Business Monitor International


Equatorial Guinea Oil & Gas Report

Published 19 May 2014

  • 99 pages
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$1,295.00
Equatorial Guinea Oil & Gas Report

BMI View: Although the start of a number of small fields and continued interest in West Africa's deepwater are positive trends for Equatorial Guinea's oil and gas se ctor, t he temporary recovery in oil production will g i ve way to gradual downtrend, placing the country's heavily oil - dependent economy at risk. While new discoveries could support an expansion of the country's LNG export capacity, uncertainty over the market and infrastructure has rendered investment decisions repeatedly delayed. Notwithstanding the possibility of new discoveries, we expect oil production to gradually head lower over the course of the decade.

The key trends and developments in Equatorial Guinea's oil and gas sector are:

  • Since having peaked in 2005 at 375,477 barrels per day (b/d), oil production in Equatorial Guinea has failed to demonstrate strong enough recovery to permanently return to growth. While output fell to 297,000b/d in 2013, volumes have since managed notable gains on the back of the start of smaller fields offshore. We estimate production averaged 346,000b/d for 2013 and will continue to make incremental gains before peaking at 375,000b/d in 2015.

  • The start of new fields like Carla and later Alen will deliver gains over the course of our forecast period, but in our view are not enough to sustain the recovery in production over the longer term. While we see some upside from prospects under appraisal, such as Noble Energy's Diega and potential liquids from Ophir Energy's gas-rich Block R, we do not believe development of these prospects alone will be able to offset falling volumes from currently producing fields. Beyond 2017, we anticipate a steady decline in production unless further investment is made in exploration and production (E&P) with new discoveries being brought online.

  • Equatorial Guinea recently announced the awarding of a number of onshore and offshore blocks to small and mid-sized players. Traditional international oil companies (IOCs)...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Industry Forecast
10
Oil And Gas Reserves
10
Table: Equatorial Guinea Proven Oil & Gas Reserves And Total Petroleum Data, 2012-2017
10
Table: Equatorial Guinea Proven Oil & Gas Reserves And Total Petroleum Data, 2018-2023
11
Oil Supply And Demand
13
Table: Equatorial Guinea Oil Production And Net Exports - Historical Data And Forecasts, 2012-2017
13
Table: Equatorial Guinea Oil Production And Net Exports - Long-Term Forecasts, 2018-2023
13
Refining And Oil Products Trade
20
Table: Equatorial Guinea Refining - Production And Consumption - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2012-2017
20
Table: Equatorial Guinea Refining - Production And Consumption - Long-Term Forecasts 2018-2023
21
Gas Supply And Demand
22
Table: Equatorial Guinea Gas Production, Consumption And Net Exports - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2012-2017
22
Table: Equatorial Guinea Gas Production, Consumption And Net Exports - Long-Term Forecasts, 2018-2023
22
Table: Block R 2012 Drilling Results
26
LNG
26
Table: Resource Requirements For LNG Options
29
Revenues/Import Costs
31
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
32
Africa - Risk/Reward Ratings
32
Table: BMI's Africa Oil And Gas Risk/Reward Ratings
33
Riches Lie Underground, While Above-Ground Risks Continue To Loom
33
Table: BMI's Africa Upstream Risk/Reward Ratings
35
An Underwhelming Downstream
40
Table: BMI's Africa Downstream Risk/Reward Ratings
40
Equatorial Guinea Risk/Reward Ratings
43
Equatorial Guinea Upstream Rating - Overview
43
Equatorial Guinea Downstream Rating - Overview
44
Market Overview
45
Oil and Gas Infrastructure
45
Oil Refineries
45
Table: Downstream Projects
45
Service Stations
46
Oil Terminals
46
Oil Pipelines
46
LNG Terminals
46
Table: Equatorial Guinea LNG Infrastructure
47
Equatorial Guinea Energy Market Overview
48
Overview/State Role
51
Licensing And Regulation
51
Government Policy
51
Licensing Rounds
52
International Energy Relations
53
Table: Equatorial Guinea - Upstream Projects Database
53
Competitive Landscape
54
Competitive Landscape Summary
54
Table: Key Players - Equatorial Guinea Energy Sector
55
Company Profile
56
GEPetrol
56
ExxonMobil
59
Marathon Oil
61
Other Summaries
64
Regional Overview
68
Africa Overview
68
Rising Offshore Interest
68
Unconventionals : New Frontier
70
East Africa: Offshore Gas, Onshore Oil
71
Downstream Blues
74
High-Risk Continent
76
Global Industry Overview
80
Global Energy Market Overview
80
OPEC Reconsiders Modus Operandi
82
Production Outages Look Likely To Persist
83
Global Oil Demand Picks Up
84
Capex Growth Cycle Shifting Gears
86
Table: BMI Oil Price Forecasts, Annual Average, USD/bbl
86
Appendix
89
Africa - Regional Appendix
89
Table: Oil Consumption - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 ('000b/d)
89
Table: Oil Consumption - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 ('000b/d)
90
Table: Oil Production - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 ('000b/d)
90
Table: Oil Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 ('000b/d)
91
Table: Refining Capacity - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 ('000b/d)
92
Table: Refining Capacity - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 ('000b/d)
92
Table: Gas Consumption - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 (bcm)
93
Table: Gas Consumption - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 (bcm)
94
Table: Gas Production - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 (bcm)
94
Table: Gas Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 (bcm)
95
Table: LNG Net Exports - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 (bcm)
96
Table: LNG Net Exports - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 (bcm)
96
Glossary
97
Table: Glossary Of Terms
97
Methodology
99
Industry Forecast Methodology
99
Source
101
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
101
Table: Bmi's Oil & Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Ratings
103
Table: Weighting
104

The Equatorial Guinea Oil & Gas Report has been researched at source and features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s independent forecasts for Equatorial Guinea including major indicators for oil, gas and LNG, covering all major indicators including reserves, production, consumption, refining capacity, prices, export volumes and values. The report includes full analysis of industry trends and prospects, national and multinational companies and changes in the regulatory environment.

BMI's Equatorial Guinea Oil & Gas Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Equatoguinean oil and gas industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent oil and gas industry forecasts for Equatorial Guinea to test consensus views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Equatoguinean oil and gas market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Equatoguinean oil and gas sector through reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Equatorial Guinea.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and Competitive Landscape Tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI's key forecasts and industry analysis, covering oil and gas reserves, supply, demand and refining, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.

Regional Overview

Regional perspective on size and value of industry sector; comparative rankings by production, refining, imports and exports of oil, gas and LNG.

Business Environment Rankings

BMI's Oil and Gas Business Environment Rankings provide a country-comparative Risk-Reward Rankings index aimed at investors (independents, NOCs, IOCs and oil services companies) in the upstream and downstream markets.

The rankings methodology makes sophisticated use of more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points and is part of BMI's integrated Country Risk-Industry Rankings products.

Oil Market Outlook and Oil Products Outlook

Based on our country coverage of over 99% of global oil and gas production and consumption, BMI provides demand, supply and price forecasts to end-2018 for oil, gas and oil products

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:

Pricing: Oil price (US$/bbl, WTI, Brent, OPEC basket, Urals); Oil products prices (unleaded gasoline, gasoil/diesel, jet/kerosene - US$/bbl) at global hubs

Production, Consumption, Capacity and Reserves: Proven oil reserves (bn barrels), production, consumption, refinery capacity and throughputs (`000b/d); Proven gas reserves (tcm), production and consumption (bcm)

Imports and Exports: Oil exports/imports (`000b/d), value of oil exports/imports (US$mn - BMI base case); Value of oil exports at constant US$50/bbl and constant US$100/bbl (US$mn); Gas exports/imports (bcm), Value of gas exports/imports (US$mn); Value of gas exports/imports at constant US$50/bbl and US$100/bbl (US$mn); Value of petroleum exports/imports (US$mn); Value of petroleum exports/imports at constant US$50/bbl and US$100/bbl (US$mn)

BMI Macroeconomic Forecasts

BMI forecasts to end-2018 for all headline macroeconomic indicators, including real GDP growth, inflation, fiscal balance, trade balance, current account and external debt.

Competitive Landscape

Comparative company analyses by US$ sales, % share of total sales, number of employees, year established, ownership structure, oil production ('000b/d), gas production (bcm), downstream capacity ('000b/d) and % market share.

Company Profiles

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc