Business Monitor International


Estonia Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report

Published 30 May 2014

  • 107 pages
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$1,295.00
Estonia Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report

BMI View:

Estonia will continue to present a relatively limited market for pharmaceuticals despite having a positive business environment. The reason for that is limited growth in pharmaceutical spending in Estonia as the Estonian government's policy of fiscal restraint continues. Fiscal tightening has lead to pressure on the Estonian Health Insurance Fund to rein in pharmaceutical expenditure through pricing limits, generic prescribing and reference pricing mechanisms on reimbursed drugs. Whether or not a fiscally conservative policy in healthcare spending can survive Estonia's ageing population and the subsequent growth in demand for medicine is highly dependent on broader macroeconomic trends. Nevertheless, there are also potential rewards in the market. Any growth in demand for medicine is highly dependent on unemployment levels and the raising of premiums by the HIF.

Headline Expenditure Projections

  • Pharmaceuticals: From EUR276mn (USD364mn) in 2013 to EUR291mn (USD390mn) in 2014; +5.6% in local currency terms and +7.2% in US dollar terms. The local currency growth forecast of 5.6% in 2014 is a modest increase after 2013's 5.3%, but the forecast continues on a long-term decline after 2014. The 2014 local currency forecast represents a marked decline from the growth of 9.2% in 2012 due to new market data and macroeconomic expectations.

  • Healthcare: EUR1.12bn (USD1.48bn) in 2013 to EUR1.15bn (USD1.54bn) in 2014; +2.3% in local currency terms and +3.9% in US dollar terms .

Risk/Reward Ratings

Estonia scores 50.9 out of 100 in BMI's Pharmaceutical Risk/Reward Rating (RRR) tool, remaining in 10 th position out of the 20 key markets covered in Central and Eastern Europe. Estonia's Industry Rewards score is still the weakest part of its pharmaceutical profile, at now 11.6 after 12.8 in Q214, significantly below the regional average of 19.0. That it scores as high as it does is mainly due to above-average scores in the urban/rural split and pensionable...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
10
Political
12
Economic
13
Business Environment
14
Industry Forecast
15
Pharmaceutical Market Forecast
15
Table: Pharmaceutical Sales, Historical Data And Forecasts (Estonia 2010-2018)
18
Healthcare Market Forecast
19
Table: Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (Estonia 2010-2018)
21
Table: Government Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (Estonia 2010-2018)
21
Table: Private Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (Estonia 2010-2018)
22
Prescription Drug Market Forecast
23
Table: Leading ATC Groups By Pharmaceutical Sales, 2004-2010 (%)
24
Table: Prescription Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (Estonia 2010-2018)
27
Patented Drug Market Forecast
28
Table: Patented Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (Estonia 2010-2018)
29
Generic Drug Market Forecast
30
Table: Generics Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (Estonia 2010-2018)
31
OTC Medicine Market Forecast
32
Table: Over-The-Counter (OTC) Medicine Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (Estonia 2010-2018)
34
Pharmaceutical Trade Forecast
35
Table: Pharmaceutical Trade Data And Forecasts (Estonia 2012-2018)
37
Table: Pharmaceutical Trade Data And Forecasts local currency (Estonia 2012-2018)
37
Other Healthcare Data
38
Key Risks To BMI's Forecast Scenario
39
Macroeconomic Forecasts
40
Economic Analysis
40
Table: Estonia - GDP By Expenditure
47
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
48
Central And Eastern Europe Risk/Reward Ratings
48
Estonia Risk/Reward Ratings
55
Rewards
55
Risks
56
Market Overview
57
Industry Trends And Developments
59
Epidemiology
59
Table: Leading Causes of Death, 2005-2010
61
Healthcare Sector
62
Healthcare Reform
64
Healthcare Provision
65
Healthcare Funding
65
Table: Healthcare Expenditure By The HIF, 2006-2011 (EURmn)
66
Healthcare Insurance
66
Table: Reimbursement Spending By Key Therapeutic Area, 2010-2011 (EURmn)
68
Table: Medicinal Products Reimbursed For Insured Patients, 2009-2011 (EURmn)
69
Healthcare Tourism
69
Biotechnology
69
Table: Members Of EBio, 2011
70
Clinical Trials
71
Table: Clinical Trials, 1991-2011
72
Regulatory Development
73
Pharmaceutical Advertising
74
Regional Harmonisation
75
Intellectual Property Regime
76
Parallel Importing
77
Pricing Regime
77
Reimbursement Regime
78
Table: Key Health Insurance Indicators, 2007-2011
79
Table: Expenditure By Reimbursed Prescription Medicinal Products, 2005-2010 (EEK '000)
80
Competitive Landscape
82
Pharmaceutical Sector
82
Table: Members Of The Association Of International Pharmaceutical Manufacturers In Estonia (APME)
83
Foreign Pharmaceutical Players
83
Pharmaceutical Wholesale
85
Pharmaceutical Retail
86
Table: Pharmacies And Pharmacy Market Ratios, 2004-2009
86
Company Profile
89
GlaxoSmithKline
89
Pfizer
91
Novartis
93
Sanofi
95
Merck & Co
97
Grindeks (incorporating Tallinn Pharmaceutical Plant)
99
Demographic Forecast
104
Estonia
104
Table: Estonia's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
105
Table: Estonia's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
106
Table: Estonia's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
107
Table: Estonia's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
107
Glossary
108
Methodology
110
Pharmaceutical Expenditure Forecast Model
110
Healthcare Expenditure Forecast Model
110
Notes On Methodology
111
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
112
Ratings Overview
113
Table: Pharmaceutical Risk/Reward Ratings Indicators
113
Indicator Weightings
114

The Estonia Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s forecasts for drugs and healthcare expenditure and imports and exports, focusing on the growth outlook for the prescription, OTC, patented drugs and generics market segments.

BMI's Estonia Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report provides industry professionals, strategists, company executives, investors, analysts and sales/marketing heads with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Estonian pharmaceutical and healthcare industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent pharmaceutical and healthcare industry forecasts for Estonia to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Estonian pharmaceutical and healthcare market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Estonian pharmaceutical and healthcare sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Estonia.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and Competitive Landscape Tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View & Industry SWOT

An at-a-glance perspective on latest regulatory developments, key forecast indicators and major corporate developments, covering the prescription, OTC and generics markets. The SWOT outlines strategic factors which affect BMI's forecast analysis, and taken together with BMI's political, economic and business environment SWOTS, it gives a complete overview of market climate.

Market Summary

Snapshot of key market characteristics, including total size of pharmaceuticals and healthcare segments, growth drivers, leading therapeutic areas and the competitive landscape.

Regulatory Regime

Details of the industry regulatory framework and key legislation covering the licensing of new products/services, pricing and reimbursements, intellectual property, taxation and advertising, as well as an analysis of the overall regulatory burden.

Industry Developments

Focus on government healthcare reforms, epidemiological trends, company M&As, product launches, market entries, FDI activity, R&D, biotechnology, clinical trials and supply chain issues.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry indicators (see list below) supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:

Healthcare: Total healthcare expenditure (US$bn), healthcare expenditure (% of GDP), healthcare expenditure per capita (US$), hospital beds (per `000 population), doctors (per `000 population), birth and mortality rate (per `000 population)

Pharmaceutical market: Drug expenditure (US$bn), drug expenditure (% of GDP), drug expenditure per capita (US$)

Patented drug market: Prescription drug sales (US$bn), prescription sales (% of total sales), sales broken down by 14 therapeutic areas (cardiovascular, anti-infectives etc.)

Generic drug market: Generic product sales (US$bn), generic sales (% of total sales)

OTC drug market: OTC sales (US$bn), OTC sales (% of total sales), sales broken down by product types (analgesics, skin treatments, vitamins and minerals etc.)

Medical Devices: Medical device sales (US$bn), medical device sales (% of total healthcare market)

Macroeconomic Forecasts: Nominal and real GDP, % real GDP growth, % private consumption growth, % industrial output growth, % consumer price index, % GDP price deflator, exports, imports, trade balance, current account balance, foreign direct investment, exchange rate against US$, government expenditure, external debt.

Competitive Landscape

The competitive landscape section provides comparative company analyses and rankings by US$ sales and % share of total sales - for the total pharmaceutical sector, as well as the OTC, generics, and distribution sub-sectors.

Company Profiles

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc