Business Monitor International


Czech Republic Oil & Gas Report

Published 26 February 2014

  • 100 pages
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$1,295.00
Czech Republic Oil & Gas Report

BMI View: With a moratorium on shale gas exploration, the Czech Republic will remain highly dependent on imported fuel, as conventional hydrocarbons potential is limited. Demand trends are not strong, but refinery disruptions and the closure of the Pardubice refinery show that the domestic fuels market is in a precarious state of balance. This, in turn, has prompted the government to investigate ownership options for the national refining segment, with Shell having sold its 16.33% stake in Ceska Rafinerska to Unipetrol in January 2014.

The main trends and developments we highlight for the Czech Republic's oil and gas sector are:

  • Plans to freeze shale gas exploration for two years to allow the government to draft and implement new legislation have found plenty of support, meaning that drilling activity is unlikely until post-2014. In May 2013, Czech Prime Minister Petr Ne?as reiterated that shale mining was not on the agenda and that the moratorium on shale gas exploration would be maintained, stressing that the adoption of relevant legislation would be a precondition of shale gas prospecting and mining. Before the shale gas moratorium was put in place, several domestic and foreign companies had applied for shale gas exploration permits, including Cuadrilla Resources and Basgas Energia Czech, according to the Czech Ministry of Environment.

  • Natural gas production is negligible, standing at a mere estimated 0.2bcm production level in 2013. We do not expect to see domestic gas production rise above 0.2bcm over the medium term. We rather expect a decline in production to an estimated 0.14bcm in 2023.

  • Consumption of natural gas fell during 2012, dampened by a decline in manufacturing and warm weather. With increasing use of gas in the residential/commercial sector, and with a possible replacement of declining nuclear power generation by gas-fired power plants over the long term. We therefore expect a slow ramp up in gas consumption, which will accelerate...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Industry Forecast
10
Oil And Gas Reserves
10
Table: Czech Republic Proven Oil & Gas Reserves And Total Petroleum Data, 2012-2017
10
Table: Czech Republic Proven Oil & Gas Reserves And Total Petroleum Data, 2018-2023
11
Oil Supply And Demand
14
Table: Czech Republic Oil Production, Consumption And Net Exports, 2012-2017
14
Table: Czech Republic Oil Production, Consumption And Net Exports, 2018-2023
15
Gas Supply And Demand
17
Table: Czech Republic Gas Production, Consumption And Net Exports, 2012-2017
17
Table: Czech Republic Gas Production, Consumption And Net Exports, 2018-2023
18
Refining And Oil Products Trade
21
Table: Czech Republic Refining - Production And Consumption, 2012-2017
21
Table: Czech Republic Refining - Production And Consumption, 2018-2023
21
Revenues/Import Costs
22
Risks To Outlook
23
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
24
Czech Republic - Risk/Reward Ratings
24
Central And Eastern Europe - Risk/Reward Ratings
26
Table: Central And Eastern Europe Risk/Reward Ratings
27
East Caspian Retains Upstream Ratings Lead
27
Russia: Large Resource Base But Limited Opportunities
29
Regional Minnows Breaking In
31
Table: CEE Upstream Risk/Reward Rating
32
Little Change In Downstream Rankings
32
Table: CEE Downstream Risk/Reward Ratings
35
Market Overview
36
Czech Republic Energy Market Overview
36
Overview/State Role
38
Licensing And Regulation
39
Government Policy
39
International Energy Relations
40
Oil & Gas Infrastructure
41
Oil Refineries
41
Table: Refineries In Czech Republic
42
Service Stations
42
Oil Storage Facilities
42
Oil Pipelines
43
Gas Storage Facilities
44
Gas Pipelines
44
Competitive Landscape
46
Competitive Landscape Summary
46
Table: Key Players - Czech Oil And Gas Sector
47
Table: Key Upstream Player
47
Table: Key Downstream Players
48
Company Profile
49
Unipetrol
49
Shell Czech Republic
54
Other Summaries
56
Regional Overview
59
Central And Eastern Europe Overview
59
A Mutually Dependent Relationship
61
Weaning Off Russian Oil And Gas Proving Difficult
62
Azerbaijan Main Beneficiary Of Eastern Europe's Russian Fatigue
63
Moving From Pipeline To LNG
65
South Stream Looking Weak
66
Black (Sea) Gold Could Provide Relief
66
Shale Gas Showdown
67
Global Industry Overview
70
Appendix
77
Central And Eastern Europe - Regional Appendix
77
Table: Oil Consumption - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 ('000b/d)
77
Table: Oil Consumption - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2022 ('000b/d)
78
Table: Oil Production - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 ('000b/d)
78
Table: Oil Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2022 ('000b/d)
79
Table: Refining Capacity - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 ('000b/d)
80
Table: Refining Capacity - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2022 ('000b/d)
80
Table: Gas Consumption - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 (bcm)
81
Table: Gas Consumption - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2022 (bcm)
82
Table: Gas Production - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 (bcm)
83
Table: Gas Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2022 (bcm)
83
Table: LNG Exports - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 (bcm)
84
Table: Net LNG Exports - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2022 (bcm)
85
Czech Republic - Refined Products Breakdown, 10-year Forecasts
85
Table: Czech Republic Refined Petroleum Products, Production Breakdown, 2012-2017
86
Table: Czech Republic Refined Petroleum Products, Production Breakdown, 2018-2023
87
Table: Czech Republic Refined Petroleum Products, Consumption Breakdown, 2012-2017
88
Table: Czech Republic Refined Petroleum Products, Consumption Breakdown, 2018-2023
89
Table: Czech Republic Refined Petroleum Products, Net Exports Breakdown, 2012-2017
90
Table: Czech Republic Refined Petroleum Products, Net Exports Breakdown, 2018-2023
91
Glossary
92
Table: Glossary Of Terms
92
Methodology
94
Industry Forecast Methodology
94
Source
96
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
96
Table: Bmi's Oil & Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Ratings
98
Table: Weighting
100

The Czech Republic Oil & Gas Report has been researched at source and features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s independent forecasts for Czech Republic including major indicators for oil, gas and LNG, covering all major indicators including reserves, production, consumption, refining capacity, prices, export volumes and values. The report includes full analysis of industry trends and prospects, national and multinational companies and changes in the regulatory environment.

BMI's Czech Republic Oil & Gas Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Czech oil and gas industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent oil and gas industry forecasts for Czech Republic to test consensus views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Czech oil and gas market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Czech oil and gas sector through reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Czech Republic.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and Competitive Landscape Tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI's key forecasts and industry analysis, covering oil and gas reserves, supply, demand and refining, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.

Regional Overview

Regional perspective on size and value of industry sector; comparative rankings by production, refining, imports and exports of oil, gas and LNG.

Business Environment Ratings

BMI's Oil and Gas Business Environment Ratings provide a country-comparative Risk-Reward Ratings index aimed at investors (independents, NOCs, IOCs and oil services companies) in the upstream and downstream markets.

The ratings methodology makes sophisticated use of more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points and is part of BMI's integrated Country Risk-Industry Ratings products.

Oil Market Outlook and Oil Products Outlook

Based on our country coverage of over 99% of global oil and gas production and consumption, BMI provides demand, supply and price forecasts to end-2018 for oil, gas and oil products

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:

Pricing: Oil price (US$/bbl, WTI, Brent, OPEC basket, Urals); Oil products prices (unleaded gasoline, gasoil/diesel, jet/kerosene - US$/bbl) at global hubs

Production, Consumption, Capacity and Reserves: Proven oil reserves (bn barrels), production, consumption, refinery capacity and throughputs (`000b/d); Proven gas reserves (tcm), production and consumption (bcm)

Imports and Exports: Oil exports/imports (`000b/d), value of oil exports/imports (US$mn - BMI base case); Value of oil exports at constant US$50/bbl and constant US$100/bbl (US$mn); Gas exports/imports (bcm), Value of gas exports/imports (US$mn); Value of gas exports/imports at constant US$50/bbl and US$100/bbl (US$mn); Value of petroleum exports/imports (US$mn); Value of petroleum exports/imports at constant US$50/bbl and US$100/bbl (US$mn)

BMI Macroeconomic Forecasts

BMI forecasts to end-2018 for all headline macroeconomic indicators, including real GDP growth, inflation, fiscal balance, trade balance, current account and external debt.

Competitive Landscape

Comparative company analyses by US$ sales, % share of total sales, number of employees, year established, ownership structure, oil production ('000b/d), gas production (bcm), downstream capacity ('000b/d) and % market share.

Company Profiles

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc