competition from the new Russian Baltic port of Ust-Luga has been a negative for Estonia's port of Tallinn. But despite uncertainty on this front Tallinn has been coping well and diversifying its business. Tonnage at the Estonian port fell by an estimated 4.2% in 2013 and, we now expect it to register small but positive growth in 2014. The port authorities have claimed that a policy of diversification will eventually begin to pay off: we expect moderate growth in container activity levels in 2014.

Recovery To Gather Pace in 2015, Russia Permitting

Relative to our last quarterly report, we have downgraded our forecast for GDP expansion in Estonia this year, although we see the recovery gathering pace in 2015 and 2016. GDP came in below expectations in Q1 2014, contracting by 1.2% on a year-on-year (y-o-y) basis. The biggest drag on growth appears to be net exports as domestic consumption has boosted imports. Private consumption has remained robust on the back of rising real wages and falling unemployment. This has propped up total economic activity in the face of weak export growth and a slowdown in key sectors negatively affected by developments in Russia, most notably the transport and storage industry. Russian liquid bulk cargo has been increasingly re-routed through domestic facilities. We are now forecasting just 0.9% GDP growth this year, rising to 2.8% in 2015 and 3.2% in 206.

Headline Industry Data

  • Port of Tallinn gross tonnage set to grow by 2.1%, to 28.84mn tonnes in 2014, following a 4.2% fall in 2013.

  • Box traffic at Tallinn to grow by 2.2%, to 259,207 twenty-foot equivalent units (TEUs) in 2014 - a slowdown on the 11.3% growth of 2013.

  • Estonian foreign trade to gain 2.1% in real terms in 2014, after 2.2% growth in 2013.

  • Import growth will lead with 2.3% expansion, fractionally ahead of exports, which will be up by 1.8%.

Key Industry Trends

Profits A nd Volumes Rise Moderately A t Tallinn:  The port of...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
5
SWOT
7
Shipping
7
Political
8
Economic
9
Business Environment
10
Industry Forecast
11
Port Of Tallinn Throughput
11
Table: Major Port Data (Estonia 2011-2018)
16
Table: Trade Overview (Estonia 2011-2018)
16
Table: Key Trade Indicators (Estonia 2011-2018)
17
Table: Top Import Partners, 2004-2012
18
Table: Top Export Destinations 2004-2012
19
Market Overview
20
Estonia Container Shipping Market Overview
20
Industry Trends And Developments
34
Shipping - Global Industry View
37
Container Demand:
37
Container Supply:
45
Container Rates:
51
Global Company Strategy
54
Maersk Line
54
Mediterranean Shipping Company (MSC)
64
CMA CGM
71
Evergreen Line
82
COSCO Container Lines Company (COSCON)
89
Macroeconomic Forecasts
96
Economic Analysis
96
Table: Estonia - GDP By Expenditure
103
Demographic Forecast
104
Estonia
104
Table: Estonia's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
105
Table: Estonia's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
106
Table: Estonia's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
107
Table: Estonia's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
107

The Estonia Shipping Report has been researched at source and features latest-available data and Business Monitor International (BMI)'s independent forecasting, critically analysing international transport of dry bulk and containers. The report evaluates the global commodities and trade backdrop, alongside in-depth country-specific analysis of trade prospects. The report also contains company profiles covering leading multinational and national shipping companies and analysis of latest industry news, trends and regulatory developments in Estonia.

BMI's Estonia Shipping Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, business investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the shipping industry in Estonia.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent shipping industry forecasts for Estonia to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Estonian shipping market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in Estonia through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments.
  • Exploit the latest competitive intelligence and company SWOTS on your competitors and peers including multinational and national companies.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis covering shipping, major investments and projects and significant multinational and national company developments.

SWOT Analysis

SWOT (Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats) analysis of the state's shipping sector, which carefully evaluates the short- and medium-term issues facing the industry.

Market Overview

Analysis of the capacity, terminals and planned development of the major ports in each country, including data on throughput and total tonnage.

Industry Forecast Scenario

Historic data series (2008-2012) and forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry and macroeconomic indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:

Major port freight throughput (tonnes/teu); overall freight throughput (teu); total imports (US$bn) and exports (US$bn).

Company Profiles

Company profiles include business activities, leading products and services, company strategy, trends and developments and economic performance analysis.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc