Business Monitor International


Estonia Infrastructure Report

Published 05 December 2014

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Estonia Infrastructure Report

BMI Industry View

BMI View : The only real growth stories of note in our outlook for the Estonian construction sector are a relatively strong residential housing subsector, driven by rising house prices and high demand, and developments at the country's ports with further trade routes and partners being targeted. While 2015 will be a return to growth after two years of contraction for the construction sector at 3. 5 %, the long-term outlook is unspectacular low single-digit growth .

Although business confidence is still relatively weak - owing to cautious recovery in the eurozone, there is significant optimism in the household sector. As mentioned, the dominant residential building sector will be the main driver of construction growth to the end of our forecast period. Building permits for dwellings, mainly block of flats, increased in Q214 by 50% y-o-y to 1,333, with the number of dwellings being completed rising by 147 on Q213 to 631. We see the residential and non-residential sector only growing in dominance of total construction value over our forecast period, rising from 65.2% in 2015 to 72.2% in 2024, at a value of EUR1.5bn (USD1.9bn).

Key developments in the sector included:

Eesti Bank, Estonia's central bank, announced that the median square metre price for housing stood 20% higher y-o-y in Q114, but still 21% lower than the 2007 peak. In a statement the bank said that a steep rise in demand has been caused by the younger generation and people restrained by the financial crisis entering the housing market, and a growth in single person households. Furthermore, due to the quantity of houses and flats built 30-40 years ago, people are now looking to upgrade to more modern homes, and not just in Tallinn, but these trends have been spreading throughout the country gaining independence from Russia and joining the EU. Although price increases and demand are set to continue, local lending banks have reportedly assured the central bank that they will not...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
5
SWOT Analysis
7
Estonia Infrastructure Industry SWOT
7
Market Overview
8
Competitive Landscape
8
Building Materials
9
Europe
9
Table: Cement Price / Volume, % Variance (6M11/6M12)
13
Industry Forecast Scenario
14
Table: Estonia Construction And Infrastructure Industry Data, 2010-2016
14
Table: Estonia Construction And Infrastructure Long Term Forecasts, 2015-2021
15
Construction And Infrastructure Forecast Scenario
17
Transport Infrastructure
19
Table: Estonia Transport Infrastructure Industry Data, 2010-2016
19
Table: Estonia Transport Infrastructure Long Term Forecasts, 2015-2021
21
Transport Infrastructure Outlook and Overview
23
Major Projects Table - Transport
25
Table: Major Projects - Transport
25
Energy And Utilities Infrastructure
26
Table: Estonia Energy and Utilities Infrastructure Industry Data, 2010-2016
26
Table: Estonia Energy and Utilities Infrastructure Long Term Forecasts, 2015-2021
28
Energy and Utilities Infrastructure Outlook and Overview
30
Major Projects Table - Energy And Utilities
32
Table: Major Projects - Energy and Utilities
32
Residential/Non- Residential Construction and Social Infrastructure
33
Table: Estonia Residential and Non-residential Building Industry Data, 2010-2016
33
Table: Estonia Residential and Non-residential Building Long Term Forecast, 2015-2021
33
Residential/Non-Residential Construction Forecast Scenario
34
Risk/Rewards Ratings
36
Estonia's Risk/Rewards Ratings
36
Rewards
36
Risk
36
Regional Overview
37
Central and Eastern Europe Infrastructure Risk/Reward Ratings
37
Table: CEE Infrastructure Risk/Reward Ratings, Scores out of 100
39
Company Profiles
40
Merko
40
Global Overview
41
Methodology
48
Industry Forecasts
48
Construction Industry
49
Data Methodology
49
New Infrastructure Data Sub-sectors
49
Construction
51
Capital Investment
51
Construction Sector Employment
52
Infrastructure Business Environment Rating
53
Table: Infrastructure Business Environment Indicators
54
Project Finance Ratings
55
Table: Design And Construction Phase
56
Table: Commissioning And Operating Phase - Commercial Construction
58
Table: Commissioning And Operating Phase - Energy And Utilities
59
Table: Commissioning And Operating Phase - Transport
60
Sources
61

The Estonia Infrastructure Report features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s market assessment and forecasts covering public procurement and spending on all major infrastructure and construction projects, including transportation and logistics by land, sea and air; power plants and utilities, and commercial construction and property development. The report analyses the impact of regulatory changes and the macroeconomic outlook and features competitive intelligence on contractors and suppliers.

BMI's Estonia Infrastructure Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Estonian infrastructure and construction industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent infrastructure industry forecasts for Estonia to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the Estonian infrastructure market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Estonian infrastructure sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Estonia.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity).

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis covering infrastructure and construction, regulatory changes, major investments and projects and significant national and multinational company developments. These are broken down into construction (social, commercial and residential), transport (roads, railways, ports, airports, etc), and energy & utilities (powerplants, pipelines and so on).

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats within the infrastructure and construction sectors and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series (up to 2012) and forecasts to end-2024 for all key industry indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key developments in the market and risks to the main forecasts. Indicators include:

Construction: Industry value (USDbn); contribution to GDP (%); total capital investment (USDbn); real growth (%).

Construction industry real growth forecasts (%) and industry value (USDbn) forecasts for industry sectors are split into Residential and Non-residential and Infrastructure sectors. Where the data is available for particular countries the infrastructure is further broken down into indicators for the transport subsectors of roads, railways, airports and ports and the energy and utilities sub-sectors of power plants and transmission grids, oil & gas pipelines and water infrastructure. This dataset is unique to the market.

The reports also include analysis of latest projects across the infrastructure sectors (transport, utilities, commercial construction).

BMI’s Infrastructure Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Index provides investors (construction companies, suppliers and partners) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of a market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and  demographic data points. These provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.

Market Overview

An assessment of the competitive landscape and key challenges to entering the market. Details of the largest companies active in the sector across the sub-segments of the industry, including the key financial figures from some of the largest players in the sector.

Company Profiles*

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

Sources

The Infrastructure reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc