Business Monitor International


East Africa Telecommunications Report

Published 12 March 2014

  • 141 pages
  • Instant access to your report online and PDF format through your account library
  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
 
$1,295.00
East Africa Telecommunications Report

BMI View: Our Q214 East Africa report analyses latest industry, regulatory and macroeconomic developments in the telecoms markets of Burundi, Ethiopia, Malawi, Rwanda, South Sudan and Sudan. Analysis of market data provided by telecoms regulators and network operators show slightly slower subscriptions growth across the six countries in 2013 compared to 2012. ARPUs continued to drop in countries with competitive markets and are now firmly in low single digits, a situation affecting operators' profitability. We expect operators to introduce high-value services targeted at wealthy segments of the population to drive revenue growth, while also implementing efficiency improvement solutions to reduce operating expenses.

Key Data

  • Average mobile market growth in the six countries in 2013 was 19.5%. Ethiopia recorded the highest growth rate, estimated at 29.1%, while the lowest was Sudan at 2.8%.

  • Average mobile penetration among the six countries rose to 41% at the end of December 2013, up from 36.6% at the end of 2012.

  • Average monthly ARPU fell below US$3 in 2013. Only South Sudan recorded ARPU of more than US$5, while Burundi, Malawi and Rwanda reported sub-US$3.5 ARPUs.

Risk/Reward Ratings

Most of the countries in our East Africa report are underperformers on the regional scale in our Sub-Saharan Africa Risk/Reward Ratings (RRR) table. This is due to a combination of a number of industry specific and macroeconomic factors. The industry specific factors include continued monopoly in the Ethiopian telecoms sector, relatively low ARPUs because of price competition and low income levels, and political and economic uncertainty in some of the markets.

Key Trends And Developments

There were two major developments in Burundi's telecoms sector since our last update that have the potential to drive growth and investment into fixed and mobile networks during our forecast period. These are the award of a sixth mobile license to Vietnam-based Vietttel and the...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
SWOT
11
Industry Forecast
13
Burundi
13
Table: Burundi Telecoms Sector - Historical Data & Forecast
13
Ethiopia
16
Table: Ethiopia Telecoms Sector - Historical Data & Forecast
16
Malawi
19
Table: Malawi Telecoms Sector - Historical Data & Forecast
19
Rwanda
21
Table: Rwanda Telecoms Sector - Historical Data & Forecast
21
South Sudan
24
Table: South Sudan Telecoms Sector - Historical Data & Forecast
24
Sudan
26
Table: Sudan Telecoms Sector - Historical Data & Forecast
26
Industry Risk/Reward Ratings
30
Table: Sub-Saharan Africa Risks/rewards ratings Q214
33
Market Overview
35
Burundi
35
Mobile
35
Table: Burundi Mobile Regional Comparison, 2013
35
Fixed Line And Internet
39
Ethiopia
41
Mobile
41
Table: Ethiopia Mobile Regional Comparison, 2013
41
Fixed Line & Internet
46
Malawi
48
Mobile
48
Table: Malawi Mobile Regional Comparison, 2013
48
Fixed Line And Internet
52
Rwanda
55
Mobile
55
Table: Rwanda Mobile Regional Comparison, 2013
55
Fixed Line And Internet
60
South Sudan
63
Mobile
63
Table: Sudan Mobile Regional Comparison 2013
63
Fixed Line And Internet
67
Sudan
70
Mobile
70
Table: Sudan Mobile Regional Comparison, 2013
70
Fixed Line And Internet
76
Africa Mobile Content
78
Table: Selected Non-Voice Service Deployments In 2013
81
Regulatory Development
83
Regulatory Overview
83
Table: East Africa Regulatory Environment
83
Burundi
83
Ethiopia
84
Malawi
85
Rwanda
86
South Sudan
87
Sudan
88
Company Profile
89
Zain Sudan
89
Sudatel
92
MTN
96
Table: MTN Operational Indicators
99
Regional Overview
101
Huawei
101
Table: Huawei's Major Contract Wins In Sub-Saharan Africa, 2013
103
Demographic Forecast
105
Burundi
105
Table: Burundi's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
106
Table: Burundi's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
107
Table: Burundi's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
108
Table: Burundi's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
108
Demographic Outlook
109
Table: Ethiopia's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
110
Table: Ethiopia's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
111
Table: Ethiopia's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
112
Table: Ethiopia's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
112
Malawi
113
Table: Malawi's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
114
Table: Malawi's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
115
Table: Malawi's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
116
Table: Malawi's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
116
Rwanda
117
Table: Rwanda's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
118
Table: Rwanda's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
119
Table: Rwanda's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
120
Table: Rwanda's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
120
Demographic Outlook
121
Table: Sudan's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
122
Table: Sudan's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
123
Table: Sudan's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
124
Table: Sudan's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
124
Glossary
125
Table: Glossary Of Terms
125
Methodology
127
Industry Forecast Methodology
127
Sources
128
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
129
Table: Risk/Reward Ratings Indicators
130
Table: Weighting Of Indicators
131

The East Africa Telecommunications Report features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s independent industry forecasts on the future strength of Sudan, Ethiopia, Malawi, Rwanda, Burundi's ICT market, covering the fixed-line, mobile and internet segments and analyses latest regulatory developments and corporate news, including investment activity, mergers and acquisitions, joint ventures and partnerships. Leading operators and manufacturers are fully profiled, highlighting their quarterly financial performance, capital expenditure plans and latest contracts.

BMI's East Africa Telecommunications Report provides industry professionals and researchers, operators, equipment suppliers and vendors, corporate and financial services analysts and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the telecoms industry in Sudan, Ethiopia, Malawi, Rwanda, Burundi.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent telecoms industry forecasts for Sudan, Ethiopia, Malawi, Rwanda, Burundi to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Sudanese, Ethiopian, Malawian, Rwandan, Burundian telecoms market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in Sudan, Ethiopia, Malawi, Rwanda, Burundi's telecoms sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Sudan, Ethiopia, Malawi, Rwanda, Burundi.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity).

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts and views, covering the ICT, fixed-line, mobile (including 3G), internet and broadband markets.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the wireline and wireless sectors and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

Business Environment Ratings

BMI's Telecommunications Business Environment Ratings provides a country-comparative Risk-Reward Ratings index aimed at investors (vendors, operators and suppliers) in the regional telecoms market.

The ratings methodology makes sophisticated use of more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points.

BMI Industry Forecast Scenario

Historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry indicators (see list below) supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast.

  • Fixed-Line Telephony - Telephone lines ('000); telephone lines/100 inhabitants.
  • Cellular Telephony - Mobile phone subscribers ('000); mobile phone subscribers/100 inhabitants; mobile phone subscribers/100 fixed line subscribers.
  • Internet Markets - Internet users ('000); internet users/100 inhabitants; broadband internet subscribers ('000); broadband internet subscribers/100 inhabitants.

Market Data Analysis

Detailed market analysis of the mobile, mobile content, fixed line and internet segments, broken down into:

  • Market Data - Analysis of market size, operator shares, dominant trends, competitive landscape and key quarterly data.
  • Technology/Service Rollout - Analysis of rollout/adoption of new technology, such as 3G, WiMAX, IPTV, pay-TV, LTE and value-added handset services (gaming, music, video, apps etc.).
  • Mobile Content - The latest trends in content and services available and being introduced by mobile operators. Including a timeline of all the latest major mobile content developments.
  • Company Database - A comprehensive breakdown of KPIs of the leading mobile operators, including subscriber figures by type (pre-paid and post-paid); 3G subscriber figures; net additions; market share; ARPU; churn rates; minutes of use; voice and non-voice revenue; financial figures (including operating revenues, net profits and EBITDA).

Regulatory Environment

Details of the regulatory bodies and their responsibilities, as well as a special focus on the rules surrounding competition and interconnection. The latest updates in the market's development and regulatory rulings.

Company Profiles

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses.

The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc