Business Monitor International


Estonia Food & Drink Report

Published 06 November 2013

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Estonia Food & Drink Report

BMI Industry View

As Estonia's unemployment rate continues to fall and household incomes continue to rise, its consumer outlook appears positive. The retail sector is feeling comfortable and plans further modest expansion of ranges and premises during 2014, with the mass grocery retail players being no exception. The more stable eurozone should also buoy up Estonia's economic and investment outlook, although the fragility of some eurozone members' economies means that continued stability of the currency is not guaranteed.

Headline Industry Data (local currency)

  • 2013 per capita food consumption: +2.22%; forecast compound annual growth rate (CAGR) to 2017: +1.71%.

  • 2013 alcoholic drinks sales (volume): +0.44%; forecast CAGR to 2017: +0.68%.

  • 2013 soft drinks sales (volume): +2.01%; forecast CAGR to 2017: +0.72%.

  • 2013 mass grocery retail sales: +2.42%; forecast CAGR to 2017: +3.88%.

Key Company Trends

Estonian Spring Cereal and Non-Cereal Yields Higher In 2013: Statistics Estonia reported in September 2013 that the harvest of key agricultural commodities had been completed considerably earlier than in 2012. By mid-September, 97% of areas planted to cereal grains had been harvested, as had 79% of rape and turnip rape, but just 47% of potatoes had been harvested. The yield of these non-cereal commodities was reportedly greater than in 2012. In terms of yields, one hectare of harvested rape/turnip rape yielded more than 2,000kg, while potatoes were averaging 21,982kg of crop per hectare. While spring cereal yields were higher than in 2012, this has been offset by lower winter cereal yields and overall one hectare delivered an average of 3,317kg - a little down on 2012 overall.

Estonian Vegetable Industry Struggling Against Imports: Despite an ongoing campaign by Estonian agricultural producers, chefs and other activists regarding eating domestic food products, the Estonian Horticultural Association highlighted that local vegetable producers faced huge...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
6
SWOT Analysis
7
Estonia Food Industry SWOT
7
Estonia Drink Industry SWOT
9
Estonia Mass Grocery Retail Industry SWOT
10
Business Environment Outlook
11
BMI's Core Global Industry Views
11
Table: Core Views
19
CEE Food & Drink Risk/Reward Ratings
20
Table: Central & Eastern Europe Q113 Food & Drink Risk/Reward Ratings
21
Table: Central & Eastern Europe Q113 Food & Drink Risk/Reward Sub-Factor Ratings (scores out of 10)
24
Estonia's Food & Drink Risk/Reward Rating
25
Macroeconomic Outlook
26
Table: Economic Activity
28
Industry Forecast Scenario
29
Consumer Outlook
29
Food
32
Food Consumption
32
Table: Food Consumption Indicators - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2017
33
Canned Food
33
Table: Canned Food Value/Volume Sales - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017
34
Confectionery
34
Table: Confectionery Value/Volume Sales - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017
35
Dairy
36
Table: Dairy Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017
37
Pasta
40
Table: Pasta Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017
41
Processed Foods
42
Table: Snack Foods Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017
42
Meat
45
Table: Meat Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017
45
Drink
46
Alcoholic Drinks
46
Table: Alcoholic Drinks Value/Volume Sales - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017
47
Soft Drinks
48
Table: Soft Drinks Value/Volume Sales - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017
49
Hot Drinks
50
Table: Hot Drinks Value/Volume Sales - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017
51
Table: Hot Drinks Trade Indicators - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017
51
Mass Grocery Retail
52
Table: Mass Grocery Retail Sales - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017
53
Table: Grocery Retail Sales By Format - Historical Data And Forecasts
54
Trade
54
Table: Food & Drink Trade Indicators - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017
55
Food
56
Key Industry Trends And Developments
56
Producers Promote Locally Made Foods
56
Premia Foods' Q312 Turnover Falls
56
Estonian Yields Higher In 2012, Despite Late Harvest
56
Downturn Results In Company Exits
56
Ethanol Production Targeted
57
Market Overview
57
Food Consumption
57
Food Processing
58
Leading Food Producers
59
Meat Processing
59
Confectionery
59
Agriculture
60
Drink
61
Key Industry Trends and Developments
61
Carlsberg Initiates Compulsory Purchase of Baltika Breweries
61
Alcoholic Drinks Continue To Suffer
61
Producers Expand Their Portfolio Offerings
61
Market Overview
62
Alcoholic Drinks
62
Beer
63
Spirits
64
Soft Drinks
64
Hot Drinks
65
Mass Grocery Retail
67
Key Industry Trends And Developments
67
Leading Retailer Doubles Profit In Q112
67
Market Overview
67
Leading Retailers
68
Table: Structure Of Mass Grocery Retail Market By Estimated Number Of Outlets
69
Table: Structure Of Mass Grocery Retail Sector By Sales Value By Format (US$mn)
69
Table: Average Annual Sales Per Outlet By Format, 2012
70
Competitive Landscape
71
Key Players
71
Table: Key Players In Estonia-s Food & Drink Sector
71
Company Monitor
72
Food
72
Valio Eesti AS
72
Paulig Baltic AS
74
Kalev Chocolate Factory
75
Rakvere Lihakombinaat
76
Drink
77
Saku -lletehas
77
Liviko AS
78
A Le Coq
80
Mass Grocery Retail
81
Rimi Baltic AB
81
Maxima
82
Prisma Peremarket
83
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
84
Table: Rewards
84
Table: Risks
85
Weighting
85
Table: Weighting
85
BMI Food & Drink Industry Glossary
86
Food & Drink
86
Mass Grocery Retail
86
BMI Food & Drink Forecasting & Sourcing
88
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
88
Sourcing
89

The Estonia Food & Drink Report features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s market assessment and independent forecasts for food and drink expenditure, consumption, sales, and imports/exports and forecasts for the mass grocery retail sector. The report also includes analyses of major regulatory developments, the background macroeconomic outlook and competitive landscape comparing national and multinational companies by leading products and services, sales, investments, partners and expansion strategies.

BMI's Estonia Food & Drink Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, business investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the food and drink industry and the mass grocery retail market in Estonia.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent food and drink industry forecasts for Estonia to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Estonian food and drink market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in Estonia through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments.
  • Exploit latest competitive intelligence on your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and Competitive Landscape Tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts, and views, covering food and drink manufacturing and consumption and the retail market.

Business Environment Ratings

BMI's Food & Drink Business Environment Ratings provide a country-comparative Risk-Reward Ratings index aimed at investors, food and drink manufacturers and mass grocery retailers.

The ratings methodology makes sophisticated use of over 40 industry, economic and demographic data points.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the food, drink and mass grocery retail sectors, and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

Food Forecasts

BMI's food chapter is divided into sections such as Meat, Fish, Confectionary, Dairy and Canned Foods, and provides insight into a market's food industry, centred on a forecast to end-2018 for the sector. The chapter includes the following elements:

Industry Forecast Scenario - Historical data series and forecasts to end-2018 for growth of key indicators within a market's food industry. Including consumption, food consumption as % of GDP, canned food sales, confectionery sales and food and drink imports and exports, among others.

Industry Developments - A summary of corporate developments, including news on M&As, FDI, expansions, closures and financial results, in addition to analysis and explanation of the latest industry events and how these could influence further investment.

Market Overview - An overview of the structure of the market, introducing the key players and discussing underlying trends.

Drink Forecasts

Segmented the same way as BMI's food chapter, the drink section provides insight into the market's drink industry, centred on a forecast to end-2018 for the sector. Forecast indicators include alcoholic and soft drink sales by value, volume and sub-sector and tea and coffee sales, among others.

Mass Grocery Retail Forecasts

Segmented the same way as BMI's food and drink chapters, the mass grocery retail section provides insight into a market's grocery retail industry, centred on a forecast to end-201 for the sector. Forecast indicators include mass grocery retail sales by format (including supermarkets, hypermarkets, convenience and discount stores) and a breakdown for the organised retail sector versus the traditional sector, among others.

Competitive Landscape & Profiles

Illustration of the industry via rankings tables comparing revenues, number of outlets and number of employees. BMI analyses each company's market position, business strategies and investment potential.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc