Business Monitor International


Egypt Oil & Gas Report

Published 28 October 2014

  • 130 pages
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  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
 
$1,295.00
Egypt Oil & Gas Report

BMI View:   I nvestor sentiment in Egypt has improved as political stability returns and the government begins repayments owed to oil companies. We forecast upside for investment and production in natural gas projects, though note fuels subsidies continue to disincentivise investment in the downstream.

Headline Forecasts (Egypt 2012-2018)
  2012 2013e 2014f 2015f 2016f 2017f 2018f
Crude, NGPL & other liquids prod, 000b/d 722.8 715.9 713.1 718.5 712.9 707.8 703.2
Refined products production & ethanol, 000b/d 508.9 516.6 524.3 532.2 540.2 571.0 579.5
Refined products consumption & ethanol, 000b/d 792.4 816.2 827.6 834.2 841.7 850.2 855.4
Dry natural gas production, bcm 60.8 56.1 58.3 62.4 62.1 63.6 65.8
Dry natural gas consumption, bcm 53.9 56.1 58.3 62.4 64.8 67.2 69.5
e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: EIA, BMI

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We highlight the following trends and developments in Egypt's oil and gas sector:

  • Confidence is returning to the Egyptian upstream. Total, BP, Eni, Dana Gas, Petroceltic and Edison have all been awarded new licences in the Nile Delta and Mediterranean Sea.

  • RWE Dea's NWK well was put in to production by the middle of 2014, adding peak output of around 1.4bcm and 1.6bcm a year. We forecast gas production to return to growth in 2014.

  • In August, BP announced first gas from its DEKA project at a rate of 0.5bcm, ramping up to 2.3bcm by mid-2015.

  • In September 2014, BP began drilling the Atoll-1 well in the Nile Delta, close to the Salamat deepwater discovery of 2013. The well is expected to reach a total depth 7,400m.

  • Exploration efforts continue to show positive results and strong below-ground potential. Over recent months RWE Dea, Apache, IPR and Circle Oil have all made discoveries. In particular the Western Desert and the Nile Delta have proved the most...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Oil & Gas SWOT
9
Industry Forecast
11
Oil And Gas Reserves
11
Table: Egypt Proven Oil And Gas Reserves And Total Petroleum Data, 2012-2017
11
Table: Egypt Proven Oil And Gas Reserves And Total Petroleum Data, 2018-2023
12
Oil Supply And Demand
14
Table: Egypt Oil Production And Net Exports, 2012-2017
14
Table: Egypt Oil Production And Net Exports, 2018-2023
14
Gas Supply And Demand
16
Table: Egypt Gas Production, Consumption And Net Exports, 2012-2017
16
Table: Egypt Gas Production, Consumption And Net Exports, 2018-2023
17
Table: New Natural Gas Subsidies For Grid Connected Users
20
LNG & Gas Trade
20
Refining And Oil Products Trade
21
Table: Egypt Refining - Production And Consumption, 2012-2017
21
Table: Egypt Refining - Production And Consumption, 2018-2023
21
Key Risks To BMI's Forecast Scenario
24
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
25
Egypt - Risk/Reward Ratings
25
Middle East - Risk/Reward Ratings
26
Table: BMI's Middle East Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Ratings (RRRs)
27
Table: Middle East Upstream Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Rating
29
Table: Middle East Downstream Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Rating
31
Market Overview
33
Egypt Energy Market Overview
33
Regulation
33
Political Regime
33
Fiscal Regime
34
Table: Egyptian Tax Regime
34
Licensing Rounds
34
International Energy Relations
35
Oil And Gas Infrastructure
36
Oil Refineries
36
Table: Refineries In Egypt
36
Service Stations
37
Oil Storage Facilities
38
Oil Terminals/Ports
38
Oil Pipelines
38
LNG Terminals
38
Table: LNG Terminals In Egypt
39
Gas Pipelines
39
Competitive Landscape
41
Competitive Landscape Summary
41
Table: Key Players - Egyptian Energy Sector
42
Table: Key Upstream Players
43
Table: Key Downstream Players
44
Company Profile
45
Egyptian General Petroleum Corporation
45
BP Egypt
49
Eni Egypt
52
Shell Egypt
56
BG Egypt
60
Apache Energy
65
Dana Gas
69
Edison
74
RWE Dea
77
Other Summaries
80
Regional Overview
86
Middle East Energy Market Overview
86
Proven Producers Invest To Lift Oil Output
86
OPEC: Major Hurdles Ahead
91
Consuming It All
93
Gas Rises, But Consumption Does Too
95
Global Industry Overview
99
Global Energy Market Overview
99
OPEC Reconsiders Modus Operandi
101
Production Outages Look Likely To Persist
102
Global Oil Demand Picks Up
103
Capex Growth Cycle Shifting Gears
105
Table: BMI Oil Price Forecasts, Annual Average, USD/bbl
105
Appendix
108
Middle East - Regional Appendix
108
Table: Oil Consumption - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 ('000b/d)
108
Table: Oil Consumption - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 ('000b/d)
109
Table: Oil Production - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 ('000b/d)
109
Table: Oil Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 ('000b/d)
110
Table: Refining Capacity - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 ('000b/d)
110
Table: Refining Capacity - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 ('000b/d)
111
Table: Gas Consumption - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 (bcm)
111
Table: Gas Consumption, 2015-2023 (bcm)
112
Table: Gas Production - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 (bcm)
112
Table: Gas Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 (bcm)
113
Table: Net LNG Exports - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 (bcm)
113
Table: Net LNG Exports - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 (bcm)
114
Egypt - Refined Products Breakdown, 10-Year Forecast
115
Table: Egypt Refined Petroleum Products, Production Breakdown
115
Table: Egypt Refined Petroleum Products, Production Breakdown
116
Table: Egypt Refined Petroleum Products, Consumption Breakdown
117
Table: Egypt Refined Petroleum Products, Consumption Breakdown
118
Table: Egypt Refined Petroleum Products, Net Exports Breakdown
119
Table: Egypt Refined Petroleum Products, Net Exports Breakdown
120
Glossary
122
Table: Glossary Of Terms
122
Methodology
124
Industry Forecast Methodology
124
Source
126
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
126
Table: Bmi's Oil & Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Ratings
128
Table: Weighting
129

The Egypt Oil & Gas Report has been researched at source and features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s independent forecasts for Egypt including major indicators for oil, gas and LNG, covering all major indicators including reserves, production, consumption, refining capacity, prices, export volumes and values. The report includes full analysis of industry trends and prospects, national and multinational companies and changes in the regulatory environment.

BMI's Egypt Oil & Gas Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Egyptian oil and gas industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent oil and gas industry forecasts for Egypt to test consensus views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Egyptian oil and gas market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Egyptian oil and gas sector through reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Egypt.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and Competitive Landscape Tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI's key forecasts and industry analysis, covering oil and gas reserves, supply, demand and refining, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.

Regional Overview

Regional perspective on size and value of industry sector; comparative rankings by production, refining, imports and exports of oil, gas and LNG.

Business Environment Rankings

BMI's Oil and Gas Business Environment Rankings provide a country-comparative Risk-Reward Rankings index aimed at investors (independents, NOCs, IOCs and oil services companies) in the upstream and downstream markets.

The rankings methodology makes sophisticated use of more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points and is part of BMI's integrated Country Risk-Industry Rankings products.

Oil Market Outlook and Oil Products Outlook

Based on our country coverage of over 99% of global oil and gas production and consumption, BMI provides demand, supply and price forecasts to end-2018 for oil, gas and oil products

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:

Pricing: Oil price (US$/bbl, WTI, Brent, OPEC basket, Urals); Oil products prices (unleaded gasoline, gasoil/diesel, jet/kerosene - US$/bbl) at global hubs

Production, Consumption, Capacity and Reserves: Proven oil reserves (bn barrels), production, consumption, refinery capacity and throughputs (`000b/d); Proven gas reserves (tcm), production and consumption (bcm)

Imports and Exports: Oil exports/imports (`000b/d), value of oil exports/imports (US$mn - BMI base case); Value of oil exports at constant US$50/bbl and constant US$100/bbl (US$mn); Gas exports/imports (bcm), Value of gas exports/imports (US$mn); Value of gas exports/imports at constant US$50/bbl and US$100/bbl (US$mn); Value of petroleum exports/imports (US$mn); Value of petroleum exports/imports at constant US$50/bbl and US$100/bbl (US$mn)

BMI Macroeconomic Forecasts

BMI forecasts to end-2018 for all headline macroeconomic indicators, including real GDP growth, inflation, fiscal balance, trade balance, current account and external debt.

Competitive Landscape

Comparative company analyses by US$ sales, % share of total sales, number of employees, year established, ownership structure, oil production ('000b/d), gas production (bcm), downstream capacity ('000b/d) and % market share.

Company Profiles

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc