Business Monitor International


Egypt Freight Transport Report

Published 21 August 2014

  • 88 pages
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  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
 
$1,295.00
Egypt Freight Transport Report

Political uncertainty will continue to affect the Egyptian economy in 2014 as the country continues through its rocky transitional period towards democracy. However, the election of former Field Marshall Sisi to the presidency following elections at the end of May 2014 will serve to reduce political risk and will introduce a measure of stability not seen since the ouster of President Mubarak in 2011. Sisi's election will provide a veneer of political legitimacy, thereby releasing US aid flows, and should help the economy get back on track. A recovering economy will be felt in the country's ports and airports and on its freight services, as consumer demand and investment into infrastructure picks up, thereby boosting container and dry and liquid bulk freight services.

Increased security would help in reviving tourism, and other industries, and serve to boost container volumes through Egypt's ports. Equally, should investment start flowing into the country once more then dry bulk volumes for infrastructure projects could also see an uptick.

The presence of the Suez Canal in Egyptian territory provides an important source of income in fees and associated businesses to the Egyptian economy; those ports expected to see strongest growth in 2014 are those located near the canal, such as East Port Said, which will also benefit from the improved global macroeconomic picture.

Headline Industry Data

  • Air freight handled at Cairo International Airport is set to grow by 3.7% year-on-year (y-o-y) in 2014 to reach 371,580 tonnes. Over the medium term to 2018, growth will average 4.4% per annum.

  • Rail cargo will enjoy expansion of 1.9% in 2014, with growth projected to average 2.3% over the medium term.

  • Total tonnage throughput at East Port Said is forecast to grow by 2.1% to 23.83mn tonnes in 2014, and to average 4.1% per annum to 2018.

  • Total trade is forecast to see a growth in real terms of 2.4% in 2014, picking up in 2015 to 4.4%.

Key Industry Trends

Port...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Freight Transport
9
Political
11
Economic
12
Business Environment
14
Industry Forecast
15
Air Freight
15
Table: Air Freight - Cairo International Airport And Egypt, 2011-2018
17
Rail Freight
17
Table: Rail Freight (Egypt 2011-2018)
18
Maritime Freight
18
Table: Maritime Freight (Egypt 2011-2018)
19
Trade
20
Table: Trade Overview (Egypt 2011-2018)
20
Table: Key Trade Indicators (Egypt 2011-2018)
21
Table: Egypt's Main Import Partners (USDmn)
22
Table: Egypt's Main Export Partners (USDmn)
23
Market Overview
24
Industry Trends And Developments
29
Inland Waterway
29
Maritime
29
Logisitics
31
Air
31
Company Profile
32
EgyptAir Cargo
32
Egypt Transport & Commercial Services SAE (Egytrans)
35
Political Outlook
38
Domestic Politics
38
Constitution Marks Break From The Past
39
Sisi To Run For & Win Presidency
40
Presidential Elections To Be Held First
41
Table: Egypt - Political Outlook
43
Long-term Political Outlook
44
Oil Price Outlook
51
Bunker fuel
51
Table: BMI Crude Oil & Bunker Fuel Price Forecast (USD/bbl)
51
The Storm Clears For Shipping
52
(Slightly) Better Times For Bunker Prices
54
Long-Term Threats Linger
55
Pressing Rotterdam & New York Harder
56
Risks To Outlook
57
Jet Fuel
58
Table: BMI Crude Oil & Jet Fuel Price Forecast, USD/bbl
58
Better Outlook Tames Price Fall
58
Table: Total Air Freight And Passenger Volume Growth
60
Risks To Outlook
63
Diesel
64
Table: BMI Crude Oil And Diesel Price Forecast (USD/bbl)
64
New York's One-Off Heat Up
64
NY: Short-Term Diesel Price Support Expected
67
Rotterdam: Green Policies Drive Diesel Forward
71
Singapore: Diesel Support With Power Risks
73
Risks To Outlook
77
Macroeconomic Forecasts
78
Economic Analysis
78
Table: Egypt - Gdp By Expenditure
83
Demographic Forecast
84
Table: Egypt's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
85
Table: Egypt's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
86
Table: Egypt's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
87
Table: Egypt's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
87
Methodology
88
Industry Forecast Methodology
88
Sector-Specific Methodology
89
Sources
90

The Egypt Freight Transport Report has been researched at source, and features latest-available data covering commercial transport and logistics by road, rail, air and water; industry forecasts, company rankings covering leading national and multinational operators; and analysis of latest industry trends, opportunities, projects and regulatory changes.

Business Monitor International (BMI)'s Egypt Freight Transport Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Egyptian freight transport and logistics industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent freight transport industry forecasts on Egypt to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the strategic freight transport market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Egyptian freight transport sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Egypt.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs, and latest activity).

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis covering freight transport and logistics, regulatory changes, major investments and projects and significant national and multinational company developments.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the freight sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

Industry Trends And Developments

Analysis of latest projects across the freight transport sector (road, rail, air, sea and logistics) including market overview which provides an outline of the key elements driving development.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry and macroeconomic indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:

Transport Sector: Sector Value (US$bn); sector real growth (%); employment (`000); total freight carried by road, rail, inland waterways, maritime, air and pipeline (mn tonnes-km/mn tonnes)

Trade: Exports and imports (US$mn) by category of goods (manufactured goods, food, chemicals etc.); top-5 import and export trade partners (US$mn); imports/exports to each global region (US$mn)

Port Data: Throughput (`000 tonnes) and container throughput (TEU) for all major ports in the state

Oil Products Prices: Price forecasts for gasoline and aviation fuel (US$/bbl) at all major global energy trading hubs

Economic Indicators: Nominal GDP (US$bn); real GDP growth (%); GDP per capita (US$); industrial production (%); unemployment (%)

Market Overview

Details of the freight infrastructure in each state by segment (road, rail, air, water and pipelines). Full analysis of the competitive landscape within each segment.

Political Outlook

The freight reports contain a chapter detailing the political outlook of a given region, examining the domestic politics, long-term outlook and foreign policy, and assessing the impact this could have on freight and transport businesses.

Company Profiles

Examines the short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT (Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats) analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc