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Emerging Europe Monitor - South East Europe

Published 24 July 2014

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Emerging Europe Monitor - South East Europe

BMI View: Recently released data from the National Institute Of Statistics (INE) supports our view that inflation would ease in Q413 in Romania, with the consumer price index (CPI) equalling record lows and growing by just 1.8% year-on-year (y-o-y) in November, from 1.9% y-o-y the previous month (see chart below). The low reading - analysts had expected a 2.2% y-o-y CPI rise - means that inflation remains comfortably below the National Bank of Romania (NBR)'s 2.5% target, and adds weight to our long-held view that the bank will cut interest rates to 3.50% in Q114, compared to what we believe is a more hawkish outlook implied in interest rate swap markets.

ROMANIA - MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS
2011 2012 Latest Period 2013f 2014f
Population, mn 3 21.8 e 21.8 e - - 21.7 21.6
Nominal GDP, US$bn 4 182.6 169.4 - - 192.7 188.1
Nominal GDP, RONbn 4 556.7 587.5 - - 640.3 666.6
GDP per capita, US$ 4 8,549 7,968 - - 9,102 8,926
Real GDP growth, % y-o-y 1,4 2.2 0.7 4.1 Q313 2.6 2.8
Unemployment, % of labour force, eop 5 5.1 5.6 7.3 Oct 5.3 5.0
Industrial production, % y-o-y, ave 5 6.0 0.5 9.9 Oct 4.5 4.7
Budget balance, % of GDP 6 -5.6 -2.9 - - -2.7 -2.5
Consumer price inflation, % y-o-y, eop 5 3.1 5.0 1.8 Nov 3.3 1.9
Central Bank policy rate, % eop 6 6.00 5.25 4.00 Nov 4.00 3.50
Exchange rate RON/US$, eop 2,7 3.34 3.37 3.29 18-Dec 3.27 3.64
Exchange rate RON/EUR, eop 2,7 4.32 4.14 4.46 18-Dec 4.48 4.55
Goods imports, EURbn 6 52.7 52.4 30.1 Jan-Oct 44.1 53.3
Goods exports, EURbn 6 45.3 45.1 28.1 Jan-Oct 41.1 49.9
Balance of trade in goods, EURbn 6 -7.4 -7.4 -1.8 Jan-Oct -2.9

Part of the Emerging Europe Monitor series of newsletters, South-East Europe Monitor provides a source of prime intelligence on Albania, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Croatia, Macedonia, Montenegro, Romania, Serbia, Slovenia and Turkey. It gives you advance warning of key changes in the business environment; regular appraisals of country risk; clear insights into economic and financial trends; and competitive intelligence on company and industry-wide developments and opportunities.

With succinct country-by-country analyses, hard-to-find data, and authoritative 24-month forecasts covering government, economy, finance and the business environment, South-East Europe Monitor is the answer to your strategic information needs on this key European region.

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