Business Monitor International


Egypt Agribusiness Report

Published 01 September 2014

  • 132 pages
 
$1,295.00
Egypt Agribusiness Report

BMI View: Egypt remains the world's largest wheat importer, meaning that the recent sell-off in grain prices will benefit the country, though low prices will be limited by Egypt's weak pound and low foreign reserves. The country is in the process of reforming its food subsidy programme, in an effort to make the process more efficient. The sugar industry is benefiting from a tight local ma rket and higher domestic prices, and we believe the livestock and dairy industries will continue to recove r strongly from the recent foot-and-mouth disease outbreak, especially in a context of lower grain prices.

Agribusiness Market Value
BMI Market Value By Commodity (2010-2018)

Key Forecasts

  • Wheat production growth to 2017/18: 9.4% to 9.3mn tonnes. This will largely be the result of government efforts to increase area planted and yields in the coming years.

  • Sugar consumption growth to 2018: 5.6% to 3.0mn tonnes. This will be driven by growth in the local confectionery and soft drinks industries on the back of population and income growth.

  • Beef & veal production growth to 2017/18: 33.4% to 380,100 tonnes. The recovery of herds - linked to imports of live cattle, systematic vaccination of cattle and lower feed prices - will help production recover over the medium term.

  • Real GDP growth: 2.2% year-on-year (y-o-y) in 2014 (flat at 2.2% y-o-y in 2013).

  • Consumer inflation: average 10.5% y-o-y in 2014 (up from 9.4% y-o-y in 2013).

  • BMI universe agribusiness market value: 5.9% y-o-y decrease to USD27.5bn in 2013/14; forecast to increase on average 3.4% annually between 2014/15 and 2017/18.

Industry Outlook

With the wheat and corn harvests completed in Egypt, we maintain our estimates for wheat output to reach 8.7mn tonnes in 2013/14 and corn output to come in at 5.8mn tonnes. Despite ongoing tensions in the Black Sea, Egypt will import almost the entirety of its wheat requirements from the Black Sea region as trade has as yet been unaffected. For...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
10
Agribusiness
10
Business Environment
12
Industry Forecast
13
Grains Outlook
13
Table: Egypt Wheat Production & Consumption, 2013-2018
14
Table: Egypt Corn Production & Consumption, 2013-2018
14
Table: Egypt Wheat Production & Consumption, 2008-2013
17
Table: Egypt Corn Production & Consumption, 2008-2013
18
Rice Outlook
19
Table: Egypt Rice Production & Consumption, 2013-2018
19
Table: Egypt Rice Production & Consumption, 2008-2013
21
Livestock Outlook
21
Table: Egypt Poultry Production & Consumption, 2013-2018
22
Table: Egypt Beef & Veal Production & Consumption, 2013-2018
23
Table: Egypt Poultry Production & Consumption, 2008-2013
26
Table: Egypt Beef & Veal Production & Consumption, 2008-2013
26
Dairy Outlook
26
Table: Egypt Milk Production & Consumption, 2013-2018
28
Table: Egypt Cheese Production & Consumption, 2013-2018
28
Table: Egypt Butter Production & Consumption, 2013-2018
28
Table: Egypt Milk Production & Consumption, 2008-2013
31
Table: Egypt Cheese Production & Consumption, 2008-2013
31
Table: Egypt Butter Production & Consumption, 2008-2013
31
Sugar Outlook
32
Table: Egypt Sugar Production & Consumption, 2013-2018
33
Table: Egypt Sugar Production & Consumption, 2008-2013
37
Commodities Price Analysis
39
Monthly Grains Update
39
Table: Select Commodities - Performance & Forecasts
47
Monthly Softs Update
48
Table: Select Commodities - Performance & BMI Forecasts
58
Upstream Analysis
59
Africa Machinery Outlook
59
Africa GM Outlook
66
Africa Fertiliser Outlook
71
Downstream Analysis
76
Food
76
Food Consumption
76
Table: Food Consumption Indicators - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018
77
Confectionery
78
Table: Confectionery Value/Volume Sales - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018
79
Dairy
80
Table: Dairy - Production, Consumption & Trade, Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018
81
Pasta
84
Table: Pasta Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018
84
Other Processed Food
85
Table: Fish Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018
86
Table: Frozen Fruit & Vegetables Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018
89
Oils & Fats
90
Table: Oils & Fats Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018
90
Drink
95
Alcoholic Drinks
95
Table: Alcoholic Drinks Value/Volume Sales - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018
96
Soft Drinks
98
Table: Soft Drinks Value/Volume Sales - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018
99
Hot Drinks
101
Table: Hot Drinks Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018
103
Mass Grocery Retail
104
Table: Table: Grocery Retail Sales By Format, %
105
Table: Mass Grocery Retail Sales - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018
105
Regional Overview
106
Competitive Landscape
113
Table: Main Agribusiness Players
113
Demographic Forecast
114
Table: Egypt's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
115
Table: Egypt's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
116
Table: Egypt's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
117
Table: Egypt's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
117
Methodology
118
Industry Forecast Methodology
118
Sector-Specific Methodology
119

The Egypt Agribusiness Report features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s market assessment and independent forecasts for production, consumption and trade across core agricultural commodities.

BMI's Egypt Agribusiness Report includes independent commodity price forecasting and analysis for key agricultural outputs, an overview of the agribusiness competitive landscape and a discussion of the downstream context of agricultural production in relation to country food consumption forecasts and composite food and beverage trade forecasts.

Key Benefits

  • Use BMI's independent industry forecasts to test other views - a key input for successful planning in dynamic agribusiness markets.
  • Apply BMI's medium-term commodity price analysis to assist with budgetary planning and the identification of investment opportunities and potential risks.
  • Assess the activities and market position of your competitors, partners and clients.

Coverage

Executive Summary

An analytical summary of BMI's latest key industry forecasts and views, highlighting recent changes and key risks to the industry outlook for agribusiness in Egypt.

Industry SWOT Analysis

At-a-glance perspectives on the Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats facing the agricultural industry.

BMI Supply & Demand Forecasts

Divided into sections based on various diverse sectors in the agriculture market, the chapter provides insight into each market's agricultural industry, centred on sector forecasts to end-2017 for the consumption, production and trade of key agricultural commodities.

Consumption forecasts are accompanied by a discussion of the main drivers of consumption growth: macroeconomic factors, food processing trends, price movements and, increasingly, demand from the non-food sector.

Production forecasts examine the trends influencing BMI's production outlook: global demand, price increases, public and private sector investment and agricultural efficiency improvements.

Trade forecasts are accompanied by a discussion of the factors influencing a country's trade in agricultural goods, including domestic demand, global prices and government trade policies.

BMI's forecasts are accompanied by a Risks- to-Outlook assessment, which examines potential factors that could affect our existing forecast picture and the likelihood of their occurrence.

BMI's Commodity Price Analysis

Fundamental and technical analysis of the short- and medium-term price outlook for key agricultural commodities, based on globally-recognised benchmarks.

Downstream Analysis

Analysis of headline food and drink forecasts, including total food consumption, per capita food consumption and total sector trade, which provide important downstream intelligence for primary agricultural producers.

Featured Analysis

Includes relevant articles from BMI's daily analysis service. These can include long-term projections on agricultural imports and exports, our perceptions of the impacts of economic slowdown on key companies and subsectors within the Agribusiness industry in a given country, our analysis of fertilizer production as well as other relevant analysis of recent news and events on Store and Landing Pages.

Methodology & Sourcing

The Egypt Agribusiness Report is based on an extensive network of multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.

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