Business Monitor International


Estonia Food & Drink Report

Published 17 November 2014

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Estonia Food & Drink Report

BMI Industry View

The Estonian retail sector remains positive and is planning further expansion of both ranges and premises during 2015, with mass grocery retail players being no exception. The country's economy has turned a corner and will post relatively strong real GDP growth over the next two years. Although Estonia's unemployment will fall at a slower rate, household incomes will continue to increase and this rising domestic demand will more than offset lower export growth, as relations with Russia remain strained.

Headline Industry Data

  • 2014 per capita food consumption (local currency): +2.04%; forecast compound annual growth rate (CAGR) to 2018: +2.06%.

  • 2014 alcoholic drinks sales (volume): -0.39%; forecast CAGR to 2018: +0.54%.

  • 2014 soft drinks sales (volume): +2.69%; forecast CAGR to 2018: +1.05%.

  • 2014 mass grocery retail sales (local currency): +4.50%; forecast CAGR to 2018: +4.55%.

Key Company Trends

HKScan Announces Major Production Investment In Rakvere: Rakvere brand owner HKScan announced on October 13 2014 that it was planning to invest EUR20mn in a new production facility in Rakvere, Estonia. The plans involve building a new 10,000 square metre production facility alongside its existing plant in Rakvere. The new plant will be equipped with advanced technology designed to deliver value-added products for growing product segments. The planned investment is geared particularly toward developing the offering of the new Group brand, Flodins.

Maxima Seeks Sector Dominance In Estonia:  Maxima Group is planning to open up to 20 new stores in Estonia over the next three years and aims to be the country's market leader by 2016, said Maxima Eesti CEO Vaidotas Pacesa in September 2014. The announcement came at the ceremonial laying of the cornerstone of its new EUR30mn logistics centre, which is expected to be completed by the end of 2015. Pacesa went on to announce that the company would be opening its first Maxima XXX store in the...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
6
SWOT Analysis
7
Estonia Food Industry SWOT
7
Estonia Drink Industry SWOT
9
Estonia Mass Grocery Retail Industry SWOT
10
Business Environment Outlook
11
BMI's Core Global Industry Views
11
Table: Core Views
19
CEE Food & Drink Risk/Reward Ratings
20
Table: Central & Eastern Europe Q113 Food & Drink Risk/Reward Ratings
21
Table: Central & Eastern Europe Q113 Food & Drink Risk/Reward Sub-Factor Ratings (scores out of 10)
24
Estonia's Food & Drink Risk/Reward Rating
25
Macroeconomic Outlook
26
Table: Economic Activity
28
Industry Forecast Scenario
29
Consumer Outlook
29
Food
32
Food Consumption
32
Table: Food Consumption Indicators - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2017
33
Canned Food
33
Table: Canned Food Value/Volume Sales - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017
34
Confectionery
34
Table: Confectionery Value/Volume Sales - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017
35
Dairy
36
Table: Dairy Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017
37
Pasta
40
Table: Pasta Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017
41
Processed Foods
42
Table: Snack Foods Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017
42
Meat
45
Table: Meat Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017
45
Drink
46
Alcoholic Drinks
46
Table: Alcoholic Drinks Value/Volume Sales - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017
47
Soft Drinks
48
Table: Soft Drinks Value/Volume Sales - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017
49
Hot Drinks
50
Table: Hot Drinks Value/Volume Sales - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017
51
Table: Hot Drinks Trade Indicators - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017
51
Mass Grocery Retail
52
Table: Mass Grocery Retail Sales - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017
53
Table: Grocery Retail Sales By Format - Historical Data And Forecasts
54
Trade
54
Table: Food & Drink Trade Indicators - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017
55
Food
56
Key Industry Trends And Developments
56
Producers Promote Locally Made Foods
56
Premia Foods' Q312 Turnover Falls
56
Estonian Yields Higher In 2012, Despite Late Harvest
56
Downturn Results In Company Exits
56
Ethanol Production Targeted
57
Market Overview
57
Food Consumption
57
Food Processing
58
Leading Food Producers
59
Meat Processing
59
Confectionery
59
Agriculture
60
Drink
61
Key Industry Trends and Developments
61
Carlsberg Initiates Compulsory Purchase of Baltika Breweries
61
Alcoholic Drinks Continue To Suffer
61
Producers Expand Their Portfolio Offerings
61
Market Overview
62
Alcoholic Drinks
62
Beer
63
Spirits
64
Soft Drinks
64
Hot Drinks
65
Mass Grocery Retail
67
Key Industry Trends And Developments
67
Leading Retailer Doubles Profit In Q112
67
Market Overview
67
Leading Retailers
68
Table: Structure Of Mass Grocery Retail Market By Estimated Number Of Outlets
69
Table: Structure Of Mass Grocery Retail Sector By Sales Value By Format (US$mn)
69
Table: Average Annual Sales Per Outlet By Format, 2012
70
Competitive Landscape
71
Key Players
71
Table: Key Players In Estonia-s Food & Drink Sector
71
Company Monitor
72
Food
72
Valio Eesti AS
72
Paulig Baltic AS
74
Kalev Chocolate Factory
75
Rakvere Lihakombinaat
76
Drink
77
Saku -lletehas
77
Liviko AS
78
A Le Coq
80
Mass Grocery Retail
81
Rimi Baltic AB
81
Maxima
82
Prisma Peremarket
83
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
84
Table: Rewards
84
Table: Risks
85
Weighting
85
Table: Weighting
85
BMI Food & Drink Industry Glossary
86
Food & Drink
86
Mass Grocery Retail
86
BMI Food & Drink Forecasting & Sourcing
88
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
88
Sourcing
89

The Estonia Food & Drink Report features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s market assessment and independent forecasts for food and drink expenditure, consumption, sales, and imports/exports and forecasts for the mass grocery retail sector. The report also includes analyses of major regulatory developments, the background macroeconomic outlook and competitive landscape comparing national and multinational companies by leading products and services, sales, investments, partners and expansion strategies.

BMI's Estonia Food & Drink Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, business investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the food and drink industry and the mass grocery retail market in Estonia.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent food and drink industry forecasts for Estonia to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Estonian food and drink market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in Estonia through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments.
  • Exploit latest competitive intelligence on your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and Competitive Landscape Tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts, and views, covering food and drink manufacturing and consumption and the retail market.

Business Environment Rankings

BMI's Food & Drink Business Environment Rankings provide a country-comparative Risk-Reward Rankings index aimed at investors, food and drink manufacturers and mass grocery retailers.

The rankings methodology makes sophisticated use of over 40 industry, economic and demographic data points.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the food, drink and mass grocery retail sectors, and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

Food Forecasts

BMI's food chapter is divided into sections such as Meat, Fish, Confectionary, Dairy and Canned Foods, and provides insight into a market's food industry, centred on a forecast to end-2018 for the sector. The chapter includes the following elements:

Industry Forecast Scenario - Historical data series and forecasts to end-2018 for growth of key indicators within a market's food industry. Including consumption, food consumption as % of GDP, canned food sales, confectionery sales and food and drink imports and exports, among others.

Industry Developments - A summary of corporate developments, including news on M&As, FDI, expansions, closures and financial results, in addition to analysis and explanation of the latest industry events and how these could influence further investment.

Market Overview - An overview of the structure of the market, introducing the key players and discussing underlying trends.

Drink Forecasts

Segmented the same way as BMI's food chapter, the drink section provides insight into the market's drink industry, centred on a forecast to end-2018 for the sector. Forecast indicators include alcoholic and soft drink sales by value, volume and sub-sector and tea and coffee sales, among others.

Mass Grocery Retail Forecasts

Segmented the same way as BMI's food and drink chapters, the mass grocery retail section provides insight into a market's grocery retail industry, centred on a forecast to end-201 for the sector. Forecast indicators include mass grocery retail sales by format (including supermarkets, hypermarkets, convenience and discount stores) and a breakdown for the organised retail sector versus the traditional sector, among others.

Competitive Landscape & Profiles

Illustration of the industry via rankings tables comparing revenues, number of outlets and number of employees. BMI analyses each company's market position, business strategies and investment potential.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc