Business Monitor International


Egypt Oil & Gas Report

Published 15 April 2014

  • 130 pages
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$1,295.00
Egypt Oil & Gas Report

BMI View: Political risk in Egypt has peaked, and we expect a slight moderation over the coming months. The interim government has brought a semblance of stability to Egypt's political scene and a degree of policy continuity that has not been present in Egypt for much of 2013. Nevertheless, w e believe that operational risk and lack of policy certainty will affect the country's oil and gas output for the coming mo nths and possibly years. That said , we stress that the country's below- ground potential remains extensive, as exemplified by a series of recent discoveries in onshore and offshore concessions. This leads us to believe that Egypt still holds large upside potential, but this will only be monetised over the long term as current woes are alleviated.

We highlight the following trends and developments in Egypt's oil and gas sector:

  • A series of recent discoveries by Beach Energy and Apache in their Western Desert concessions and BP Egypt in the deepwater East Nile Delta highlight that below-ground potential remains promising. A number of new exploration contracts could lead to significant revisions to reserves data in the near future.

  • We see serious downside risk to our production forecasts for 2014, as companies are likely to reduce their exposure to operational risks. Both BG and BP have already announced reductions in their activities. Apache also divested 33% stake in its Egyptian business to Sinopec for US$3.1bn, reducing its exposure to the country, which - before the divestment - accounted for 20% of total production.

  • In addition, U$6bn in unpaid debts to companies by the Egyptian Natural Gas Holding Company and Egyptian General Petroleum Corporation (EGPC) highlight the financial strains of the state-owned energy companies. While a repayment schedule has been agreed to, it highlights the additional operational and financial risk operating in the country.

  • While political risk is pertinent and certainly the main concern in the...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Industry Forecast
10
Oil And Gas Reserves
10
Table: Egypt Proven Oil And Gas Reserves And Total Petroleum Data, 2011-2016
10
Table: Egypt Proven Oil And Gas Reserves And Total Petroleum Data, 2017-2022
12
Oil Supply And Demand
14
Table: Egypt Oil Production And Net Exports, 2011-2016
14
Table: Egypt Oil Production And Net Exports, 2017-2022
16
Gas Supply And Demand
17
Table: Egypt Gas Production, Consumption And Net Exports, 2011-2016
17
Table: Egypt Gas Production, Consumption And Net Exports, 2017-2022
19
LNG & Gas Trade
22
Table: Egypt LNG Export Contracts
23
Refining And Oil Products Trade
25
Table: Egypt Refining - Production And Consumption, 2011-2016
25
Table: Egypt Refining - Production And Consumption, 2017-2022
25
Key Risks To BMI's Forecast Scenario
28
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
29
Africa - Risk/Reward Ratings
29
Table: BMI's Africa Oil And Gas Risk/Reward Ratings
30
Riches Lie Underground, While Above-Ground Risks Continue To Loom
30
Table: BMI's Africa Upstream Risk/Reward Ratings
31
Downstream Woes Still Weigh Down On Reward Potential
35
Table: BMI's Africa Downstream Risk/Reward Ratings
35
Egypt - Risk/Reward Ratings
38
Market Overview
40
Egypt Energy Market Overview
40
Licensing And Regulation
40
Government Policy
40
Licensing Rounds
41
International Energy Relations
41
Oil And Gas Infrastructure
43
Oil Refineries
43
Table: Refineries In Egypt
43
Service Stations
46
Oil Storage Facilities
46
Oil Terminals/Ports
46
Oil Pipelines
46
LNG Terminals
47
Table: LNG Terminals In Egypt
47
Gas Pipelines
49
Competitive Landscape
51
Table: Key Players - Egyptian Energy Sector
52
Table: Key Upstream Players
53
Table: Key Downstream Players
53
Company Profile
54
Egyptian General Petroleum Corporation
54
BP Egypt
58
Eni Egypt
61
Shell Egypt
65
BG Egypt
68
Apache Energy
73
Dana Gas
77
Edison
82
RWE Dea
85
Other Summaries
89
Regional Overview
96
Africa Overview
96
Subsalt Expectations
97
East African Gas Boom
99
Revealing Untapped Potential
101
Fuelling Development: The Downstream Race
102
Post-Revolutionary Blues
104
Global Industry Overview
106
Global Energy Market Overview
106
Appendix
114
Africa - Regional Appendix
114
Table: Oil Consumption - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 ('000b/d)
114
Table: Oil Consumption - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2022 ('000b/d)
115
Table: Oil Production - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 ('000b/d)
115
Table: Oil Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2022 ('000b/d)
116
Table: Refining Capacity - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 ('000b/d)
117
Table: Refining Capacity - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2022 ('000b/d)
117
Table: Gas Consumption - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 (bcm)
118
Table: Gas Consumption - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2022 (bcm)
119
Table: Gas Production - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 (bcm)
119
Table: Gas Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2022 (bcm)
120
Table: LNG Net Exports - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 (bcm)
121
Table: LNG Net Exports - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2022 (bcm)
121
Glossary
122
Table: Glossary Of Terms
122
Methodology
124
Industry Forecast Methodology
124
Source
126
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
126
Table: Bmi's Oil & Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Ratings
128
Table: Weighting
130

The Egypt Oil & Gas Report has been researched at source and features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s independent forecasts for Egypt including major indicators for oil, gas and LNG, covering all major indicators including reserves, production, consumption, refining capacity, prices, export volumes and values. The report includes full analysis of industry trends and prospects, national and multinational companies and changes in the regulatory environment.

BMI's Egypt Oil & Gas Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Egyptian oil and gas industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent oil and gas industry forecasts for Egypt to test consensus views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Egyptian oil and gas market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Egyptian oil and gas sector through reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Egypt.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and Competitive Landscape Tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI's key forecasts and industry analysis, covering oil and gas reserves, supply, demand and refining, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.

Regional Overview

Regional perspective on size and value of industry sector; comparative rankings by production, refining, imports and exports of oil, gas and LNG.

Business Environment Ratings

BMI's Oil and Gas Business Environment Ratings provide a country-comparative Risk-Reward Ratings index aimed at investors (independents, NOCs, IOCs and oil services companies) in the upstream and downstream markets.

The ratings methodology makes sophisticated use of more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points and is part of BMI's integrated Country Risk-Industry Ratings products.

Oil Market Outlook and Oil Products Outlook

Based on our country coverage of over 99% of global oil and gas production and consumption, BMI provides demand, supply and price forecasts to end-2018 for oil, gas and oil products

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:

Pricing: Oil price (US$/bbl, WTI, Brent, OPEC basket, Urals); Oil products prices (unleaded gasoline, gasoil/diesel, jet/kerosene - US$/bbl) at global hubs

Production, Consumption, Capacity and Reserves: Proven oil reserves (bn barrels), production, consumption, refinery capacity and throughputs (`000b/d); Proven gas reserves (tcm), production and consumption (bcm)

Imports and Exports: Oil exports/imports (`000b/d), value of oil exports/imports (US$mn - BMI base case); Value of oil exports at constant US$50/bbl and constant US$100/bbl (US$mn); Gas exports/imports (bcm), Value of gas exports/imports (US$mn); Value of gas exports/imports at constant US$50/bbl and US$100/bbl (US$mn); Value of petroleum exports/imports (US$mn); Value of petroleum exports/imports at constant US$50/bbl and US$100/bbl (US$mn)

BMI Macroeconomic Forecasts

BMI forecasts to end-2018 for all headline macroeconomic indicators, including real GDP growth, inflation, fiscal balance, trade balance, current account and external debt.

Competitive Landscape

Comparative company analyses by US$ sales, % share of total sales, number of employees, year established, ownership structure, oil production ('000b/d), gas production (bcm), downstream capacity ('000b/d) and % market share.

Company Profiles

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc