New vehicle sales remained resilient over the first nine months of 2014, according to figures from the Danish Car Importers Association - De Danske Bilimportører (DBI). Passenger car sales were up by 5.1% over 9M13, at 142,105 units. Heavy commercial vehicle (HCV) sales were also up by 1.7%, at 2,592 units. However, it was light commercial vehicle (LCV) sales which showed the strongest growth over the Jan-Sep period, increasing by 15.8%, to 19.967 units. When added together, this makes for total vehicle sales of 164,664 units for 9M14. On current trends, this would imply some slight downside to our current forecast of 223,200 units sold for the full year.
However, we retain a generally optimistic view on the medium-term outlook for Danish new car sales. Our positivity is based on a number of factors. In August 2014, BMI's Country Risk team revised up our 2014 real GDP growth forecast slightly, to 1.4%, with 1.6% GDP growth anticipated in 2015. Indeed, real GDP grew by 1.5% year-on-year (y-o-y) in Q114, the fastest rate since Q211, driven by a broad based expansion of exports, fixed investment and private consumption.
Encouragingly for the near-term outlook for domestic auto sales, we believe that the outlook for private consumption - a key indicator of the potential demand for new cars - is also positive. We feel that private consumption will be bolstered in the coming quarters by a surge in consumer confidence, which in July 2014 reached levels last seen during the height of Denmark's housing and consumption boom. Moreover, against a backdrop of subdued inflation (the Danmarks Nationalbank is forecasting annual Harmonised Indices of consumer price inflation of just 0.6% in 2014, rising to 1.6% in 2015), interest rates should remain at very low levels (current lending rate is 0.2% and deposit rate is 0.05% as of June 2014), which should in turn lead to lower car financing rates and act as a support to Danish new vehicle demand over the near term.
The Denmark Autos Report features the latest data and forecasts covering production, sales, imports and exports.
Business Monitor International (BMI)'s Denmark Autos Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, auto associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the automotives market in Denmark.
- Benchmark BMI's independent automotives industry forecasts on Denmark to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the Danish automotives market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in the Danish automotives sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Denmark.
- Assess the activities and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Competitive Landscape Analysis.
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts and views, covering production, sales and the introduction of new technology or products.
Global, Regional and Country Industry Overviews
In-depth analysis of the major global and regional developments in the market, which can be linked with the country industry overview, providing cross-country investment, product and financing trends that will affect each market, supported by BMI’s global and regional industry forecasts.
Business Environment Rankings
BMI's proprietary Autos Business Environment Rankings are a unique country-comparative Risk-Reward Rankings index that separately analyses the risks and rewards of operating in each market. It is aimed at investors (including manufacturers, suppliers and dealers) who seek to either identify and compare market opportunities, or evaluate country-specific operational challenges.
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BMI Industry Forecasts
Historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:
Total production value (US$bn); total production of units; production by vehicle-type (including cars, commercial vehicles, trucks and buses); total sales value (US$bn); sales by vehicle-type, including passenger cars and commercial vehicles (vans and microbuses, pickups, trucks and buses, 4 wheel drive); total exports by value (US$bn) and by units; total imports by value (US$bn) and by units; contribution to GDP; employment in industry.
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Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.