Business Monitor International


Ecuador Oil & Gas Report

Published 10 February 2014

  • 95 pages
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  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
 
$1,295.00
Ecuador Oil & Gas Report

BMI View : Ecuador, long a laggard for petroleum investment due to its above-ground risk profile, can be expected to make modest near - term gains in production. However, the incremental uptick in production is not matched by any commensurate growth in proven oil reserves. That is because exploration investment remains static, as the sector is beset by economic terms that are unattractive to many firms, a history of legal uncertainties and likely compounded by investors aversion to the risk of reputational criticism if they were to invest in blocks located within sensitive environmental areas of the country. Those blocks have failed to generate much interest and the deadline for bids has been pushed back several times. The country's government is trying to counter the corporate assumptions of risk with an aggressive courting of potential entrants to the country from Russia, and most notably China. Gas production is still predicted to continue to trend downward, albeit at a slower rate than oil.

Much of the story of Ecuador's petroleum sector, both upstream and midstream seems likely to be written with China in mind. Beijing has been the country's primary foreign lender since Ecuador's debt default in 2008 and the Chinese have been paid in crude. Moreover, a cooperation agreement between China and Ecuador has confirmed that the China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC) will take a 30% investment position in the Pacifico Refinery. The refinery, a partnership of state -owned Petro e cuador and Venezuela's Petroleos de Venezuela, and now CNPC, has been pushed back on several occasions but is now planned to enter production in 2016. We recognise this as an upside risk to our forecasts, but considering the rolling delays to the project we have not yet factored it in our forecast scenario.

The key trends and developments in Ecuador's oil and gas sector are:

  • Although there is upside from the potential awarding of new licences in an ongoing bidding...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Industry Forecast
10
Oil And Gas Reserves
10
Table: Ecuador Proven Oil & Gas Reserves And Total Petroleum Data, 2012-2017
10
Table: Ecuador Proven Oil & Gas Reserves And Total Petroleum Data, 2018-2023
11
Oil Supply And Demand
13
Table: Ecuador Oil Production And Net Exports, 2012-2017
13
Table: Ecuador Oil Production And Net Exports, 2018-2023
13
Gas Supply And Demand
18
Table: Ecuador Gas Production, Consumption And Net Exports, 2012-2017
18
Table: Ecuador Gas Production, Consumption And Net Exports, 2018-2023
19
Refining And Oil Products Trade
21
Table: Ecuador Refining - Production and Consumption, 2012-2017
21
Table: Ecuador Refining - Production And Consumption, 2018-2023
21
Revenues/Import Costs
23
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
25
Latin America - Risk/Reward Ratings
25
Table: Latin America Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Ratings
26
Reforms Prompting A Shake Up
27
Table: Latin America Upstream Risk/Reward Ratings
30
Downstream: Medium-Term Outlook Reinforces Current Dynamics
30
Table: Latin America Downstream Risk/Reward Ratings
31
Ecuador - Risk/Reward Ratings
32
Ecuador Upstream Ratings
32
Ecuador Downstream Ratings
33
Market Overview
34
Ecuador Energy Market Overview
34
Licensing And Regulation
34
Government Policy
34
Licensing Rounds
35
International Energy Relations
35
Table: Ecuador - Major Upstream Projects
36
Oil And Gas Infrastructure
37
Oil Refineries
37
Table: Refineries In Ecuador
37
Service Stations
39
Oil Pipelines
39
Oil Storage
40
Competitive Landscape
41
Table: Key Domestic And Foreign Companies
42
Table: Key Upstream Players
42
Table: Key Downstream Players
42
Company Profile
43
Petroecuador/Petromazonas
43
Eni Ecuador
48
Repsol
51
Other Summaries
54
Regional Overview
57
Latin America Overview
57
Global Industry Overview
65
Appendix
72
Ecuador - Refined Products Breakdown, 10-year Forecasts
72
Table: Ecuador Refined Petroleum Products, Production Breakdown, 2012 -2017
72
Table: Ecuador Refined Petroleum Products, Production Breakdown, 2018 -2023
73
Table: Ecuador Refined Petroleum Products, Consumption Breakdown, 2012-2017
74
Table: Ecuador Refined Petroleum Products, Consumption Breakdown, 2018-2023
75
Table: Ecuador Refined Petroleum Products, Net Exports Breakdown, 2012-2017
76
Table: Ecuador Refined Petroleum Products, Net Exports Breakdown, 2018-2023
77
Latin America - Regional Appendix
79
Table: Oil Consumption - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 ('000b/d
79
Table: Oil Consumption - Long Term Forecasts, 2015-2022 ('000b/d)
80
Table: Oil Production - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 ('000b/d)
80
Table: Oil Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2022 ('000b/d)
81
Table: Refining Capacity - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 ('000b/d)
82
Table: Refining Capacity - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2022 ('000b/d)
82
Table: Gas Consumption - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 (bcm)
83
Table: Gas Consumption - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2022 (bcm)
83
Table: Gas Production - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 (bcm)
84
Table: Gas Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2022 (bcm)
85
Table: LNG Exports - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 (bcm)
85
Table: LNG Exports - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2022 (bcm)
86
Glossary
87
Table: Glossary Of Terms
87
Methodology
89
Industry Forecast Methodology
89
Source
91
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
91
Table: Bmi's Oil & Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Ratings
93
Table: Weighting
95

The Ecuador Oil & Gas Report has been researched at source and features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s independent forecasts for Ecuador including major indicators for oil, gas and LNG, covering all major indicators including reserves, production, consumption, refining capacity, prices, export volumes and values. The report includes full analysis of industry trends and prospects, national and multinational companies and changes in the regulatory environment.

BMI's Ecuador Oil & Gas Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Ecuadorian oil and gas industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent oil and gas industry forecasts for Ecuador to test consensus views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Ecuadorian oil and gas market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Ecuadorian oil and gas sector through reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Ecuador.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and Competitive Landscape Tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI's key forecasts and industry analysis, covering oil and gas reserves, supply, demand and refining, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.

Regional Overview

Regional perspective on size and value of industry sector; comparative rankings by production, refining, imports and exports of oil, gas and LNG.

Business Environment Ratings

BMI's Oil and Gas Business Environment Ratings provide a country-comparative Risk-Reward Ratings index aimed at investors (independents, NOCs, IOCs and oil services companies) in the upstream and downstream markets.

The ratings methodology makes sophisticated use of more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points and is part of BMI's integrated Country Risk-Industry Ratings products.

Oil Market Outlook and Oil Products Outlook

Based on our country coverage of over 99% of global oil and gas production and consumption, BMI provides demand, supply and price forecasts to end-2018 for oil, gas and oil products

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:

Pricing: Oil price (US$/bbl, WTI, Brent, OPEC basket, Urals); Oil products prices (unleaded gasoline, gasoil/diesel, jet/kerosene - US$/bbl) at global hubs

Production, Consumption, Capacity and Reserves: Proven oil reserves (bn barrels), production, consumption, refinery capacity and throughputs (`000b/d); Proven gas reserves (tcm), production and consumption (bcm)

Imports and Exports: Oil exports/imports (`000b/d), value of oil exports/imports (US$mn - BMI base case); Value of oil exports at constant US$50/bbl and constant US$100/bbl (US$mn); Gas exports/imports (bcm), Value of gas exports/imports (US$mn); Value of gas exports/imports at constant US$50/bbl and US$100/bbl (US$mn); Value of petroleum exports/imports (US$mn); Value of petroleum exports/imports at constant US$50/bbl and US$100/bbl (US$mn)

BMI Macroeconomic Forecasts

BMI forecasts to end-2018 for all headline macroeconomic indicators, including real GDP growth, inflation, fiscal balance, trade balance, current account and external debt.

Competitive Landscape

Comparative company analyses by US$ sales, % share of total sales, number of employees, year established, ownership structure, oil production ('000b/d), gas production (bcm), downstream capacity ('000b/d) and % market share.

Company Profiles

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc