Business Monitor International


Estonia Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report

Published 25 February 2014

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Estonia Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report

BMI View: The Estonian State Agency for Medicines, Ravimiamet , has released pharmaceutical consumption data for Q313. Figures show that sales of medicines rose year-over-year by 5% to EUR55mn at wholesale prices, in line with our forecast for a slowdown in sales growth in 2013. Growth in pharmaceutical spending in Estonia will continue to be held back as the Estonian government's policy of fiscal restraint continues. Estonia will continue to present a relatively limited market for pharmaceuticals despite having a positive business environment. Fiscal tightening has lead to pressure on the Estonian Health Insurance Fund to rein in pharmaceutical expenditure through pricing limits, generic prescribing and reference pricing mechanisms on reimbursed drugs. Whether or not a fiscally conservative policy in healthcare spending can survive Estonia's ageing population and the subsequent growth in demand for medicine is highly dependent on the unemployment levels and the raising of premiums by the health insurance fund. Thus, pharmaceutical sales in Estonia tend to emulate broader macroeconomic trends.

Headline Expenditure Projections

  • Pharmaceuticals: From EUR276mn (US$360mn) in 2013 to EUR291mn (US$370mn) in 2014; +5.6% in local currency terms and +1.6% in US dollar terms. Local currency forecast of 5.5% in 2014 picks up modestly after 5.3% in 2013 before continuing on a long-term decline. The 2014 local currency forecast represents a marked decline from the growth of 9.2% in 2012 due to new market data and macroeconomic expectations.

  • Healthcare: EUR1.06bn (US$1.39bn) in 2013 to EUR1.10bn (US$1.40bn) in 2014; +4.3% in local currency terms and +0.3% in US dollar terms .

Risk/Reward Ratings

Estonia scores 52.1 out of 100 in BMI's Pharmaceutical Risk/Reward Rating (RRR) tool, remaining in 10 th position out of the 20 key markets covered in Central and Eastern Europe. Estonia's Industry Rewards score is still the weakest part of its pharmaceutical profile, at 12.8,...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
10
Political
12
Economic
13
Business Environment
14
Industry Forecast
15
Pharmaceutical Market Forecast
15
Table: Estonia's Pharmaceutical Sales, Historical Data And Forecasts, 2010-2018
17
Healthcare Market Forecast
18
Table: Estonia's Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts, 2010-2018
20
Table: Estonia's Government Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts, 2010-2018
20
Table: Estonia's Private Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts, 2010-2018
21
Prescription Drug Market Forecast
21
Table: Leading ATC Groups By Pharmaceutical Sales, 2004-2010 (%)
22
Table: Estonia Prescription Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts, 2010-2018
25
Patented Drug Market Forecast
26
Table: Estonia's Patented Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts, 2010-2018
27
Generic Drug Market Forecast
27
Table: Estonia's Generics Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts, 2010-2018
28
OTC Medicine Market Forecast
29
Table: Estonia's Over-The-Counter (OTC) Medicine Market Indicators, Historical Data and Forecasts, 2010-2018
30
Pharmaceutical Trade Forecast
31
Table: Estonia's Pharmaceutical Trade Data And Forecasts, 2010-2018 (US$mn)
32
Table: Estonia's Pharmaceutical Trade Data And Forecasts, 2010-2018 (EURmn)
33
Other Healthcare Data
33
Key Risks To BMI's Forecast Scenario
34
Macroeconomic Forecasts
35
Economic Analysis
35
Table: ESTONIA - GDP BY EXPENDITURE, REAL GROWTH %
43
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
44
Central And Eastern Europe Risk/Reward Ratings
44
Estonia Risk/Reward Ratings
50
Rewards
50
Risks
51
Market Overview
52
Industry Trends And Developments
54
Epidemiology
54
Table: Leading Causes of Death, 2005-2010
55
Healthcare Sector
56
Healthcare Reform
58
Healthcare Provision
59
Healthcare Funding
60
Table: Healthcare Expenditure By The HIF, 2006-2011 (EURmn)
61
Healthcare Insurance
61
Table: Reimbursement Spending By Key Therapeutic Area, 2010-2011 (EURmn)
62
Table: Medicinal Products Reimbursed For Insured Patients, 2009-2011 (EURmn)
64
Healthcare Tourism
64
Biotechnology
64
Table: Members Of EBio, 2011
65
Clinical Trials
67
Table: Clinical Trials, 1991-2011
67
Regulatory Development
69
Pharmaceutical Advertising
70
Regional Harmonisation
71
Intellectual Property Regime
72
Parallel Importing
73
Pricing Regime
73
Reimbursement Regime
74
Table: Key Health Insurance Indicators, 2007-2011
75
Table: Expenditure By Reimbursed Prescription Medicinal Products, 2005-2010 (EEK '000)
76
Competitive Landscape
78
Pharmaceutical Sector
78
Table: Members Of The Association Of International Pharmaceutical Manufacturers In Estonia (APME)
79
Foreign Pharmaceutical Players
79
Pharmaceutical Wholesale
81
Pharmaceutical Retail
82
Table: Pharmacies And Pharmacy Market Ratios, 2004-2009
82
Company Profile
85
GlaxoSmithKline
85
Pfizer
87
Novartis
89
Sanofi
91
Merck & Co
93
Grindeks (incorporating Tallinn Pharmaceutical Plant)
95
Demographic Forecast
99
Estonia
99
Table: Estonia's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
100
Table: Estonia's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
101
Table: Estonia's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
102
Table: Estonia's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
102
Glossary
103
Methodology
105
Pharmaceutical Expenditure Forecast Model
105
Healthcare Expenditure Forecast Model
105
Notes On Methodology
106
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
107
Ratings Overview
108
Table: Pharmaceutical Risk/Reward Ratings Indicators
108
Indicator Weightings
109

The Estonia Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s forecasts for drugs and healthcare expenditure and imports and exports, focusing on the growth outlook for the prescription, OTC, patented drugs and generics market segments.

BMI's Estonia Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report provides industry professionals, strategists, company executives, investors, analysts and sales/marketing heads with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Estonian pharmaceutical and healthcare industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent pharmaceutical and healthcare industry forecasts for Estonia to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Estonian pharmaceutical and healthcare market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Estonian pharmaceutical and healthcare sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Estonia.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and Competitive Landscape Tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View & Industry SWOT

An at-a-glance perspective on latest regulatory developments, key forecast indicators and major corporate developments, covering the prescription, OTC and generics markets. The SWOT outlines strategic factors which affect BMI's forecast analysis, and taken together with BMI's political, economic and business environment SWOTS, it gives a complete overview of market climate.

Market Summary

Snapshot of key market characteristics, including total size of pharmaceuticals and healthcare segments, growth drivers, leading therapeutic areas and the competitive landscape.

Regulatory Regime

Details of the industry regulatory framework and key legislation covering the licensing of new products/services, pricing and reimbursements, intellectual property, taxation and advertising, as well as an analysis of the overall regulatory burden.

Industry Developments

Focus on government healthcare reforms, epidemiological trends, company M&As, product launches, market entries, FDI activity, R&D, biotechnology, clinical trials and supply chain issues.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry indicators (see list below) supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:

Healthcare: Total healthcare expenditure (US$bn), healthcare expenditure (% of GDP), healthcare expenditure per capita (US$), hospital beds (per `000 population), doctors (per `000 population), birth and mortality rate (per `000 population)

Pharmaceutical market: Drug expenditure (US$bn), drug expenditure (% of GDP), drug expenditure per capita (US$)

Patented drug market: Prescription drug sales (US$bn), prescription sales (% of total sales), sales broken down by 14 therapeutic areas (cardiovascular, anti-infectives etc.)

Generic drug market: Generic product sales (US$bn), generic sales (% of total sales)

OTC drug market: OTC sales (US$bn), OTC sales (% of total sales), sales broken down by product types (analgesics, skin treatments, vitamins and minerals etc.)

Medical Devices: Medical device sales (US$bn), medical device sales (% of total healthcare market)

Macroeconomic Forecasts: Nominal and real GDP, % real GDP growth, % private consumption growth, % industrial output growth, % consumer price index, % GDP price deflator, exports, imports, trade balance, current account balance, foreign direct investment, exchange rate against US$, government expenditure, external debt.

Competitive Landscape

The competitive landscape section provides comparative company analyses and rankings by US$ sales and % share of total sales - for the total pharmaceutical sector, as well as the OTC, generics, and distribution sub-sectors.

Company Profiles

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

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