Business Monitor International


Egypt Freight Transport Report

Published 11 February 2014

  • 88 pages
  • Instant access to your report online and PDF format through your account library
  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
 
$1,295.00
Egypt Freight Transport Report

Political uncertainty will continue to affect the Egyptian economy in 2014 as the country continues upon its rocky transitional period towards democracy. At the time of writing, in January 2014, the country continues to see break outs of violence, as it prepares for the next elections, likely to take place in March. The uncertainty will continue to hamper trade and economic growth over the year.

The presence of the Suez Canal in Egyptian territory provides an important source of income in fees and associated businesses to the Egyptian economy; those ports and transit routes expected to see strongest growth in 2014 are those located near to the canal, such as East Port Said and roads leading to it. However, should instability bring danger to these ports then these two could see volumes affected. On the upside, continued delays to the opening of the widened Panama Canal is boosting throughput on the Egyptian waterway.

Headline Industry Data

  • Air freight handled at Cairo International Airport is set to grow by 3.7% year-on-year (y-o-y) in 2014 to reach 320,980 tonnes. Over the medium term to 2018, growth will average 3.5% per annum.

  • Rail cargo will enjoy expansion of 1.9% in 2014, with growth projected to average 1.7% over the medium term.

  • Total tonnage throughput at East Port Said is forecast to grow by 3.5% to 26.51mn tonnes in 2014, and to average 5.4% per annum to 2018.

  • Total trade is forecast to see a growth in real terms of 4.0% in 2014,picking up in 2015 to 8.2%.

Key Industry Trends

Adabiya Port Project Highlights Suez Upgrade Drive: Development at the port of Adabiya demonstrates the Egyptian government's commitment to modernising its maritime sector. The Suez Canal's role in the global shipping industry is pivotal, and investment in the port will ensure it remains competitive.

Suez Canal Attracts New Customers: Continued delays to the expansion of the Panama Canal, through the widening of its locks, has led to more ships choosing to use the Suez...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Freight Transport
9
Political
11
Economic
12
Business Environment
14
Industry Forecast
15
Air Freight
15
Table: Air Freight - Cairo International Airport And Egypt, 2011-2018
17
Rail Freight
17
Table: Rail Freight, 2011-2018
18
Maritime Freight
18
Table: Maritime Freight, 2011-2018
19
Trade
21
Table: Trade Overview, 2011-2018
21
Table: Key Trade Indicators, 2011-2018 (US$mn and % change y-o-y)
22
Table: Egypt's Main Import Partners (US$mn)
23
Table: Egypt's Main Export Partners (US$mn)
23
Market Overview
25
Industry Trends And Developments
30
Inland Waterway
30
Maritime
30
Logisitics
32
Air
32
Company Profile
33
EgyptAir Cargo
33
Egypt Transport & Commercial Services SAE (Egytrans)
36
Political Outlook
39
Political Outlook I
39
Elections Are Key Concern
40
Long-Term Political Outlook
42
Oil Price Outlook
49
Global Oil Products Price Outlook
49
Table: 2013 Oil Product Price Forecast Record
49
Methodology
51
Crude Price Forecasts
52
Table: BMI's Oil Price Forecasts, Average Price (US$/bbl)
52
Oil Product Price Forecasts
52
Table: BMI's Refined Products Forecast, US$/bbl
53
Narrower US Market Crude-Product Spreads
54
Weak Demand Persists
55
Supply: Global Capacity Supports Demand
56
Quarterly Prices
60
Table: BMI Refined Oil Products Quarterly Forecast, US$/bbl
60
Naphtha: Long-Term Growth Faces Headwinds From Gas
61
Gasoline And Gasoil/Diesel: Gasoline Weakness To Continue
63
Jet Fuel: Downward Movement Capped By Recovery
69
Table: Total Air Freight And Passenger Volumes
71
Bunker Fuels: Sulphur Control To Hit Rotterdam Hardest
71
Risks To Outlook
73
Macroeconomic Forecasts
74
Economic Analysis
74
Positive Long-Term Outlook Remains
80
Table: Egypt - Economic Activity
81
Demographic Forecast
82
Demographic Outlook
82
Table: Egypt's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
83
Table: Egypt's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
84
Table: Egypt's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
85
Table: Egypt's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
85
Methodology
86
Industry Forecast Methodology
86
Sector-Specific Methodology
87
Sources
88

The Egypt Freight Transport Report has been researched at source, and features latest-available data covering commercial transport and logistics by road, rail, air and water; industry forecasts, company rankings covering leading national and multinational operators; and analysis of latest industry trends, opportunities, projects and regulatory changes.

Business Monitor International (BMI)'s Egypt Freight Transport Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Egyptian freight transport and logistics industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent freight transport industry forecasts on Egypt to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the strategic freight transport market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Egyptian freight transport sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Egypt.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs, and latest activity).

Coverage

Executive Summary

Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis covering freight transport and logistics, regulatory changes, major investments and projects and significant national and multinational company developments.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the freight sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

Industry Trends And Developments

Analysis of latest projects across the freight transport sector (road, rail, air, sea and logistics) including market overview which provides an outline of the key elements driving development.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series and forecasts to end-2017 for all key industry and macroeconomic indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:

Transport Sector: Sector Value (US$bn); sector real growth (%); employment (`000); total freight carried by road, rail, inland waterways, maritime, air and pipeline (mn tonnes-km/mn tonnes)

Trade: Exports and imports (US$mn) by category of goods (manufactured goods, food, chemicals etc.); top-5 import and export trade partners (US$mn); imports/exports to each global region (US$mn)

Port Data: Throughput (`000 tonnes) and container throughput (TEU) for all major ports in the state

Oil Products Prices: Price forecasts for gasoline and aviation fuel (US$/bbl) at all major global energy trading hubs

Economic Indicators: Nominal GDP (US$bn); real GDP growth (%); GDP per capita (US$); industrial production (%); unemployment (%)

Market Overview

Details of the freight infrastructure in each state by segment (road, rail, air, water and pipelines). Full analysis of the competitive landscape within each segment.

Political Outlook

The freight reports contain a chapter detailing the political outlook of a given region, examining the domestic politics, long-term outlook and foreign policy, and assessing the impact this could have on freight and transport businesses.

Company Profiles

Examines the short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT (Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats) analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc