Business Monitor International


East Africa Telecommunications Report

Published 02 October 2014

  • 141 pages
  • Instant access to your report online and PDF format through your account library
  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
 
$1,295.00
East Africa Telecommunications Report

BMI View: Our Q 4 14 East Africa report analyses latest industry, regulatory and macroeconomic developments in the telecoms markets of Burundi, Ethiopia, Malawi, Rwanda, South Sudan and Sudan. Analysis of market data provided by telecoms regulators and network operators show that despite fairly low mobile penetration rates, subscriptions growth in most markets continued to slow in the first half of 2014, compared to 2013 and 2012. ARPUs also drop ped further in countries with the most competitive markets and are now firmly in low single digits . The combination of these factors is leading operators to further diversify their non-voice service portfolios, in order to sustain revenue growth through a more diverse range of services . We expect operators to compliment the expansion of their high value mobile data services with efficiency improvement solutions to reduce operating expenses.

Key Data

  • Average mobile market growth in the six countries in Q214 was 1.6%. Rwanda recorded the highest growth rate, estimated at 5.5%, while South Sudan recorded the largest contraction of 2.6% for the second consecutive quarter.

  • Average mobile penetration among the six countries was 40.8% at the end of June 2014. Sudan had the highest penetration rate at 71.1% and South Sudan the lowest, at 22.0%.

  • Average monthly ARPU fell below US$3 in 2013. Only South Sudan recorded ARPU of more than US$5, while Burundi, Malawi and Rwanda reported sub-US$3.5 ARPUs.

Risk/Reward Ratings

Most of the countries in our East Africa report are underperformers on the regional scale in our Sub-Saharan Africa Risk/Reward Ratings (RRR) table. This is due to a combination of a number of industry specific and macroeconomic factors. The industry specific factors include continued monopoly in the Ethiopian telecoms sector, relatively low ARPUs because of price competition and low income levels, and political and economic uncertainty in some of the markets.

Key Trends And...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
SWOT
11
Industry Forecast
13
Burundi
13
Table: Telecoms Sector - Historical Data & Forecasts (Burundi 2011-2018)
13
Ethiopia
17
Table: Telecoms Sector - Historical Data & Forecasts (Ethiopia 2011-2018)
17
Malawi
21
Table: Telecoms Sector - Historical Data & Forecasts (Malawi 2011-2018)
21
Rwanda
24
Table: Telecoms Sector - Historical Data & Forecasts (Rwanda 2011-2018)
24
South Sudan
28
Table: Telecoms Sector - Historical Data & Forecasts (South Sudan 2011-2018)
28
Sudan
31
Table: Telecoms Sector - Historical Data & Forecasts (Sudan 2011-2018)
31
Industry Risk/Reward Ratings
35
Table: Q414 Africa RRR Table
39
Market Overview
41
Burundi
41
Mobile
41
Table: Burundi Mobile Regional Comparison, 2013
41
Fixed Line And Internet
46
Ethiopia
48
Mobile
48
Table: Ethiopia Mobile Regional Comparison, 2013
48
Fixed Line & Internet
54
Malawi
57
Mobile
57
Table: Malawi Mobile Regional Comparison, 2013
57
Fixed Line And Internet
62
Rwanda
64
Mobile
64
Table: Rwanda Mobile Regional Comparison, 2013
64
Fixed Line And Internet
72
South Sudan
77
Mobile
77
Table: Sudan Mobile Regional Comparison 2013
77
Fixed Line And Internet
82
Sudan
85
Mobile
85
Table: Sudan Mobile Regional Comparison, 2013
85
Fixed-Line And Internet
93
Africa Mobile Content
95
Table: Selected Regional VAS Developments, H114
100
Regulatory Development
104
Regulatory Overview
104
Table: East Africa Regulatory Environment
104
Burundi
104
Ethiopia
105
Malawi
106
Rwanda
107
South Sudan
108
Sudan
109
Company Profile
110
Zain Sudan
110
Sudatel
114
MTN
118
Table: MTN Operational Indicators
121
Airtel Africa
123
Table: Selected Key Developments
127
Regional Overview
130
Table: HTA Footprint, July 2014
130
Demographic Forecast
135
Burundi
135
Table: Burundi's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
136
Table: Burundi's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
137
Table: Burundi's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
138
Table: Burundi's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
138
Ethiopia
139
Table: Ethiopia's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
140
Table: Ethiopia's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
141
Table: Ethiopia's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
142
Table: Ethiopia's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
142
Malawi
143
Table: Malawi's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
144
Table: Malawi's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
145
Table: Malawi's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
146
Table: Malawi's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
146
Rwanda
147
Table: Rwanda's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
148
Table: Rwanda's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
149
Table: Rwanda's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
150
Table: Rwanda's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
150
Demographic Forecast - Sudan
151
Table: Sudan's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
152
Table: Sudan's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
153
Table: Sudan's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
154
Table: Sudan's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
154
Glossary
155
Table: Glossary Of Terms
155
Methodology
157
Industry Forecast Methodology
157
Sources
159
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
159
Table: Risk/Reward Ratings Indicators
160
Table: Weighting Of Indicators
161

The East Africa Telecommunications Report features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s independent industry forecasts on the future strength of Sudan, Ethiopia, Malawi, Rwanda, Burundi's ICT market, covering the fixed-line, mobile and internet segments and analyses latest regulatory developments and corporate news, including investment activity, mergers and acquisitions, joint ventures and partnerships. Leading operators and manufacturers are fully profiled, highlighting their quarterly financial performance, capital expenditure plans and latest contracts.

BMI's East Africa Telecommunications Report provides industry professionals and researchers, operators, equipment suppliers and vendors, corporate and financial services analysts and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the telecoms industry in Sudan, Ethiopia, Malawi, Rwanda, Burundi.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent telecoms industry forecasts for Sudan, Ethiopia, Malawi, Rwanda, Burundi to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Sudanese, Ethiopian, Malawian, Rwandan, Burundian telecoms market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in Sudan, Ethiopia, Malawi, Rwanda, Burundi's telecoms sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Sudan, Ethiopia, Malawi, Rwanda, Burundi.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity).

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts and views, covering the ICT, fixed-line, mobile (including 3G), internet and broadband markets.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the wireline and wireless sectors and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

Business Environment Rankings

BMI's Telecommunications Business Environment Rankings provides a country-comparative Risk-Reward Rankings index aimed at investors (vendors, operators and suppliers) in the regional telecoms market.

The rankings methodology makes sophisticated use of more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points.

BMI Industry Forecast Scenario

Historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry indicators (see list below) supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast.

  • Fixed-Line Telephony - Telephone lines ('000); telephone lines/100 inhabitants.
  • Cellular Telephony - Mobile phone subscribers ('000); mobile phone subscribers/100 inhabitants; mobile phone subscribers/100 fixed line subscribers.
  • Internet Markets - Internet users ('000); internet users/100 inhabitants; broadband internet subscribers ('000); broadband internet subscribers/100 inhabitants.

Market Data Analysis

Detailed market analysis of the mobile, mobile content, fixed line and internet segments, broken down into:

  • Market Data - Analysis of market size, operator shares, dominant trends, competitive landscape and key quarterly data.
  • Technology/Service Rollout - Analysis of rollout/adoption of new technology, such as 3G, WiMAX, IPTV, pay-TV, LTE and value-added handset services (gaming, music, video, apps etc.).
  • Mobile Content - The latest trends in content and services available and being introduced by mobile operators. Including a timeline of all the latest major mobile content developments.
  • Company Database - A comprehensive breakdown of KPIs of the leading mobile operators, including subscriber figures by type (pre-paid and post-paid); 3G subscriber figures; net additions; market share; ARPU; churn rates; minutes of use; voice and non-voice revenue; financial figures (including operating revenues, net profits and EBITDA).

Regulatory Environment

Details of the regulatory bodies and their responsibilities, as well as a special focus on the rules surrounding competition and interconnection. The latest updates in the market's development and regulatory rulings.

Company Profiles

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses.

The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

secure
Benefit from discounts when you add multiple products to your basket
2 Products SAVE 10%
3 Products SAVE 15%
4 Products SAVE 20%
5 Products SAVE 25%
6 Products SAVE 30%
7 - 20 Products SAVE 35%
21 Products or more SAVE 40%

Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc