Business Monitor International


East Africa Telecommunications Report

Published 02 October 2014

  • 141 pages
  • Instant access to your report online and PDF format through your account library
  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
 
$1,295.00
East Africa Telecommunications Report

BMI View: Our Q 4 14 East Africa report analyses latest industry, regulatory and macroeconomic developments in the telecoms markets of Burundi, Ethiopia, Malawi, Rwanda, South Sudan and Sudan. Analysis of market data provided by telecoms regulators and network operators show that despite fairly low mobile penetration rates, subscriptions growth in most markets continued to slow in the first half of 2014, compared to 2013 and 2012. ARPUs also drop ped further in countries with the most competitive markets and are now firmly in low single digits . The combination of these factors is leading operators to further diversify their non-voice service portfolios, in order to sustain revenue growth through a more diverse range of services . We expect operators to compliment the expansion of their high value mobile data services with efficiency improvement solutions to reduce operating expenses.

Key Data

  • Average mobile market growth in the six countries in Q214 was 1.6%. Rwanda recorded the highest growth rate, estimated at 5.5%, while South Sudan recorded the largest contraction of 2.6% for the second consecutive quarter.

  • Average mobile penetration among the six countries was 40.8% at the end of June 2014. Sudan had the highest penetration rate at 71.1% and South Sudan the lowest, at 22.0%.

  • Average monthly ARPU fell below US$3 in 2013. Only South Sudan recorded ARPU of more than US$5, while Burundi, Malawi and Rwanda reported sub-US$3.5 ARPUs.

Risk/Reward Ratings

Most of the countries in our East Africa report are underperformers on the regional scale in our Sub-Saharan Africa Risk/Reward Ratings (RRR) table. This is due to a combination of a number of industry specific and macroeconomic factors. The industry specific factors include continued monopoly in the Ethiopian telecoms sector, relatively low ARPUs because of price competition and low income levels, and political and economic uncertainty in some of the markets.

Key Trends And...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
SWOT
11
Industry Forecast
13
Burundi
13
Table: Telecoms Sector - Historical Data & Forecasts (Burundi 2011-2018)
13
Ethiopia
16
Table: Telecoms Sector - Historical Data & Forecasts (Ethiopia 2011-2018)
16
Malawi
19
Table: Telecoms Sector - Historical Data & Forecasts (Malawi 2011-2018)
19
Rwanda
22
Table: Telecoms Sector - Historical Data & Forecasts (Rwanda 2011-2018)
22
South Sudan
25
Table: Telecoms Sector - Historical Data & Forecasts (South Sudan 2011-2018)
25
Sudan
28
Table: Telecoms Sector - Historical Data & Forecasts (Sudan 2011-2018)
28
Industry Risk/Reward Ratings
32
Table: Sub-Saharan Africa Telecoms RRRs, Q314
35
Market Overview
37
Burundi
37
Mobile
37
Table: Burundi Mobile Regional Comparison, 2013
37
Fixed Line And Internet
42
Ethiopia
44
Mobile
44
Table: Ethiopia Mobile Regional Comparison, 2013
44
Fixed Line & Internet
49
Malawi
51
Mobile
51
Table: Malawi Mobile Regional Comparison, 2013
51
Fixed Line And Internet
56
Rwanda
58
Mobile
58
Table: Rwanda Mobile Regional Comparison, 2013
58
Fixed Line And Internet
64
South Sudan
67
Mobile
67
Table: Sudan Mobile Regional Comparison 2013
67
Fixed Line And Internet
71
Sudan
74
Mobile
74
Table: Sudan Mobile Regional Comparison, 2013
74
Fixed-Line And Internet
82
Africa Mobile Content
84
Table: Selected Non-Voice Service Deployments In 2013
87
Regulatory Development
89
Regulatory Overview
89
Table: East Africa Regulatory Environment
89
Burundi
89
Ethiopia
90
Malawi
91
Rwanda
92
South Sudan
93
Sudan
94
Company Profile
95
Zain Sudan
95
Sudatel
99
MTN
103
Table: MTN Operational Indicators
106
Airtel Africa
108
Table: Selected Key Developments
111
Regional Overview
114
Aviat Networks Seek Regional Growth Opportunities
114
Demographic Forecast
118
Burundi
118
Table: Burundi's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
119
Table: Burundi's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
120
Table: Burundi's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
121
Table: Burundi's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
121
Ethiopia
122
Table: Ethiopia's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
123
Table: Ethiopia's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
124
Table: Ethiopia's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
125
Table: Ethiopia's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
125
Malawi
126
Table: Malawi's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
127
Table: Malawi's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
128
Table: Malawi's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
129
Table: Malawi's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
129
Rwanda
130
Table: Rwanda's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
131
Table: Rwanda's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
132
Table: Rwanda's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
133
Table: Rwanda's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
133
Sudan
134
Table: Sudan's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
135
Table: Sudan's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
136
Table: Sudan's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
137
Table: Sudan's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
137
Glossary
138
Table: Glossary Of Terms
138
Methodology
140
Industry Forecast Methodology
140
Sources
141
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
142
Table: Risk/Reward Ratings Indicators
143
Table: Weighting Of Indicators
144

The East Africa Telecommunications Report features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s independent industry forecasts on the future strength of Sudan, Ethiopia, Malawi, Rwanda, Burundi's ICT market, covering the fixed-line, mobile and internet segments and analyses latest regulatory developments and corporate news, including investment activity, mergers and acquisitions, joint ventures and partnerships. Leading operators and manufacturers are fully profiled, highlighting their quarterly financial performance, capital expenditure plans and latest contracts.

BMI's East Africa Telecommunications Report provides industry professionals and researchers, operators, equipment suppliers and vendors, corporate and financial services analysts and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the telecoms industry in Sudan, Ethiopia, Malawi, Rwanda, Burundi.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent telecoms industry forecasts for Sudan, Ethiopia, Malawi, Rwanda, Burundi to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Sudanese, Ethiopian, Malawian, Rwandan, Burundian telecoms market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in Sudan, Ethiopia, Malawi, Rwanda, Burundi's telecoms sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Sudan, Ethiopia, Malawi, Rwanda, Burundi.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity).

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts and views, covering the ICT, fixed-line, mobile (including 3G), internet and broadband markets.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the wireline and wireless sectors and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

Business Environment Rankings

BMI's Telecommunications Business Environment Rankings provides a country-comparative Risk-Reward Rankings index aimed at investors (vendors, operators and suppliers) in the regional telecoms market.

The rankings methodology makes sophisticated use of more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points.

BMI Industry Forecast Scenario

Historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry indicators (see list below) supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast.

  • Fixed-Line Telephony - Telephone lines ('000); telephone lines/100 inhabitants.
  • Cellular Telephony - Mobile phone subscribers ('000); mobile phone subscribers/100 inhabitants; mobile phone subscribers/100 fixed line subscribers.
  • Internet Markets - Internet users ('000); internet users/100 inhabitants; broadband internet subscribers ('000); broadband internet subscribers/100 inhabitants.

Market Data Analysis

Detailed market analysis of the mobile, mobile content, fixed line and internet segments, broken down into:

  • Market Data - Analysis of market size, operator shares, dominant trends, competitive landscape and key quarterly data.
  • Technology/Service Rollout - Analysis of rollout/adoption of new technology, such as 3G, WiMAX, IPTV, pay-TV, LTE and value-added handset services (gaming, music, video, apps etc.).
  • Mobile Content - The latest trends in content and services available and being introduced by mobile operators. Including a timeline of all the latest major mobile content developments.
  • Company Database - A comprehensive breakdown of KPIs of the leading mobile operators, including subscriber figures by type (pre-paid and post-paid); 3G subscriber figures; net additions; market share; ARPU; churn rates; minutes of use; voice and non-voice revenue; financial figures (including operating revenues, net profits and EBITDA).

Regulatory Environment

Details of the regulatory bodies and their responsibilities, as well as a special focus on the rules surrounding competition and interconnection. The latest updates in the market's development and regulatory rulings.

Company Profiles

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses.

The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc