Business Monitor International


Ecuador Oil & Gas Report

Published 19 May 2014

  • 95 pages
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  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
 
$1,295.00
Ecuador Oil & Gas Report

BMI View : Ecuador's upstream sector will experience very modest growth in the remainder of the decade, but its downstream sector could see transformation from being a net importer of refined products to a significant exporter of refined products by 2017.

Headline Forecasts (Ecuador 2012-2018)
  2012 2013e 2014f 2015f 2016f 2017f 2018f
Crude, NGPL & other liquids prod, 000b/d 504.7 524.8 525.9 531.2 533.8 536.5 539.2
Dry natural gas production, bcm 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7
Dry natural gas consumption, bcm 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3
Refined products production & ethanol, 000b/d 168.4 169.2 170.0 170.9 171.8 343.5 446.6
Refined products consumption & ethanol, 000b/d 212.7 217.0 225.6 234.2 242.8 251.9 260.0
e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: EIA, BMI

Click here to explore data

The key trends and developments in Ecuador's oil and gas sector are:

  • Oil production will grow through 2018, but gains will be incremental, offset by natural depreciation rates at the country's mature fields. Moreover, a poor above ground environment, including unattractive contract terms and an uncertain regulatory environment, acts as a significant deterrent to greater foreign investment.

  • Recognising that investment is passing them by, Ecuador is trying to improve its image and its options by reaching out to China, which is by far the largest foreign investor in the country's petroleum sector, and Qatar which has been approached by Ecuador as another potential investor.

  • While at present we are holding on to our bearish forecast for long-term production, recent events suggest that the risks lie to the upside. Namely, the Ecuadorian government has authorised drilling in the country's Ishpingo Tambococha Tiputini (ITT) complex. Previously exploitation of the field had been prohibited as it sits in the Amazon rainforest....

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
8
Industry Forecast
10
Oil And Gas Reserves
10
Table: Ecuador Proven Oil & Gas Reserves And Total Petroleum Data, 2012-2017
10
Table: Ecuador Proven Oil & Gas Reserves And Total Petroleum Data, 2018-2023
11
Oil Supply And Demand
13
Table: Ecuador Oil Production And Net Exports, 2012-2017
13
Table: Ecuador Oil Production And Net Exports, 2018-2023
13
Gas Supply And Demand
19
Table: Ecuador Gas Production, Consumption And Net Exports, 2012-2017
19
Table: Ecuador Gas Production, Consumption And Net Exports, 2018-2023
20
Refining And Oil Products Trade
22
Table: Ecuador Refining - Production and Consumption, 2012-2017
22
Table: Ecuador Refining - Production And Consumption, 2018-2023
22
Revenues/Import Costs
25
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
26
Latin America - Risk/Reward Ratings
26
Table: Latin America Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Ratings
28
Upstream Risk/Reward Ratings: Reforms Prompting A Shake Up
29
Table: Latin America Upstream Risk/Reward Ratings
34
Downstream: Medium-Term Outlook Reinforces Current Dynamics
34
Table: Latin America Downstream Risk/Reward Ratings
36
Ecuador - Risk/Reward Ratings
37
Ecuador Upstream Ratings
37
Ecuador Downstream Ratings
37
Market Overview
38
Ecuador Energy Market Overview
38
Licensing And Regulation
38
Government Policy
38
Licensing Rounds
39
International Energy Relations
39
Table: Ecuador - Major Upstream Projects
40
Oil And Gas Infrastructure
41
Oil Refineries
41
Table: Refineries In Ecuador
41
Service Stations
43
Oil Pipelines
43
Oil Storage
44
Competitive Landscape
45
Table: Key Domestic And Foreign Companies
46
Table: Key Upstream Players
46
Table: Key Downstream Players
46
Company Profile
47
Petroecuador/Petromazonas
47
Eni Ecuador
52
Repsol
55
Other Summaries
58
Regional Overview
61
Latin America Overview
61
Global Industry Overview
71
Global Energy Market Overview
71
OPEC Reconsiders Modus Operandi
73
Production Outages Look Likely To Persist
74
Global Oil Demand Picks Up
75
Capex Growth Cycle Shifting Gears
77
Table: BMI Oil Price Forecasts, Annual Average, USD/bbl
77
Appendix
80
Latin America - Regional Appendix
80
Table: Oil Consumption - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 ('000b/d
80
Table: Oil Consumption - Long Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 ('000b/d)
81
Table: Oil Production - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 ('000b/d)
81
Table: Oil Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 ('000b/d)
82
Table: Refining Capacity - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 ('000b/d)
83
Table: Refining Capacity - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 ('000b/d)
83
Table: Gas Consumption - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 (bcm)
84
Table: Gas Consumption - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 (bcm)
84
Table: Gas Production - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 (bcm)
85
Table: Gas Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 (bcm)
86
Table: LNG Exports - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 (bcm)
86
Table: LNG Exports - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 (bcm)
87
Ecuador - Refined Products Breakdown, 10-year Forecasts
88
Table: Ecuador Refined Petroleum Products, Production Breakdown, 2012 -2017
88
Table: Ecuador Refined Petroleum Products, Production Breakdown, 2018 -2023
89
Table: Ecuador Refined Petroleum Products, Consumption Breakdown, 2012-2017
90
Table: Ecuador Refined Petroleum Products, Consumption Breakdown, 2018-2023
91
Table: Ecuador Refined Petroleum Products, Net Exports Breakdown, 2012-2017
92
Table: Ecuador Refined Petroleum Products, Net Exports Breakdown, 2018-2023
93
Glossary
95
Table: Glossary Of Terms
95
Methodology
97
Industry Forecast Methodology
97
Source
99
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
99
Table: Bmi's Oil & Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Ratings
101
Table: Weighting
102

The Ecuador Oil & Gas Report has been researched at source and features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s independent forecasts for Ecuador including major indicators for oil, gas and LNG, covering all major indicators including reserves, production, consumption, refining capacity, prices, export volumes and values. The report includes full analysis of industry trends and prospects, national and multinational companies and changes in the regulatory environment.

BMI's Ecuador Oil & Gas Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Ecuadorian oil and gas industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent oil and gas industry forecasts for Ecuador to test consensus views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Ecuadorian oil and gas market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Ecuadorian oil and gas sector through reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Ecuador.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and Competitive Landscape Tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI's key forecasts and industry analysis, covering oil and gas reserves, supply, demand and refining, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.

Regional Overview

Regional perspective on size and value of industry sector; comparative rankings by production, refining, imports and exports of oil, gas and LNG.

Business Environment Rankings

BMI's Oil and Gas Business Environment Rankings provide a country-comparative Risk-Reward Rankings index aimed at investors (independents, NOCs, IOCs and oil services companies) in the upstream and downstream markets.

The rankings methodology makes sophisticated use of more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points and is part of BMI's integrated Country Risk-Industry Rankings products.

Oil Market Outlook and Oil Products Outlook

Based on our country coverage of over 99% of global oil and gas production and consumption, BMI provides demand, supply and price forecasts to end-2018 for oil, gas and oil products

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:

Pricing: Oil price (US$/bbl, WTI, Brent, OPEC basket, Urals); Oil products prices (unleaded gasoline, gasoil/diesel, jet/kerosene - US$/bbl) at global hubs

Production, Consumption, Capacity and Reserves: Proven oil reserves (bn barrels), production, consumption, refinery capacity and throughputs (`000b/d); Proven gas reserves (tcm), production and consumption (bcm)

Imports and Exports: Oil exports/imports (`000b/d), value of oil exports/imports (US$mn - BMI base case); Value of oil exports at constant US$50/bbl and constant US$100/bbl (US$mn); Gas exports/imports (bcm), Value of gas exports/imports (US$mn); Value of gas exports/imports at constant US$50/bbl and US$100/bbl (US$mn); Value of petroleum exports/imports (US$mn); Value of petroleum exports/imports at constant US$50/bbl and US$100/bbl (US$mn)

BMI Macroeconomic Forecasts

BMI forecasts to end-2018 for all headline macroeconomic indicators, including real GDP growth, inflation, fiscal balance, trade balance, current account and external debt.

Competitive Landscape

Comparative company analyses by US$ sales, % share of total sales, number of employees, year established, ownership structure, oil production ('000b/d), gas production (bcm), downstream capacity ('000b/d) and % market share.

Company Profiles

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc