Business Monitor International


Denmark Autos Report

Published 21 August 2014

  • 56 pages
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$1,295.00
Denmark Autos Report

New vehicle sales have got off to a strong start across the first half of 2014, rising by 8.3% year-on-year, to reach 114,037 units, according to figures from the Danish Car Importers Association - De Danske Bilimportører (DBI). For the full year, BMI believes that this strong growth can be maintained, targeting an increase of 10%. Breaking down the headline figure, passenger car sales stood at 98,800 units, or 86.6% of total sales over H114, with commercial vehicles and buses making up the remaining 15,237 units (13.4% of total).

Our optimistic view on the Danish new car sales market is driven by a variety of factors. First, BMI's Country Risk team is expecting real GDP growth to accelerate to 1.3% and 1.6% in 2014 and 2015 respectively, up from just 0.4% in 2013, on the back of a broad based improvement in domestic and external demand.

Encouragingly for the near-term outlook for domestic auto sales, we believe that the outlook for private consumption - a key indicator of the potential demand for new cars - is also positive. Consumer confidence is currently standing at multi-year highs, bolstered by the continued gradual recovery in house prices following the 2008 crash and an increase in overall employment levels. This has led to rising retail sales. We are forecasting private consumption growth of 0.8% and 1.5% in 2014 and 2015 respectively.

Moreover, against a backdrop of subdued inflation (the Danmarks Nationalbank is forecasting annual Harmonised Indices of Consumer Prices inflation of just 0.6% in 2014, rising to 1.6% in 2015), interest rates should remain at very low levels (current lending rate is 0.2% and deposit rate is 0.05% as of June 2014), which should in turn lead to lower car financing rates and act as a support to Danish new vehicle demand over the near term.

One major challenge to new car ownership in Denmark remains the very high rate of tax levied on new car purchases. There is an effective 180% tax on all new car purchases (made up of...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
10
Political
11
Economic
12
Business Environment
13
Industry Forecast
14
Production, Sales And Trade
14
Table: Autos Total Market - Historical Data And Forecasts (Denmark 2012-2018)
14
Sales
14
Production
15
Motorcycles
16
Table: Motorcycle Market - Historical Data And Forecasts (Denmark 2012-2018)
16
Passenger Vehicles
17
Table: Passenger Car Market - Historical Data And Forecasts (Denmark 2012-2018)
17
Table: Denmark - Top 10 Brands, H114
18
Electric Vehicles
18
Commercial Vehicles
20
Table: Commercial Vehicle Market - Historical Data And Forecasts (Denmark 2012-2018)
20
Suppliers
22
Macroeconomic Forecasts
23
Table: Economic Activity (Denmark 2009-2018)
29
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
30
Europe - Risk/Reward Ratings
30
Table: Europe Autos Risk/Reward Ratings
33
Company Profile
35
Company Monitor
35
Interdan Holding
38
Semler Group
40
Regional Overview
42
Europe Overview
42
Global Industry Overview
44
Global Overview
44
Table: Passenger Car Sales May 2014 (CBUs)
44
Outperformers Boost European Outlook
44
Trucks Give North America A Lift
45
India Brings Relief To BRICs
47
Demographic Forecast
49
Demographic Outlook
49
Table: Denmark's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
50
Table: Denmark's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
51
Table: Denmark's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
52
Table: Denmark's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
52
Methodology
53
Industry Forecasts
53
Sector-Specific Methodology
54
Sources
54
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
55
Table: Automotive Risk/Reward Ratings Indicators And Weighting Of Indicators
56

The Denmark Autos Report features the latest data and forecasts covering production, sales, imports and exports.

Business Monitor International (BMI)'s Denmark Autos Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, auto associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the automotives market in Denmark.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent automotives industry forecasts on Denmark to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the Danish automotives market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Danish automotives sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Denmark.
  • Assess the activities and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Competitive Landscape Analysis.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts and views, covering production, sales and the introduction of new technology or products.

Global, Regional and Country Industry Overviews

In-depth analysis of the major global and regional developments in the market, which can be linked with the country industry overview, providing cross-country investment, product and financing trends that will affect each market, supported by BMI’s global and regional industry forecasts.

Business Environment Rankings

BMI's proprietary Autos Business Environment Rankings are a unique country-comparative Risk-Reward Rankings index that separately analyses the risks and rewards of operating in each market. It is aimed at investors (including manufacturers, suppliers and dealers) who seek to either identify and compare market opportunities, or evaluate country-specific operational challenges.

The rankings methodology makes sophisticated use of over 40 industries, economic and demographic data points.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:

Total production value (US$bn); total production of units; production by vehicle-type (including cars, commercial vehicles, trucks and buses); total sales value (US$bn); sales by vehicle-type, including passenger cars and commercial vehicles (vans and microbuses, pickups, trucks and buses, 4 wheel drive); total exports by value (US$bn) and by units; total imports by value (US$bn) and by units; contribution to GDP; employment in industry.

BMI Economic Forecasts

BMI forecasts to end-2018 for all headline macroeconomic indicators, including real GDP growth, inflation, fiscal balance, trade balance, current account and external debt.

Company Profiles

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc