Business Monitor International


Estonia Infrastructure Report

Published 22 January 2014

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Estonia Infrastructure Report

BMI Industry View

BMI View : Improving optimism in the private household sector and the consequent rebound in the residential and non-residential building segment will help drive average growth of 3.8% year-on-year (y-o-y) in the Estonian construction sector between 2014 and 2023. Meanwhile, the contribution of the infrastructure sub-sector in the overall construction industry value growth will be negligible as dearth of government funding will limit transport and energy projects in the country.

Our core view for the Estonian residential and non-residential construction sub-sector envisages growth averaging over 5% y-o-y between 2014 and 2023, which will help the sub-sector account for 74.7% of the total construction industry value by the end of the forecast period - compared with its share of 66.1% in 2013. Although business confidence is still relatively weak - owing to cautious recovery in the eurozone, there is significant optimism in the household sector. The number of construction permits approved in the residential sector accordingly grew by 10.6% y-o-y during the first three quarters of 2013, while that for non-residential construction was down over 6%. However, growth in the residential and non-residential construction sub-sector will come at the expense of a fall in infrastructure market value as percentage of the overall construction industry, down from 33.9% in 2013 to 25.3% by 2023.

Key developments in the sector included:

  • The Rail Baltica project, which will connect Estonia to Poland, Finland and its other Baltic neighbours, is moving ahead, albeit with significant delays. The first stage of the project was due to be completed in 2013, but the tender for the implementation of the project was awarded to Estonia's Skinest Rail only in September 2013. Moreover, disputes regarding the inclusion of Vilnius in the Lithuanian part of the project.were resolved in October 2013.

The supervisory board of the Estonian port of Tallinn extended the...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Industry Forecast
10
Infrastructure And Construction Forecast Scenario
10
Industry Forecast Scenario
10
Table: Estonia Construction And Infrastructure Industry Data, 2012-2017
10
Table: Estonia Construction And Infrastructure Long Term Forecasts, 2018-2023
11
Transport Infrastructure - Outlook And Overview
16
Table: Estonia Transport Infrastructure Industry Data, 2012-2017
16
Table: Estonia Transport Infrastructure Long Term Forecasts, 2018-2023
17
Transport Infrastructure Outlook And Overview
19
Major Projects Table - Transport
21
Table: Major Projects - Transport
21
Energy And Utilities - Outlook And Overview
22
Table: Estonia Energy and Utilities Infrastructure Industry Data, 2012-2017
22
Table: Estonia Energy and Utilities Infrastructure Long Term Forecasts, 2018-2023
23
Energy and Utilities Infrastructure Outlook and Overview
24
Major Projects Table - Energy & Utilities
26
Table: Major Projects - Energy and Utilities
26
Residential/Non-Residential Building - Outlook And Overview
27
Table: Estonia Residential and Non-residential Building Industry Data, 2010-2016
27
Table: Estonia Residential and Non-residential Building Long Term Forecast, 2018-2023
27
Residential/Non-Residential Construction Forecast Scenario
27
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
29
Estonia Infrastructure Risk Reward Ratings
29
Risk/Rewards Ratings
29
Rewards
29
Risks
29
Central And Eastern Europe - Infrastructure Risk/Reward Ratings
30
Table: Central And Eastern Europe Risk/Reward Ratings
36
Market Overview
37
Competitive Landscape
37
Company Profile
38
Merko
38
Global Infrastructure Overview
40
Global Industry Overview
40
Table: Latin America PPP Round-Up
44
Methodology
49
Industry Forecast Methodology
49
Sector-Specific Methodology
50
Risk/Reward Rating Methodology
54
Sector-Specific Methodology
55
Table: Infrastructure Risk/Reward Rating Indicators
55
Table: Weighting Of Indicators
56

The Estonia Infrastructure Report features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s market assessment and forecasts covering public procurement and spending on all major infrastructure and construction projects, including transportation and logistics by land, sea and air; power plants and utilities, and commercial construction and property development. The report analyses the impact of regulatory changes and the macroeconomic outlook and features competitive intelligence on contractors and suppliers.

BMI's Estonia Infrastructure Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Estonian infrastructure and construction industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent infrastructure industry forecasts for Estonia to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the Estonian infrastructure market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Estonian infrastructure sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Estonia.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity).

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis covering infrastructure and construction, regulatory changes, major investments and projects and significant multinational and national company developments.

These are broken down into Construction (social, commercial and residential), Transport (roads, railways, ports, airports etc), and Energy & Utilities (powerplants, renewable projects, pipelines and so on).

Industry Trends

Analysis of latest projects across the infrastructure sector (covering the transport, utilities and commercial construction sub-sectors) - including:

Market Overview:Analysis of the key elements driving developments, including evaluations of current capacity and future requirements.

Building Materials Overview

The building materials overview provides industry trend analysis on the global and regional demands for building materials and the impact of this on the emerging and developed markets.

Business Environment Ratings

BMI's Infrastructure Business Environment Ratings provide a country-comparative Risk-Reward Ratings index aimed at investors (construction companies, suppliers and partners) in the regional infrastructure market.

The ratings methodology makes sophisticated use of over 40 industry, economic and demographic data point.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the infrastructure and construction sectors and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI Industry & Economic Forecasts

Historic data series (2008-2012) and forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry and economic indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key risks to the main forecast. Indicators include:

Construction: Industry value (US$bn); contribution to GDP (%); employment (`000); real growth (%).

Infrastructure: Value (US$bn); contribution to construction industry (%); real growth (%) of transport infrastructure (broken down by railways, airports, roads and bridges, ports and harbours) and energy and utilities (broken down by power plants and transmission grids, oil and gas pipelines, and water infrastructure).

Economy: Economic growth (%); nominal GDP (US$bn); unemployment (%); interest rates (%); exchange rate (against US$).

Company Profiles

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc