Business Monitor International


East Africa Telecommunications Report

Published 24 December 2014

  • 142 pages
  • Instant access to your report online and PDF format through your account library
  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
 
$1,295.00
East Africa Telecommunications Report

BMI View: Our Q115 East Africa report analyses latest industry, regulatory and macroeconomic developments in the telecoms markets of Burundi, Ethiopia, Malawi, Rwanda, South Sudan and Sudan. The five markets are characterised by relatively low mobile penetration rates, partly due to a combination of low urbanisation and low spending power in rural areas to support a strong business case for network expansion to those areas. While this guarantees long-term subscriptions growth for mobile operators in these countries, we expect then to focus on data services and other non-voice services in the short-term to drive revenue growth .

Key Data

  • Average mobile market growth in the six countries in Q314 was 2.4%. South Sudan recorded the highest growth rate, estimated at 5.3%, while Sudan recorded the largest contraction of 2.4%.

  • Average mobile penetration among the six countries was 40.9% at the end of September 2014. Sudan had the highest penetration rate at 69.4% and South Sudan the lowest, at 23.2%.

  • Average monthly ARPU fell below US$3 in 2013. Only South Sudan recorded ARPU of more than US$5, while Burundi, Malawi and Rwanda reported sub-US$3.5 ARPUs.

Risk/Reward Ratings

Most of the countries in our East Africa report are underperformers on the regional scale in our Sub-Saharan Africa Risk/Reward Ratings (RRR) table. This is due to a combination of a number of industry specific and macroeconomic factors. The industry specific factors include continued monopoly in the Ethiopian telecoms sector, relatively low ARPUs because of price competition and low income levels, and political and economic uncertainty in some of the markets.

Key Trends And Developments

Rwanda's broadband sector is set for strong growth in the coming years following the launch of the Olleh Rwanda Networks (ORN), the joint venture wholesale LTE network between the Rwanda government and KT Corporation, in November 2014 and the subsequent launch of commercial LTE services during the same...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
SWOT
11
Industry Forecast
13
Burundi
13
Table: Telecoms Sector - Historical Data & Forecasts (Burundi 2011-2018)
13
Ethiopia
17
Table: Telecoms Sector - Historical Data & Forecasts (Ethiopia 2011-2018)
17
Malawi
21
Table: Telecoms Sector - Historical Data & Forecasts (Malawi 2011-2018)
21
Rwanda
24
Table: Telecoms Sector - Historical Data & Forecasts (Rwanda 2011-2018)
24
South Sudan
28
Table: Telecoms Sector - Historical Data & Forecasts (South Sudan 2011-2018)
28
Sudan
31
Table: Telecoms Sector - Historical Data & Forecasts (Sudan 2011-2018)
31
Industry Risk/Reward Ratings
35
Table: Q414 Africa RRR Table
39
Market Overview
41
Burundi
41
Mobile
41
Table: Burundi Mobile Regional Comparison, 2013
41
Fixed Line And Internet
46
Ethiopia
48
Mobile
48
Table: Ethiopia Mobile Regional Comparison, 2013
48
Fixed Line & Internet
54
Malawi
57
Mobile
57
Table: Malawi Mobile Regional Comparison, 2013
57
Fixed Line And Internet
62
Rwanda
64
Mobile
64
Table: Rwanda Mobile Regional Comparison, 2013
64
Fixed Line And Internet
72
South Sudan
77
Mobile
77
Table: Sudan Mobile Regional Comparison 2013
77
Fixed Line And Internet
82
Sudan
85
Mobile
85
Table: Sudan Mobile Regional Comparison, 2013
85
Fixed-Line And Internet
93
Africa Mobile Content
95
Table: Selected Regional VAS Developments, H114
100
Regulatory Development
104
Regulatory Overview
104
Table: East Africa Regulatory Environment
104
Burundi
104
Ethiopia
105
Malawi
106
Rwanda
107
South Sudan
108
Sudan
109
Company Profile
110
Zain Sudan
110
Sudatel
114
MTN
118
Table: MTN Operational Indicators
121
Airtel Africa
123
Table: Selected Key Developments
127
Regional Overview
130
Table: HTA Footprint, July 2014
130
Demographic Forecast
135
Burundi
135
Table: Burundi's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
136
Table: Burundi's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
137
Table: Burundi's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
138
Table: Burundi's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
138
Ethiopia
139
Table: Ethiopia's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
140
Table: Ethiopia's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
141
Table: Ethiopia's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
142
Table: Ethiopia's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
142
Malawi
143
Table: Malawi's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
144
Table: Malawi's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
145
Table: Malawi's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
146
Table: Malawi's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
146
Rwanda
147
Table: Rwanda's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
148
Table: Rwanda's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
149
Table: Rwanda's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
150
Table: Rwanda's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
150
Demographic Forecast - Sudan
151
Table: Sudan's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
152
Table: Sudan's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
153
Table: Sudan's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
154
Table: Sudan's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
154
Glossary
155
Table: Glossary Of Terms
155
Methodology
157
Industry Forecast Methodology
157
Sources
159
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
159
Table: Risk/Reward Ratings Indicators
160
Table: Weighting Of Indicators
161

The East Africa Telecommunications Report features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s independent industry forecasts on the future strength of Sudan, Ethiopia, Malawi, Rwanda, Burundi's ICT market, covering the fixed-line, mobile and internet segments and analyses latest regulatory developments and corporate news, including investment activity, mergers and acquisitions, joint ventures and partnerships. Leading operators and manufacturers are fully profiled, highlighting their quarterly financial performance, capital expenditure plans and latest contracts.

BMI's East Africa Telecommunications Report provides industry professionals and researchers, operators, equipment suppliers and vendors, corporate and financial services analysts and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the telecoms industry in Sudan, Ethiopia, Malawi, Rwanda, Burundi.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent telecoms industry forecasts for Sudan, Ethiopia, Malawi, Rwanda, Burundi to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Sudanese, Ethiopian, Malawian, Rwandan, Burundian telecoms market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in Sudan, Ethiopia, Malawi, Rwanda, Burundi's telecoms sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Sudan, Ethiopia, Malawi, Rwanda, Burundi.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity).

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts and views, covering the ARPU, fi xed-line, mobile (including 3G & 4G ), internet and broadband markets.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the wireline and wireless sectors and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI Industry Forecast Scenario

Historic data series (2010-2013) and forecasts to end-2019 for all key industry indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast.

  • Fixed-line Telephony – Telephone lines (‘000); telephone lines/100 inhabitants.
  • Cellular Telephony – Mobile phone subscribers (‘000); mobile phone subscribers/100 inhabitants; and where available, 3G & 4G subscribers (‘000); 3G & 4G subscribers/100 inhabitants; 3G & 4G subscribers as a percentage of overall mobile market.
  • Internet Markets – Internet users (‘000); internet users/100 inhabitants; broadband internet subscribers (‘000); broadband internet subscribers/100 inhabitants.

BMI’s Telecommunications Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (vendors, operators and suppliers) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country comparative assessment of a market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide an Indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.

Market Data Analysis

Detailed market analysis of the mobile, mobile content, fixed-line and internet segments, broken down into:

  • Market Data – Analysis of market size, operator shares, dominant trends, competitive landscape and key quarterly data.
  • Technology/Service Rollout – Analysis of rollout/adoption of new technology, such as 3G & 4G, WiMAX, IPTV, pay-TV, LTE and valueadded handset services (gaming, music, video, apps etc.).
  • Mobile Content – The latest trends in content and services available and being introduced by mobile operators, including a timeline of all the latest major mobile content developments.
    Company Database – A comprehensive breakdown of KPIs of the leading mobile operators, including subscriber figures by type (pre-paid and post-paid); 3G & 4G subscriber figures; net additions; market share; ARPU; churn rates; minutes of use; voice and non-voice revenue; financial figures (including operating revenues, net profits and EBITDA).

Regulatory Environment

Details of the regulatory bodies and their responsibilities, as well as a special focus on the rules surrounding competition and interconnection. Also covers the latest updates in the market’s development and regulatory rulings.

Company Profiles*

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

Sources

The Telecommunications Reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc