Business Monitor International


Egypt Agribusiness Report

Published 19 February 2014

  • 132 pages
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  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
 
$1,295.00
Egypt Agribusiness Report

BMI View: Egypt remains the world's largest wheat importer, and moderating global prices will help to decrease pressure on the country's fiscal situation and on local inflation. In line with this , Egypt ramped up wheat imports at the end of 2013 as prices moderated sharply and as Russia, which traditionally supplies the country at very competitive prices, returned to export markets. We continue to se e the lifting of the three-year ban on rice exports as providing a boost to the local industr y. The sugar industry is benefi ting from a tight local market and higher domestic prices, while the cotton industry is likely to be helped by the recent recovery in prices. The livestock and dairy industries are recover ing from the recent foot-and-mouth disease outbreak , especially in a context of lower grain prices.

Mostly Grains
Egypt - BMI Market Value By Commodity (% of total)

Key Forecasts

  • Wheat production growth to 2017/18: 11.0% to 9.4mn tonnes. This will largely be the result of government efforts to increase area planted and yields in the coming years.

  • Sugar consumption growth to 2018: 11.0% to 3.2mn tonnes. This will be driven by growth in the local confectionery and soft drinks industries on the back of population and income growth.

  • Beef production growth to 2017/18: 33.4% to 380,100 tonnes. The recovery of herds - linked to imports of live cattle, systematic vaccination of cattle and lower feed prices - will help production recover over the medium term.

  • Real GDP growth: 2.7% year-on-year (y-o-y) in 2014 (up from 1.9% y-o-y in 2013).

  • Consumer inflation: average 10.4% y-o-y in 2014 (up from 9.5% y-o-y in 2013).

  • BMI universe agribusiness market value: 5.1% y-o-y decrease to US$23.43bn in 2013/14; forecast to grow on average 5.0% annually between 2012/13 and 2017/18.

Industry Outlook

We have revised our estimate for 2013/14 wheat production in Egypt in line with local industry and official sources. We now forecast wheat...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
10
Agribusiness
10
Business Environment
12
Industry Forecast
13
Grains Outlook
13
Table: Egypt Wheat Production & Consumption, 2013-2018
14
Table: Egypt Corn Production & Consumption, 2013-2018
14
Table: Egypt Wheat Production & Consumption, 2008-2013
18
Table: Egypt Corn Production & Consumption, 2008-2013
18
Rice Outlook
19
Table: Egypt Rice Production & Consumption, 2013-2018
19
Table: Egypt Rice Production & Consumption, 2008-2013
21
Livestock Outlook
22
Table: Egypt Poultry Production & Consumption, 2013-2018
23
Table: Egypt Beef & Veal Production & Consumption, 2013-2018
23
Table: Egypt Poultry Production & Consumption, 2008-2013
27
Table: Egypt Beef & Veal Production & Consumption, 2008-2013
27
Dairy Outlook
27
Table: Egypt Milk Production & Consumption, 2013-2018
29
Table: Egypt Cheese Production & Consumption, 2013-2018
29
Table: Egypt Butter Production & Consumption, 2013-2018
29
Table: Egypt Milk Production & Consumption, 2008-2013
31
Table: Egypt Cheese Production & Consumption, 2008-2013
32
Table: Egypt Butter Production & Consumption, 2008-2013
32
Sugar Outlook
33
Table: Egypt Sugar Production & Consumption, 2013-2018
33
Table: Egypt Sugar Production & Consumption, 2008-2013
39
Commodities Price Analysis
40
Monthly Softs Update
40
Table: Select Commodities - Performance & BMI Forecasts
51
Table: BMI Commodities Strategy
52
Monthly Grains Update
53
Table: Select Commodities - Performance & BMI Forecasts
61
Table: BMI Commodities Strategy
62
Upstream Analysis
63
Africa Fertiliser Outlook
63
Africa Machinery Outlook
68
Africa GM Outlook
75
Downstream Analysis
80
Food
80
Food Consumption
80
Table: Food Consumption Indicators - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017
81
Confectionery
82
Table: Confectionery Value/Volume Sales - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017
82
Canned Food
86
Dairy
86
Table: Dairy - Production, Consumption & Trade, Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017
87
Pasta
90
Table: Pasta Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017
90
Other Processed Food
91
Table: Fish Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017
92
Table: Frozen Fruit & Vegetables Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017
94
Oils & Fats
95
Table: Oils & Fats Volume Sales, Production & Trade -- Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017
95
Drink
101
Alcoholic Drinks
101
Table: Alcoholic Drinks Value/Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017
102
Soft Drinks
106
Table: Soft Drinks Value/Volume Sales - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017
107
Hot Drinks
113
Table: Hot Drinks Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017
114
Mass Grocery Retail
117
Table: Table: Grocery Retail Sales By Format, %
118
Table: Mass Grocery Retail Sales - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017
118
Regional Overview
119
Competitive Landscape
125
Table: Main Agribusiness Players
125
Demographic Forecast
126
Table: Egypt's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
127
Table: Egypt's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
128
Table: Egypt's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
129
Table: Egypt's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
129
Methodology
130
Industry Forecast Methodology
130
Sector-Specific Methodology
131

The Egypt Agribusiness Report features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s market assessment and independent forecasts for production, consumption and trade across core agricultural commodities.

BMI's Egypt Agribusiness Report includes independent commodity price forecasting and analysis for key agricultural outputs, an overview of the agribusiness competitive landscape and a discussion of the downstream context of agricultural production in relation to country food consumption forecasts and composite food and beverage trade forecasts.

Key Benefits

  • Use BMI's independent industry forecasts to test other views - a key input for successful planning in dynamic agribusiness markets.
  • Apply BMI's medium-term commodity price analysis to assist with budgetary planning and the identification of investment opportunities and potential risks.
  • Assess the activities and market position of your competitors, partners and clients.

Coverage

Executive Summary

An analytical summary of BMI's latest key industry forecasts and views, highlighting recent changes and key risks to the industry outlook for agribusiness in Egypt.

Industry SWOT Analysis

At-a-glance perspectives on the Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats facing the agricultural industry.

BMI Supply & Demand Forecasts

Divided into sections based on various diverse sectors in the agriculture market, the chapter provides insight into each market's agricultural industry, centred on sector forecasts to end-2017 for the consumption, production and trade of key agricultural commodities.

Consumption forecasts are accompanied by a discussion of the main drivers of consumption growth: macroeconomic factors, food processing trends, price movements and, increasingly, demand from the non-food sector.

Production forecasts examine the trends influencing BMI's production outlook: global demand, price increases, public and private sector investment and agricultural efficiency improvements.

Trade forecasts are accompanied by a discussion of the factors influencing a country's trade in agricultural goods, including domestic demand, global prices and government trade policies.

BMI's forecasts are accompanied by a Risks- to-Outlook assessment, which examines potential factors that could affect our existing forecast picture and the likelihood of their occurrence.

BMI's Commodity Price Analysis

Fundamental and technical analysis of the short- and medium-term price outlook for key agricultural commodities, based on globally-recognised benchmarks.

Downstream Analysis

Analysis of headline food and drink forecasts, including total food consumption, per capita food consumption and total sector trade, which provide important downstream intelligence for primary agricultural producers.

Featured Analysis

Includes relevant articles from BMI's daily analysis service. These can include long-term projections on agricultural imports and exports, our perceptions of the impacts of economic slowdown on key companies and subsectors within the Agribusiness industry in a given country, our analysis of fertilizer production as well as other relevant analysis of recent news and events on Store and Landing Pages.

Methodology & Sourcing

The Egypt Agribusiness Report is based on an extensive network of multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc