Business Monitor International


Egypt Real Estate Report

Published 23 January 2014

  • 69 pages
  • Instant access to your report online and PDF format through your account library
  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
 
$1,295.00
Egypt Real Estate Report

BMI View: We believe that the real estate sector in Egypt will continue to stagnate in the face of a depressed economy and continuing political unrest. However, we have predicted a rise in rental rates in Cairo, New Cairo, and 6 th of October City due to a stagnation of new supply to cover slightly increasing d emand, especially for space in safer suburb s such as New Cairo and 6 th of October City . Future political upheaval may continue to negatively affect all sectors, but specifically Cairo and Giza as businesses flee to the safety of the outskirts.

In spite of Egypt's long-term potential, the country continues to be susceptible to instability and will be characterised by the aftershocks of the Arab Spring in the short-to-medium term. We see little prospect for a swift economic recovery in Egypt. Although we remain bullish in the long term, our most recent data continue to reveal the tangible effects of Egypt's uneasy political transition on the commercial real estate market, with retail space suffering particularly from the country's volatility due to its dependence on tourism.

The Egyptian economy is stuck in a rut from which it does not appear likely to escape anytime soon. What it needs most to recover - namely an end to frequent outbursts in violent unrest, and greater clarity on the medium-term policy trajectory - are the things for which we are the least optimistic on in the near term. Much is often said about the need to sign a long-awaited IMF Stand-By Arrangement, which would certainly aide the country by providing a key source of external financial assistance and forcing necessary structural economic reforms. The more volatile Egypt becomes, the slower its economy will recover from both the economic crisis as well as its multiple coups, and the less FDI will come in as investors move on to more stable nations.

Egypt currently has a decent supply of office stock, mainly utilized by the energy and banking sectors. While supply is slowly...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Political
11
Economic
12
Business Environment
14
Industry Forecast
15
Office
15
Table: Office Forecast Rents - (EGP per m2/month)
15
Table: Office Forecast Net Yield, 2011-2018 (%)
16
Retail
16
Table: Retail Forecast Rents - (EGP per m2/month)
16
Table: Retail Forecast Net Yield, 2011-2018 (%)
17
Industrial
17
Table: Industrial Forecast Rents - (EGP per m2/month)
17
Table: Industrial Forecast Net Yield, 2011-2018 (%)
18
Construction And Infrastructure Forecast Scenario
18
Table: Egypt Construction And Infrastructure Industry Data, 2011-2016
18
Table: Egypt Construction And Infrastructure Industry Data, 2017-2022
19
Macroeconomic Forecasts
26
Economic Analysis
26
Positive Long-Term Outlook Remains
32
Table: Egypt - Economic Activity
33
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
34
Middle East And Africa Risk/Reward Ratings
34
Table: Middle East And Africa Real Estate Risk/Reward Ratings
34
Egypt - Risk/Reward Ratings
34
Rewards
35
Risks
35
Market Overview
37
Office
40
Table: Terms Of Rental Contract/Leases - H113
41
Table: Historic Rents - 2012-2013 (EGP per m2/month)
41
Table: Net Yield, 2011-2013 (%)
42
Retail
42
Table: Terms of Rental Contract/Leases - 2013
43
Table: Historic Rents - 2012-2013 (EGP per m2/month)
44
Table: Net Yield, 2012-2013 (%)
44
Egypt Retail Sales Indicators
44
Table: Egypt's Retail Sales Indicators, 2010-2017
44
Industrial
46
Table: Terms Of Rental Contract/Leases - 2013
46
Table: Historic Rents - 2012-2013 (EGP per m2/month)
48
Table: Net Yield, 2011-2013 (%)
48
Competitive Landscape
49
Company Profile
51
Egyptian Resorts Company
51
Saudi Egyptian Construction Company (SECON)
54
Sodic
56
TMG Holding
58
Demographic Forecast
61
Demographic Outlook
61
Table: Egypt's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
62
Table: Egypt's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
63
Table: Egypt's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
64
Table: Egypt's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
64
Methodology
65
Industry Forecast Methodology
65
Sources
66
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
66
Table: Real Estate Risk/Reward Ratings Indicators
68
Table: Weighting Of Indicators
69

The Egypt Real Estate Report features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s market assessment and independent forecasts of major construction projects in the residential and commercial markets, plus rental prices and yields in major cities. The report critically analyses the prospects for real estate within the broader economic and financial context - both domestic and global - via our econometrically-modelled and clearly explained banking and economic forecasts and follows this through to evaluate the implications for REITs.

BMI's Egypt Real Estate Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, business investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the real estate industry in Egypt.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent real estate industry forecasts for Egypt to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Egyptian real estate market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in Egypt through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity).

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis covering real estate and construction, regulatory changes, major investments and projects and significant national and multinational company developments.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the real estate sector and within the broader political, financial, economic and business environment.

Market Overview

Overview of the real estate sector, including analysis of existing/planned real estate developments and emerging industry trends in the office, industrial and commercial sectors.

Market Analysis

Features detailed city-level data and analysis on rental prices, yields, contract terms and real estate availability with separate chapters covering the office, retail and industrial sub-sectors.

Industry Forecast Scenario

Historical data series (2010-2012) and forecasts to end-2018 for the domestic real estate industry and for the local and global finance industry. Indicators include:

Real Estate: Office, retail and industrial real estate yields for all major cities (%); short-term forecasts on minimum and maximum real estate rental prices by sub-sector (US$ per square metre, and local currency per square metre)

Construction: Industry value (US$bn); contribution to GDP (%); employment (`000); real growth (%)

Economy: Economic growth (%); nominal GDP (US$bn); unemployment (%); interest rates (%); exchange rate (against US$)

Business Environment Ratings

BMI's Real Estate Business Environment Ratings provide a country-comparative Risk-Reward Ratings index aimed at investors (real estate vendors, construction companies and financial investors) in the regional real estate market.

The ratings methodology makes sophisticated use of over 40 industry, economic and demographic data points.

Company Profiles

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses.

The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc