Business Monitor International


Ecuador Oil & Gas Report

Published 12 November 2014

  • 95 pages
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  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
 
$1,295.00
Ecuador Oil & Gas Report

BMI View : Ecuador's upstream sector will experience very modest growth in the remainder of the decade, but its downstream sector could see transformation from being a net importer of refined products to a significant exporter of refined products by 2017.  BMI overall holds a bearish outlook for the country, with a big question mark hanging over the future of Ecuador's largest untapped oil field.

Headline Forecasts (Ecuador 2012-2018)
  2012e 2013e 2014f 2015f 2016f 2017f 2018f
Crude, NGPL & other liquids prod, 000b/d 504.7 524.8 525.9 531.2 533.9 536.7 539.6
Dry natural gas production, bcm 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7
Dry natural gas consumption, bcm 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3
Refined products production & ethanol, 000b/d 168.4 169.2 170.0 170.9 171.8 343.5 446.6
Refined products consumption & ethanol, 000b/d 212.8 217.0 225.6 234.2 242.8 251.9 260.0
e/f = BMI estimate/forecast, Source: EIA/BMI

Click here to explore data

The key trends and developments in Ecuador's oil and gas sector are:

  • Oil production will grow through 2018, but gains will be incremental, offset by natural depreciation rates at the country's mature fields. Moreover, a poor above ground environment, including unattractive contract terms and an uncertain regulatory environment, acts as a significant deterrent to greater foreign investment.

  • Recognising that investment is passing them by, Ecuador is trying to improve its image and its options by reaching out to China, which is by far the largest foreign investor in the country's petroleum sector, and Qatar which has been approached by Ecuador as another potential investor.

  • ENI has given Ecuador a rare dose of good news on the discovery side. In September 2014 the company announced a signifigant oil discovery at the Oglan-2 well southeast of Quito. ENI estimates the discovery...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
Table: Headline Forecasts (Ecuador 2012-2018)
7
SWOT
9
Oil & Gas SWOT
9
Industry Forecast
11
Upstream Exploration
11
Table: Proven Oil and Gas Reserves (Ecuador 2012-2017)
11
Table: Proven Oil and Gas Reserves (Ecuador 2018-2023)
11
Upstream Projects
13
Table: Ecuador Major Upstream Projects
13
Upstream Production - Oil
13
Table: Oil Production (Ecuador 2012-2017)
14
Table: Oil Production (Ecuador 2018-2023)
14
Upstream Production - Gas
19
Table: Gas Production (Ecuador 2012-2017)
19
Table: Gas Production (Ecuador 2018-2023)
19
Refining
21
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Ecuador 2012-2017)
21
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Ecuador 2018-2023)
21
Refined Fuels Consumption
24
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Ecuador 2012-2017)
24
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Ecuador 2018-2023)
24
Gas Consumption
26
Table: Gas Consumption (Ecuador 2012-2017)
26
Table: Gas Consumption (Ecuador 2018-2023)
26
Trade - Oil
28
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Ecuador 2012-2017)
28
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Ecuador 2018-2023)
28
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Ecuador 2012-2017)
30
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Ecuador 2018-2023)
30
Table: Total Net Oil Exports - Crude and Products (Ecuador 2012-2017)
31
Table: Total Net Oil Exports - Crude and Products (Ecuador 2018-2023)
32
Trade - Gas (Pipeline and LNG)
33
Table: Gas Net Exports (Ecuador 2012-2017)
33
Table: Gas Net Exports (Ecuador 2018-2023)
33
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
36
Ecuador - Risk/Reward Ratings
36
Ecuador Upstream Ratings
36
Ecuador Downstream Ratings
36
Market Overview
37
Ecuador Energy Market Overview
37
Licensing and Regulation
37
Government Policy
37
Licensing Rounds
38
International Energy Relations
39
Table: Ecuador - Major Upstream Projects
40
Oil And Gas Infrastructure
41
Oil Refineries
41
Table: Refineries in Ecuador
42
Service Stations
44
Oil Pipelines
44
Oil Storage
45
Competitive Landscape
46
Competitive Landscape Summary
46
Table: Key Domestic And Foreign Companies
47
Table: Key Upstream Players
47
Table: Key Downstream Players
47
Company Profile
48
Petroecuador/Petromazonas
48
Eni Ecuador
53
Repsol
56
Other Summaries
59
Regional Overview
62
Latin America Overview
62
Global Industry Overview
71
Global Energy Market Overview
71
Appendix
77
Global - Crude Oil, Refined Fuels and Natural Gas Prices, 10-year Forecasts
77
Table: Energy Price Forecasts, 2012-2017
77
Table: Energy Price Forecasts, 2018-2023
78
Latin America - Regional Appendix
79
Table: Oil Consumption - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 ('000b/d
79
Table: Oil Consumption - Long Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 ('000b/d)
81
Table: Oil Production - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 ('000b/d)
81
Table: Oil Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 ('000b/d)
82
Table: Refining Capacity - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 ('000b/d)
83
Table: Refining Capacity - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 ('000b/d)
83
Table: Gas Consumption - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 (bcm)
84
Table: Gas Consumption - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 (bcm)
84
Table: Gas Production - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 (bcm)
85
Table: Gas Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 (bcm)
86
Table: LNG Exports - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 (bcm)
86
Table: LNG Exports - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 (bcm)
87
Ecuador - Total Hydrocarbons, 10-year Forecast
88
Table: Total Hydrocarbons Production, Consumption and Net Exports (Ecuador 2012-2017)
88
Table: Total Hydrocarbons Production, Consumption and Net Exports (Ecuador 2018-2023)
88
Ecuador - Refined Products Breakdown, 10-year Forecasts
89
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Production Breakdown (Ecuador 2012-2017)
89
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Production Breakdown (Ecuador 2018-2023)
90
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Consumption Breakdown (Ecuador 2012-2017)
91
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Consumption Breakdown (Ecuador 2018-2023)
92
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Net Exports Breakdown (Ecuador 2012-2017)
93
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Net Exports Breakdown (Ecuador 2018-2023)
94
Glossary
96
Table: Glossary Of Terms
96
Methodology
98
Industry Forecast Methodology
98
Source
100
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
100
Table: Bmi's Oil & Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Ratings
102
Table: Weighting
103

The Ecuador Oil & Gas Report has been researched at source and features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s independent forecasts for Ecuador including major indicators for oil, gas and LNG, covering all major indicators including reserves, production, consumption, refining capacity, prices, export volumes and values. The report includes full analysis of industry trends and prospects, national and multinational companies and changes in the regulatory environment.

BMI's Ecuador Oil & Gas Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Ecuadorian oil and gas industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent oil and gas industry forecasts for Ecuador to test consensus views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Ecuadorian oil and gas market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Ecuadorian oil and gas sector through reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Ecuador.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and Competitive Landscape Tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI's key forecasts and industry analysis, covering oil and gas reserves, supply, demand and refining, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.

Regional Overview

Regional perspective on size and value of industry sector; comparative rankings by production, refining, imports and exports of oil, gas and LNG.

Business Environment Rankings

BMI's Oil and Gas Business Environment Rankings provide a country-comparative Risk-Reward Rankings index aimed at investors (independents, NOCs, IOCs and oil services companies) in the upstream and downstream markets.

The rankings methodology makes sophisticated use of more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points and is part of BMI's integrated Country Risk-Industry Rankings products.

Oil Market Outlook and Oil Products Outlook

Based on our country coverage of over 99% of global oil and gas production and consumption, BMI provides demand, supply and price forecasts to end-2018 for oil, gas and oil products

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:

Pricing: Oil price (US$/bbl, WTI, Brent, OPEC basket, Urals); Oil products prices (unleaded gasoline, gasoil/diesel, jet/kerosene - US$/bbl) at global hubs

Production, Consumption, Capacity and Reserves: Proven oil reserves (bn barrels), production, consumption, refinery capacity and throughputs (`000b/d); Proven gas reserves (tcm), production and consumption (bcm)

Imports and Exports: Oil exports/imports (`000b/d), value of oil exports/imports (US$mn - BMI base case); Value of oil exports at constant US$50/bbl and constant US$100/bbl (US$mn); Gas exports/imports (bcm), Value of gas exports/imports (US$mn); Value of gas exports/imports at constant US$50/bbl and US$100/bbl (US$mn); Value of petroleum exports/imports (US$mn); Value of petroleum exports/imports at constant US$50/bbl and US$100/bbl (US$mn)

BMI Macroeconomic Forecasts

BMI forecasts to end-2018 for all headline macroeconomic indicators, including real GDP growth, inflation, fiscal balance, trade balance, current account and external debt.

Competitive Landscape

Comparative company analyses by US$ sales, % share of total sales, number of employees, year established, ownership structure, oil production ('000b/d), gas production (bcm), downstream capacity ('000b/d) and % market share.

Company Profiles

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc