Business Monitor International


Czech Republic Retail Report

Published 12 February 2014

  • 66 pages
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$1,295.00
Czech Republic Retail Report

BMI View: We predict strong growth potential in the Czech retail sector over the next 5 years. We predict the recent economic struggles will continue to subdue retail spending during 2014, however this will turn around and by 2015 we see a return to growth. The strongest areas of spend are in the non-essential purchases, primarily communications, leisure and household goods. .

The Czech Republic is the second largest economy in Central Europe after Poland. Over the past few years the Czech Republic retail sector has entered a state of decline, with total spend in the sector dropping from US$113bn in 2011 to a forecasted US$94bn in 2014. 2014 is predicted to be the turnaround point and we forecast growth will return in 2015. This growth is predicted to increase over the next four years and total spend for 2018 is forecasted to reach US$131bn.

The Czech consumer continues to face considerable challenges as the economy struggles to generate positive growth and ward off persistent economic contraction. We see a further drop in household income from US$20,004 in 2013 to US$19,761 in 2014. This decline has had ramifications on the food and drink sector which declined 1.8% from 2013. Despite these declines we are positive about the market in the near future. We predict a return to growth in 2015 and forecast an increase in net household income to US$23,916 by 2018. This will have positive ramifications in the retail sector and we predict that starting in 2015 there will be an average rate of yearly growth of 6.7%.

The Czech R epublic is one of the strongest and most stable markets in the region and there is a high concentration of modern retail outlets and foreign operators.

Recent Developments:

  • 2014 will be a turnaround year for the Czech retail sector. Total spend in the sector continues to decline; however, decline is slowing. We forecast a 1.07% y-o-y decline from 2013 and a return to growth in 2015 with the total retail spend growing by 7.42%.

  • We forecast...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Political
11
Economic
12
Business Environment
13
Industry Forecast
14
Headline Retail Forecast
14
Table: Total Household Spending, 2011-2018
16
Table: Retail Sector Spending %, 2011-2018
17
Table: Retail Sector Spending as a % of GDP, 2011-2018
19
Table: Headline Retail Sector Spending, 2011-2018
20
Retail Sector Forecast
21
Food Drink & Tobacco
22
Table: Food, Drink & Tobacco Spending, 2011-2018
23
Clothing & Footwear
23
Table: Clothing & Footwear Spending, 2011-2018
24
Household Goods
25
Table: Household Goods Spending, 2011-2018
26
Personal Care
27
Table: Personal Care Spending, 2011-2018
28
Household Numbers and Income Forecast
28
Table: Household Data, 2011-2018
29
Table: Labour Market Data, 2011-2018
30
Retail Demographic Forecast
31
Table: Total Population, 2011-2018
32
Table: Population: Babies, 2011-2018
33
Table: Population: Young Children, 2011-2018
33
Table: Population: Children, 2011-2018
34
Table: Population: Young Teens and Older Children, 2011-2018
34
Table: Population: Young People, 2011-2018
35
Table: Population: Older Teenagers, 2011-2018
35
Table: Population: 21yrs +, 2011-2018
36
Table: Population: Young Adults, 2011-2018
36
Table: Population: Middle Aged, 2011-2018
37
Table: Population: Urban, 2011-2018
37
Macroeconomic Forecasts
38
Macroeconomic Forecast
38
Table: Czech Republic - Economic Activity
43
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
44
Central And Eastern Europe Risk/Reward Ratings
44
Table: Europe Risk Reward Ratings
44
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
45
Rewards
45
Risks
45
Market Overview
46
Store Formats
47
Retail Subsectors
47
Tourism
49
Competitive Landscape
50
MGR
50
Home Improvement
51
Consumer Electronics
52
Pharmacies
52
Glossary
53
Methodology
60
Industry Forecast Methodology
60
Sources
63
Risk/Reward Rating Methodology
63
Table: Retail Risk/Reward Ratings Indicators
65
Table: Weighting Of Indicators
66

The Czech Republic Retail Report has been researched at source and features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s independent assessment and forecasts for the retail sector. The report examines key drivers of retail sales growth and future prospects, including consumer spending and private sector investment.

BMI's Czech Republic Retail Report also examines the level of development and potential for growth of the retail sector, the commercial initiatives of major players, changing consumer demographics that influence demand and the regulatory environment. Key sub-sectors include mass grocery retail, autos, over-the-counter pharmaceuticals, computers and consumer electronics.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent retail industry forecasts for Czech Republic to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Czech retail market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in Czech Republic through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key forecasts and industry analysis, plus a discussion of major industry developments and a snapshot of key short-term demand-driving macroeconomic movements.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the retail sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI Industry Forecasts

There are four separate 5-year forecast modules in the retail reports. These are:

Headline Retail Forecast: Total Household Spending, (US$bn and local currency, % growth, % GDP, per capita, per household); Spending by Retail Sector for: food and non-alcoholic drink, alcoholic drink, clothing and footwear, housing and utilities, furnishings and home, health, transport, recreation, education, transport, restaurants and hotels, personal care and insurance (US$bn and local currency, % growth, % GDP, % of total spending)

Retail Sector Forecast: Breakdown of Food, Non Alcoholic Drink, Alcohol, Tobacco, Clothing, Footwear, Household Goods, Furnishings, Appliances, Glass and Tableware, Household Textiles, Consumer Electronics, Garden Toys and Pets, Home and Garden tools, Personal Care, Personal Effects Spending (US$bn, % Growth);

Household Income and Numbers Forecast: Number of Households (‘000,% growth); gross income per household and per capita; net income per household and per capita; tax and social contributions per capita; breakdown of household incomes – US$5000+, US$10,000+ US$50000+ (‘000, % of total); labour force, employment and unemployment (‘000, % change)

Demographic Forecast: Total population; Babies 0-12 months; Young Children 0-4yrs; Children 5-9yrs; Young Teens and Older Children 10-14yrs; Older Teens 15-19yrs; Adults 21yrs +; Young Adults 21-29yrs; Middle Aged 40-64yrs (‘000, % growth, male, female); Urban Population (‘000, % population); Rural Population (‘000, % population).

Industry Risk Reward Ratings

BMI’s Retail Industry Risk Reward Ratings provide a country-comparative Risk Reward Ratings index aimed at investors in the regional retail market.

The ratings methodology makes sophisticated use of over 40 industry, economic and demographic data points.

Market Overview

Provides a detailed country-specific analysis of the key trends and developments in the retail sector as a whole, as well as an assessment of the main drivers affecting the major retail segments including mass grocery retail, fashion, pharmacies, consumer electronics, home improvement and personal care.

The market overview also considers the most effective store formats in a given country and the impact of these factors on the main international and domestic players’ development strategies.

Competitive Landscape

This provides a brief overview of the key players in each subsection of the retail sector including MGR, Fashion, Home Improvement, Consumer Electronics, Pharmacies, and Department Store chains.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc