Business Monitor International


Denmark Oil & Gas Report

Published 25 February 2014

  • 115 pages
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$1,295.00
Denmark Oil & Gas Report

BMI View: Denmark is likely to remain an oil and gas net exporter over our forecast period, despite production decline. The government is confident the country will sustain its position as a net exporter of oil and gas until the end of the decade. We expect a partial recovery in oil and gas volumes over the medium term. However, we forecast th at overall production will decline in the long term and that exports will become increasingly thin by the end of our forecast period despite a small drop in consumption.

The main trends and developments in Denmark's oil and gas sector are:

  • We are forecasting oil reserves to slowly decline from current levels of 805mn barrels (bbl) of oil to approximately 645mn bbl by the end of our forecasting period in 2023. There is upside risk to our reserves forecast from New World's Danica Jutland prospects and from Wintershall's Hibonite discovery. We expect gas reserves to stagnate throughout the forecast period. We estimate that gas reserves will be approximately 40bn cubic metres (bcm) in 2018, from their current level of 43bcm. However, upside risk exists: Denmark could have sizeable shale gas resources. In December 2014, the US Geological Survey estimates that the Alum Shale in Denmark could contain about 193bcm of undiscovered, technically recoverable natural gas. This compares very favourably to Denmark's current gas reserves estimates of about 40bcm at the time of writing.

  • We forecast that Denmark will most likely continue to be a net exporter of oil throughout our forecast period. In the short term, we expect Danish oil output to stabilise and perhaps to slightly increase from 2016 to 2018 to reach nearly 200,000 barrels per day (b/d). This will be thanks to new developments and work to increase output at mature fields. Past 2018, however, field depletion rates will most likely overtake the above-mentioned additional production, and we once again expect to see declining Danish oil production. We forecast...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Industry Forecast
11
Oil And Gas Reserves
11
Table: Denmark Proven Oil & Gas Reserves And Total Petroleum Data, 2012-2017
11
Table: Denmark Proven Oil & Gas Reserves And Total Petroleum Data - Long-Term Forecasts, 2018-2023
12
Oil Supply And Demand
15
Table: Denmark Oil Production And Net Exports, 2012-2017
16
Table: Denmark Oil Production And Net Exports, 2018-2023
17
Gas Supply And Demand
20
Table: Denmark Gas Production, Consumption And Net Exports, 2012-2017
20
Table: Denmark Gas Production, Consumption And Net Exports, 2018-2023
22
LNG
24
Refining And Oil Products Trade
25
Table: Denmark Refining Production And Consumption, 2012-2017
25
Table: Denmark Refining Production And Consumption, 2018-2023
25
Revenues/Import Costs
26
Key Risks To BMI's Forecast Scenario
27
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
28
Denmark - O&G Risk Reward Ratings
28
Denmark Upstream Rating - Overview
28
Denmark Upstream Rating - Rewards
28
Denmark Upstream Rating - Risks
28
Denmark Downstream Rating - Overview
28
Denmark Downstream Rating - Rewards
29
Denmark Downstream Rating - Risks
29
North America And Western Europe - Risk/Reward Ratings
29
Table: Oil & Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Ratings
30
Western Europe Languishes Without Shale Outlook
32
Downstream: US Comes Out Tops
34
Table: Oil & Gas Downstream Risk/Reward Ratings
34
Table: North America & Western Europe States Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Ratings
41
Market Overview
42
Denmark Energy Market Overview
42
Table: Upstream Projects Database
44
Overview/State Role
44
Regulation
44
Licensing
45
Government Policy
46
Licensing Rounds
46
International Energy Relations
47
Oil & Gas Infrastructure
48
Oil Refineries
48
Table: Refineries In Denmark
48
Service Stations
49
Oil Storage Facilities
49
Oil Pipelines/Terminals
49
LNG Terminals
50
Gas Storage Facilities
50
Gas Pipelines
50
Competitive Landscape
52
Competitive Landscape Summary
52
Table: Key Players - Danish Oil And Gas Sector
53
Table: Key Upstream Players
53
Table: Key Downstream Players
53
Company Profile
54
DONG Energy
54
Royal Dutch Shell
61
Other Summaries
64
Regional Overview
70
North America & Western Europe Overview
70
North America
71
Table: Canadian LNG Export Terminal Project Applications
76
Europe
77
Muted Consumption Growth
82
The Difficulty In Moving Exports Along
84
Refining Capacity: A Tale Of Two Continents
85
Global Industry Overview
87
Appendix
94
Developed Europe - Regional Appendix
94
Table: Oil Consumption - Historical Data And Forecasts, 2011-2018 ('000b/d)
94
Table: Oil Consumption - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2022 ('000b/d)
95
Table: Oil Production - Historical Data And Forecasts, 2011-2018 ('000b/d)
95
Table: Oil Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2022 ('000b/d)
96
Table: Refinery Capacity - Historical Data And Forecasts, 2011-2018 ('000b/d)
96
Table: Refining Capacity - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2022 ('000b/d)
97
Table: Gas Consumption - Historical Data And Forecasts, 2011-2018 (bcm)
97
Table: Gas Consumption - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2022 (bcm)
98
Table: Gas Production - Historical Data And Forecasts, 2011-2018 (bcm)
98
Table: Gas Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2022 (bcm)
99
Table: LNG Gas Imports (Exports) - Historical Data And Forecasts, 2011-2018 (bcm)
99
Table: LNG Gas Imports (Exports) - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2022 (bcm)
100
Denmark - Products Breakdown, 10-year Forecasts
100
Table: Denmark Refined Petroleum Products, Production Breakdown, 2018-2013
101
Table: Denmark Refined Petroleum Products, Consumption Breakdown, 2012-2017
102
Table: Denmark Refined Petroleum Products, Consumption Breakdown, 2018-2023
103
Table: Denmark Refined Petroleum Products, Net Exports Breakdown, 2012-2017
105
Table: Denmark Refined Petroleum Products, Net Exports Breakdown, 2018-2023
105
Glossary
107
Table: Glossary Of Terms
107
Methodology
109
Industry Forecast Methodology
109
Source
111
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
111
Table: Bmi's Oil & Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Ratings
113
Table: Weighting
115

The Denmark Oil & Gas Report has been researched at source and features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s independent forecasts for Denmark including major indicators for oil, gas and LNG, covering all major indicators including reserves, production, consumption, refining capacity, prices, export volumes and values. The report includes full analysis of industry trends and prospects, national and multinational companies and changes in the regulatory environment.

BMI's Denmark Oil & Gas Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Danish oil and gas industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent oil and gas industry forecasts for Denmark to test consensus views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Danish oil and gas market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Danish oil and gas sector through reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Denmark.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and Competitive Landscape Tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI's key forecasts and industry analysis, covering oil and gas reserves, supply, demand and refining, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.

Regional Overview

Regional perspective on size and value of industry sector; comparative rankings by production, refining, imports and exports of oil, gas and LNG.

Business Environment Ratings

BMI's Oil and Gas Business Environment Ratings provide a country-comparative Risk-Reward Ratings index aimed at investors (independents, NOCs, IOCs and oil services companies) in the upstream and downstream markets.

The ratings methodology makes sophisticated use of more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points and is part of BMI's integrated Country Risk-Industry Ratings products.

Oil Market Outlook and Oil Products Outlook

Based on our country coverage of over 99% of global oil and gas production and consumption, BMI provides demand, supply and price forecasts to end-2018 for oil, gas and oil products

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:

Pricing: Oil price (US$/bbl, WTI, Brent, OPEC basket, Urals); Oil products prices (unleaded gasoline, gasoil/diesel, jet/kerosene - US$/bbl) at global hubs

Production, Consumption, Capacity and Reserves: Proven oil reserves (bn barrels), production, consumption, refinery capacity and throughputs (`000b/d); Proven gas reserves (tcm), production and consumption (bcm)

Imports and Exports: Oil exports/imports (`000b/d), value of oil exports/imports (US$mn - BMI base case); Value of oil exports at constant US$50/bbl and constant US$100/bbl (US$mn); Gas exports/imports (bcm), Value of gas exports/imports (US$mn); Value of gas exports/imports at constant US$50/bbl and US$100/bbl (US$mn); Value of petroleum exports/imports (US$mn); Value of petroleum exports/imports at constant US$50/bbl and US$100/bbl (US$mn)

BMI Macroeconomic Forecasts

BMI forecasts to end-2018 for all headline macroeconomic indicators, including real GDP growth, inflation, fiscal balance, trade balance, current account and external debt.

Competitive Landscape

Comparative company analyses by US$ sales, % share of total sales, number of employees, year established, ownership structure, oil production ('000b/d), gas production (bcm), downstream capacity ('000b/d) and % market share.

Company Profiles

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc