‘In contrast to previous years when most of the 'unknowns' were 'known' (potential US debt default, eurozone breakup, China hard landing), there are fewer clear-cut systematic risks that have a high likelihood of playing out over the coming year. Rising US yields, and the vulnerability to key emerging markets to this trend, are one such risk, but we believe that the global economy should remain relatively resilient in the face of a weaker bond market. There are near-term crisis risks in some emerging markets, where over-extended leverage, slowing growth and rising yields make for a dangerous combination, but EM in general is arguably better insulated now to crisis than in previous decades, and our focus is more on the long-term structural and institutional problems faced by policymakers rather than an economic collapse in 2014.’
Business Monitor International (BMI) has just published a brand new special report 'Developed States To Lead Global Recovery In 2014' laying out core macroeconomic and political views for 2014. BMI identifies the main drivers of global growth in 2014, and which regions pose the most significant risks to investors.
The overall global theme for 2014 is one of moderately diminished economic and political uncertainty, with leading indicators suggesting the global economic engine is set to have its major pistons firing simultaneously for the first time since 2010.
There are near-term crisis risks in some emerging market (EM) countries, but EM in general is arguably better insulated now to crisis than in previous decades, and our focus is more on the long-term structural and institutional problems faced by policymakers rather than an economic collapse in 2014. Overall, while the global outlook will always be subject to risks, we think that the world looks like a slightly less uncertain place as we head into 2014.
Key topics evaluated include:
- How sustainable is Asia's current economic upswing?
- Which Emerging European economies will benefit most from an improving Western European growth outlook?
- What is the outlook for the Middle East region three years after the Arab Spring?
- What are the five key themes to dominate Africa's economic and political landscape over the next 12 months?
- What is the 12-month outlook for the commodity complex, and which commodities are set to outperform?
- Where are key political pressure points in 2014?
The breadth of our country risk analysis, data and forecasts, combined with the integration between macro, political, financial market and sector themes and global, regional and country level developments makes this report an invaluable guide for all types of investors in 2014.