Business Monitor International


Denmark Oil & Gas Report

Published 28 May 2014

  • 115 pages
  • Instant access to your report online and PDF format through your account library
  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
 
$1,295.00
Denmark Oil & Gas Report

BMI View: Denmark is likely to remain an oil and gas net exporter over our forecast period, despite production decline. The government is confident the country will sustain its position as a net exporter of oil and gas until the end of the decade. We expect a partial recovery in oil and gas volumes over the medium term. However, we forecast th at overall production will decline in the long term and that exports will become increasingly thin by the end of our forecast period . Should production surprise to the downside, or consumption to the upside, the country could see itself becoming a net oil and/or gas importer by the end of our forecast period.

The main trends and developments in Denmark's oil and gas sector are:

  • We are forecasting oil reserves to slowly decline from current levels of 805mn barrels (bbl)of oil to approximately 645mn bbl by the end of our forecasting period in 2023. Gas reserves are expected to stagnate, remaining between 40-50bcm throughout our forecast period. There is upside risk to our reserves forecast from ongoing exploration and the 7th Licensing Round initiated in April 2014.

  • Denmark could also have sizeable shale gas resources. In December 2014, the US Geological Survey estimates that the Alum Shale in Denmark could contain about 193bcm of undiscovered, technically recoverable natural gas. This compares very favourably to Denmark's current gas reserves estimates of about 40bcm at the time of writing.We forecast that Denmark's oil production will continue its decline for the period 2013-2015. We anticipate Danish oil output to stabilise and even slightly increase from 2016 to 2018 to reach 190,880b/d in 2018 as a new field is brought online and as work is carried out to maintain production and increase output at mature fields. Past 2018 however, output will resume to the downside. We forecast Denmark's oil output to decline to about 167,530b/d by 2023.

  • Declining oil consumption should help protect Denmark's...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Industry Forecast
11
Table: Denmark Proven Oil & Gas Reserves And Total Petroleum Data - Historical Data And Forecasts, 2011-2016
11
Table: Denmark Proven Oil & Gas Reserves And Total Petroleum Data - Long-Term Forecasts, 2017-2022
12
Table: Denmark Oil Production, Consumption And Net Exports - Historical Data And Forecasts, 2011-2016
14
Table: Denmark Oil Production, Consumption And Net Exports - Long-Term Forecasts, 2017-2022
15
Table: Denmark Gas Production, Consumption And Net Exports - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2016
17
Table: Denmark Gas Production, Consumption And Net Exports - Long-Term Forecasts, 2017-2022
18
Table: Denmark Refining Production And Consumption - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2016
21
Table: Denmark Refining Production And Consumption - Long-Term Forecasts 2017-2022
21
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
23
Denmark O&G Risk Reward Ratings
23
Developed States - Risk/Reward Ratings
24
Table: Oil & Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Ratings
26
Looking Downstream
27
Table: Oil & Gas Downstream Risk/Reward Ratings
28
Upside Potential
29
Table: Developed States Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Ratings
30
Market Overview
31
Denmark Energy Market Overview
31
Table: Upstream Projects Database
33
Oil & Gas Infrastructure
33
Table: Table: Refineries In Denmark
33
Competitive Landscape
37
Table: Key Players - Danish Oil And Gas Sector
38
Table: Key Upstream Players
38
Table: Key Downstream Players
38
Company Profile
39
DONG Energy
39
Royal Dutch Shell
44
Other Companies - Summary
47
Regional Overview
51
Developed States Energy Market Overview
51
Global Industry Overview
58
Global Energy Market Overview
58
Table: BMI's Oil Price Forecasts & Bloomberg Analyst Consensus, Average Price (US$/bbl)
59
Table: Global Oil Demand Forecasts
65
Appendix
67
Developed Europe - Regional Appendix
67
Table: Oil Consumption - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017 ('000b/d)
67
Table: Oil Consumption - Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 ('000b/d)
67
Table: Oil Production - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017 ('000b/d)
68
Table: Oil Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 ('000b/d)
69
Table: Refinery Capacity - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017 ('000b/d)
69
Table: Refining Capacity - Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 ('000b/d)
70
Table: Gas Consumption - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017 (bcm)
70
Table: Gas Consumption - Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 (bcm)
71
Table: Gas Production - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017 (bcm)
71
Table: Gas Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 (bcm)
72
Table: LNG Gas Imports (Exports) - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017 (bcm)
73
Table: LNG Gas Imports (Exports) - Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 (bcm)
73
Glossary
74
Table: Glossary Of Terms
74
Methodology
76
Energy Industry
77
Cross checks
77
Sources
78

The Denmark Oil & Gas Report has been researched at source and features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s independent forecasts for Denmark including major indicators for oil, gas and LNG, covering all major indicators including reserves, production, consumption, refining capacity, prices, export volumes and values. The report includes full analysis of industry trends and prospects, national and multinational companies and changes in the regulatory environment.

BMI's Denmark Oil & Gas Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Danish oil and gas industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent oil and gas industry forecasts for Denmark to test consensus views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Danish oil and gas market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Danish oil and gas sector through reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Denmark.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and Competitive Landscape Tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI's key forecasts and industry analysis, covering oil and gas reserves, supply, demand and refining, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.

Regional Overview

Regional perspective on size and value of industry sector; comparative rankings by production, refining, imports and exports of oil, gas and LNG.

Business Environment Rankings

BMI's Oil and Gas Business Environment Rankings provide a country-comparative Risk-Reward Rankings index aimed at investors (independents, NOCs, IOCs and oil services companies) in the upstream and downstream markets.

The rankings methodology makes sophisticated use of more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points and is part of BMI's integrated Country Risk-Industry Rankings products.

Oil Market Outlook and Oil Products Outlook

Based on our country coverage of over 99% of global oil and gas production and consumption, BMI provides demand, supply and price forecasts to end-2018 for oil, gas and oil products

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:

Pricing: Oil price (US$/bbl, WTI, Brent, OPEC basket, Urals); Oil products prices (unleaded gasoline, gasoil/diesel, jet/kerosene - US$/bbl) at global hubs

Production, Consumption, Capacity and Reserves: Proven oil reserves (bn barrels), production, consumption, refinery capacity and throughputs (`000b/d); Proven gas reserves (tcm), production and consumption (bcm)

Imports and Exports: Oil exports/imports (`000b/d), value of oil exports/imports (US$mn - BMI base case); Value of oil exports at constant US$50/bbl and constant US$100/bbl (US$mn); Gas exports/imports (bcm), Value of gas exports/imports (US$mn); Value of gas exports/imports at constant US$50/bbl and US$100/bbl (US$mn); Value of petroleum exports/imports (US$mn); Value of petroleum exports/imports at constant US$50/bbl and US$100/bbl (US$mn)

BMI Macroeconomic Forecasts

BMI forecasts to end-2018 for all headline macroeconomic indicators, including real GDP growth, inflation, fiscal balance, trade balance, current account and external debt.

Competitive Landscape

Comparative company analyses by US$ sales, % share of total sales, number of employees, year established, ownership structure, oil production ('000b/d), gas production (bcm), downstream capacity ('000b/d) and % market share.

Company Profiles

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc