Business Monitor International


Estonia Autos Report

Published 31 October 2014

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Estonia Autos Report

2014 has proved a positive year for new vehicle sales within Estonia. Over the first nine months of the year, passenger car (PC) sales were up by 5% year-on-year (y-o-y), at 15,874 units, according to figures from Estonia's association of car dealers and service companies (AMTEL). September's monthly performance was highly impressive, up 19% y-o-y, at 1,841 units for the month.

On the commercial vehicle side, 8M14 figures from the European Auto Manufacturers Association (ACEA) show a total of 1,884 light commercial vehicles (LCVs) sold in country, with a further 508 medium and heavy commercial vehicles sold, plus a further 79 buses, for a total of 2,471 units sold year-to-date.

Adding the 2,471 CV units to the 14,033 PCs sold over 8M14 makes for a total new vehicle market of 16,504 units. On current sales trends, this leaves the Estonian new vehicle sales market on target to hit BMI's forecast of 25,471 units for the full year.

Looking forward, BMI's Country Risk team believes that Estonia's economy has now turned the corner and will post relatively strong real GDP growth over the next two years. Robust private consumption growth resulted in real GDP growth reaching 2.4% y-o-y in Q214, while the reading for Q114 was revised up substantially, from -1.9% to 0.4%% y-o-y due to an alteration to the statistical agency's methodology. Consequently, in September, we revised up our 2014 real GDP growth forecast from 0.9%, to 1.8%.

Turning to private consumption, a key indicator of the potential demand for new vehicles within Estonia, we hold to our view that household spending will remain the primary driver of Estonian real GDP growth over the course of 2015 and into 2016. Strong private consumption in 2014 has been driven by nominal wage growth (declining but still positive) as well as consumer price deflation (-0.2% y-o-y in August), both of which have contributed to improving households' purchasing power. This will see household spending contribute 1.9 and 1.8...

Table of Contents

Executive Summary
5
SWOT Analysis
6
Estonia Auto Industry SWOT
6
Estonia Political SWOT
6
Estonia Economic SWOT
7
Estonia Business Environment SWOT
7
Global Overview
8
UK Boosts Europe, But Favourites Still Outperform
8
Table: Passenger Car Sales 8M12
8
Incentive Boom For Japan, US Powers On
8
CEE Regional Overview
13
Industry Risk/Reward Ratings
20
Poor Show From Western Europe Hurts Region's Score In BMI Ratings
20
Table: BMI Industry Risk/Reward Ratings For Autos In Europe
24
Industry Forecast Scenario
25
Table: Estonia Automotives Historical Data And Forecasts
25
Macroeconomic Forecast
27
Table: Estonia - Economic Activity
29
Competitive Landscape
30
Passenger Cars
30
Table: Estonia - Top 10 Best-Selling Car Manufacturers, 2011
30
Table: Estonia - Top 10 Best-Selling Passenger Car Models, 2011
31
Commercial Vehicles
32
Table: Estonia: Commercial Vehicle Sales - H112
32
Suppliers
33
Alternative Fuels
34
Company Profiles
38
Autoliv
38
Inchcape (Mazda)
39
Country Snapshot: Estonia Demographic Data
40
Section 1: Population
40
Demographic Indicators, 2005-2030
40
Rural/Urban Breakdown, 2005-2030
41
Section 2: Education And Healthcare
41
Education, 2002-2005
41
Vital Statistics, 2005-2030
41
Section 3: Labour Market And Spending Power
42
Employment Indicators, 2001-2006
42
Consumer Expenditure, 2000-2012 (US$)
42
Average Annual Wages, 2000-2012
43
BMI Forecast Modelling
44
44
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
44

The Estonia Autos Report features the latest data and forecasts covering production, sales, imports and exports.

Business Monitor International (BMI)'s Estonia Autos Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, auto associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the automotives market in Estonia.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent automotives industry forecasts on Estonia to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the Estonian automotives market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Estonian automotives sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Estonia.
  • Assess the activities and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Competitive Landscape Analysis.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts and views, covering production, sales and the introduction of new technology or products.

Global, Regional and Country Industry Overviews

In-depth analysis of the major global and regional developments in the market, which can be linked with the country industry overview, providing cross-country investment, product and financing trends that will affect each market, supported by BMI’s global and regional industry forecasts.

Business Environment Rankings

BMI's proprietary Autos Business Environment Rankings are a unique country-comparative Risk-Reward Rankings index that separately analyses the risks and rewards of operating in each market. It is aimed at investors (including manufacturers, suppliers and dealers) who seek to either identify and compare market opportunities, or evaluate country-specific operational challenges.

The rankings methodology makes sophisticated use of over 40 industries, economic and demographic data points.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:

Total production value (US$bn); total production of units; production by vehicle-type (including cars, commercial vehicles, trucks and buses); total sales value (US$bn); sales by vehicle-type, including passenger cars and commercial vehicles (vans and microbuses, pickups, trucks and buses, 4 wheel drive); total exports by value (US$bn) and by units; total imports by value (US$bn) and by units; contribution to GDP; employment in industry.

BMI Economic Forecasts

BMI forecasts to end-2018 for all headline macroeconomic indicators, including real GDP growth, inflation, fiscal balance, trade balance, current account and external debt.

Company Profiles

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

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