Business Monitor International


Egypt Real Estate Report

Published 25 June 2014

  • 69 pages
  • Instant access to your report online and PDF format through your account library
  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
 
$1,295.00
Egypt Real Estate Report

BMI View: The Real Estate sector in Egypt will continue to stagnate as the economy h as yet to recover and political unrest continues. W e believe that rental rate s will rise in Cairo, New Cairo, and 6th of October City due to a stagnation of new supply , combined with slightly increasing demand, especially for space in safer suburbs such as New Cairo and 6th of October City. Nevertheless , future political turmoil might affect negatively all sectors, but specifically Cairo and Giza as businesses flee to the safety of the outskirts.

Egypt has long-term potential, which is being undermined by the steady risk of instability and will be characterised by the aftershocks of the Arab Spring in the short-to-medium term. It is unlikely to have a swift economic recovery in Egypt, although we remain confident in the long term, our most recent data continue to reveal the tangible effects of Egypt's uneasy political transition on the commercial real estate market, with retail space suffering particularly from the country's volatility due to its dependence on tourism.

The Egyptian economy is stuck in a negative spiral, which it does not appear likely to escape soon. Frequent outburst in violence needs to end and greater clarity on the medium-term policy trajectory are required for Egypt to recover, however, we are least optimistic that these requirements are met in the near term. Much is often said about the need to sign a long-awaited IMF Stand-By Arrangement, which would certainly help the country by providing a key source of external financial assistance and forcing necessary structural economic reforms. Egypt by remaining unpredictable, its economy will take time to recover from both the economic crisis as well as its multiple coups, and the less FDI will come in as investors move on to more stable nations.

Egypt currently has a decent supply of office stock, mainly utilised by the energy and banking sectors. While supply is slowly increasing, the political...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Political
11
Economic
12
Business Environment
14
Industry Forecast
15
Office
15
Table: Office Forecast Rents - (EGP/sq m/month)
16
Table: Office Forecast Net Yield, 2011-2018 (%)
16
Retail
16
Table: Retail Forecast Rents - (EGP/sq m/month)
17
Table: Retail Forecast Net Yield, 2011-2018 (%)
17
Industrial
17
Table: Industrial Forecast Rents - (EGP/sq m/month)
18
Table: Industrial Forecast Net Yield, 2011-2018 (%)
18
Construction And Infrastructure Forecast Scenario
18
Table: Construction And Infrastructure Industry Data (Egypt 2012-2017)
19
Table: Construction And Infrastructure Industry Data (Egypt 2018-2023)
20
Macroeconomic Forecasts
25
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
30
Middle East And Africa Risk/Reward Ratings
30
Table: Middle East And Africa Real Estate Risk/Reward Ratings
30
Egypt - Risk/Reward Ratings
31
Rewards
31
Risks
31
Market Overview
33
Office
36
Table: Terms Of Rental Contract/Leases - H213
37
Table: Historic Rents - 2012-2014 (EGP/sq m/month)
37
Table: Net Yield, 2012-2014 (%)
38
Retail
38
Table: Terms of Rental Contract/Leases - H213
39
Table: Historic Rents - 2012-2014 (EGP/sq m/month)
40
Table: Net Yield, 2012-2014 (%)
40
Egypt Retail Sales Indicators
41
Table: Egypt's Retail Sales Indicators, 2010-2017
41
Industrial
42
Table: Terms Of Rental Contract/Leases - H213
42
Table: Historic Rents - 2012-2014 (EGP/sq m/month)
43
Table: Net Yield, 2012-2014 (%)
44
Competitive Landscape
45
Company Profile
47
Egyptian Resorts Company
47
Saudi Egyptian Construction Company (SECON)
50
Sodic
52
TMG Holding
54
Demographic Forecast
57
Demographic Outlook
57
Table: Egypt's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
58
Table: Egypt's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
59
Table: Egypt's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
60
Table: Egypt's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
60
Methodology
61
Industry Forecast Methodology
61
Sources
62
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
62
Table: Real Estate Risk/Reward Ratings Indicators
64
Table: Weighting Of Indicators
65

The Egypt Real Estate Report features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s market assessment and independent forecasts of major construction projects in the residential and commercial markets, plus rental prices and yields in major cities. The report critically analyses the prospects for real estate within the broader economic and financial context - both domestic and global - via our econometrically-modelled and clearly explained banking and economic forecasts and follows this through to evaluate the implications for REITs.

BMI's Egypt Real Estate Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, business investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the real estate industry in Egypt.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent real estate industry forecasts for Egypt to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Egyptian real estate market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in Egypt through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity).

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis covering real estate and construction, regulatory changes, major investments and projects and significant national and multinational company developments.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the real estate sector and within the broader political, financial, economic and business environment.

Market Overview

Overview of the real estate sector, including analysis of existing/planned real estate developments and emerging industry trends in the office, industrial and commercial sectors.

Market Analysis

Features detailed city-level data and analysis on rental prices, yields, contract terms and real estate availability with separate chapters covering the office, retail and industrial sub-sectors.

Industry Forecast Scenario

Historical data series (2010-2012) and forecasts to end-2018 for the domestic real estate industry and for the local and global finance industry. Indicators include:

Real Estate: Office, retail and industrial real estate yields for all major cities (%); short-term forecasts on minimum and maximum real estate rental prices by sub-sector (US$ per square metre, and local currency per square metre)

Construction: Industry value (US$bn); contribution to GDP (%); employment (`000); real growth (%)

Economy: Economic growth (%); nominal GDP (US$bn); unemployment (%); interest rates (%); exchange rate (against US$)

Business Environment Rankings

BMI's Real Estate Business Environment Rankings provide a country-comparative Risk-Reward Rankings index aimed at investors (real estate vendors, construction companies and financial investors) in the regional real estate market.

The rankings methodology makes sophisticated use of over 40 industry, economic and demographic data points.

Company Profiles

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses.

The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc