Business Monitor International


East Caribbean Business Forecast Report

Published 26 February 2014

  • 39 pages
  • Instant access to your report online and PDF format through your account library
  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
 
$1,195.00
East Caribbean Business Forecast Report

Core Views:

  • We believe that the East Caribbean region will continue to see a modest economic recovery in the coming quarters, anticipating that the region's more diversified economies will benefit from slightly stronger global growth. Meanwhile, those countries most reliant on tourism and financial services will continue to struggle, as we expect these industries are unlikely to return to pre-crisis levels in the foreseeable future.

  • We expect that Caribbean economies will continue to face economic headwinds in the coming years in light of rising debt burdens, fixed exchange rate regimes, and modest growth prospects. These factors, combined with our view that neither the tourism nor financial services sectors will see a significant recovery in the next few years, mean that we do not rule out additional credit events or major balance of payments corrections in some of the small island economies.

  • Should the Venezuelan government significantly alter the terms of its Petrocaribe programme, which provides subsidised oil imports to many Caribbean economies, it could send import bills much higher and potentially cause some countries to default on their outstanding oil loans.

Major Forecast Changes:

  • We have adjusted our 2013 current account estimate and 2014 forecast for Trinidad & Tobago (T&T) to factor in weaker energy-sector output in H213, owing to temporary maintenance projects at two key downstream plants, although we expect production of liquefied natural gas to return to full capacity by the second quarter of 2014. As such, we forecast a current account surplus of 9.8% of GDP in 2014 (from 10.9%, previously), up from an estimated 8.9% of GDP (from 10.8%, previously) in 2013.

  • We have revised up our 2013 real GDP growth estimate for Guyana to 4.5%, from 4.3% previously, as the services and mining sectors continued to drive robust economic activity in H213. However, we maintain our 2014 real GDP growth forecast at 4.0%, owing to our relatively cautious...

Table of Contents

Composite Rating
5
BMI Risk Ratings - Barbados
6
BMI Risk Ratings - Guyana
7
BMI Risk Ratings - Trinidad & Tobago
8
BMI Ratings - East Caribbean Table
9
Caribbean SWOTS
10
Executive Summary
13
Core Views
13
Major Forecast Changes
13
Key Risk To Outlook
13
Chapter 1
1: Political Outlook - Barbados
Fiscal Policy
15
Political Will Essential To Averting Debt Crisis
15
Chapter 1
2: Economic Outlook - Barbados
Balance of Payments
17
Pressure On External & Fiscal Accounts May Necessitate Aid Package
17
TABLE: BARBADOS - MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS
17
Chapter 2
1: Political Outlook - Guyana
Domestic Politics
19
Political Polarisation To Persist, Preventing Reform
19
Chapter 2
2: Economic Outlook - Guyana
Economic Analysis
21
Weaker Gold Prices Underpin More Moderate Growth Outlook
21
TABLE: GUYANA - ECONOMIC ACTIVITY
21
Chapter 3
1: Political Outlook - Trinidad & Tobago
Domestic Politics
23
Improving Diplomatic Relationship Prompts Risk Rating Upgrade
23
Chapter 3
2: Economic Outlook - Trinidad & Tobago
Economic Activity
25
Moderate Acceleration In Growth During 2014
25
TABLE: TRINIDAD & TOBAGO - ECONOMIC ACTIVITY
25
Monetary Policy
26
Rate Hikes On The Cards For H214
26
TABLE: TRINIDAD & TOBAGO - MONETARY POLICY
27
Chapter 4: Country Summaries
29
St Kitts And Nevis
29
Economic Activity
29
TABLE: St Kitts And Nevis - MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS
29
St Lucia
30
Economic Activity
30
TABLE: ST LUCIA - ECONOMIC ACTIVITY
31
Antigua And Barbuda
32
Economic Activity
32
TABLE: ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA - MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS
33
Chapter 5: BMI Global Assumptions
35
Global Outlook
35
Fairly Benign Prognosis
35
Table : Global Assumptions
35
Table : Developed States , Real GDP Growt H, %
36
Table : BMI VERSUS BLOOMBERG CONSENSUS REAL GDP GROWTH FORECASTS, %
36
Table : Emerging Markets , Real GDP Growth , %
37

The East Caribbean Business Forecast Report helps businesses with market assessment, strategic planning and decision making to promote growth and profitability in Anguilla, Antigua & Barbuda, Barbados, Dominica, Grenada, Guyana, Montserrat, St Kitts & St Nevis, St Lucia, St Maarten, St Vincent & The Grenadines, Suriname and Trinidad & Tobago and is an essential tool for CEOs, Chairmen, Finance Directors/CFOs, Managing Directors, Marketing/Sales Directors with commercial interests in this emerging market..

An influential new analysis of The East Caribbean's economic, political and financial prospects through end-2017, just published by award-winning forecasters, Business Monitor International (BMI).

Key Uses

  • Forecast the pace and stability of The East Caribbean's economic and industry growth through end-2017.
  • Identify and evaluate adverse political and economic trends, to facilitate risk mitigation.
  • Assess the critical shortcomings of the business environment that pose hidden barriers and costs to corporate profitability.
  • Contextualise The East Caribbean's country risks against regional peers using BMI's country comparative Risk Ratings system.
  • Evaluate external threats to doing business in The East Caribbean, including currency volatility, the commodity price boom and protectionist policies.

The East Caribbean Business Forecast Report by Business Monitor International (BMI) includes two major sections: Economic Outlook and Political Outlook.

Economic Outlook:

How will the the East Caribbean economic policy-making and performance impact on corporate profitability over 2013-2017?

BMI provides our fully independent 5-year forecasts for The East Caribbean through end-2017 for more than 50 economic and key industry indicators. We evaluate growth, and also forecast the impact of economic management.

Economic Outlook Contents

The East Caribbean Business Forecast Report features BMI's forecasts with supporting analysis for 2013 through to end-2017, set against government views and BMI's evaluation of global and regional prospects.

Key Areas Covered:

Data:

  • Full 10-year forecasts with data - for key macroeconomic variables including GDP (real growth and per capita), population, inflation, current account balance and the exchange rate.
  • BMI's comprehensive Risk Ratings system - rates each country worldwide for economic and political risk, and rates the business environment, within a global and regional context.

Written Analysis:

  • Economic Activity - real GDP growth, employment, inflation, consumption (retail sales and confidence).
  • Balance of Payments - trade and investment, current and capital account.
  • Monetary Policy - interest rate trends (bank lending and deposit rates) and inflation (producer price and consumer price).
  • Exchange Rate Policy - currency controls, foreign investment flows, exchange rates and foreign exchange reserves.
  • Fiscal Policy - macroeconomic strategy and policies, government finance and tax reforms.
  • Foreign Direct Investment - approvals, inflows and climate.
  • External Debt - debt profile (short and long-term plus public and private sector exposure).
  • Global Assumptions - forecasts for each year to end-2017 covering: major commodities, growth in key regions, inflation, and interest and exchange rates, in the United States, Japan, China and the eurozone.

Key Benefits

  • Rely upon BMI's 100% independent forecast scenarios for The East Caribbean and underlying assumptions - we take no advertising and are privately-owned.
  • Exploit the benefits of BMI's comprehensive and reliable macroeconomic database on The East Caribbean, sourced and fully maintained by BMI from an extensive network of private sector, government and multilateral contacts.
  • Gain key insights into the current and future direction of government economic policy, which could significantly affect your company's business prospects, from BMI's team of analysts and economists.

Political Outlook:

What are the political risks to doing business in The East Caribbean over the next 5-years?

BMI's The East Caribbean country Risk Ratings evaluate the short- and medium-term threats to political stability.

Political Outlook Contents

  • SWOT Analysis for the the East Caribbean Market - Political Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats facing The East Caribbean.
  • Political Stability and Risk Assessment - BMI's Risk Ratings assess explicit short- and long-term risks to political stability; latest ratings, rankings and trends for The East Caribbean's risk are compared with regional and global averages.
  • Current Administration and Policy-making BMI assesses the threats to the continuity of economic policy, and likely changes to the business operating environment.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark The East Caribbean's risk profile against its neighbours, the global and regional average, allowing easy comparison of risks between key business markets.
  • Identify, evaluate and anticipate political and security risks to the business environment, and to your company's current operations and future plans.
  • Gain valuable insights into government and policy-making, through BMI's specialist team of analysts and economists, and their network of private and public sector sources.

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Testimonials

The sections that I find most interesting and useful are the macroeconomic data and forecasts for the country, top export destinations and economic activity. The indicators/analysis of these areas helps us orient our thinking, our assumptions and, consequently, our decisions in the commercial area.

Country Manager, DHL Express