Business Monitor International


Estonia Autos Report

Published 31 October 2014

  • 55 pages
  • Instant access to your report online and PDF format through your account library
  • Free related articles sent monthly
 
$1,295.00
Estonia Autos Report

2014 has proved a positive year for new vehicle sales within Estonia. Over the first nine months of the year, passenger car (PC) sales were up by 5% year-on-year (y-o-y), at 15,874 units, according to figures from Estonia's association of car dealers and service companies (AMTEL). September's monthly performance was highly impressive, up 19% y-o-y, at 1,841 units for the month.

On the commercial vehicle side, 8M14 figures from the European Auto Manufacturers Association (ACEA) show a total of 1,884 light commercial vehicles (LCVs) sold in country, with a further 508 medium and heavy commercial vehicles sold, plus a further 79 buses, for a total of 2,471 units sold year-to-date.

Adding the 2,471 CV units to the 14,033 PCs sold over 8M14 makes for a total new vehicle market of 16,504 units. On current sales trends, this leaves the Estonian new vehicle sales market on target to hit BMI's forecast of 25,471 units for the full year.

Looking forward, BMI's Country Risk team believes that Estonia's economy has now turned the corner and will post relatively strong real GDP growth over the next two years. Robust private consumption growth resulted in real GDP growth reaching 2.4% y-o-y in Q214, while the reading for Q114 was revised up substantially, from -1.9% to 0.4%% y-o-y due to an alteration to the statistical agency's methodology. Consequently, in September, we revised up our 2014 real GDP growth forecast from 0.9%, to 1.8%.

Turning to private consumption, a key indicator of the potential demand for new vehicles within Estonia, we hold to our view that household spending will remain the primary driver of Estonian real GDP growth over the course of 2015 and into 2016. Strong private consumption in 2014 has been driven by nominal wage growth (declining but still positive) as well as consumer price deflation (-0.2% y-o-y in August), both of which have contributed to improving households' purchasing power. This will see household spending contribute 1.9 and 1.8...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Political
11
Economic
12
Industry Forecast
13
Table: Autos Total Market - Historical Data And Forecasts (Estonia 2012-2018)
13
Table: Motorcycle Market - Historical Data And Forecasts (Estonia 2012-2018)
13
Trade
15
Passenger Vehicles
15
Table: Passenger Car Market - Historical Data And Forecasts (Estonia 2012-2018)
15
Table: Estonia - Top 10 Best-Selling Passenger Car Brands, 9M14
16
Used Cars
17
Table: Estonia New And Used Car Imports, 2009-2013
17
Commercial Vehicles
18
Table: Commercial Vehicle Market - Historical Data And Forecasts (Estonia 2012-2018)
18
Table: Estonia, CV sales, 8M14
19
Suppliers
19
Alternative Fuels
20
Macroeconomic Forecasts
23
Economic Analysis
23
Table: Economic Activity (Estonia 2009-2018)
28
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
29
Europe - Risk/Reward Index
29
Table: Europe Autos Risk/Reward Ratings
32
Company Profile
34
Company Monitor
34
Amserv
38
Inchcape Motors
40
Regional Overview
43
Global Industry Overview
46
Table: The Internet Of Cars
46
Demographic Forecast
48
Estonia
48
Table: Estonia's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
49
Table: Estonia's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
50
Table: Estonia's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
51
Table: Estonia's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
51
Methodology
52
Industry Forecasts
52
Sector-Specific Methodology
53
Sources
53
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
54
Table: Automotive Risk/Reward Index Indicators And Weighting Of Indicators
55

The Estonia Autos Report features the latest data and forecasts covering production, sales, imports and exports.

Business Monitor International (BMI)'s Estonia Autos Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, auto associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the automotives market in Estonia.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent automotives industry forecasts on Estonia to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the Estonian automotives market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Estonian automotives sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Estonia.
  • Assess the activities and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Competitive Landscape Analysis.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts and views, covering production, sales and the introduction of new technology or products.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the autos sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series and forecasts to end- 2019 for all key industry indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:

Sales and production of motorcycles in units; total production of units; production by vehicle type (including cars, commercial vehicles, trucks and buses); total vehicle fleet size in units; sales by vehicle type, including passenger cars and commercial vehicles; fleet size by vehicle type, including passenger car, commercial vehicles and motorcycles; total vehicle trade balance in units; vehicle trade balance by vehicle type, including passenger car, commercial vehicle and motorcycle; car ownership measured as car density per 1,000 people.

BMI’s Autos Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Index provides investors (manufacturers, suppliers and dealers) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of a market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points. These provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each indices explained.

BMI Economic Forecasts

BMI forecasts to end-2019 for all headline macroeconomic indicators, including real GDP growth, inflation, fiscal balance, trade balance, current account and external debt.

Company Profiles*

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company  developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

Global, Regional and Country Industry Overviews

In-depth analysis of the major global and regional developments in the market, which can be linked with the country industry overview, providing cross-country  investment, product and financing trends that will affect each market, supported by BMI’s global and regional industry forecasts.

Sources

The Autos reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as manufacturing associations, statistical bureaus, government transport ministries, national chambers of commerce and industry, national statistical offices, government ministries and central banks and multinational companies.

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.

secure
Benefit from discounts when you add multiple products to your basket
2 Products SAVE 10%
3 Products SAVE 15%
4 Products SAVE 20%
5 Products SAVE 25%
6 Products SAVE 30%
7 - 20 Products SAVE 35%
21 Products or more SAVE 40%

Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc