Business Monitor International


Denmark Business Forecast Report

Published 28 May 2014

  • 29 pages
  • Instant access to your report online and PDF format through your account library
  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
 
$1,195.00
Denmark Business Forecast Report

Core Views

  • Although Denmark is not part of the eurozone monetary union, its deep financial and trade links have been strengthened by its pegged exchange rate regime, leaving the economy significantly exposed to spill over effects of the eurozone debt crisis.

  • A burst housing bubble and subsequent bank failures have made Denmark a Nordic underperformer, and the after-effects will continue to weigh on growth in the medium term. Although Denmark is in the process of staging a broad based economic recovery, the outlook remains dependent on improving external demand and a sustained recovery in house prices.

  • Denmark has been singled out as a relative safe haven given its favourable public debt dynamics and fixed currency regime. However, this inflow of capital has masked structural economic problems, and should investors start leaving the country it could expose an array of problems, most problematic of which could be a rise in interest rates and drop in house prices.

  • The government of Denmark has repeatedly expressed its commitment to its pegged currency regime, confirming our view that the country will not join the eurozone in the next decade.

  • The public sector will remain one of the largest in Europe for the foreseeable future, as Denmark's deeply ingrained welfare model remains broadly popular. However, gradual reforms are likely to continue in the coming years that scale back benefit programs.

  • Although we expect public expenditure to remain elevated, the government's substantial tax revenues will enable it to keep deficit and debt levels on a sustainable trajectory.

Major Forecast Changes

  • No Major Forecast Changes

Risks To Outlook

  • A major risk to Denmark's medium-term macroeconomic trajectory stems from ongoing economic and financial developments within the eurozone. Denmark has sizeable trade and investment linkages with the common currency bloc, and a major deterioration in growth in the core countries, or renewed flare up of the sovereign...

Table of Contents

Executive Summary
5
Core Views
5
Major Forecast Changes
5
Key Risks To Outlook
5
Chapter 1: Political Outlook
7
SWOT Analysis
7
BMI Political Risk Ratings
7
Domestic Politics
8
Welfare Reform To Remain High On Agenda
8
table: POLITICAL OVERVIEW
8
table: Government Of Denmark Budget Projections
9
Chapter 2: Economic Outlook
11
SWOT Analysis
11
BMI Economic Risk Ratings
11
Economic Activity
12
Growth To Peak In 2015
12
table: Economic Activity
12
Chapter 3: Business Environment
15
SWOT Analysis
15
BMI Business Environment Risk Ratings
15
Chapter 4: Key Sectors
17
Oil & Gas
17
table: Oil Production And Net Exports, 2012-2017
18
table: Oil Production And Net Exports, 2018-2023
19
table: Gas Production, Consumption And Net Exports, 2012-2017
20
TABLE: Gas Production, Consumption And Net Exports, 2018-2023
21
Other Key Sectors
25
TABLE: Phar ma Sect or Key Indicat ors
25
TABLE: Telecoms Sector Key Indicators
25
TABLE: Infrastructure Sector Key Indicators
25
TABLE: Food and Drink Sector Key Indicators
26
TABLE: Autos Sector Key Indicators
26
Chapter 5: BMI Global Assumptions
27
Global Outlook
27
Growth Increasingly Polarised
27
Table: Global Assumptions
27
Table : Devel oped States , Real GDP Growt H, %
28
Table : BMI VERSUS BLOOM BERG CON SENSUS REAL GDP GROWTH FORECASTS, %
28
Table : Emergi ng Markets , Real GDP Growth , %
29

The Denmark Business Forecast Report helps businesses with market assessment, strategic planning and decision making to promote growth and profitability in Denmark and is an essential tool for CEOs, Chairmen, Finance Directors/CFOs, Managing Directors, Marketing/Sales Directors with commercial interests in this emerging market.

An influential new analysis of Denmark's economic, political and financial prospects through end-2017, just published by award-winning forecasters, Business Monitor International (BMI).

Key Uses

  • Forecast the pace and stability of Denmark's economic and industry growth through end-2017.
  • Identify and evaluate adverse political and economic trends, to facilitate risk mitigation.
  • Assess the critical shortcomings of the business environment that pose hidden barriers and costs to corporate profitability.
  • Contextualise Denmark's country risks against regional peers using BMI's country comparative Risk Rankings system.
  • Evaluate external threats to doing business in Denmark, including currency volatility, the commodity price boom and protectionist policies.

The Denmark Business Forecast Report by Business Monitor International (BMI) includes four major sections: Economic Outlook, Political Outlook, Business Environment and Key Sector Outlook.

Economic Outlook:

How will the Denmark economic policy-making and performance impact on corporate profitability over 2013-2017?

BMI provides our fully independent 5-year forecasts for Denmark through end-2017 for more than 50 economic and key industry indicators. We evaluate growth, and also forecast the impact of economic management.

Economic Outlook Contents

The Denmark Business Forecast Report features BMI's forecasts with supporting analysis for 2013 through to end-2017, set against government views and BMI's evaluation of global and regional prospects.

Key Areas Covered:

Data:

  • Full 10-year forecasts with data - for key macroeconomic variables including GDP (real growth and per capita), population, inflation, current account balance and the exchange rate.
  • BMI's comprehensive Risk Rankings system - rates each country worldwide for economic and political risk, and rates the business environment, within a global and regional context.

Written Analysis:

  • Economic Activity - real GDP growth, employment, inflation, consumption (retail sales and confidence).
  • Balance of Payments - trade and investment, current and capital account.
  • Monetary Policy - interest rate trends (bank lending and deposit rates) and inflation (producer price and consumer price).
  • Exchange Rate Policy - currency controls, foreign investment flows, exchange rates and foreign exchange reserves.
  • Fiscal Policy - macroeconomic strategy and policies, government finance and tax reforms.
  • Foreign Direct Investment - approvals, inflows and climate.
  • External Debt - debt profile (short and long-term plus public and private sector exposure).
  • Global Assumptions - forecasts for each year to end-2017 covering: major commodities, growth in key regions, inflation, and interest and exchange rates, in the United States, Japan, China and the eurozone.

Key Benefits

  • Rely upon BMI's 100% independent forecast scenarios for Denmark and underlying assumptions - we take no advertising and are privately-owned.
  • Exploit the benefits of BMI's comprehensive and reliable macroeconomic database on Denmark, sourced and fully maintained by BMI from an extensive network of private sector, government and multilateral contacts.
  • Gain key insights into the current and future direction of government economic policy, which could significantly affect your company's business prospects, from BMI's team of analysts and economists.

Political Outlook:

What are the political risks to doing business in Denmark over the next 5-years?

BMI's Denmark country Risk Rankings evaluate the short- and medium-term threats to political stability.

Political Outlook Contents

  • SWOT Analysis for the Denmark Market - Political Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats facing Denmark.
  • Political Stability and Risk Assessment - BMI's Risk Rankings assess explicit short- and long-term risks to political stability; latest ankings, rankings and trends for Denmark's risk are compared with regional and global averages.
  • Current Administration and Policy-making BMI assesses the threats to the continuity of economic policy, and likely changes to the business operating environment.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark Denmark's risk profile against its neighbours, the global and regional average, allowing easy comparison of risks between key business markets.
  • Identify, evaluate and anticipate political and security risks to the business environment, and to your company's current operations and future plans.
  • Gain valuable insights into government and policy-making, through BMI's specialist team of analysts and economists, and their network of private and public sector sources.

Business Environment

Business Environment Risk Rankings with SWOT Analysis - Business Environment Risk Rankings for Denmark, benchmarked against rankings for regional neighbours.

Country Competitiveness - Competitiveness of Denmark's business operating environment in supporting corporate growth and profitability, compared with regional neighbours.

Business Environment Contents

  • Domestic Environment - Transparency, cronyism and corruption; labour market flexibility; corporate tax burden; interest rate levels; sophistication of banking sector and stock market; levels of business confidence; infrastructure and IT.
  • Foreign Direct Investment - Analysis of foreign investment regime; foreign ownership laws; attractiveness of business environment to foreign investors.
  • Foreign Trade - Analysis of trading environment, government trade policy, liberalisation measures, tariffs and membership of trade areas.

Key Benefits

  • Assess your company's evolving exposure to country specific operational and business risks, using BMI's in-depth analysis of the legal and regulatory business environment.
  • Understand your market's comparative strengths and weaknesses in the key areas of commercial infrastructure and business institutions, using BMI's proprietary global Business Environment Risk Rankings.

Key Sector Outlook

Which industry sectors in Denmark will grow fastest, and where are the major investment opportunities in the market?

BMI's identifies investment opportunities in Denmark's high growth industries including automotives, defence & security, food & drink, freight transport, infrastructure, oil & gas, pharmaceuticals & healthcare and telecommunications & IT.

Key Areas Covered:

  • Market Overview - Size and value of each industry with developments over 2008-2012, covering major industry key performance indicators (KPIs) that have impacted company performance.
  • 5-year Industry Forecasts - Forecasts for each year over 2013-2017, using BMI's proprietary industry modeling technique, which incorporates all key domestic and international indicators - including economic growth, interest rates, exchange rate outlook, commodity prices and demographic trends - to provide fully integrated forecasts across, and within, each industry.
  • Demand- and Supply-Side Data/Forecasts - BMI's industry data covers both the output of each industry and the domestic demand, offering clear analysis of anticipated import/export trends, as well as capacity growth within each industry.

Key Benefits

  • Target strategic opportunities in high growth industries, which are benefiting from global mega trends, and thus offer strong investment and growth opportunities.
  • Compare the growth path of different industries to identify which are best placed to benefit from domestic and international economic prospects, and which have historically suffered from volatile growth trends - a key indicator of future risks.

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Testimonials

The sections that I find most interesting and useful are the macroeconomic data and forecasts for the country, top export destinations and economic activity. The indicators/analysis of these areas helps us orient our thinking, our assumptions and, consequently, our decisions in the commercial area.

Country Manager, DHL Express