Political uncertainty will continue to affect the Egyptian economy in 2014 as the country continues through its rocky transitional period towards democracy. However, the announcement by Field Marshall Sisi in March that he would run for president - a post BMI believes he will almost certainly win - should serve to reduce political risk. We believe that his victory in the upcoming elections will provide a veneer of political legitimacy, thereby releasing US aid flows, and should help the economy get back on track.
Increased security would help in reviving tourism, and other industries, and serve to boost container volumes through Egypt's ports. Equally, should investment start flowing into the country once more then dry bulk volumes for infrastructure projects could also see an uptick.
The presence of the Suez Canal in Egyptian territory provides an important source of income in fees and associated businesses to the Egyptian economy; those ports expected to see strongest growth in 2014 are those located near the canal, such as East Port Said, which will also benefit from the improved global macroeconomic picture.
Headline Industry Data
2014 total tonnage throughput at El Dekheila is forecast to grow by 1.8% to 25.89mn tonnes, and to average 2.9% per annum to 2018.
2014 East Port Said container throughput growth forecast at 6.2% to reach 3.29mn twenty-foot equivalent units (TEUs), and to average 6.8% growth to 2018.
2014 Egyptian trade forecast to grow by 4.0%, and to average growth of 6.1% over the medium term.
Key Industry Trends
UASC's A-E Strategy Moves Ahead With East Port Said Container Investment: United Arab Shipping Company's (UASC) increased focus on the Asia-Europe trade route continues to develop, with the shipping line set to invest in a planned second container terminal at Egypt's East Port Said. The port already operates as a box transhipment hub for the Suez Canal, playing a vital role on the Asia-Europe container route.
SCCT Plans To...