Business Monitor International


Denmark Oil & Gas Report

Published 03 December 2014

  • 123 pages
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$1,295.00
Denmark Oil & Gas Report

BMI View:   We expect a partial ,   but temporary recovery in oil and gas volumes over the medium term , as small developments come online . Past 2019 however, production will resume to the downside. While the country should remain a net oil and gas exporter, we highlight that exports will become increasingly thin by the end of our forecast period, notably for crude.

Headline Forecasts (Denmark 2012-2018)
  2012 2013 2014e 2015f 2016f 2017f 2018f
Crude, NGPL & other liquids prod, 000b/d 205.0 178.3 160.8 152.6 145.2 148.2 153.4
Refined products production & ethanol, 000b/d 149.1 143.3 141.2 139.1 137.0 134.9 133.6
Refined products consumption & ethanol, 000b/d 159.6 154.4 152.1 149.8 147.7 146.4 145.9
Dry natural gas production, bcm 5.6 4.9 4.6 4.6 4.6 4.8 4.9
Dry natural gas consumption, bcm 3.7 3.5 3.5 3.4 3.4 3.3 3.3
e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: EIA, BMI

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The main trends and developments in Denmark's oil and gas sector are:

  • Denmark's oil and gas reserves are set to continue on a decline. However, ongoing exploration and the potential for shale gas could yield upside risk to our forecast. A first shale gas exploration well set to be drilled by Total in 2014 will be an important step towards determining the country's shale gas potential.

  • Strong interest in Denmark's 7 th licensing round highlights the continued attractiveness and prospectivity of this mature producer, vis-a-vis its larger North Sea neighbours. Should exploration prove successful, this could help push back the date at which the country will become a net oil importer.

  • Oil and gas production should increase slightly between 2017-2019 and 2016-2018 respectively, as several small developments will help production recover. However, delays on the Hejre field has seen BMI push back the date for production...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Industry Forecast
11
Table: Denmark Proven Oil & Gas Reserves And Total Petroleum Data - Historical Data And Forecasts, 2011-2016
11
Table: Denmark Proven Oil & Gas Reserves And Total Petroleum Data - Long-Term Forecasts, 2017-2022
12
Table: Denmark Oil Production, Consumption And Net Exports - Historical Data And Forecasts, 2011-2016
14
Table: Denmark Oil Production, Consumption And Net Exports - Long-Term Forecasts, 2017-2022
15
Table: Denmark Gas Production, Consumption And Net Exports - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2016
17
Table: Denmark Gas Production, Consumption And Net Exports - Long-Term Forecasts, 2017-2022
18
Table: Denmark Refining Production And Consumption - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2016
21
Table: Denmark Refining Production And Consumption - Long-Term Forecasts 2017-2022
21
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
23
Denmark O&G Risk Reward Ratings
23
Developed States - Risk/Reward Ratings
24
Table: Oil & Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Ratings
26
Looking Downstream
27
Table: Oil & Gas Downstream Risk/Reward Ratings
28
Upside Potential
29
Table: Developed States Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Ratings
30
Market Overview
31
Denmark Energy Market Overview
31
Table: Upstream Projects Database
33
Oil & Gas Infrastructure
33
Table: Table: Refineries In Denmark
33
Competitive Landscape
37
Table: Key Players - Danish Oil And Gas Sector
38
Table: Key Upstream Players
38
Table: Key Downstream Players
38
Company Profile
39
DONG Energy
39
Royal Dutch Shell
44
Other Companies - Summary
47
Regional Overview
51
Developed States Energy Market Overview
51
Global Industry Overview
58
Global Energy Market Overview
58
Table: BMI's Oil Price Forecasts & Bloomberg Analyst Consensus, Average Price (US$/bbl)
59
Table: Global Oil Demand Forecasts
65
Appendix
67
Developed Europe - Regional Appendix
67
Table: Oil Consumption - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017 ('000b/d)
67
Table: Oil Consumption - Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 ('000b/d)
67
Table: Oil Production - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017 ('000b/d)
68
Table: Oil Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 ('000b/d)
69
Table: Refinery Capacity - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017 ('000b/d)
69
Table: Refining Capacity - Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 ('000b/d)
70
Table: Gas Consumption - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017 (bcm)
70
Table: Gas Consumption - Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 (bcm)
71
Table: Gas Production - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017 (bcm)
71
Table: Gas Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 (bcm)
72
Table: LNG Gas Imports (Exports) - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017 (bcm)
73
Table: LNG Gas Imports (Exports) - Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 (bcm)
73
Glossary
74
Table: Glossary Of Terms
74
Methodology
76
Energy Industry
77
Cross checks
77
Sources
78

The Denmark Oil & Gas Report has been researched at source and features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s independent forecasts for Denmark including major indicators for oil, gas and LNG, covering all major indicators including reserves, production, consumption, refining capacity, prices, export volumes and values. The report includes full analysis of industry trends and prospects, national and multinational companies and changes in the regulatory environment.

BMI's Denmark Oil & Gas Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Danish oil and gas industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent oil and gas industry forecasts for Denmark to test consensus views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Danish oil and gas market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Danish oil and gas sector through reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Denmark.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and Competitive Landscape Tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key forecasts and industry analysis, covering oil and gas reserves, supply, demand and refining, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the upstream and downstream sectors and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series and forecasts to end-2024 for all key industry indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast:

  • Pricing: Oil price (USD/bbl, WTI, Brent, OPEC basket, Urals); oil products prices (unleaded gasoline, gasoil/diesel, jet/kerosene – USD/bbl) at global hubs.
  • Production, Consumption, Capacity & Reserves: Proven oil reserves (bn barrels), production, consumption, refinery capacity and throughputs (‘000b/d); proven gas reserves (tcm), production and consumption (bcm) and fuels trade.
  • Imports & Exports: Crude oil exports/imports (‘000s b/d) and value of crude oil trade in USD. Fuels exports/imports (‘000s b/d) and value of fuels trade in USD. Natural gas imports/exports (bcm), by pipeline and/or LNG, and value of natural gas trade.

BMI’s Oil & Gas Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (independents, NOCs, IOCs, oil services companies) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of the upstream and downstream market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.

Market Overview

A profile of the upstream and downstream sectors, including analysis of reserves, output, consumption and trade of energy products; overview of the industry landscape and key players; assessment of the business operating environment and the latest regulatory developments.

Competitive landscape

Comparative company analyses by USD sales, % share of total sales, number of employees, year established, ownership structure, oil production (‘000b/d), gas production (bcm), downstream capacity (‘000b/d) and % market share.

Company Profiles*

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

Regional Overview

Regional perspective on size and value of the industry. Plus comparative rankings by production, refining, imports and exports of oil, gas and LNG.

Global Oil Market & Oil Products Outlook

Based on our country coverage of over 99% of global oil and gas production and consumption, BMI provides demand, supply and price forecasts to end-2024 for oil, gas and oil products.

Sources

The Oil & gas Reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc