Business Monitor International


Equatorial Guinea Oil & Gas Report

Published 11 February 2014

  • 99 pages
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$1,295.00
Equatorial Guinea Oil & Gas Report

BMI View: Although the start of a number of small fields and continued interest in West Africa's deepwater are positive trends for Equatorial Guinea's oil and gas se ctor, t he temporary recovery in oil production will gave way to gradual downtrend, placing the country's heavily oil - dependent economy at risk. While new discoveries could to support an expansion of the country's LNG export capacity, uncertainty over the market and infrastructure has rendered investment decisions repeatedly delayed. Notwithstanding the possibility of new discoveries, we expect both oil and gas production in the West Africa n nation to gradually head lower over the course of the decade.

The key trends and developments in Equatorial Guinea's oil and gas sector are:

  • Since having peaked in 2005 at 375,477b/d, oil production in Equatorial Guinea has failed to engineer a strong enough recovery to permanently return to growth. While output fell to 297,000b/d in 2011, volumes have since managed notable gains on the back of the start of smaller fields offshore. We estimate production averaged 346,000b/d for 2013 and will continue to make incremental gains before peaking at 376,000b/d in 2015.

  • The start of new fields like Carla and later Alen will deliver gains over the course of our forecast period, but in our view are not enough to sustain the recovery in production over the longer term. While we see some upside from prospects under appraisal, such as Noble Energy's Diega and potential liquids from Ophir Energy's gas-rich Block R, we do not believe development of these prospects alone will be able to offset falling volumes from currently producing fields. Beyond 2017, we anticipate a steady decline in production unless further investment is made in exploration and production (E&P) with new discoveries being brought online.

  • Equatorial Guinea recently announced the awarding of a number of onshore and offshore blocks to small and mid-sized players. Traditional international...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Industry Forecast
10
Oil And Gas Reserves
10
Table: Equatorial Guinea Proven Oil & Gas Reserves And Total Petroleum Data - Historical Data And Forecasts, 2012-2017
10
Table: Equatorial Guinea Proven Oil & Gas Reserves And Total Petroleum Data - Long-Term Forecasts, 2018-2023
11
Oil Supply And Demand
13
Table: Equatorial Guinea Oil Production And Net Exports - Historical Data And Forecasts, 2012-2017
13
Table: Equatorial Guinea Oil Production And Net Exports - Long-Term Forecasts, 2018-2023
13
Refining And Oil Products Trade
19
Table: Equatorial Guinea Refining - Production And Consumption - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2012-2017
19
Table: Equatorial Guinea Refining - Production And Consumption - Long-Term Forecasts 2018-2023
20
Gas Supply And Demand
21
Table: Equatorial Guinea Gas Production, Consumption And Net Exports - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2012-2017
21
Table: Equatorial Guinea Gas Production, Consumption And Net Exports - Long-Term Forecasts, 2018-2023
22
Table: Block R 2012 Drilling Results
25
LNG
25
Table: Resource Requirements For LNG Options
28
Revenues/Import Costs
29
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
31
Oil & Gas - Africa - Risk/Reward Ratings
31
Table: BMI's Africa Oil And Gas Risk/Reward Ratings
32
Riches Lie Underground, While Above-Ground Risks Continue To Loom
32
Table: BMI's Africa Upstream Risk/Reward Ratings
34
An Underwhelming Downstream
39
Table: BMI's Africa Downstream Risk/Reward Ratings
39
Equatorial Guinea Risk/Reward Ratings
42
Equatorial Guinea Upstream Rating - Overview
42
Equatorial Guinea Downstream Rating - Overview
43
Market Overview
44
Oil and Gas Infrastructure
44
Oil Refineries
44
Table: Downstream Projects
44
Service Stations
45
Oil Terminals
45
Oil Pipelines
45
LNG Terminals
45
Table: Equatorial Guinea LNG Infrastructure
46
Equatorial Guinea Energy Market Overview
46
Overview/State Role
49
Licensing And Regulation
49
Government Policy
49
Licensing Rounds
50
International Energy Relations
51
Table: Equatorial Guinea - Upstream Projects Database
51
Competitive Landscape
52
Table: Key Players - Equatorial Guinea Energy Sector
53
Company Profile
54
GEPetrol
54
ExxonMobil
57
Marathon Oil
59
Other Summaries
62
Regional Overview
66
Africa Overview
66
Offshore Rising
66
Unconventionals : New Frontier
69
East Africa: Offshore Gas, Onshore Oil
69
Downstream Blues
71
High Risk Continent
73
Global Industry Overview
76
Appendix
83
Africa - Regional Appendix
83
Table: Oil Consumption - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 ('000b/d)
83
Table: Oil Consumption - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2022 ('000b/d)
84
Table: Oil Production - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 ('000b/d)
84
Table: Oil Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2022 ('000b/d)
85
Table: Refining Capacity - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 ('000b/d)
86
Table: Refining Capacity - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2022 ('000b/d)
86
Table: Gas Consumption - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 (bcm)
87
Table: Gas Consumption - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2022 (bcm)
88
Table: Gas Production - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 (bcm)
88
Table: Gas Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2022 (bcm)
89
Table: LNG Net Exports - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 (bcm)
90
Table: LNG Net Exports - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2022 (bcm)
90
Glossary
91
Table: Glossary Of Terms
91
Methodology
93
Industry Forecast Methodology
93
Source
95
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
95
Table: Bmi's Oil & Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Ratings
97
Table: Weighting
99

The Equatorial Guinea Oil & Gas Report has been researched at source and features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s independent forecasts for Equatorial Guinea including major indicators for oil, gas and LNG, covering all major indicators including reserves, production, consumption, refining capacity, prices, export volumes and values. The report includes full analysis of industry trends and prospects, national and multinational companies and changes in the regulatory environment.

BMI's Equatorial Guinea Oil & Gas Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Equatoguinean oil and gas industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent oil and gas industry forecasts for Equatorial Guinea to test consensus views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Equatoguinean oil and gas market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Equatoguinean oil and gas sector through reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Equatorial Guinea.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and Competitive Landscape Tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI's key forecasts and industry analysis, covering oil and gas reserves, supply, demand and refining, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.

Regional Overview

Regional perspective on size and value of industry sector; comparative rankings by production, refining, imports and exports of oil, gas and LNG.

Business Environment Ratings

BMI's Oil and Gas Business Environment Ratings provide a country-comparative Risk-Reward Ratings index aimed at investors (independents, NOCs, IOCs and oil services companies) in the upstream and downstream markets.

The ratings methodology makes sophisticated use of more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points and is part of BMI's integrated Country Risk-Industry Ratings products.

Oil Market Outlook and Oil Products Outlook

Based on our country coverage of over 99% of global oil and gas production and consumption, BMI provides demand, supply and price forecasts to end-2018 for oil, gas and oil products

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:

Pricing: Oil price (US$/bbl, WTI, Brent, OPEC basket, Urals); Oil products prices (unleaded gasoline, gasoil/diesel, jet/kerosene - US$/bbl) at global hubs

Production, Consumption, Capacity and Reserves: Proven oil reserves (bn barrels), production, consumption, refinery capacity and throughputs (`000b/d); Proven gas reserves (tcm), production and consumption (bcm)

Imports and Exports: Oil exports/imports (`000b/d), value of oil exports/imports (US$mn - BMI base case); Value of oil exports at constant US$50/bbl and constant US$100/bbl (US$mn); Gas exports/imports (bcm), Value of gas exports/imports (US$mn); Value of gas exports/imports at constant US$50/bbl and US$100/bbl (US$mn); Value of petroleum exports/imports (US$mn); Value of petroleum exports/imports at constant US$50/bbl and US$100/bbl (US$mn)

BMI Macroeconomic Forecasts

BMI forecasts to end-2018 for all headline macroeconomic indicators, including real GDP growth, inflation, fiscal balance, trade balance, current account and external debt.

Competitive Landscape

Comparative company analyses by US$ sales, % share of total sales, number of employees, year established, ownership structure, oil production ('000b/d), gas production (bcm), downstream capacity ('000b/d) and % market share.

Company Profiles

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc